| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600668 | 尖峰集团 | 12.69 | 2.01% | 24.80万 | | 3.13亿 | | 000672 | 上峰水泥 | 9.34 | 1.63% | 22.75万 | | 2.11亿 | | 600449 | 宁夏建材 | 14.52 | 1.54% | 14.93万 | | 2.17亿 | | 002205 | 国统股份 | 14.69 | 1.31% | - 16.76万 | | 2.48亿 | | 002233 | 塔牌集团 | 8.98 | 1.24% | 16.26万 | | 1.45亿 | | 601992 | 金偶集团 | 1.71 | 1.18% | 86.81万 | | 1.48亿 | | 603616 | 韩建河山 | 5.86 | 0.86% | 20.67万 | | 1.21亿 | | 003037 | 三和营桩 | 9.29 | 0.76% | 20.00万 | | 1.85亿 | | 6 ...

建材行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 新藏铁路影响深远，区域水泥投资机会可 期 ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 市场部分观点认为新藏铁路带来的资本市场投资机会或已过去，更偏短期情绪。但我们 的观点在于，长期来看铁路建设以及后续对于区域经济活力的激发，将持续拉动水泥需 求，由于南疆水泥市场格局较好，可展望价格的进一步上涨，提升企业利润弹性，带来 落实到基本面的投资机会。建议关注在新疆有产能布局的水泥企业，如青松建化 (600425，未评级)、天山股份(000877，未评级)、海螺水泥(600585，未评级)。 风险提示 新疆水泥需求增长不及预期、行业供给端超预期放量、原燃材料价格上涨、假设条件变 化影响测算结果。 国家/地区 中国 行业 建材行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 26 日 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 | 玻纤仍需"反内卷"，落实效果或可期待： | 2025-07-17 | | --- | --- | | ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 地产走弱冲击有限，城市更新有望接力： | 20 ...

Market Performance - The cement sector increased by 2.69% on August 25, with Tianshan Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.56, up 1.51%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12441.07, up 2.26% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Tianshan Co. (000877) closed at 7.24, up 10.03% with a trading volume of 1.8872 million shares and a transaction value of 1.323 billion [1] - Sichuan Jinding (600678) closed at 10.90, up 4.21% with a trading volume of 585,200 shares [1] - Other notable performers include Qingsong Jianhua (600425) up 3.80%, Huaxin Cement (600801) up 2.37%, and Conch Cement (600585) up 1.73% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The cement sector experienced a net outflow of 132 million from institutional investors and 145 million from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 277 million [2] - Tianshan Co. had a net inflow of 91.7948 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 70.9452 million from speculative funds [3] - Sichuan Jinding saw a net inflow of 39.2387 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 41.4341 million from retail investors [3]

（责任编辑：康博） 中国经济网北京8月25日讯 天山股份(SZ:000877)今日股价涨停，截至收盘报7.24元，涨幅10.03%， 总市值514.80亿元。该股此前1个交易日涨停。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, highlighting potential opportunities in both "grouping" and "switching" strategies within the industry [2][11]. Core Insights - The building materials market is experiencing a shift in focus, with technology stocks gaining momentum while the building materials sector presents viable options for investment [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring production capacity and quality improvements in key segments such as electronic fabrics and Q fabrics, which are expected to see increased demand due to advancements in AI and PCB technologies [3][4]. - The report identifies a growing confidence in infrastructure projects in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet, driven by government investments and the necessity of transportation infrastructure [11][12]. - The consumer building materials segment is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of improved revenue performance as the market stabilizes [24][25]. Summary by Sections Grouping in Building Materials - The electronic fabric sector is expected to maintain its performance, with leading companies like Zhongcai Technology reporting strong sales and production growth [3]. - The AI industry's production expectations are advancing, with key suppliers anticipating increased output of Q fabrics by the end of the year [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the production capacity and quality of Q fabrics, which will determine the actual supply capabilities of companies [4]. Switching in Building Materials - Infrastructure projects in Xinjiang and Tibet are gaining traction, with significant government backing and a strong demand for cement due to the region's unique geographical advantages [11][12]. - The consumer building materials sector is entering a recovery phase, with sales and construction data indicating a bottoming out of the market [13][14]. - The report notes that the cement industry is poised for potential growth, driven by policy improvements and governance enhancements [15][29]. Cement Industry - The cement sector is entering a peak season, but market performance remains subdued due to high comparative bases from the previous year [29][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures to limit overproduction in the cement industry, which could enhance profitability [30][33]. - Companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are highlighted for their strong cash flow and potential for shareholder returns [34][38]. Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing price stabilization, with environmental regulations expected to impact production costs [40][41]. - The report indicates that the glass industry is facing cash flow challenges, with many companies operating at a loss [42]. - Companies like Xinyi Glass are expected to maintain competitive positions despite market pressures, with a focus on improving operational efficiency [43]. Photovoltaic Glass - The photovoltaic glass segment is seeing a decline in inventory levels, with prices remaining stable amid increased demand from downstream component manufacturers [48]. - The report notes that while domestic prices are under pressure, overseas markets are performing better, which could benefit leading companies in the sector [49]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is characterized by a divergence in production and sales, with electronic fabrics maintaining a favorable outlook [50].

