Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.9% on January 13, with *ST Rock leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4138.76, down 0.64%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14169.4, down 1.37% [1] - Major liquor stocks showed mixed performance, with Wuliangye down 0.51% to 108.00 and Moutai down 0.86% to 1411.00 [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 8.17 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 3.19 billion yuan [2] - The top stocks by net inflow included Wuliangye with a net inflow of 46.20 million yuan from institutional investors, while *ST Rock had a net outflow of 38.73 million yuan [3] - Retail investors showed a preference for stocks like Moutai and Gujing Gongjiu, with net inflows of 15.08 million yuan and 15.08 million yuan respectively [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a decline in A-share market for liquor stocks, particularly with major brands like Moutai planning to lower the prices of several products [1] - Major liquor stocks such as Shui Jing Fang, Gu Jing Gong Jiu, and others fell over 1%, while Moutai experienced a slight decline of 0.7% [1] - Moutai has reportedly confirmed a price reduction for certain products, including premium Moutai and Moutai 1935, affecting the contract prices for distributors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market has experienced a significant rebound in retail prices for the top ten products, indicating a recovery in market sentiment after a period of decline [1]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten liquor products reached 8969 yuan, an increase of 44 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The market showed a broad upward trend, with most core products experiencing price increases, reflecting restored market confidence [1]. Individual Product Performance - Qinghua Lang saw the most substantial increase, rising by 14 yuan per bottle [1]. - Xijiu Junpin increased by 11 yuan per bottle, showing a strong rebound [1]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation ended its decline with a price increase of 7 yuan per bottle [1]. - Gujing Gonggu 20 rose by 5 yuan per bottle, while Jingpin Moutai increased by 4 yuan per bottle [1]. - Feitian Moutai and Qinghua Fen 20 both saw a rise of 3 yuan per bottle [1]. - The only products that experienced price declines were Guojiao 1573, which fell by 3 yuan, and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, which decreased by 1 yuan [1][4]. Market Data Sources - The data was collected from approximately 200 points across major regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the remaining brands in the sauce liquor sector will thrive, while mass-market products are expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival [2][8]. - The dairy sector is showing signs of improvement, with a potential rebound in raw milk prices and a narrowing supply-demand gap, which could lead to increased demand for processed dairy products [6]. - The beverage and snack categories are experiencing sustained growth, with specific segments like energy drinks and konjac snacks showing remarkable sales increases despite overall declines in the snack market [6]. - The report highlights a significant shift in the sauce liquor industry, where pricing strategies are becoming more pragmatic, with a new growth level emerging around the 200 yuan price point as lower-tier brands face market exit pressures [6][8]. - The report suggests that leading liquor companies should maintain operational stability during this industry downturn, focusing on balanced investments in base liquor to prepare for future market recovery [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 44,935.30 billion yuan, representing 3.54% of the market [3]. - The circulating market value stands at 43,859.19 billion yuan, accounting for 4.28% of the total market [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is 1.3%, with a relative performance decline of 2.2% compared to the benchmark [4]. - Over the past 12 months, the industry has seen a relative performance decline of 25.2% [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - Dairy products are expected to benefit from a favorable pricing environment and improved supply dynamics, with major companies actively preparing for the Spring Festival [6]. - The beverage sector is witnessing growth in specific categories, with leading brands launching targeted marketing campaigns for the holiday season [6]. - The sauce liquor market is undergoing a consolidation phase, with a focus on brand strength and market share recovery among leading companies [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a rise of 0.79% on January 12, with *ST Rock leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.75% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of *ST Rock was 3.20, with a gain of 4.92% and a trading volume of 132,400 shares, amounting to 41.70 million yuan [1] - Gujing Gongjiu closed at 141.73, up 2.94%, with a trading volume of 48,000 shares and a transaction value of 675 million yuan [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 119.29, increasing by 2.08%, with a trading volume of 129,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.54 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 403 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 29.32 million yuan [1] - Wuliangye had a main fund net inflow of 267 million yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 87.06 million yuan [2] - Luzhou Laojiao recorded a main fund net inflow of 85.62 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 34.07 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The entry of Gujinggongjiu into the scattered liquor market marks a significant shift for one of the eight major liquor brands, aiming to connect directly with consumers and adapt to changing market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Strategy - Gujinggongjiu's entry into the scattered liquor market is seen as a