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转基因概念下跌1.12%,6股主力资金净流出超千万元
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-05-08 08:44
Group 1 - The genetically modified (GM) concept sector declined by 1.12%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with leading decliners including Fengle Seed Industry, Qianyuan High-Tech, and Wanxiang DeNong [1][2] - Among the GM concept stocks, only four experienced price increases, with Ba Tian Co., Qian Qian Bio, and Top Cloud Agriculture rising by 2.16%, 1.92%, and 1.85% respectively [1][2] - The GM concept sector saw a net outflow of 123 million yuan from main funds today, with 11 stocks experiencing net outflows, and six stocks seeing outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The stock with the highest net outflow was Qianyuan High-Tech, with a net outflow of 28.98 million yuan, followed by Fengle Seed Industry, Dabeinong, and Shennong Seed Industry with net outflows of 25.65 million yuan, 22.57 million yuan, and 18.05 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Top Cloud Agriculture, Longping High-Tech, and Ba Tian Co., with net inflows of 7.65 million yuan, 7.01 million yuan, and 2.32 million yuan respectively [3]
农业24年报&25一季报总结:养殖链盈利好转 重视农业投资机会
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 10:23
Industry Overview - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry experienced a slight revenue decline in 2024, with total revenue of 1.24 trillion, down 4.06% year-on-year. However, net profit turned positive at 47.985 billion, indicating a significant improvement in profitability, particularly in the breeding sector [1][11] - In Q4 2024, the industry achieved revenue of 349.694 billion, up 0.98% year-on-year, and net profit of 16.209 billion, a substantial increase of 293.20% [1][11] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 290.7 billion, up 4.44% year-on-year, with net profit of 13.335 billion, marking a turnaround from losses [1][11] Swine Breeding - The swine breeding sector saw a recovery in 2024, with revenue of 483.276 billion, down 2.98% year-on-year, and net profit of 33.142 billion, indicating a return to profitability [2][26] - In Q1 2025, revenue increased to 118.888 billion, up 17.32% year-on-year, with net profit of 8.151 billion, continuing the positive trend [2][26] - The sector is expected to maintain good profitability in the short term, driven by strong swine prices and improved breeding costs, while long-term trends may lead to capacity reduction and a new cycle of growth [2][26] Poultry Breeding - The poultry breeding sector achieved revenue of 72.908 billion in 2024, up 1.93% year-on-year, with net profit soaring to 2.949 billion, a remarkable increase of 2094.95% [3][10] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 16.011 billion, up 1.12% year-on-year, with net profit of 0.38 billion, up 155.38% [3][10] - The sector is closely linked to restaurant demand, and with improving downstream demand, poultry products are expected to benefit significantly [3][10] Seed Sector - The seed sector reported revenue of 24.664 billion in 2024, down 6.56%, but net profit turned positive at 0.454 billion [4][15] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 5.231 billion, up 4.79%, although net profit decreased by 31.87% [4][15] - The sector is expected to see improved demand due to ongoing agricultural revitalization efforts and increased grain yields [4][15]
农林牧渔行业2025年中期投资策略:外部环境多变,农业防御优势凸显
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 09:15
Group 1: Swine Industry - The domestic supply and demand for pigs is expected to improve marginally by Q2 2025, with pig prices supported and entering a phase of gradual upward movement. External factors such as tariff-driven increases in feed raw material prices and higher costs for imported meat are also contributing positively to pig prices. The swine sector is highlighted as a defensive asset amid macroeconomic shocks, reinforcing investment logic. Recommended stocks include Wens Foodstuff Group, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][86]. - In 2024, China's pork production is projected to reach 56.75 million tons, accounting for 49% of global production, with consumption at 57.95 million tons, representing 50% of global consumption. This positions China as the world's largest pork producer and consumer [13][15]. - The average price of pork in 2024 is estimated at 16.8 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. The swine farming market size is expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year [17][32]. Group 2: Poultry Industry - The demand for white chicken remains resilient despite uncertainties from U.S.-China tariff policies and avian influenza outbreaks. The consumption of white feather broilers is expected to improve marginally, with recommended stocks including San Nong Development and He Feng Co [5][94]. - In 2024, the total output of meat chickens in China is projected to reach 14.84 billion, with white feather broilers accounting for 60.85% of this figure. The output of white feather broilers is expected to increase by 2.2% year-on-year [99]. Group 3: Animal Health - The market for piglets and poultry chicks is stable, with a solid demand for poultry chicks supported by increasing poultry farming. The market for ruminant and pet vaccines is also expected to remain robust, with recommended stocks including Bio-Group, Kexin Biology, and Pulaike [6]. Group 4: Planting and Seeds - The focus on food security is emphasized, with companies involved in high-yield genetically modified soybeans likely to benefit from the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The third batch of genetically modified corn varieties is expected to be approved for planting, which may increase the area under cultivation [7]. Group 5: Feed Industry - The recovery of the swine sector is expected to boost domestic demand for feed, while overseas markets present new growth opportunities. The demand for pig feed is anticipated to rebound as pig farming profitability improves and pig stocks gradually recover [8]. Group 6: Pet Industry - The upcoming shopping festivals are expected to drive demand for pet food, with domestic brands likely to gain market share due to increased tariffs on imported high-end products. Recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co, and Petty Co [6].
