证券代码：002120 证券简称：韵达股份 公告编号：2025-025 韵达控股集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东增持公司股份计划的公告 公司控股股东上海罗颉思投资管理有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息内容 真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 特别提示： 二、增持计划的主要内容 1、增持股份的目的：基于对未来持续稳定发展的信心和对公司价值的坚定 认可。 2、增持股份的金额：本次拟增持金额为人民币 10,000-20,000 万元。 3、增持股份的价格：本次增持计划不设价格区间。 4、增持股份的方式：通过深圳证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价、大宗交易 等方式增持公司股份。 5、增持股份的资金来源：自有或自筹资金。 1、韵达控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 5 月 6 日收 到公司控股股东上海罗颉思投资管理有限公司（以下简称"上海罗颉思"）的通 知，基于对未来持续稳定发展的信心和对公司价值的坚定认可，上海罗颉思计划 自本公告披露之日起 6 个月内，通过深圳证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价、大宗 交易等方式增持公司股份， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continuous recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on increased dividends [1] - The shipping sector shows strong performance in container shipping, while oil and dry bulk shipping face pressure [3][4] - The highway sector experienced a rebound in traffic in Q1 2025, while port container business remains robust [4] - The railway passenger transport is stable, but freight transport is under pressure [4] - The airline industry sees steady growth in passenger traffic, although ticket prices are under slight pressure [6] - The express delivery sector exceeded expectations in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth into Q1 2025, despite intense price competition [7] - Cross-border logistics face challenges due to coal market pressures and tariff policies affecting air freight demand [8] Summary by Sections Shipping - Container shipping shows impressive performance, with significant profit growth and stable dividends [15] - Oil shipping and dry bulk shipping face challenges, with fluctuating rates and cautious dividend policies [18][21] - The report notes a strong increase in container shipping rates due to geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics [14][15] Highways - In 2024, highway traffic saw a slight decline, but Q1 2025 traffic improved, leading to increased profits for highway companies [35][38] - The report indicates that highway companies are maintaining high dividend payouts despite previous revenue declines [41][43] Ports - Port container throughput growth outpaced other sectors, benefiting from a favorable international trade environment [44][46] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of container port companies, with significant profit increases [47][48] Railways - Railway passenger volumes remained stable, while freight volumes faced challenges, impacting overall profitability [49] Airlines - The airline sector is experiencing steady passenger growth, but ticket prices are slightly under pressure, affecting profitability [6] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a significant increase in volume in 2024, continuing strong growth into Q1 2025, although competition remains fierce [7] Cross-Border Logistics - Cross-border logistics companies are facing challenges due to market pressures and tariff impacts on air freight demand [8]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has achieved comprehensive profitability for the first time, driven by the growth in e-commerce returns, automation technologies, and improved management practices [2][6][8] Business Growth - In 2024, the average daily business volume in the express delivery industry reached nearly 500 million packages, with major players like YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu exceeding the industry average growth rate of 21% [3][4] - The market share of Zhongtong remains the highest, but the gap with YTO is narrowing, while only Shentong saw an increase in market share compared to 2023 [3] - Reverse logistics and scattered orders have become significant growth sources for express companies, with Jitu reporting an 80% year-on-year increase in reverse and scattered orders [3][4] - Shentong's large customer business grew by 260% in 2024, driven by customized solutions for over 20 industries [4][5] Profit Growth - All eight major listed express companies achieved profitability in 2024, with SF Express reporting a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, the highest since its A-share listing [6][7] - JD Logistics and Shentong experienced significant profit growth, with JD Logistics' net profit increasing by 507.2% year-on-year to 7.088 billion yuan [6][7] - Jitu achieved a net profit of 1.1 million USD, marking its first overall profitability, attributed to refined management and technology applications [7] Industry Transformation - The express delivery sector is undergoing a transformation from labor-intensive to technology-driven operations, with companies like Shentong and Debang reducing employee numbers while increasing efficiency through automation [8][9][10] - SF Express reduced its workforce from 153,125 to 147,189, while increasing average annual salary by 7.4% to 217,000 yuan [8] - Yunda and Debang also reported reductions in employee numbers, with Yunda's workforce decreasing to below 10,000 for the first time [9][10]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed remarkable performance in 2024, with eight major listed companies achieving a total revenue of approximately 791.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.06%, and a net profit of 35.58 billion yuan, a significant increase of 93.67% [1][2] - The industry is benefiting from digital transformation and the introduction of intelligent systems, which enhance logistics efficiency and reduce costs [1][4] Financial Performance - Shentong Express reported the highest net profit growth rate, achieving a revenue of 47.17 billion yuan, up 15.26%, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, up 205.24% [2] - JD Logistics followed with an adjusted net profit growth of 186.8% to 7.9 billion yuan, driven by revenue expansion and refined management [2] - SF Holding's net profit reached 10.17 billion yuan, marking a new high since its listing, supported by supply chain and international business growth [2] - Jitu Express turned around with a net profit of 1.1 billion USD (approximately 7.99 billion yuan) in 2024, recovering from a loss of 11.6 billion USD in 2023 [2] Industry Drivers - The "Express into