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5月USDA供需报告分析:新作库存低于预期,利多大豆和玉米
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-15 07:30
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The USDA supply and demand report indicates that new crop inventories for soybeans and corn are lower than expected, which is favorable for prices [4][6] - Global corn production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 1.221 billion tons, with significant increases in production from the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina [1][12] - The soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 410 million tons, with Brazil expected to reach a record 175 million tons [2][3][18] - The global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 is 667 million tons, reflecting a 1.0% year-on-year increase, with the EU showing significant growth [4][28] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report estimates a global corn production of 1.221 billion tons for 2024/25, with U.S. production increasing by 24.22 million tons due to expanded planting [1][12] - The projected global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are 95.68 million tons, a 7.4% increase year-on-year, with a low stocks-to-use ratio of 10% [1][12] Soybeans - The global soybean production for 2024/25 is estimated at 421 million tons, with U.S. ending stocks significantly reduced to 295 million bushels [2][3][18] - The forecast for global soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 is 80.47 million tons, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 27.6% [3][19] Wheat - The global wheat production for 2025/26 is projected at 667 million tons, with the EU's production expected to increase by 11.4% to 136 million tons [4][28] - The global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 are estimated at 14.2 million tons, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 21.6% [5][28] Investment Recommendations - In light of increasing global weather extremes and geopolitical tensions affecting grain prices, the report emphasizes the importance of seed source control for national food security [6][36] - Recommended companies include leading seed firms with transgenic advantages such as Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Qianyuan High-Tech, along with suggestions to monitor Kangnong Seed Industry, Denghai Seed Industry, and Fengle Seed Industry [6][36]
登海种业(002041):粮价低迷拖累业绩,2025年营收利润双降
Guolian Securities· 2025-05-15 02:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [18] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue and profit due to low grain prices, with expectations for revenue and profit to decrease in 2025 [2][10] - The company is actively developing high-yield new varieties and increasing investment in research and development [12] - The company is projected to benefit from the commercialization of genetically modified corn, suggesting a potential for future growth despite current challenges [13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.246 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.74% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 57 million yuan, down 77.86% year-on-year [10][14] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 163 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.04%, and a net profit of 25 million yuan, down 18.37% year-on-year [10] Business Segments - The corn business generated revenue of 1.073 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 20.78% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.50%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points [4][11] - The wheat business revenue was 108 million yuan, down 3.38% year-on-year, while the rice business revenue was 32 million yuan, down 30.61% year-on-year, and the vegetable seed business revenue was 13 million yuan, down 7.23% year-on-year [4][11] Research and Development - The company has successfully passed the approval for 20 new corn varieties and is increasing its R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 83 million yuan in 2024, up 24.79% year-on-year [12] - In Q1 2025, R&D expenses were 14 million yuan, an increase of 9.65% year-on-year [12] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.290 billion yuan, 1.418 billion yuan, and 1.673 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.60%, 9.85%, and 18.02% respectively [13][14] - Net profit projections for the same period are 177 million yuan, 187 million yuan, and 206 million yuan, with growth rates of 212.13%, 5.75%, and 10.06% respectively [13][14]
登海种业(002041) - 2024年度股东会决议公告
2025-05-13 10:45
山东登海种业股份有限公司 证券代码:002041 证券简称:登海种业 公告编号:2025-019 山东登海种业股份有限公司 2024 年度股东会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整,没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示: 1、本次股东会以现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式召开。 (1)现场会议召开时间:2025 年 5 月 13 日(星期二)下午 14: 00 起。 (2)网络投票时间:2025 年 5 月 13 日,其中,通过深圳证券交 易所交易系统进行网络投票时间为 2025 年 5 月 13 日上午 9:15- 9:25,9:30-11:30,下午 13:00-15:00;通过深圳证券交易所互联网系 统进行投票的时间为 2025 年 5 月 13 日上午 9:15 至 2025 年 5 月 13 日下午 15:00 期间的任意时间。 2、会议召开地点:山东省莱州市城港路山东登海种业股份有限公 司培训中心三楼会议室 3、会议召开方式:现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式 4、会议召集人:公司董事会 2、公司于 2025 年 4 月 23 日在《证券时报》《中国证券报》和 巨 ...