行业周报:2024年养殖板块利润同比高增,宠物板块高景气延续-20250505
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 06:12
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry experienced a decline in revenue in 2024 but saw a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue growth of 6.79% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 795.07% [4][14] - The livestock sector, particularly poultry and pet food, demonstrated high growth rates in net profit, with poultry farming seeing a 1109.96% increase in 2024 and a 588.35% increase in Q1 2025 [5][20] - The report highlights the recovery of the pig cycle and the upward trend in pig prices, suggesting a favorable outlook for the livestock sector [6][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In 2024, the agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.68%, while net profit reached 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2,706.77 billion yuan, up 6.79%, and net profit was 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% [4][14] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation and potential for recovery, supported by consumption revival. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others. The feed sector benefits from strong domestic and overseas demand [6][24] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, a slight decrease from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 36.88 yuan/kg, also down slightly [8][37]
券商批量调整评级!这些股票被上调
券商中国· 2025-05-04 10:07
Group 1: Core Views - The recent upgrades in stock ratings by brokerages are primarily concentrated in sectors with significant performance growth, rising industry sentiment, or turnaround situations, particularly in AI and robotics [2][5] - The number of stocks downgraded by brokerages has reached a year-to-date high, with notable downgrades in the coal and tourism sectors [5][6] Group 2: Upgraded Stocks - Multiple stocks in the AI and robotics sectors have received rating upgrades, including: - Platinum New Materials, with a projected net profit of 376 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [2] - Huichang Communications, expected to achieve a net profit of 29 million yuan in 2024, turning profitable with a 12.28% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 [2] - Beijing Junzheng, with Q1 revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and anticipated market recovery [3] - Keli Sensor, reporting a net profit of 76 million yuan in Q1, a nearly 76% year-on-year increase [3] - Nanshan Zhishang, recognized for its leading position in domestic wool spinning and new materials applications [3][4] Group 3: Downgraded Stocks - Several coal stocks have been downgraded, including: - Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma, downgraded to "overweight" due to weak coking coal prices [5] - Shanmei International, also downgraded to "overweight" despite low mining costs and potential production increases [5] - The tourism sector has seen downgrades, such as: - Jinjiang Hotels, with a Q1 net profit of 36 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year [5] - Miao Exhibition, downgraded due to declining revenue amid intensified competition [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - Brokerages are optimistic about AI and high-dividend sectors for May, with expectations of a continued oscillating market [7] - Recommendations include focusing on three main directions: financial dividends, self-sufficiency in industries like military, and domestic consumption [7] - The market is expected to follow a gentle recovery path, with attention on cyclical sectors and growth styles, particularly in AI and robotics [7]
登海种业:2024年报点评:销售承压叠加减值计提,Q4归母净利润同比-101%-20250504
