Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye is "Recommended" [1][5][8] Core Views - Wuliangye reported stable revenue growth with a 4.2% year-on-year increase in revenue for 1H25, reaching 52.8 billion yuan, and a 2.3% increase in net profit, totaling 19.5 billion yuan [5][8] - The company maintains a stable contract liability of 10.1 billion yuan, reflecting consistent operational performance [8] - Despite a slight decline in profitability, the company is expected to continue returning value to shareholders with a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% and a minimum of 20 billion yuan in dividends from 2024 to 2027 [8] Financial Summary - For 1H25, Wuliangye's product revenue breakdown shows the main product generated 41 billion yuan, up 4.6%, while other liquor products and other businesses contributed 8.1 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively [8] - The company’s gross margin for 2Q25 was 74.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decline in product structure [8] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 30.8 billion yuan, 31.1 billion yuan, and 32.8 billion yuan, respectively [8][11] Revenue and Profitability Projections - Projected revenue for Wuliangye is expected to grow from 89.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 97.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.1% [11] - The net profit is projected to decline slightly in 2025 to 30.8 billion yuan, before recovering to 32.8 billion yuan by 2027 [11] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 76.3% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to be around 33.6% to 33.7% during the same period [11] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout, ensuring that shareholders receive consistent returns, with a commitment to distribute at least 20 billion yuan annually from 2024 to 2027 [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - In the context of increasing uncertainty in the liquor industry and intense competition, the role of industry leaders like Wuliangye becomes increasingly significant as a stabilizing force and a market indicator [1][3][14]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Wuliangye reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.492 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.28% [1]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - 2025 is designated as the "Year of Marketing Execution Improvement" for Wuliangye, focusing on deepening marketing reforms and enhancing channel construction to solidify market foundations [4][6]. - The company has restructured its brand division into a liquor sales company, implementing a regional responsibility system to improve marketing decision-making efficiency [6]. - Wuliangye has expanded its "Three Stores One" network, adding 242 new stores and increasing product distribution significantly, with a notable rise in terminal orders [7]. Consumer Engagement and Innovation - Wuliangye is adapting to changing consumer trends, particularly targeting younger demographics with innovative marketing and product offerings, such as the launch of the 29° Wuliangye "One Glance" product [8][10]. - The company has opened new experiential spaces that blend liquor with cultural experiences, aiming to engage younger consumers through social and experiential marketing [10]. Research and Development - Wuliangye has invested 210 million yuan in R&D in the first half of the year, marking a 31% increase, and is focusing on technological innovations to enhance production efficiency [11]. Brand Development and International Presence - The company is actively participating in high-profile international events to enhance its brand influence and has launched various cultural initiatives to strengthen its brand image [12]. Long-term Strategy - Wuliangye maintains a long-term perspective, focusing on solidifying its growth trajectory and providing greater certainty for the industry amid cyclical challenges [14].

