文 | 《 BUG 》栏目 徐苑蕾 双汇二代接班人万宏伟"掌舵"的首年，发布了一份堪忧且有些尴尬的财报。 堪忧在于，其全年营收 595.61 亿元，同比下滑 0.55% ，归母净利润 49.89 亿元，下降 1.26% ，这已是其连续第四年营收下滑。其中，包装肉制品收入锐减 6.16% ，生鲜猪产 品业务同样疲软。 长期以来，火腿肠、午餐肉等传统包装肉制品构成了双汇发展的主要收入来源，但这类产品 正逐渐失去对年轻消费者的吸引力。一方面，随着健康饮食观念普及，消费者更倾向于新 鲜、低加工的肉类产品，预制菜、低温肉制品的崛起进一步挤压传统包装肉制品的市场空 间。另一方面，一些新潮品牌同样在蚕食市场。根据媒体报道， 2021 年，谢霆锋和杭州 谦寻共同创立了锋味派品牌。借助直播电商和明星创始人影响力的叠加，锋味派迅速破圈。 近期其宣布累计销售额达 15 亿元，连续三年全国销量第一。 财报还显示，双汇 2024 年肉类产品总外销量 318 万吨，同比下降 1.67% 。报告期内， 包装肉制品业务收入 247.88 亿元，同比下降 6.16% ；此外，撑起营收半壁江山的生鲜猪 产品业务也呈现下滑趋势。 2024 年，该 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to enhance the sales of its meat products by implementing a series of strategic measures by 2025, focusing on market specialization, customer network expansion, and product innovation. Group 1: Sales Strategy - The company plans to reform its sales organization to promote specialized market operations by establishing dedicated sales teams for different product categories [1] - It will build a comprehensive customer network to expand its customer base through targeted operations [1] - The company intends to increase the number of sales outlets and improve terminal operation quality to boost sales [1] - Market research will be strengthened to align with diverse consumer demands, including high-end, mass, youth, and children's segments [1] - The company will implement refined management practices across various sales channels to enhance operational efficiency [1] - Increased market investment will be made to support customers and drive sales [1] - Digital tools will be utilized to empower market sales and support refined management [1] - The company will enhance team motivation through effective incentive programs to boost workforce vitality [1] Group 2: New Product Development - The company plans to develop new high-temperature products focusing on health concepts such as reduced salt, fat, and sugar [2] - For low-temperature products, the focus will be on high-end Western-style offerings [2] - New snack products will be developed with innovative packaging to cater to various consumption scenarios [2] - Frozen products will aim for higher taste restoration and broader regional adaptability [2] - High-cost performance products will be created to compete in specific market segments [2] - Regional products will be researched to meet localized consumer preferences [2]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of CNY 59.7 billion, a decrease of 0.64% year-on-year [4] - The total profit reached CNY 6.659 billion, an increase of 0.21% year-on-year [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 4.989 billion, down 1.26% year-on-year [4] - Fresh products revenue was CNY 30.33 billion, down 2.1% year-on-year, with operating profit of CNY 440 million, down 35.6% [4] - Meat products revenue was CNY 24.79 billion, down 6.2%, but operating profit increased by 6.8% to CNY 6.65 billion [4] - Other business segments generated CNY 9.96 billion in revenue, up 10.4%, with operating profit improving [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "Four Modernizations" strategy and focusing on "two adjustments and one control" to enhance operational efficiency [4] - A new board of directors has been established, emphasizing marketing innovation and digital transformation [5] - The company plans to expand its network and improve sales through targeted marketing and customer engagement [6][8] Sales and Market Development - In 2025, the company aims to enhance meat product sales through specialized sales teams and a comprehensive customer network [6][8] - The company will focus on market research to align products with consumer demands across various demographics [6][8] - New product development will target health-conscious consumers with reduced salt, fat, and sugar options [12][15] Production and Operations - The company anticipates a significant increase in pig production in 2025, with improved management and cost control measures [16] - The poultry sector is expected to achieve profitability through enhanced disease prevention and production management [16] - The company plans to maintain low inventory levels for frozen products while scaling up fresh product offerings [18] Shareholder Returns - The company will continue its stable and sustainable dividend policy, ensuring returns to shareholders while supporting long-term growth [17]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a resilient performance in its 2024 annual report despite a decline in revenue and net profit, showcasing strong operational capabilities and strategic foresight in a challenging market environment [1][2][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 59.