Guoxin Securities· 2025-05-04 05:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's sales are under pressure due to a decline in corn prices and oversupply of corn seeds, leading to a significant drop in revenue and net profit for Q4 2024 [1][8] - The company has a strong reserve of high-quality corn varieties and is expected to benefit from the commercialization of genetically modified corn in the future [3][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.74%, with Q4 revenue at 667 million yuan, down 25.70% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 57 million yuan, a decline of 77.86%, with Q4 showing a net loss of 2 million yuan, down 101.22% [1][8] - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 0.64 percentage points to 28.13%, and the net margin fell by 12.56 percentage points to 6.72% [2][14] Sales and Revenue Breakdown - Corn seed revenue in 2024 was 1.073 billion yuan, down 20.78%, while other seeds such as wheat and rice also saw declines in revenue [2][25] - The company’s total revenue from all seeds was 1.246 billion yuan, with a significant drop in growth rate compared to previous years [25] Cost and Expenses - The total expense ratio increased to 19.04%, up 5.27 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, and R&D expenses all rising [2][14] - The company faced increased asset impairment losses, amounting to approximately 120 million yuan year-on-year [1][8] Cash Flow and Asset Management - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 128 million yuan, a decrease of 28.37%, with cash flow from operating activities as a percentage of revenue at 10.29% [3][20] - Inventory turnover days increased by 26.63% to 340.9 days, and accounts receivable turnover days rose by 49.29% to 12.60 days [3][20] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 110 million yuan and 141 million yuan, respectively, with an expected net profit of 176 million yuan in 2027 [22][26] - The projected earnings per share for the next three years are 0.13 yuan, 0.16 yuan, and 0.20 yuan [22][26]
登海种业20250429
2025-04-30 02:08
Summary of the Conference Call for Denghai Seeds Company Overview - **Company**: Denghai Seeds - **Industry**: Agricultural Seeds Key Financial Performance - **Q1 2025 Revenue**: Decreased by 30% year-on-year to 162 million yuan [2] - **Q1 2025 Net Profit**: Decreased by 18.37% year-on-year to 24.5977 million yuan [2] - **2024 Full Year Revenue**: 1.246 billion yuan, down 19.74% year-on-year [3] - **2024 Full Year Net Profit**: 56.6256 million yuan, down 77.86% year-on-year [3] Cost and Production Insights - **Manufacturing Cost Reduction**: Driven by increased yield and reduced soybean production costs [4] - **Average Corn Yield**: Increased from over 300 kg in 2023 to over 400 kg in 2024, significantly lowering production costs [4] - **Seed Pricing Trends**: Decline in seed product ex-factory prices and terminal prices due to falling grain prices [2][5] Market Demand and Product Strategy - **Market Demand Shift**: Increasing preference for low-cost, high-yield seeds; seeds with yields below 400 kg are losing competitiveness [2][7] - **Target Yield Values**: Northwest region target yield set at 3,600 yuan, Gansu region at approximately 4,200 yuan [8] Profitability and Margin Analysis - **Gross Margin Improvement**: Increased by 1.43 percentage points in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year; significant improvement in Q1 2025 [6] - **Factors for Margin Improvement**: Lower manufacturing costs, optimized product mix, and promotion of new disease-resistant varieties [6] Product Development and Innovation - **New Varieties**: Denghai 2219 and Denghai 997 approved for national promotion, focusing on disease resistance and high-density planting [4][25] - **Market Adaptation**: Introduction of new varieties to meet market demands for drought resistance and low-stature plants [19][27] Pricing and Sales Outlook - **Current Seed Prices**: Retail prices for seeds are estimated between 4 to 5 yuan, with expectations of low prices due to high inventory levels [9] - **Future Pricing Trends**: Anticipated continued pressure on seed prices due to market adjustments and expansion of genetically modified varieties [5][9] Regulatory and Market Environment - **Transgenic Corn Market**: Current market price for transgenic corn is