Core Insights - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that Wuliangye's Q2 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reached 15.83 billion yuan and 4.63 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year change of +0.1% and -7.6% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company maintained stable revenue despite external pressures, while profit growth turned negative, aligning with previous expectations [1] - The top five distributors accounted for a significant 60% of sales, indicating a shift towards larger distributors [1] - The gross profit margin faced pressure due to increased expenses, leading to a decline in profitability [1] Group 2: Market Strategy and Outlook - The company is undergoing adjustments and is focusing on the upcoming double festival pressure test [1] - Product lines such as 1618 and 39-degree offerings have shown stable growth in the banquet market, with expectations for incremental contributions after the establishment of a dedicated team in the second half of the year [1] - For Q3, the company anticipates a greater emphasis on price control, with expected adjustments in financial reports being larger than in Q2 [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast - Considering the H1 performance and outlook for the second half of the year, the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 7.56, 7.63, and 7.63 yuan, respectively [1] - The company continues to maintain a "strongly recommended" rating despite the adjustments [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a stable revenue performance in Q2 2025, achieving revenue and net profit of 15.83 billion yuan and 4.63 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.1% and -7.6% [1] - The first half of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 4.2% and a net profit increase of 2.3%, indicating a shift towards volume sales at the expense of price [2][3] - The company is undergoing adjustments in response to market pressures, particularly with the upcoming holiday season [3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company maintained a revenue of 15.83 billion yuan, while net profit decreased to 4.63 billion yuan, aligning with previous expectations [1] - For H1 2025, total revenue reached 52.77 billion yuan, with net profit at 19.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and 2.3% respectively [1] - Cash flow remained positive, with cash receipts from sales in Q2 amounting to 31.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0% [1] Sales and Distribution - The top five distributors accounted for 60% of total sales in H1 2025, significantly up from 24.1% in the previous year [2] - Revenue from the company's flagship product, Wuliangye, reached 41.0 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a volume increase of 12.7% but a price decrease of 7.2% [2] - The company reported a decline in the number of distributors and specialty stores, with 2,510 distributors and 1,768 specialty stores, a decrease of 20 and 18 respectively [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 74.7%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price declines in Wuliangye and related products [3] - The company experienced increased operational costs, with sales expense ratio rising to 18.9% due to higher promotional, storage, and logistics costs [3] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 29.3%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a decline in profitability [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to focus on price control and report adjustments in the upcoming quarters, particularly in light of the holiday season [3] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards to 7.56, 7.63, and 7.63 yuan respectively, while maintaining a strong buy recommendation [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the white liquor industry as "Positive" (First Time) [1] Core Viewpoints - The current moment is seen as a potential starting point for absolute returns in the white liquor sector, considering the cyclical learning effects [4] - The white liquor industry has returned to cyclical characteristics, with fund holdings dropping to levels seen in 2017, and the food and beverage sector's overweight ratio has decreased significantly from a peak of 11% in 2019 to 3.2% [4][13] - The valuation of the white liquor sector has declined by 72% over the past four years, indicating a slow and steady adjustment process, unlike previous cycles [4][18] - Historical analysis suggests that the bottoming out of the white liquor index occurred after the 2014 Spring Festival, which is anticipated to happen again during the current cycle [5][22] Summary by Sections 1. Decline in White Liquor Holdings and Return to Cyclical Stock Characteristics - Fund holdings in the white liquor sector have decreased to 2017 levels, indicating a shift back to cyclical stock characteristics [10][13] - The overweight ratio of the food and beverage sector has significantly decreased, reflecting a gradual exit of funds focused on long-term value [4][13] 2. Review of Previous Cycle's Bottoming Characteristics - The previous cycle's bottoming process involved several stages, including a decline in dealer profitability, reduced receivables, and a subsequent recovery in real demand [4][18] - The current cycle is expected to show a similar pattern, with the learning effect potentially leading to an earlier inflection point for absolute returns [4][18] 3. Upcoming Investment Timing - The report suggests monitoring for signs of risk clearance in financial statements and early inventory reduction among dealers as indicators for potential investment opportunities [4][6] - Specific companies to watch include Luzhou Laojiao for its high dividend yield and Yingjia Gongjiu for its low valuation and inventory clearance [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is navigating challenges and seeking practical changes, focusing on enhancing marketing execution and channel transformation [8] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 52.77 billion and 19.49 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.2% and 2.3% [8] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to a slower recovery in high-end demand, with net profit estimates revised to 31.6 billion, 32.0 billion, and 34.9 billion RMB [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023A is projected at 83.27 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 12.58% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is estimated at 30.21 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.19% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 7.78 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 16.27 [1] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the company achieved 49.12 billion RMB in liquor revenue, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [8] - The revenue from the flagship product, Wuliangye, grew by 4.6% in H1 2025, with volume and price changes of +12.7% and -7.2%, respectively [8] - Other liquor categories saw a revenue increase of 2.7% in H1 2025, with significant volume growth of 58.8% but a price decline of 35.3% [8] Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin decreased by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in H1 2025, primarily due to pressure on gross margins and taxes [8] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 82.