中邮证券有限责任公司曾凡喆近期对韵达股份（002120）进行研究并发布了研究报告《单量维持高速增长，期 待量利再平衡》，给予韵达股份买入评级。 韵达股份 l韵达股份披露2024年年报及2025年一季报 韵达股份披露2024年年报及2025年一季报。2024年公司营业收入485.4亿元，同比增长7.9%，归母净利润19.1亿 元，同比增长17.8%，其中第四季度营业收入130.3亿元，同比增长7.3%，归母净利润5.1亿元，同比增长9.8%。 2025年一季度公司营业收入121.9亿元，同比增长9.3%，实现归母净利润3.2亿元，同比下降22.1%。 l维持竞争身位，单量高速增长，营收再创新高 2024年得益于经济稳健增长及持续扩大的线上消费需求，全国快递业务量保持较高水平增速，公司业务量保持 高速增长，全年快递业务完成量237.8亿票，同比增长26.1%，市场份额保持行业第三。2025年一季度公司快递 业务完成量60.8亿票，同比增长22.9%，保持上升势头。因快递市场下沉及行业竞争，公司快递业务单票收入 同比有所下降，2024年为2.01元，同比下降12.3%，2025年一季度为1.98元，同比下降10.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [6][13]. Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in parcel volume, with a 26.1% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume in 2024, maintaining the third-largest market share in the industry [4]. - Despite the high growth in parcel volume, the average revenue per parcel has decreased, with a 12.3% decline in 2024 and a 10.0% decline in the first quarter of 2025 [4]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, achieving a 13% reduction in per-parcel costs in 2024, with significant decreases in various expense ratios [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of artificial intelligence in its operations, enhancing service quality and cost control, leading to a potential balance between volume and profit in the future [6]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 48.54 billion yuan, a 7.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.91 billion yuan, up 17.8% [3][9]. - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 54.67 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.03 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 12.6% and 6.1% respectively [9][12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.66 yuan in 2024 to 0.70 yuan in 2025 [9][12].

Summary of Yunda Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yunda Express (韵达股份) - **Industry**: Express Delivery and Logistics Key Points Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the profit per ticket decreased by approximately 1.8 cents year-on-year, primarily due to non-operating factors (such as sorting optimization costs and asset provisions) and market price competition, with non-operating factors contributing about 1 cent to the decline [2][3] - Operating cash flow in Q1 2025 fell by 63% year-on-year, mainly due to relaxed prepayment requirements for franchisees and reduced collection standards to support franchisee operations [2][9] Capital Expenditure - Total capital expenditure for 2024 is projected to be around 2.4 billion yuan, with a slight decrease to about 2 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on equipment maintenance, vehicle replenishment, and personnel R&D [2][4][6] - Capital expenditure will be concentrated in the second half of the year, especially in Q4, with approximately 40% allocated to new project payments [6][5] Cost Management - The average cost per ticket is expected to continue decreasing in 2025, with a projected decline of about 9%, bringing the average cost to around 0.62 yuan [2][8] - Technological applications, such as automation and unmanned vehicles, are anticipated to further reduce last-mile delivery costs by 0.2 to 0.3 yuan [2][8] Market Competition - The competitive landscape remains intense in 2025, with some regions experiencing aggressive price competition, although overall market price competition is expected to be predictable and manageable [4][11][12] - The company maintains a neutral to optimistic outlook on price competition, emphasizing the importance of balancing market share and profitability [11][12] Operational Efficiency - The company's capacity utilization is currently between 80% and 85%, with expectations to increase by 5 to 10 percentage points by year-end [15][16] - The company is focusing on enhancing its operational capabilities and efficiency through technology and infrastructure improvements, including the grid warehouse project, which aims to increase automation across its network [14][17] Strategic Focus - Yunda Express is prioritizing cost control, cash flow management, and leveraging technological advancements to optimize service efficiency and cost capabilities [17] - The company aims to enhance its market competitiveness while maintaining gross margins, indicating a strong recovery to pre-pandemic levels in terms of volume, cost management, and cash flow [17] Miscellaneous - The company has seen a resurgence in its scatter business, with a current scale of approximately 3.5 million pieces, indicating growth potential compared to previous quarters [13] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.