Villages" initiative has significantly improved logistics networks, with 346,000 village-level logistics service stations established [3] - The rise of live e-commerce contributed to the express delivery sector, with retail sales reaching 4.3 trillion yuan from January to November 2024, accounting for 80% of e-commerce growth [3] Technological Advancements - The express delivery industry is undergoing a technological transformation, with over 90% of large-scale processing centers achieving automation [4] - SF Holding invested 4 billion yuan in automation and logistics infrastructure, increasing its automated sorting rate to 92% and reducing transit costs by 23% compared to three years ago [5] - Yunda Express is enhancing its management efficiency and service quality through continuous digital and intelligent transformation [5] International Expansion - SF Holding has deepened its global presence, winning over 100 overseas supply chain projects, with international revenue growing by 24.81% to 32.16 billion yuan [6] - Yunda Express has expanded its international network, covering over 150 countries, with overseas revenue increasing by 43.13% to 1.03 billion yuan [6] - Other companies like Yunda, Jitu, Zhongtong, and Debang are also accelerating their international strategies through various means [6]

2024 年，公司营业收入为485.4 亿元，同比增长7.9%；归母净利润为19.1 亿元，同比增长17.8%。 2024Q4，公司营业收入为130.3 亿元，同比增长7.3%；归母净利润为5.1 亿元，同比增长9.8%。 2025Q1，公司营业收入为121.9 亿元，同比增长9.3%；归母净利润为3.2 亿元，同比下降22.1%。 事件评论 事件描述 1、行业价格竞争加剧； 2、宏观需求修复不及预期； 3、油价及人工成本大幅上行。 份额重回提升，业绩稳健增长。2024 年，公司件量同比增长26.1%至237.8 亿件，份额同比提升0.5pct， 2021 年以来全年市占率再度实现提升。2024 年，公司单价同比下降12.3%（同比下降0.28 元）至2.01 元。2024 年单票派费成本/运输成本/分拣成本同比下降6.8%/27.1%/14.1%，对应下降0.08/0.14/0.05 元， 伴随规模快速增长，公司积极优化车辆配载和路由规划，提高车辆装载率推动运输成本大幅优化。2024 年单票费用同比下降31.7%（同比下降0.04 元）至0.08 元，公司强化总部降本控费。最终，2024 年公司 单票归母净 ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has shown significant growth in 2024, with major companies achieving profitability for the first time, driven by e-commerce returns and automation technologies [2][6][4]. Industry Overview - The total express delivery volume and revenue in 2024 reached 1.745 billion packages and 1.4 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year growth of 21% and 13% respectively [2]. - The market structure is becoming more balanced, with the share of express delivery volume and revenue in eastern regions declining while central and western regions are increasing [2]. Company Performance - Major express companies reported daily package volumes increasing from 40-70 million in 2022 to 60-90 million in 2024 [2]. - SF Express achieved a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan with a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, marking a 23.51% increase in net profit [3][6]. - JD Logistics reported a remarkable net profit growth of 507.2% to 7.088 billion yuan [3][6]. - Yunda and YTO Express experienced a decline in net profit due to intense price competition [2]. Growth Drivers - The rise in e-commerce return rates has significantly contributed to the growth of reverse logistics, with companies like Jitu Express reporting an 80% year-on-year increase in reverse and scattered orders [4][5]. - Companies are focusing on enhancing their reverse logistics capabilities and optimizing revenue structures through scattered order business [4][5]. Automation and Workforce Changes - The industry is increasingly adopting automation technologies such as drones and smart sorting systems, leading to improved operational efficiency [2][9]. - Several companies, including SF Express and Yunda, have reduced their workforce while increasing employee salaries, indicating a shift towards technology-driven operations [9][10]. Market Competition - Despite the overall growth, competition remains fierce, particularly in pricing, which has affected profit margins for some companies [7][6]. - The market share of leading companies is shifting, with Zhongtong maintaining the top position but with narrowing gaps to YTO Express [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a rapid profit growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 48.543 billion yuan (+7.9%) and a non-net profit of 1.64 billion yuan (+18.3%) for the year [1][9]. - The company has experienced a recovery in business volume growth, with a market share stabilizing despite significant year-on-year declines in single-package prices due to intense industry competition [2][9]. - The company has seen a rebound in capacity utilization and a significant decrease in single-package costs, although the first quarter's profitability per package has declined due to increased competition [3][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. The non-net profit is expected to be 1.64 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.3% increase [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show a revenue of 12.19 billion yuan (+9.3%) but a decline in non-net profit to 308 million yuan (-19.9%) [1][9]. Market Position - The company has adopted a relatively aggressive pricing strategy, leading to a 12.3% decrease in single-package express delivery prices for 2024. The prices for the fourth quarter and the first quarter were approximately 2.02 yuan and 1.98 yuan, respectively [2][9]. - The business volume growth for 2024 is expected to be 26.1%, with the fourth quarter and first quarter showing year-on-year increases of 22.4% and 22.9%, respectively [2][9]. Cost and Profitability - The company's core operating costs have decreased significantly, with the single-package core operating cost (transit + transportation) at 0.68 yuan, down 21.9% year-on-year. The first quarter's single-package operating cost further optimized to 0.62 yuan, a decrease of 18.4% [3][17]. - The single-package non-net profit for the fourth quarter was stable at 0.07 yuan, but it dropped to 0.05 yuan in the first quarter of 2025 due to intensified price competition [3][17]. Future Outlook - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 2.0 billion yuan, 2.33 billion yuan, and 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 16.2%, and 11.5%, respectively [4][19]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 10X and 9X for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][19].