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous year [8] - Sales expenses remained stable, with a slight decrease in advertising costs and an increase in promotional expenses [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on channel restructuring and enhancing marketing management through specialized sales companies [8] - In H1 2025, the company added 242 new stores, filling gaps in 18 counties, and developed 60 corporate clients [8] - The company aims to explore new marketing models and resource development to meet emerging demands and scenarios [8]

上 市 公 司 2025 年 08 月 28 日 五粮液 (000858) ——业绩符合预期，产品结构下移 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 126.62 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 178.76/106.33 | | 市净率 | 3.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.54 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 491,469 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,800.35/12,295.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 36.19 | | 资产负债率% | 25.48 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 3,882/3,881 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-27 09-27 10-27 11-27 12-27 01-27 02-27 03-27 04-27 05-27 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 166.40 [1][2][9] Core Views - The company has shown a steady performance with total revenue of RMB 527.7 billion and net profit of RMB 194.9 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.2% and 2.3% respectively [6][9] - The company is focusing on marketing reforms and enhancing brand value, with the introduction of new products expected to contribute to revenue growth in the future [6][9] - Despite facing challenges in Q2 due to external factors, the company remains committed to its strategic goals and aims for high-quality development [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, total revenue was RMB 527.7 billion, with a net profit of RMB 194.9 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and 2.3% respectively [6][9] - The company’s Q2 revenue was RMB 158.3 billion, with net profit at RMB 46.3 billion, indicating a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, but a decline in net profit by 7.6% [6][9] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the main brand, Wuliangye, reached RMB 410.0 billion, while series liquor revenue was RMB 81.2 billion, with respective year-on-year growth of 4.6% and 2.7% [7] - The company has expanded its distribution network, adding 7,990 new retail terminals and successfully developing 60 corporate clients [7] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 76.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to an increase in lower-priced product sales [8] - The net profit margin for the first half was 36.9%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [8] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of RMB 913.0 billion, RMB 952.3 billion, and RMB 1,002.2 billion respectively, with growth rates of 2.4%, 4.3%, and 5.2% [9] - The expected EPS for 2025 is RMB 8.32, with a PE ratio of 20x based on the company's strong brand positioning [9]

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye's revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 reached historical highs, but growth rates have dropped to single digits, indicating a significant shift in the industry dynamics [1][4]. Company Performance - Wuliangye achieved a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, and a net profit of 19.492 billion yuan, up 2.28% [1][3]. - Other companies like Jinhui Wine reported revenue and profit growth of 0.31% and 1.12%, respectively [5]. - In contrast, most other liquor companies reported negative revenue growth, with many experiencing double-digit declines [5][6]. Industry Trends - A total of 15 liquor companies have released their semi-annual reports, with only three showing positive growth in both revenue and profit [3][5]. - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, with over two-thirds of companies expected to report declines in both revenue and profit [7]. - The beer industry has shown better performance compared to the liquor sector in the first half of 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Wuliangye [2][6] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its financial performance, with H1 2025 revenue of 52.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit of 19.49 billion yuan, up 2.3% [2][6] - The target price is set at 215 yuan, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential and dividend support [2][6] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing marketing execution and operational efficiency, which is expected to drive future growth [6] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 89.175 billion yuan, with a decline of 5.1% in 2025 to 84.646 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 87.270 billion yuan in 2026 and 93.496 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - Net profit is forecasted to decrease from 31.853 billion yuan in 2024 to 28.723 billion yuan in 2025, before rising to 29.357 billion yuan in 2026 and 31.940 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to be 8.21 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 7.40 yuan in 2025, then slightly increasing to 7.56 yuan in 2026 and 8.23 yuan in 2027 [2][9] - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 15 for 2024, increasing to 17 for 2025 and 2026, and returning to 15 in 2027 [2][9] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decrease from 3.7 in 2024 to 3.1 in 2027 [2][9] Market Performance - The report notes that Wuliangye's stock price has shown resilience compared to the CSI 300 index, with a notable performance over the past 12 months [5][6]