10月30日傍晚，古井贡酒披露三季报。面对行业深度调整期的严峻挑战，古井贡酒埋头深耕经营质量、兼顾各方声音，前三季度业绩依旧保持在头部酒企 队列。 而随着这份成绩单出炉，古井贡酒应对白酒周期调整的不变战略决心也再次展现。 面对多重周期叠加的行业内外不利因素，酒企的战略定力面临考验。在白酒行业面临深度调整、消费环境变化，降速发展成为共识的背景下，头部名酒的 发展逻辑，正在从过去追求短期爆发的"速度"，转向长期健康发展的"质量"。 回顾前三季度，古井贡酒坚持名酒定力，视野超越当前周期，继续坚持"全国化、次高端"战略，以"三通工程"为指引，在渠道健康化、品牌国际化、产品 年轻化等方向积极布局，在行业调整期潜心积累长期发展势能。 优先渠道健康助力动销 夯实业绩增长底盘 年份原浆系列，依然是古井贡酒业绩稳定的压舱石。 在行业整体增速放缓的背景下，年份原浆在安徽和周边市场充分体现了其强大的市场竞争力与消费者认可度，尤其古16、古20等次高端产品在安徽省内宴 席市场中表现突出，不仅确保了产品终端售价的稳定，更强化了品牌在中高端市场的话语权。 与此同时，古井贡酒系列等大众价位产品充分发挥 "基本盘" 作用，以高性价比覆盖县域 ...

10月30日傍晚，古井贡酒披露三季报。面对行业深度调整期的严峻挑战，古井贡酒埋头深耕经营质 量、兼顾各方声音，前三季度业绩依旧保持在头部酒企队列。 与此同时，古井贡酒系列等大众价位产品充分发挥 "基本盘" 作用，以高性价比覆盖县域 及乡镇消费市场，满足日常多元化需求，形成了 "高端产品树形象、中端产品提销量、大 众产品保规模" 的全价位产品矩阵。 在今年严峻的外部形势下，古井贡酒依旧能保持稳健表现，与其长期致力于渠道建设分不 开。 而随着这份成绩单出炉，古井贡酒应对白酒周期调整的不变战略决心也再次展现。 面对多重周期叠加的行业内外不利因素，酒企的战略定力面临考验。在白酒行业面临深度 调整、消费环境变化，降速发展成为共识的背景下，头部名酒的发展逻辑，正在从过去追 求短期爆发的"速度"，转向长期健康发展的"质量"。 回 顾 前 三 季 度 ， 古 井 贡 酒 坚 持 名 酒 定 力 ， 视 野 超 越 当 前 周 期 ， 继 续 坚 持 " 全 国 化 、 次 高 端"战略，以"三通工程"为指引，在渠道健康化、品牌国际化、产品年轻化等方向积极布 局，在行业调整期潜心积累长期发展势能。 优先渠道健康助力动销 夯实业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu (000596) with a target price of 300 RMB [1][5][24]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 16.42 billion RMB, down 13.9% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.96 billion RMB, down 16.6% [1][5]. - The third quarter saw a dramatic drop in revenue by 51.6% and net profit by 74.6%, attributed to proactive inventory reduction in response to market conditions [1][5]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival sales, with a focus on channel stability and product innovation [1][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 23.578 billion RMB - 2025E: 19.250 billion RMB - 2026E: 20.018 billion RMB - 2027E: 21.582 billion RMB - Revenue growth rates: -18.4% in 2025E, 4.0% in 2026E, and 7.8% in 2027E [1][5][16]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: 5.518 billion RMB - 2025E: 4.314 billion RMB - 2026E: 4.829 billion RMB - 2027E: 5.283 billion RMB - Net profit growth rates: -21.8% in 2025E, 11.9% in 2026E, and 9.4% in 2027E [1][5][16]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 10.44 RMB - 2025E: 8.16 RMB - 2026E: 9.14 RMB - 2027E: 9.99 RMB [1][5][16]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 15 for 2024A, 19 for 2025E, 17 for 2026E, and 15 for 2027E - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 3.2 for 2024A, 2.9 for 2025E, 2.6 for 2026E, and 2.3 for 2027E [1][5][16]. Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in its core markets, with expectations of gradual recovery in sales performance, particularly in key regions such as Anhui and Jiangsu [1][5]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on channel management and product innovation to navigate current market challenges and position itself for future growth [1][5].