Core Viewpoint - Yunda Co., Ltd. reported a strong performance in 2024, with significant growth in business volume and net profit, despite facing intense competition and regulatory challenges in the express delivery industry [1][3][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yunda achieved a total business volume of 23.783 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 26.14% [1][3]. - The company generated operating revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, up 7.92% from the previous year [1][3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.914 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.77% [1][3]. - The profit margin improved, with total profit amounting to 2.613 billion yuan, a 19.52% increase year-on-year [3]. Competitive Landscape - Yunda maintained its position as the "third" player in the Tongda system, despite fierce competition from Shentong and Jitu [1][9]. - The company faced regulatory scrutiny from the State Post Bureau due to issues related to advertising materials in express deliveries [1][9]. - Yunda's single parcel revenue decreased by 12.3% to 2.01 yuan, which is among the lowest in the Tongda system [3][4]. Cost Management - Yunda reported a significant reduction in operational costs, with single parcel costs decreasing by 13% to approximately 1.83 yuan [3][4]. - The core operating cost per parcel was 0.68 yuan, down 21.9% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company implemented measures such as precise cargo forecasting and optimization of transportation routes to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [4]. Technological Advancements - Yunda is actively investing in AI and unmanned technologies, having deployed the DeepSeek model for operational data analysis [2][7]. - The company aims to enhance service quality and operational efficiency through a multi-layered technology strategy, integrating AI into various operational aspects [7][8]. - Despite a decrease in R&D investment to 293 million yuan, the company remains optimistic about the application of new technologies in the logistics sector [8]. Infrastructure and Network Expansion - By the end of 2024, Yunda established 73 optimized transfer centers and had over 47,750 first-level franchisees, achieving 100% franchise coverage [4]. - The company’s service network covers 31 provinces and municipalities, with over 95,000 end-point facilities [4]. Shareholder Changes - Alibaba reduced its stake in Yunda from 2% to 0.71% over the past year, indicating a shift in investment strategy [5].

Group 1: Smartphone Market - Xiaomi has regained the top position in the Chinese smartphone market after ten years, with a shipment of 13.3 million units and a market share of 18.6%, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.9% [2] - Huawei shipped 11.2 million units with a market share of 15.7%, showing a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - Apple experienced a decline, shipping 9.8 million units and a market share of 13.7%, down 10% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Apple is restructuring its teams, moving its robotics team to the hardware department, indicating dissatisfaction with its AI and machine learning leadership [3] - Cyberspace Group has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors being CICC and China Galaxy International [4] - Warner Pharmaceuticals has received approval for its bismuth potassium citrate granules, which will enhance its market competitiveness [12] Group 3: Financial Performance - CICC reported a net profit of 2.042 billion yuan for Q1, a year-on-year increase of 64.85%, with revenues of 5.721 billion yuan, up 47.69% [9] - WuXi AppTec achieved a net profit of 3.672 billion yuan in Q1, marking a year-on-year growth of over 89% [10] - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals reported a net profit of 1.333 billion yuan in Q1, down 13.56% year-on-year [11] Group 4: Consumer Goods - Lao Feng Xiang reported a net profit of 613 million yuan in Q1, a decrease of 23.55% year-on-year, with revenues of 17.521 billion yuan, down 31.64% [13] - Three squirrels reported a net profit of 239 million yuan in Q1, a decline of 22.46% year-on-year, with revenues of 3.723 billion yuan, up 2.13% [16] Group 5: New Initiatives - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation has commenced construction on a 30,000-ton carbon fiber project, expected to be completed by 2027, supporting the new materials industry [22][23] - ZTE is entering the companion robot market, planning to launch products focused on security monitoring and emotional companionship [6] Group 6: Market Trends - TikTok is implementing new regulations to combat malicious marketing accounts, introducing a health score mechanism for accounts [8] - The dining reservation volume for the upcoming holiday has surged, with Haidilao receiving over 25,000 reservations for the first day of the holiday [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - In March, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year volume growth of 20.3%, with a total of 16.656 billion packages delivered, slightly down from a cumulative growth of 22.4% in January and February [2][10]. - SF Express saw a significant volume growth of 25.4%, outperforming other companies in the Tongda system, and its market share increased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][17]. - The price competition remains intense within the industry, with year-on-year declines in average revenue per package for Tongda companies, including a 7.6% drop for YTO Express and an 11.7% drop for SF Express [3][27][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The express delivery sector's volume growth remains robust, with March figures showing a 20.3% increase year-on-year, despite a slight slowdown from earlier months [2][12]. - The growth in same-city deliveries was 4.3%, while intercity deliveries grew by 21.9% [12][14]. 2. Business Volume - SF Express's business volume growth reached 25.4%, significantly higher than its competitors, with a market share increase of 0.3 percentage points [2][17]. - YTO Express, Shentong, and Yunda's growth rates were close to the industry average, with YTO showing a slight edge [2][17]. 3. Revenue per Package - The average revenue per package for Tongda companies saw declines, with Shentong, Yunda, and YTO experiencing year-on-year decreases of 4.3%, 5.8%, and 7.6% respectively [3][27]. - SF Express's average revenue per package fell by 11.7% year-on-year, attributed to an increased proportion of e-commerce packages [3][29]. 4. Structural Changes - The industry concentration ratio (CR8) was 86.9 in March, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.8 but a slight decrease of 0.2 from the previous month [33][35]. - The market share of the four publicly listed companies in the A-share market was 49.8%, a slight increase from 49.6% year-on-year, driven by YTO's market share ambitions and SF's strong growth [33][36]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on industry leaders with superior service quality, particularly Zhongtong and YTO, as the industry shifts towards prioritizing service over cost advantages [4][37].