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.989 billion yuan, down 1.26% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities reached 8.416 billion yuan, a significant increase of 148.42% compared to the previous year, indicating improved profitability and cash return [4][6]. - The profit margin per ton of meat products reached a record high of 4,700 yuan in 2024 [8]. Business Segments - The slaughtering and meat processing sectors remain the company's two main pillars, with meat products generating 24.788 billion yuan in revenue (41.62% of total revenue) and the slaughtering sector contributing 30.334 billion yuan (50.93% of total revenue) [4][6]. - The gross margin for the meat products segment increased by 4.01% to 35.67%, with operating profit rising by 6.8% to 6.65 billion yuan, marking five consecutive years of growth [4][5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has effectively implemented its "two adjustments and one control" strategy, focusing on adjusting product structure, pricing, and cost control, which has enhanced its resilience against market fluctuations [5][10]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, including new products that cater to evolving consumer preferences, and invested 203 million yuan in research and development, a 1.79% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has expanded its distribution network, increasing the number of distributors by 19.83% to 21,282, which supports sales growth [6][10]. - Looking ahead to 2025, the company anticipates continued low raw material costs for meat products and plans to increase market investment and introduce more cost-effective products, although it expects a slight decrease in profit per ton compared to 2024 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 showed significant improvement, with a quarterly revenue of 15.6 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.18 billion yuan, up 63.3% year-on-year. The overall revenue for 2024 was 59.715 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year, and the net profit was 4.989 billion yuan, down 1.3% year-on-year [3][4] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a total dividend of 4.885 billion yuan for 2024, representing 98% of the net profit, indicating a stable value investment [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 597.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 49.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.3% year-on-year [3][6] - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 156.03 billion yuan, an increase of 13.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.85 billion yuan, an increase of 63.3% year-on-year [3][4] - The company forecasts net profits of 52.4 billion yuan, 55.1 billion yuan, and 58.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.51, 1.59, and 1.68 yuan [3][6] Business Segment Performance - The meat product segment generated revenue of 55.9 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, but the operating profit increased by 7.4% due to effective cost control [4] - The slaughtering segment saw revenue of 85.1 billion yuan in Q4 2024, an increase of 21.7% year-on-year, with operating profit rising by 153.0% [5] - The breeding segment turned profitable in Q4 2024, with a revenue increase of 15.1% year-on-year, indicating potential for growth in 2025 [5] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 26.64 yuan, with a market capitalization of 92.299 billion yuan [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 17.6, 16.8, and 15.9 respectively [3][6] - The company maintains a high return on equity (ROE) of 23.7% for 2024, projected to decline to 15.5% by 2027 [6][9]

| | 2024年 | 2023 年 | 本年比上年 | 2022年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 增减 | | | 营业收入(元) | 59,561,224,544.07 | 59,892,963,176.51 | -0.55% | 62,575,635,903.48 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利 润(元) | 4,989,048,074.60 | 5,052,741,772.33 | -1.26% | 5,620,885,670.80 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益的净利润 | 4,812,760,810.76 | 4,732,071,610.46 | 1.71% | 5,216,721,795.58 | | (元) | | | | | | 经营活动产生的现金流量净 | 8,415,760,882.42 | 3,387,718,636.44 | 148.42% | 7.565.466.114.96 | | 额(元) | | | | | | 基本每股收益(元/股) | 1.4400 | 1.4584 | -1.26% | 1.6223 ...