10月30日，古井贡酒（000596.SZ）发布2025年第三季度财报。数据显示，公司前三季度实现营收164.25亿元，归母净利润达39.60亿元，扣非净利润39.08亿 元，在行业深度调整期内展现出较强的经营韧性。作为徽酒龙头，古井贡酒正通过产品结构优化、渠道精细化运营与品牌价值提升，持续推进从"规模扩 张"向"质量驱动"的战略转型。 渠道精进 坚实的财务状况，是古井贡酒能够从容进行战略调整的底气所在。财报显示，公司总资产为382.24亿元，归属于上市公司股东的所有者权益为254.62亿元， 较年初增长3.26%，显示出企业内在价值的稳步提升。更值得一提的是，前三季度经营活动产生的现金流量净额高达26.27亿元，彰显其主营业务强大的"自 我造血"能力，为后续研发、市场与国际化投入提供支撑。 在资金管理方面，公司展现出审慎而专业的运营能力。前三季度将49.31亿元资金配置于国债逆回购等低风险金融产品，在保障资金安全的同时实现资产保 值增值。此外，公司在建工程较期初显著减少39.19%，主要源于智能化酿造等重大项目的陆续投产转固，标志着公司产能升级进入新阶段。 在确保财务健康的基础上，古井贡酒持续推进产品创新与 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gujinggongjiu's Q3 report shows significant declines in revenue and net profit, reflecting broader challenges in the liquor industry, with a shift towards high-quality growth amid ongoing adjustments [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Gujinggongjiu reported revenue of 16.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.87%, and a net profit of 3.96 billion yuan, down 16.57% [1][2]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 2.545 billion yuan, a substantial decline of 51.65%, and a net profit of 299 million yuan, down 74.56% [2]. - The basic earnings per share for the first three quarters were 7.49 yuan, a decrease of 16.59% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Expenses - For the first three quarters, Gujinggongjiu's operating costs were 3.307 billion yuan, down 14.54%, while sales expenses were 4.508 billion yuan, down 6.53% [2]. - R&D expenses increased by 20.58% to 622 million yuan, indicating a commitment to innovation despite overall financial pressures [2]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, transitioning from rapid growth to a focus on high-quality growth, with performance declines becoming a consensus among industry players [2]. - Despite the challenging environment, Gujinggongjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu have shown resilience due to their scale and comprehensive product offerings [2]. Competitor Performance - Yingjia Gongjiu reported a revenue decline of 18.09% to 4.516 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 24.67% to 1.511 billion yuan for the first three quarters [3]. - Kuozi Jiao experienced over a 20% decline in both revenue and net profit, facing challenges with fixed sales and management costs [4]. - Jinzhongzi Jiu was the only company unable to achieve profitability, reporting a revenue of 628 million yuan, down 22.08%, and a net loss of 1 billion yuan, which widened by 0.97% year-on-year [5]. However, it showed positive growth in Q3 with a revenue increase of 3.73% and a net profit increase of 74.42% [5].

金风送爽，亳州的空气里弥漫起醇厚的酒香。9月19日，第十二届古井贡酒・年份原浆秋季开酿仪式启幕。亳州主会场通过5G 技术与滁州、咸宁、茅台镇 三地实时连线，古井贡酒、黄鹤楼酒、明光酒业、九酝酒业同步开启酿造进程——"四地同酿"，秋酿启新章。 十二年前，古井贡酒首创秋酿仪式，将这份历史积淀转化为可见可感的文化符号，让九酝酒法等非遗技艺在当代焕发新生，更铸就了品牌不可复制的竞争 力。 如果说历史是古井贡酒的根脉，那么创新便是其蓬勃生长的枝叶。本届秋酿仪式的诸多突破，正是传统与现代碰撞的生动注脚。其中最引人瞩目的，莫过 于秋酿与"2025世界制造业大会"的深度联动。在这场以"智造世界・创造美好"为主题的全球盛会上，古井贡酒通过"透明工厂"系统，向世界展现了"让传 统的更原始、让现代的更智能"的实践成果：智能园区内96% 的设备实现全联网，从一粒粮食到一滴美酒，每道工序都有数字把关，区块链技术构建起全 链条溯源体系。这并非对传统的背离，而是以现代科技守护古法精髓。 正如白酒行业分析师蔡学飞所言，我们当立足过去观现在、立足现在望未来。对中国白酒行业而言，智能制造是必然趋势。随着工业水平提升与人民生活 质量改善，食品安全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Gujing Gongjiu, reported a slight increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in a challenging market, but underlying issues such as weak growth, structural imbalances, and external expansion challenges are evident [1][6][7] Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.54%, and a net profit of 3.66 billion yuan, up 2.49% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter saw a significant decline in revenue to 4.73 billion yuan, down 14.23% year-on-year, and net profit dropped to 1.33 billion yuan, down 11.63% [2] - The company's net profit margin improved to 26.38%, up 0.50 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced sales expenses [3] Product Structure - The company experienced a "volume increase, price decrease" trend, with total sales volume reaching 81,400 tons, up 10.67%, but the average ex-factory price fell by 8.22% to 167,500 yuan per ton [3] - The core product "Nianfen Yuanjiang" generated revenue of 10.96 billion yuan, with a sales volume increase of 10.80%, but the price per ton decreased by 8.31% to 235,200 yuan [3] Regional Performance - The company’s revenue from the Central China region was 12.30 billion yuan, accounting for 88.60% of total revenue, reflecting strong brand presence in its home market [4] - Revenue from the North China region fell by 27.04% to 0.81 billion yuan, and South China revenue decreased by 5.84% to 0.77 billion yuan, indicating challenges in expanding beyond its home market [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on online sales, which reached 0.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.19%, while offline sales declined by 0.67% [5] - New product launches aimed at younger consumers, such as the 26° "Light Gu20," reflect the company's efforts to innovate and adapt to market changes [5] Overall Assessment - The company's performance shows a complex situation of apparent stability but underlying concerns regarding sustainable growth, reliance on internal adjustments, and challenges in expanding its market presence [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in total revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, despite facing demand pressures and a decline in revenue in the second quarter [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 3.66 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 4.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%, with net profit at 1.