proactive measure to meet the diverse needs of consumers in a rational consumption environment [1] - The "Dajiu Pu" business model allows for direct community engagement, lowering the barriers for purchasing liquor through flexible product specifications [1] - The introduction of unique low-alcohol products is expected to attract a younger consumer demographic [1] Group 2: Consumer Trends - Historical sales data from popular brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Jian Nan Chun indicate a willingness among consumers to experiment with premium liquors [1] - There is an anticipation for more innovative approaches in product offerings and consumer engagement from renowned liquor brands in the future [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to have an EPS of 8.15 yuan in 2025 and 8.44 yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 17 and 16 times the current stock price [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its solid brand foundation within the province and ongoing strategic market development outside the province [1]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a price increase of 0.34% as of the report time [1] - Major liquor stocks such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu have surged over 2%, while Wuliangye and Yanghe have increased by more than 1% [1] - Kweichow Moutai has implemented a strategy to stabilize the market by directly reaching consumers through its iMoutai platform, which has gained over 2.7 million new users [1] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai's recent dealer communication emphasized three principles: preventing speculation, adapting supply and demand, and stabilizing the market [2] - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with the PE ratio of the Huabao ETF at 20.16, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [2] - The white liquor industry is expected to reach a turning point as major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye implement market strategies ahead of the Spring Festival [3] Group 3 - The iMoutai platform's launch of the full range of Moutai products is expected to stabilize prices and improve market management [3] - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [3] - Investors can also consider the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked fund for exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company has opened its first "Gujing Liquor Shop" in Bozhou, Anhui Province, on December 12, 2025, marking its entry into the scattered liquor market. This transformation is seen as beneficial, as it allows the company to provide high-quality products at competitive prices to meet diverse consumer demands in a rational consumption environment [2][15]. - The new shop offers a variety of liquor options, including different types of Baijiu and local specialty wines, with flexible pricing starting from 2.9 yuan for 50ml to 29.9 yuan [6][15]. - The company aims to tap into the younger consumer demographic by lowering the barriers to purchase through community-based sales and offering unique low-alcohol products [2][15]. - The company has significantly increased its production capacity over the past decade, with output rising from 65,700 tons in 2014 to 128,000 tons in 2024, and plans to reach an annual capacity of 150,000 tons [18][23]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will be 8.15 yuan and 8.44 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17 and 16 times [23]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The opening of the "Gujing Liquor Shop" represents the company's first foray into the scattered liquor market, providing a range of products at flexible pricing [6][15]. Market Performance - The company is positioned as a leading Baijiu brand in Anhui, leveraging its strong brand recognition to innovate and connect with consumers [2][15]. Production Capacity - The company has expanded its production capacity significantly, which supports its entry into the scattered liquor market and aligns with consumer demand for high-quality products [18][23]. Consumer Demand - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards rational consumption, with a growing preference for quality and brand over low prices in the liquor market [23].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows signs of stabilization in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 12, with an overall price increase after a period of decline, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1]. Price Trends - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8,925 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 7 yuan from the previous day, suggesting a slowdown in the downward price trend [1]. - The market exhibits a mixed pattern of price changes, with some products increasing in price while others decrease [1]. Price Increases - Notable price increases include: - Guojiao 1573, up 10 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Gujinggong 20, up 7 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+, up 5 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang, up 4 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Qinghualang 20, up 1 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Shujian Jiananspring, stable compared to the previous day [1]. Price Decreases - Significant price declines include: - Feitian Moutai, down 8 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation, down 8 yuan per bottle, falling below 800 yuan for the first time in a month [1][3]. - Boutique Moutai, down 3 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - Xijiu Junpin, down 1 yuan per bottle [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The stabilization of prices for most core products is the primary factor driving the overall price recovery in the market [1].

东吴证券研报指出，古井贡酒周期底部报表出清可期，动销韧性强复苏第一梯队有望。从行业节奏来 看，2026年动销抓手仍是大众消费场景，同时从古井自身节奏来看，深度调整期管理团队稳定有助于销 售策略连续性更利于穿越周期；中期而言，古井省内优势稳固，坚定"全国化、次高端"战略，省外规模 化市场有望培育成型和复制。基于短期和中期判断，古井在白酒中投资排序靠前，维持"买入"评级。 ...