登海种业(002041) - 登海种业2024年年度股东会见证意见
2025-05-13 10:45
北京德恒(济南)律师事务所 关于山东登海种业股份有限公司 2024 年度股东会的 法律意见 山东省济南市历下区舜泰北路 567 号银丰科技广场 2 号楼 电话:0531-81663606 邮编:250 000 北京德恒(济南)律师事务所 关于山东登海种业股份有限公司 2024 年度股东会的法律意见 北京德恒(济南)律师事务所 关于 山东登海种业股份有限公司 2024 年度股东会的 法律意见 德恒20250513001号 致:山东登海种业股份有限公司 北京德恒(济南)律师事务所(以下简称"本所")作为山东登海种业股份 有限公司(以下简称"公司")的常年法律顾问,受公司委托,指派胡琦秀律师、 董慧利律师(以下简称"本所律师")出席公司2024年度股东会(以下简称"本 次股东会"),根据《中华人民共和国公司法》(以下简称"《公司法》")、 《上市公司股东会规则》(以下简称"《股东会规则》")等现行有效的法律、 法规、规范性文件以及《山东登海种业股份有限公司章程》(以下简称"《公司 章程》")、《山东登海种业股份有限公司股东会议事规则》(以下简称"《股 东会议事规则》")的规定,对本次股东会进行见证,并出具法律意见。 ...
农林牧渔行业周报:猪价震荡偏弱,豆粕价格回落-20250513
Yong Xing Zheng Quan· 2025-05-13 09:48
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of the agriculture sector with an "Overweight" rating, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry due to stable demand and strong policy support [3][5]. Core Views - The agriculture sector is seen as a defensive investment option amidst a complex external environment, with many meat protein and agricultural product prices currently in a recovery phase, suggesting potential for stable growth in leading companies [3]. - The report highlights that low costs are a core competitive advantage for listed pig farming companies, recommending a focus on firms with strong cost control or clear cost reduction paths [3]. - The report suggests monitoring specific companies across various segments, including pig farming, poultry, feed, and agricultural products, indicating a diversified investment approach [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agriculture sector underperformed the market by 1.02 percentage points during the week of May 6-9, 2025, with the index closing at 2,619.30, reflecting a 0.99% increase [14]. - Among sub-sectors, the fishery sector performed best with a 3.87% increase, while the breeding sector saw a slight decline of 0.19% [16][18]. Key Industry Data Pig Farming - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.82 CNY/kg, down 0.13% from April 30, 2025, and down 0.74% year-on-year [1]. - The profit from self-breeding was 84.33 CNY per head, while the profit from purchasing piglets increased by 9.92 CNY to 58.46 CNY per head [1]. Poultry - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of broiler chicks was 2.91 CNY per chick, up 0.34% week-on-week, while the price of white feather broilers was 7.45 CNY/kg, down 0.40% [2]. Agricultural Products - As of May 9, 2025, the average prices for key crops were as follows: wheat at 2,460.67 CNY/ton (up 0.19%), japonica rice at 2,864.00 CNY/ton (up 0.21%), corn at 2,292.86 CNY/ton (up 1.78%), and soybean meal at 3,300.00 CNY/ton (down 5.08%) [2]. Company Announcements - Muyuan Foods reported selling 6.573 million pigs in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.80%, with an average selling price of 14.66 CNY/kg [35][36]. - Shennong Development achieved a sales revenue of 1.533 billion CNY in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.68% [37].
农林牧渔行业周报第16期:猪价震荡运行,行业盈利可观
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-12 10:45
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant role of agricultural technology innovation in modernizing agriculture, emphasizing the importance of enhancing the innovation ecosystem and supporting agricultural self-sufficiency [11] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of pigs is currently fluctuating around 14.5-15 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease observed this week [12] - The report suggests that the commercialization of genetically modified crops will accelerate, which is expected to improve self-sufficiency in key varieties [11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and other departments have issued an implementation opinion to enhance the agricultural technology innovation system, focusing on eight key tasks [11] - Companies like Beidahuang and Su-Kun Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these initiatives [11] Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs is 14.80 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week change of -0.05% [12] - The number of breeding sows is 40.39 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.66% [12] - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, such as Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [12] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the planting sector include Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Qianyuan High-Tech [11] - In the pig farming sector, companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Haida Group are highlighted for their potential benefits [12] - The report also mentions companies in the animal health sector, such as Jinhai Biological and Zhongmu Co., which are expected to gain from market trends [12]
登海种业(002041) - 关于参加2025年山东辖区上市公司投资者网上集体接待日活动的公告
2025-05-12 08:45
证券代码:002041 证券简称:登海种业 公告编号:2025-018 山东登海种业股份有限公司 关于参加 2025 年山东辖区上市公司投资者 网上集体接待日活动的公告 山东登海种业股份有限公司 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流,山东登海种业股份有限公司 (以下简称"公司")将参加由山东证监局、山东上市公司协会与深 圳市全景网络有限公司联合举办的"2025 年山东辖区上市公司投资 者网上集体接待日活动",现将相关事项公告如下: 本次活动将采用网络远程的方式举行,投资者可登录"全景路演" 网站(http://rs.p5w.net);或关注微信公众号(名称:全景财经); 或下载全景路演 APP,参与本次互动交流。活动时间为 2025 年 5 月 15 日(周四)15:00-16:30。届时公司高管将在线就公司 2024 年年报、 2025 年第一季度报告及其他投资者关心的问题,与投资者进行沟通 与交流,欢迎广大投资者踊跃参与! 特此公告。 山东登海种业股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 5 月 13 日 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整,没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 ...