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [1]. Brand and Product Performance - For H1 2025, revenue from the flagship product, Year Original, was 10.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% (volume +10.8%, price -8.3%) [2]. - Revenue from Gujingongjiu was 1.18 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year (volume +9.3%, price -12.5%) [2]. - Revenue from Huanghelou and others was 1.50 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year (volume +12.1%, price -4.8%) [2]. Regional Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from North China was 0.81 billion yuan, down 27.0% year-on-year, and from South China was 0.77 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year [2]. - Revenue from Central China was 12.30 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, indicating a focus on strengthening the company's position in this advantageous market [2]. Channel Performance - Online revenue in H1 2025 was 0.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, while offline revenue was 13.31 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year [3]. - The company maintained a positive trend in cost-effectiveness, with a net profit margin increase of 0.8 percentage points in Q2 2025 [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - In Q2 2025, cash sales amounted to 6.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, and operating cash flow was 2.31 billion yuan, up 48.4% year-on-year [3]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the company's contract liabilities were 1.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.5 billion yuan from the previous quarter and down 36% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a slight improvement in demand due to upcoming festive seasons, benefiting from refined channel management and strong brand presence in the province [4]. - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downward, with expected revenues of 23.01 billion yuan, 24.16 billion yuan, and 26.57 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -2.4%, +5.0%, and +10.0% respectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, despite facing challenges in the broader liquor industry, indicating resilience in its pricing strategy and market share growth in its home province [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, revenue reached 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.54%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.66 billion yuan, up 2.49% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.73 billion yuan, down 14.23% year-on-year, and net profit was 1.33 billion yuan, down 11.63% year-on-year [1]. - The sales net profit margin increased by 1.19 percentage points to 29.33% in Q2 2025, while the sales gross margin decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 80.24% [2]. Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is characterized by reduced volume, declining prices, and high inventory pressure, with the 100-300 yuan price range being the main driver of sales [1]. - The company maintained a strong market share in its home province, with revenue growth in Central China at 3.60%, while North China and South China saw declines of 27.04% and 5.84%, respectively [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on innovation and market expansion, launching new products aimed at younger consumers and enhancing its product matrix in the affordable price segment [2]. - The long-term strategy emphasizes national expansion and targeting the mid-to-high-end market, with plans to strengthen channel development and market presence [2]. Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a recovery in net profit for 2025-2027, with projections of 5.60 billion, 6.33 billion, and 7.02 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a strong brand and channel synergy [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu, with a target price of 300 RMB [1]. Core Views - The company is navigating industry cyclicality with a focus on steady growth, emphasizing long-term high-quality development while actively capturing market share [1]. - The management acknowledges the current pressures in the liquor industry but believes that the unique product attributes of liquor allow it to withstand economic cycles [1]. - The company is committed to enhancing operational efficiency and market penetration, focusing on internal management optimization and external market expansion [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 23,578 million RMB - 2025E: 26,086 million RMB (16.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: 28,813 million RMB (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: 31,758 million RMB (10.5% YoY growth) [1] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 5,518 million RMB - 2025E: 6,143 million RMB (20.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: 6,862 million RMB (11.3% YoY growth) - 2027E: 7,678 million RMB (11.7% YoY growth) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 10.44 RMB - 2025E: 11.62 RMB - 2026E: 12.98 RMB - 2027E: 14.53 RMB [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 13 times, indicating attractive valuation [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on practical operations and enhancing product offerings, particularly in the mid-range price segment, to drive growth [1]. - Management is implementing a four-pronged strategy to alleviate channel pressures, including boosting sales, reducing inventory, expanding channels, and stabilizing prices [1]. - The company aims to build a robust marketing team and enhance product competitiveness through improved pricing strategies and product quality [1].