Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows signs of stabilization in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 12, with an overall price increase after a period of decline, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1]. Price Trends - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,925 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 7 yuan from the previous day, suggesting a slowdown in the downward price trend [1]. - The market exhibits a mixed pattern of price changes, with some products increasing in price while others decrease [1]. Price Increases - Notable price increases include: - Guojiao 1573, up 10 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Gujinggong 20, up 7 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, up 5 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang, up 4 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang 20, up 1 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Shujian Jiananspring, stable compared to the previous day [1]. Price Decreases - Significant price declines include: - Feitian Moutai, down 8 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation, down 8 yuan per bottle, falling below 800 yuan for the first time in a month [1][3]. - Boutique Moutai, down 3 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Xijiu Junpin, down 1 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The stabilization of prices for most core products is the primary factor driving the overall price recovery in the market [1].

东吴证券研报指出，古井贡酒周期底部报表出清可期，动销韧性强复苏第一梯队有望。从行业节奏来 看，2026年动销抓手仍是大众消费场景，同时从古井自身节奏来看，深度调整期管理团队稳定有助于销 售策略连续性更利于穿越周期；中期而言，古井省内优势稳固，坚定"全国化、次高端"战略，省外规模 化市场有望培育成型和复制。基于短期和中期判断，古井在白酒中投资排序靠前，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu [1] Core Views - Gujing Gongjiu is expected to navigate through the current industry adjustment phase, with a focus on stabilizing its management team and leveraging its brand and market advantages to recover sales in the long term [12][31] - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in consumer demand, particularly in the mass market segment, as it has a strong brand presence and distribution channels [27][31] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue projections for Gujing Gongjiu are as follows: 2023A: 20,254 million, 2024A: 23,578 million, 2025E: 18,705 million, 2026E: 19,146 million, 2027E: 21,119 million [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: 2023A: 4,589 million, 2024A: 5,517 million, 2025E: 4,243 million, 2026E: 4,448 million, 2027E: 5,004 million [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: 2023A: 8.68, 2024A: 10.44, 2025E: 8.03, 2026E: 8.42, 2027E: 9.47 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected as: 2023A: 15.66, 2024A: 13.03, 2025E: 16.94, 2026E: 16.16, 2027E: 14.37 [1] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the white liquor industry has entered a period of adjustment since 2021, with significant revenue and profit declines observed in major companies during 2025 [12][13] - Gujing Gongjiu's management team has remained stable during this challenging period, reflecting support from local government for the company's stability [12][18] Long-term Outlook - Gujing Gongjiu is expected to leverage its strong brand and market position to recover and grow, particularly in the mass market segment, as consumer demand is anticipated to rebound [27][31] - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of penetrating surrounding markets while maintaining strong control in its home province of Anhui [31][56] Competitive Advantages - Gujing Gongjiu is recognized as a leading brand among the "Old Eight Famous Liquors" and has a competitive edge in both brand recognition and distribution channels [32][39] - The company has implemented a "Three Connections Project" to enhance its distribution efficiency and market penetration [46][49]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a rebound in retail prices for major products after a period of decline, indicating a stabilization in market sentiment [1]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten liquor products increased to 8998 yuan, up by 16 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Major products showing price increases include: - Wuliangye Pu Wuyi 8th generation: up 8 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573: up 7 yuan per bottle - Guqingong 20 and Xijiu Junpin: up 6 yuan per bottle each - Qinghua Fen 20: up 3 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: up 1 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of increases - Shuijing Jiananshun: price remained stable [1][5]. Price Declines - Products experiencing price declines include: - Feitian Moutai: down 7 yuan per bottle - Boutique Moutai: down 6 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Lang: down 2 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Data Collection - The data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of the market [2]. New Sales Channels - The launch of new sales channels for Moutai products, including the iMoutai platform selling Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and Boutique Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle, is expected to influence market prices significantly [2][3].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market has seen a rebound in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 9, following a period of decline, with an overall increase of 16 yuan in total price for a packaged set of these products, now totaling 8998 yuan [1][6][7] Price Trends - The market is experiencing a general upward trend, with notable price increases for several products: - Wuliangye Pu Wubai Dai increased by 8 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573 rose by 7 yuan per bottle - Gu Qing Gong Gu 20 and Xijiu Junpin both increased by 6 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Fen 20 saw a rise of 3 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ increased by 1 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price increases - Meanwhile, prices for Feitian Moutai and Premium Moutai decreased by 7 yuan and 6 yuan per bottle respectively [1][7][10] Data Collection Methodology - The "Liquor Price Reference" collects data from approximately 200 sampling points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide an objective and traceable representation of the market prices for well-known liquors [2][8] Market Influences - The launch of new sales channels for Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and Premium Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle on the iMoutai platform is expected to have a significant impact on the market prices for these products [2][8] Product Launches - iMoutai announced adjustments to the release schedule for Premium Moutai and other products, with specific purchase limits set for consumers starting January 9, 2023, and additional products being introduced on January 10, 2023 [3][8]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market has seen a rebound in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 9, following a period of decline, with an overall increase of 16 yuan, bringing the total price for a package of these products to 8998 yuan [1][6]. Price Trends - The market is experiencing a general upward trend, with notable price increases for several products: - Wuliangye Pu Wubai Dai increased by 8 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573 rose by 7 yuan per bottle - Gu Qing Gong Gu 20 and Xijiu Junpin both increased by 6 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Fen 20 saw a rise of 3 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ increased by 1 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price increases - Meanwhile, prices for Feitian Moutai and Premium Moutai decreased by 7 yuan and 6 yuan per bottle, respectively [1][7][10]. Data Collection Methodology - The "Liquor Price Reference" collects data from approximately 200 sampling points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable pricing data for well-known liquor products [2][8]. Market Impact of New Sales Channels - The launch of new sales channels for Feitian Moutai at 1499 yuan per bottle and Premium Moutai at 2299 yuan per bottle is expected to influence the market prices significantly, with the potential for a magnetic effect on retail prices [2][8]. Product Launches and Adjustments - iMoutai announced adjustments to the release schedule for Premium Moutai and other products, with specific purchase limits and scheduled release dates throughout the year, including key periods such as the Spring Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market has experienced a rebound in retail prices for the top ten products after a period of decline, indicating a stabilization in market sentiment and pricing recovery [1]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for a bundled package of the top ten liquor products is 8998 yuan, reflecting an increase of 16 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Most products have shown signs of stabilization after reaching temporary low points, with a general upward trend in prices observed [1]. Notable Price Increases - Wuliangye Pu Wubai (五粮液普五八代) saw the most significant price increase, rising by 8 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Guojiao 1573 (国窖1573) increased by 7 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Both Guqingong 20 (古井贡古20) and Xijiu Junpin (习酒君品) rose by 6 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghua Fen 20 (青花汾20) increased by 3 yuan per bottle, while Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ (洋河梦之蓝M6+) saw a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price increases [1][4]. Price Decreases - Feitian Moutai (飞天茅台) experienced a decrease of 7 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Premium Moutai (精品茅台) dropped by 670 yuan per bottle, indicating a significant decline [3]. - Qinghua Lang (青花郎) fell by 2 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Sentiment - The overall market is showing a rebound with most brands experiencing price recovery and moderate volume increases, suggesting a calming of market sentiment compared to previous days [1].