Core Viewpoint - Yunda Co., Ltd. has achieved remarkable financial performance and sustainable development in 2024, driven by precise strategic planning and efficient operational management, positioning itself as a leading global comprehensive logistics service provider [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yunda achieved a revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.92%, marking the highest revenue for the same period since its listing [1]. - The net profit reached 1.914 billion yuan, up 17.77%, maintaining growth for four consecutive years [1]. - The total express delivery volume reached 23.783 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 26.14%, exceeding the industry average growth rate by 4.64 percentage points [1]. - For Q1 2025, the total revenue was 12.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.26%, also the highest for the same period since listing [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company implemented a "1+N+AI" multi-layered technology strategy, enhancing its digital capabilities and operational efficiency [1]. - Total expenses for sales, management, finance, and R&D in 2024 were 1.978 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.85% year-on-year, with the cost per parcel dropping to 0.08 yuan, down 31.7% [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 5.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.18% [2]. ESG Performance - Yunda has been recognized for its ESG efforts, achieving A-level ratings in both the CSI and National Securities ESG ratings in 2024 [4]. - The company reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 40.38% and energy consumption by 36.86% in 2024 [4]. - The installation of photovoltaic roofs in 19 logistics centers resulted in a solar power generation of 16.1578 million kWh, an increase of 56.57% [5]. Social Responsibility - Yunda has focused on employee development, conducting 26,900 training sessions with a total duration of 3.1648 million hours in 2024, achieving a 100% training coverage rate [6]. - The customer complaint resolution rate reached 98.09%, with customer satisfaction exceeding 98% [6]. - The company has expanded its logistics network to cover over 99.6% of county-level areas and 99.8% of town-level areas, helping farmers increase their income by over 30% [6]. Governance - Yunda has enhanced its governance framework by optimizing its internal control system and conducting third-party audits to ensure effective operation [7]. - The company engaged with 526 investors in 2024, enhancing communication and trust with stakeholders [7]. - Yunda aims to continue advancing its sustainable development strategy and strengthen its ESG governance framework [7].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the "Rural Express" initiative and e-commerce business have become significant drivers for the growth of express delivery companies in 2024 [2][4]. Financial Performance - YTO Express reported a revenue of 69.033 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.67%, with a net profit of 4.012 billion yuan, up 7.78% [3]. - Yunda Express achieved a revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, a 7.92% increase, and a net profit of 1.914 billion yuan, up 17.77% [3]. - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 47.169 billion yuan, a 15.26% increase, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, a significant rise of 205.24% [3]. - The overall express delivery business volume in China reached 1.758 billion pieces, a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [3]. Market Trends - The "Rural Express" initiative has led to the establishment of 346,000 village-level logistics service stations across the country in 2024 [4]. - The live e-commerce sector contributed significantly to the express delivery industry, with retail sales reaching 4.3 trillion yuan from January to November 2024, accounting for 80% of the e-commerce sector's growth [4]. Operational Efficiency - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with Yunda reporting a 21.91% decrease in core operating costs per ticket in 2024 [8]. - YTO Express has implemented demand-based delivery and improved delivery performance, resulting in a nearly 28% reduction in false signing rates [5]. Pricing Pressure - YTO Express experienced a decline in revenue per ticket to 2.3 yuan, a decrease of 4.86%, while the cost per ticket fell to 2.09 yuan, down 4.04% [7]. - The average price for express delivery in the industry was reported at 8.02 yuan per ticket, indicating a continuous downward trend [7]. Technological Advancements - Companies are increasingly adopting unmanned delivery technologies, with Shentong testing smart-assisted driving vehicles on express routes [9]. - YTO Express is exploring the application of autonomous driving technology to enhance transportation efficiency and reduce costs [8].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 韵达股份(002120) 投资评级 增持 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 韵达股份（002120.SZ）点评：10 月业 务量同比+32%，单票收入环比小幅提 升 韵达股份（002120.SZ）2024 年中报点 评：24H1 盈利同比增长 20%，看好经营 改善 国内电商快递龙头之一，经营及件量 拐点有望延续 [Table_Title] 韵达股份（002120.SZ）点评：件量延续高 增，单票核心成本及费用持续优化 25Q1 实现营业收入 121.89 亿元，同比+9.26%，归母净利润 3.21 亿元，同 比-22.15%，扣非归母净利润 3.08 亿元，同比-19.85%。 点评： ➢ 单 ...