Core Viewpoint - The annual report of Shuanghui Development for 2024 shows stable performance with a revenue of 59.561 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.989 billion yuan, marking the first report under the leadership of the new chairman, Wan Hongwei, who emphasizes innovation in the company's traditional strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - Shuanghui Development reported a revenue of 59.561 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.55% year-on-year, while the total profit increased by 0.21% to 6.659 billion yuan. The net profit decreased by 1.26% compared to the previous year [2]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to lower sales of packaged meat products and fresh pork, as well as low prices for poultry products, with total meat product sales volume at 3.18 million tons, down 1.67% year-on-year [2]. Strategic Direction - The company is pursuing a strategy of "industrialization, diversification, internationalization, and digitalization" to innovate while maintaining its core values. Wan Hongwei plans to focus on cultural and management aspects to ensure a smooth transition [2][4]. - In 2025, Shuanghui plans to implement sales organization reforms in its meat product business, focusing on specialized marketing teams and enhancing product quality and innovation [5]. Market Development - Shuanghui aims to strengthen market development in its slaughtering business and expand its customer base, leveraging its brand advantages and enhancing its market share [6]. - The company reported a significant increase in its distribution network, with over 1 million outlets and a 19.83% increase in the number of distributors [4]. Digitalization and Young Marketing - The company is accelerating its digital transformation, planning to invest approximately 1.5 billion yuan in automation and digital upgrades to enhance operational efficiency [7]. - Shuanghui is also focusing on marketing innovations aimed at younger consumers, intending to create a more vibrant and relatable brand image [7][8]. Organizational Adjustments - To optimize its marketing system and strengthen digital initiatives, Shuanghui has restructured its internal management, consolidating various departments to enhance efficiency [8]. - The company emphasizes the importance of safety management and sustainable development, aiming to improve its ESG governance levels [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shuanghui Development, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][24]. Core Insights - In 2024, Shuanghui Development achieved total revenue of 59.715 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.64% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.989 billion yuan, down 1.26% year-on-year. However, Q4 showed a strong performance with revenue of 15.6 billion yuan, up 13.45% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.19 billion yuan, up 63.3% year-on-year [2][7]. - The company proposed a high dividend payout, maintaining a dividend rate of 97.9%, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 5.4% [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow to 61.983 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase to 5.245 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 5.1% [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to be 1.51 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 times [2][3]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 39.7% and an asset-liability ratio of 42.8% [3][13]. Business Segment Analysis - **Meat Products**: - In 2024, the meat products segment generated revenue of 24.79 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with a unit profit of 4,699 yuan per ton, reaching a historical high [7][9]. - Q4 revenue for meat products was 5.59 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, but unit profit increased by 9.4% to 4,525 yuan per ton [7][9]. - **Slaughtering and Other Businesses**: - The slaughtering segment reported revenue of 30.33 billion yuan in 2024, down 2.1% year-on-year, but Q4 revenue increased by 21.7% to 8.508 billion yuan due to favorable pig prices [7][10]. - The company aims to improve operational efficiency in its breeding segment, which reported a loss of approximately 370 million yuan for the year but turned profitable in Q4 [7][10]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its specialized operations in the meat products segment and expand its slaughtering scale, with expectations of turning the breeding segment profitable [7][10]. - The overall business is projected to achieve stable growth, supported by cost advantages and improved operational efficiency [7][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" due to its strong competitive advantage in the meat products industry and high dividend payout ratio, despite slight adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 59.715 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.64% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.989 billion yuan, down 1.26% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 48.85 billion yuan for the year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 97.92% [5][6]. - The company achieved record high profit margins in its meat products segment, with a per-ton profit of approximately 4,700 yuan, driven by favorable pricing conditions for pork and chicken [5][6]. - The company is implementing a sales system reform to enhance its market presence and improve sales performance in 2025, despite anticipated cost pressures [5][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 60.663 billion yuan, 62.282 billion yuan, and 64.008 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 2.7%, and 2.8% [4][5]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 5.040 billion yuan, 5.130 billion yuan, and 5.299 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 1%, 1.8%, and 3.3% respectively [4][5]. - The company's earnings per share are projected to be 1.45 yuan, 1.48 yuan, and 1.53 yuan for 2025-2027 [4][5].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the average operating profit per ton of meat products reached approximately 4,700 RMB, marking a historical high [4] - For 2025, it is anticipated that the average operating profit per ton of meat products may be lower than in 2024, but will still remain at a relatively high level due to low raw material costs and increased market investment [5] Group 2: Strategies for Growth in Meat Products - The company will implement specialized marketing operations and refined market management to support the growth of meat product sales [6] - Key initiatives include sales organization reform, establishing dedicated marketing directors and teams for different product segments [6] - Expansion of the sales network through increased quality and quantity of outlets to drive scale growth [7] - Enhanced market research to align with consumer demand and promote new product development [7] - Expansion of the sales team and deepening channel operations to improve market precision [8] - Increased market investment to support customers and boost market sales [9] - Utilization of digital tools to empower market sales and refine management [10] - Strengthening team incentives to enhance workforce vitality [11] Group 3: Strategies for Growth in Slaughtering Industry - Focus on market development to expand the customer base and increase market sales [12] - Leverage brand advantages to enhance local market share and actively engage in market competition [13] - Utilize comprehensive processing advantages to increase the proportion of processed products [13] - Enhance regional collaboration to improve overall operational efficiency [13] - Introduce customized and refined processing products to meet niche market demands [13]