Market Overview - On August 22, the cement sector rose by 2.04%, with Tianshan Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3825.76, up 1.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12166.06, up 2.07% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Tianshan Co. (000877) closed at 6.58, up 10.03% with a trading volume of 1.8653 million shares and a transaction value of 1.193 billion [1] - Qingsong Jianhua (600425) closed at 4.74, up 9.98% with a trading volume of 2.006 million shares and a transaction value of 920 million [1] - Xibu Construction (002302) closed at 7.20, up 2.86% with a trading volume of 658,400 shares and a transaction value of 471 million [1] - Other notable performances include: - Qingyun Materials (601992) up 1.82% - Ningxia Building Materials (600449) up 0.99% - Guotong Co. (002205) up 0.91% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The cement sector saw a net inflow of 227 million in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 30.3 million [2] - Main funds showed significant inflows into Tianshan Co. (216 million) and Qingsong Jianhua (214 million), while retail funds showed outflows from several stocks including Tianshan Co. and Guotong Co. [3] Summary of Capital Flow by Stock - Tianshan Co. had a main fund net inflow of 216 million, accounting for 18.12% of total inflows, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 14.42 million [3] - Qingsong Jianhua had a main fund net inflow of 214 million, representing 23.29% of total inflows, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 12.6 million [3] - Other stocks like Xibu Construction and Qingyun Materials also showed varied capital flows, with some experiencing net outflows from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 35.98 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.40%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.922 billion yuan, an increase of 72.99% year-on-year [2][4]. - The analysis indicates that the company's cement and clinker revenue per ton increased to 251 yuan, a rise of 13 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the cost per ton decreased to 203 yuan, a drop of 14 yuan per ton year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 39 yuan per ton, an increase of 18 yuan per ton year-on-year [6]. - The company is expected to achieve profits of 0.9 billion yuan and 1.4 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 46 and 29 times [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 80.62 million tons of cement, a decrease of 14.63% year-on-year, and 9.9 million tons of clinker, a decrease of 14.59% year-on-year [12]. - The overall cement demand in the first half of 2025 was weak, with national infrastructure investment growing by 4.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment fell by 11.2% [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in regions like Africa and Central Asia, where market conditions are more favorable compared to the domestic market [12]. - The report anticipates that supply-side reforms will provide price recovery elasticity, potentially improving production order and real capacity utilization [12].

Group 1 - Tianshan Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 10.03%, reaching a latest price of 6.58 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 46.787 billion yuan and a trading volume of 8.86 billion yuan [1] - The company has seen a profit contribution of approximately 42 million yuan from the successful delivery of a project in Tunisia, which supports its overseas business expansion and is related to the "Belt and Road" initiative [2] - The anticipated increase in cement demand in Xinjiang due to major projects like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway and the New Tibet Railway aligns with the company's capabilities in supplying special cement, linking it to infrastructure and regional development themes [2] Group 2 - The company is strictly implementing capacity replacement policies to optimize its production structure, promoting supply-side structural reforms in the cement industry, which is associated with supply-side reform themes [2] - Tianshan Co., Ltd. is primarily involved in sectors related to cement, the Belt and Road initiative, infrastructure, supply-side reform, and green low-carbon concepts [2]

Group 1: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing an upward trend, driven by the intensifying geopolitical competition among major powers, with a long-term positive outlook for military investments [4][5][6] - The recent commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War have highlighted the importance of national defense, leading to increased military spending [5] - Key companies to focus on include major manufacturers and component suppliers such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC South Lake, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [4] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - The implementation of new national standards for refrigerators is expected to accelerate the demand for VIP boards, with the company Reascent Technology poised for significant growth following its acquisition of Maikelong [8][9] - The company has integrated its supply chain from fiberglass cotton to VIP core materials and VIP boards, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [9] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk continues to decline, and a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, benefiting from reduced production and improved demand [11][19] - Beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reduction and decreased import pressures, with a projected increase in profitability for livestock companies [12][20] - The cyclical resonance between meat and milk production is expected to enhance the profitability of leading livestock companies [11][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 8.92 CNY, while the current price is 5.91 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The company reported its 2025 mid-year results, which met expectations. The significant recovery in cement profitability is attributed to peak pricing and a decline in coal prices. Future demand for cement is expected to rise with the commencement of major infrastructure projects in the western region [2][13]. - The company achieved a revenue of 35.98 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company improved to a loss of 0.92 billion CNY, showing a reduction in losses [13]. - The company’s cement and clinker sales volume for the first half of 2025 was 90.52 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 14.6%, with the second quarter sales volume at 52.82 million tons, down 14.09% year-on-year [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 107.38 billion CNY, with projections of 86.99 billion CNY for 2024 and 84.85 billion CNY for 2025, indicating a decline of 19.0% in 2023 and a further decrease of 2.5% in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.965 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected recovery to 1.969 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a significant turnaround from a loss of 0.598 billion CNY in 2024 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.28 CNY for 2025, increasing to 0.35 CNY in 2026 and 0.41 CNY in 2027 [4][13]. Industry Context - The cement industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to peak pricing strategies and lower coal costs, which have improved gross margins. The industry is also benefiting from increased infrastructure spending in the western regions of China [13]. - The company is positioned well within the industry, executing peak production cuts more effectively than its peers, which has helped stabilize its performance amid declining sales volumes [13].