证券之星消息，1月8日白酒板块较上一交易日下跌0.64%，古井贡酒领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4082.98，下跌0.07%。深证成指报收于13959.48，下跌0.51%。白酒板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600696 | *ST岩石 | = 477.49万 | 24.04% | -9.06万 | -0.46% | -468.43万 | -23.58% | | 002646 天佑德酒 | | 70.31万 | 1.66% | -338.89万 | -8.01% | 268.58万 | 6.35% | | 600197 | 伊力特 | -162.35万 | -4.22% | -364.81万 | -9.47% | 527.16万 | 13.69% | | 603369 | 今世缘 | -204.99万 | -0.83% | 587.93万 | 2.39% | -382.94万 ...

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with 2025 being particularly challenging due to rational consumption and ongoing anti-corruption efforts, prompting companies to reassess their market strategies [1][4] Group 1: Market Conditions - Many liquor businesses, including those in Tianjin, reported losses in 2025, with sales figures dropping significantly compared to previous years, indicating a severe market contraction [2][4] - The average retail price of major liquor brands has decreased by 30% in 2025, with 99% of premium liquor prices falling [3][4] - The industry is facing a deep adjustment period, with many companies experiencing double-digit declines in revenue and net profit in the third quarter of 2025 [4] Group 2: Changes in Business Strategy - Liquor companies are shifting their focus from traditional sales models to consumer-centric approaches, emphasizing supply-demand matching and price balance [6][8] - There is a notable trend of companies avoiding long-term contracts with suppliers to mitigate financial risks associated with unsold inventory [3][4] - New growth models are emerging, with companies like Moutai and Fenjiu focusing on consumer engagement and exploring new consumption scenarios [6][7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Preferences - The demand for liquor is declining, particularly in corporate gifting and festive occasions, leading to increased competition and pressure on distributors [3][5] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards lower-alcohol products and innovative offerings to attract younger consumers and diversify market reach [7][8] - The implementation of new regulations against wasteful consumption has further altered drinking scenarios, compelling companies to adapt their strategies [7][8]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a downturn, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a decline of 1.01% as of the latest report [1] - Major stocks in the sector, particularly leading liquor and dairy companies, are facing significant drops, with Yili Co. falling over 4% and other companies like Kweichow Moutai and Gujing Gongjiu also declining [1] - The current consumption industry is entering a strategic opportunity period supported by policies, with a focus on domestic demand as a core economic task, which is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector [1][3] Group 2 - Pacific Securities notes that upcoming policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are anticipated to improve consumption, particularly in high-end luxury goods, which may positively impact the broader consumer market [3] - The food and beverage sector's valuation is at a historical low, with the Huabao ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 20.27 times, indicating a favorable entry point for long-term investments [3] - The liquor industry is nearing a bottom in its fundamentals, with major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye implementing market-driven adjustments, suggesting potential for recovery in sales during the 2026 Spring Festival [3][4] Group 3 - Citic Construction points out that some food and beverage stocks are expected to exceed performance expectations due to their differentiated advantages, despite a temporary slowdown in revenue growth [4] - The liquor sector is seeing major companies managing inventory and optimizing channel structures, which may lead to improved profitability despite short-term challenges [4] - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF is heavily weighted towards leading high-end liquor stocks and also includes significant positions in dairy and beverage companies, making it a key asset for investors in the sector [4]