转基因概念下跌0.77%,9股主力资金净流出超千万元
截至5月12日收盘,转基因概念下跌0.77%,位居概念板块跌幅榜前列,板块内,神农种业、荃银高 科、敦煌种业等跌幅居前,股价上涨的有4只,涨幅居前的有芭田股份、新安股份、科前生物等,分别 上涨3.20%、1.95%、1.83%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中船系 | 6.55 | 重组蛋白 | -0.94 | | 成飞概念 | 5.77 | 代糖概念 | -0.82 | | 军工信息化 | 4.28 | 转基因 | -0.77 | | 同花顺果指数 | 4.17 | 创新药 | -0.60 | | 国产航母 | 3.73 | 粮食概念 | -0.60 | | 军民融合 | 3.69 | 玉米 | -0.59 | | 航空发动机 | 3.42 | 大豆 | -0.45 | | 人形机器人 | 3.20 | 农业种植 | -0.31 | | 减速器 | 3.20 | 生物质能发电 | -0.28 | | 军工 | 3.15 | 减肥药 | -0.24 | 资金面上看,今日转基因概念板块获主力 ...
2025年第19周周报:它博会归来,如何看宠物经济发展新趋势?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-12 00:30
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [12] Core Views - The pet sector continues to show high prosperity, driven by domestic substitution and consumption upgrades, leading to a dual increase in volume and price [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value creation," with leading companies shifting from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing" through formula innovation and precise demand capture [2][17] - The domestic pet food market remains strong, with a significant increase in sales and exports, indicating robust growth potential for domestic brands [2][17] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The fifth TOPS Pet Expo in Shanghai showcased over 1,200 exhibitors and 8,000+ brands, reflecting strong growth momentum in the pet industry, with a 43% year-on-year increase in attendance [1][16] - Trends in pet food are shifting towards precision nutrition, with a focus on age-specific feeding and high-end production techniques [1][16] - Key recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co., with additional recommendations for pet medical and product companies [2][17] Swine Sector - As of May 10, the average price of live pigs was 14.90 yuan/kg, showing a slight decline, with production capacity continuing to grow [3][18] - The industry is facing a potential downturn in profitability due to weak demand and seasonal price declines [3][19] - Recommended companies include leading players such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, with a focus on core assets [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is facing uncertainties in breeding imports, with a significant decline in the number of breeding stock updated [20][21] - The yellow chicken segment is expected to benefit from improved consumer demand, with stable prices observed [23] - Recommended companies include Shengnong Development and Lihua Co. for white chicken, and Wens Foodstuffs for yellow chicken [22][23] Planting Sector - The government emphasizes agricultural technology innovation and self-sufficiency in food security, with a focus on biological breeding [25][26] - Recommended companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, with additional focus on agricultural water-saving technologies [25][26] Feed and Animal Health Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its market share growth and consistent performance in the feed sector [27] - The animal health sector is seeing new opportunities in pet health products, with recommended companies including KQ Bio and Zhongmu Co. [28]
农林牧渔行业周报:短期消费疲软致猪价下挫,仔猪及母猪高价或表明后市乐观预期
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 14:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Short-term consumption weakness has led to a slight decline in pig prices, but high prices for piglets and sows indicate optimistic expectations for the future [4][6] - The pig farming sector shows low valuation opportunities, while the pet sector continues to strengthen the logic of domestic brand rise [7][25] - The overall agricultural index underperformed the market by 0.93 percentage points during the week [29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - After the May Day holiday, consumer support was insufficient, leading to a slight decline in national pig prices. As of May 9, the average selling price of live pigs was 14.79 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week-on-week, a decrease of 0.14% [4][15] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 148,800 pigs, a decrease of 780 pigs from the previous week [4][15] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation opportunities, with the supply side not yet recovering to the levels of the same period in 2023. The demand side is supported by macro policies driving consumption recovery [25] - Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, Huadong Food, and Tiankang Biological [7][25] Market Performance (May 5-9) - The agricultural index rose by 0.99%, underperforming the market by 0.93 percentage points, with the fishery sector leading the gains [29][32] - Notable stock performances included *ST Jiawo (+13.47%), Guotou Zhonglu (+12.05%), and Xuelong Biological (+11.04%) [29][35] Price Tracking (May 5-9) - As of May 9, the national average price for live pigs was 14.82 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price for piglets was 36.87 yuan/kg, also down 0.01 yuan/kg [41] - The average profit for self-bred pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.72 yuan/head week-on-week [41] Key News (May 5-9) - Seven departments jointly issued an implementation opinion to enhance the overall effectiveness of the agricultural science and technology innovation system [36]