around 70-80 yuan; price increases are not feasible due to market competition [10][13] - **Transgenic Area Expansion**: Expected to reach tens of millions of acres by 2025, with gradual policy relaxation [13][14] Climate Impact and Agricultural Challenges - **Climate Change Effects**: Extreme weather conditions significantly impact corn growth, leading to increased disease prevalence [23][24] - **Adaptation Strategies**: Focus on developing varieties with better resistance to climate-induced stresses [27][28] Conclusion - **Future Growth Potential**: Despite current challenges, the company is positioned to leverage new product developments and market trends to enhance profitability and market share in the agricultural seeds industry [12][15]
趋势研判!2025年中国乡村振兴战略相关政策、产业链、发展现状、重点企业及未来趋势分析:全面推进乡村振兴战略,实现农业农村现代化[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-04-30 01:27
内容概况:农产品加工业是农业产业提质增效的最大空间,是统筹脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴的重要抓手,是 农业产业效益提升的重要途径。近年来,随着脱贫攻坚战取得全面胜利,贫困地区的交通条件、招商引 资、产业建设、民生保障等都发生了巨大变化。目前我国已经进入全面推进乡村振兴阶段,产业振兴是 乡村振兴的重要一环,乡村产业中农产品加工业是体量最大、产业关联度最高的产业。数据显示,2024 年全国规模以上农产品加工企业营业收入超18万亿元。农产品加工业的蓬勃发展,将成为推动乡村产业 振兴、促进农民增收致富的重要引擎,为乡村振兴战略的深入实施注入持久动力。 相关上市企业:苏垦农发(601952)、星光农机(603789)、敦煌种业(600354)、隆平高科 (000998)、梅安森(300275)、芭田股份(002170)、新洋丰(000902)、新希望(000876)、登海 种业(002041)、牧原股份(002714)等。 相关企业:浙江天顺控股集团有限公司、运鸿集团股份有限公司等。 关键词:乡村振兴战略、返乡入乡、国家农村产业融合发展示范园批准创建数量、国家现代农业产业 园、国家级农业产业强镇批准创建数量、规模以上农产品加工业 ...
登海种业2025年一季报简析:净利润减18.37%,三费占比上升明显
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-04-29 22:59
据证券之星公开数据整理,近期登海种业(002041)发布2025年一季报。截至本报告期末,公司营业总 收入1.63亿元,同比下降30.04%,归母净利润2459.77万元,同比下降18.37%。按单季度数据看,第一 季度营业总收入1.63亿元,同比下降30.04%,第一季度归母净利润2459.77万元,同比下降18.37%。本 报告期登海种业三费占比上升明显,财务费用、销售费用和管理费用总和占总营收同比增幅达 42.85%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现一般。其中,毛利率30.68%,同比增17.68%,净利率16.47%,同比 增19.47%,销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计3089.89万元,三费占营收比19.0%,同比增42.85%,每 股净资产4.11元,同比增0.54%,每股经营性现金流-0.09元,同比增0.27%,每股收益0.03元,同比减 18.13% | 项目 | 2024年一季报 | 2025年一季报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(元) | 2.32亿 | 1.63亿 | -30.04% | | 归母净利润(元) | 3013.36 ...
登海种业(002041):公司信息更新报告:粮价低迷致种子滞销积压,期待价格回暖支撑业绩
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 14:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is facing challenges due to low grain prices leading to unsold seed inventory, with expectations for price recovery to support performance [1] - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 19.74% year-on-year to 1.246 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 77.86% to 57 million yuan [4][6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 30.04% year-on-year to 163 million yuan, with a net profit of 25 million yuan, down 18.37% [4][6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards and introduced a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 173 million, 215 million, and 262 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 52.4, 42.2, and 34.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 28.13%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.72%, down 12.56 percentage points [5] - The company reported a significant increase in R&D expenses, which rose by 24.79% to 83 million yuan, reflecting ongoing investment in research projects [5] - The company recorded a provision for inventory impairment of 129 million yuan due to unsold corn seed inventory [6] - The company has three genetically modified corn varieties that passed preliminary review, increasing the number of marketable varieties [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.166 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.540 billion yuan respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -6.4%, 16.4%, and 13.4% [7][9] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 173 million, 215 million, and 262 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.20, 0.24, and 0.30 yuan [7][9] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 2.1% in 2024 to 7.3% in 2027 [9][10]