Core Viewpoint - Yunda Holdings reported a revenue of 48.543 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.92%, with a net profit of 1.643 billion yuan, up 18.26% from the previous year, indicating strong operational performance and effective cost management [1][6] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 5.087 billion yuan, a significant increase of 50.18% year-on-year [1][6] - The net asset scale reached 20.467 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.79% [1][6] - The total expenses decreased by 13.9% to 1.978 billion yuan, with the cost per package dropping to 0.08 yuan, a reduction of 31.7% [6] Operational Efficiency - The gross margin for the express delivery business improved to 9.3%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company optimized its operational network by establishing 939 grid warehouses and 322 efficient collection warehouses, enhancing operational efficiency [4] - The utilization rate of capacity increased significantly due to a rise in business volume, leading to scale and marginal cost effects [2][4] Strategic Focus - Yunda Holdings is focusing on building a cost-leading advantage through refined management and digital empowerment, with key areas of focus being "strong network, digital intelligence, cost control, and expense reduction" for 2024 [2] - The company has established a comprehensive service network covering all 31 provinces and municipalities in China, with a 100% coverage rate in cities above the prefecture level [3] Technological Advancement - The company is actively integrating AI and unmanned technologies into its operations, aiming to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [7][8] - Yunda has implemented a multi-layered technology strategy, "1+N+AI," to leverage digital capabilities and improve logistics quality [8][9] Market Expansion - The demand for rural express services is expanding, with the company increasing its coverage in county and town networks to over 99.6% and 99.8%, respectively [5] - Yunda has added 1,084 new town outlets, significantly extending its service range in rural areas [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 9.69 [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 485.4 billion and a net profit of RMB 19.1 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.9% and 17.8% respectively. However, the net profit fell short of expectations due to a greater-than-expected decline in per-package pricing [1]. - The company is expected to optimize transportation resources and improve efficiency through automation and smart logistics, which will help reduce costs faster than revenue declines [1]. - The company maintained a strong growth in package volume, achieving a 26.1% year-on-year increase, while the average price per package decreased by 12.3% [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 22.9% increase in package volume, but net profit decreased by 22.1% due to rising operating costs and intense market competition [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a significant reduction in per-package costs, down 14.4% to RMB 1.85, with core operating costs decreasing by 21.9%. The gross profit per package increased by 20.6% to RMB 0.17 [2]. - The company’s total expenses decreased by 13.9% to RMB 19.8 billion in 2024, indicating effective cost management [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down by 14% and 16% to RMB 21.9 billion and RMB 24.4 billion respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at RMB 26.0 billion. This adjustment is primarily due to increased industry competition [4]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 12.8x for 2025, with a target price adjusted to RMB 9.69 from RMB 12.18 [4]. Market Position - The company’s package volume growth outpaced the industry average, positioning it as a strong competitor within the logistics sector [2]. - The average price decline was more pronounced than the industry average, indicating competitive pricing pressures [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yunda Holdings (韵达股份) [1][7][24] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 48.54 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, and a net profit of 1.914 billion, up 17.8% year-on-year [1][3] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.19 billion, a 9.3% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 22.1% to 320 million [1][3] - The report highlights the company's leading growth in business volume, with a total of 23.783 billion parcels delivered in 2024, a 26.1% increase year-on-year [2][9] Financial Performance - **2024 Financial Data**: - Revenue: 48.54 billion, up 7.9% - Net Profit: 1.914 billion, up 17.8% - Non-recurring Net Profit: 1.643 billion, up 18.3% - Non-recurring Net Profit Margin: 3.4% [1][3][8] - **2025 Q1 Financial Data**: - Revenue: 12.19 billion, up 9.3% - Net Profit: 320 million, down 22.1% - Non-recurring Net Profit: 310 million, down 19.9% - Non-recurring Net Profit Margin: 2.5% [1][3][8] Business Volume and Market Share - The company completed a total parcel volume of 23.783 billion in 2024, with a market share of 13.58% [2][9] - In Q1 2025, the completed parcel volume was 6.076 billion, with a market share of 13.46% [2][9] Pricing and Profitability - The average revenue per parcel in 2024 was 2.01 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year [2][9] - The average net profit per parcel in 2024 was 0.08 yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, it was 0.053 yuan, down 36.6% [2][9] Future Outlook - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2026, estimating a net profit of 1.92 billion and 2.17 billion respectively, with EPS of 0.66 and 0.75 yuan [7][9] - The target price for the stock is set at 8.63 yuan, indicating a potential upside of approximately 21% from the current price of 7.14 yuan [3][7]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In the first quarter, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 150.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and six other departments announced an optimization of the departure tax refund policy, raising the cash refund limit to 20,000 yuan [4][6] Group 2: Company Earnings - Gujing Gongjiu reported a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.22%, and proposed a dividend of 50 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Gree Electric reported a net profit of 32.185 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.91%, and proposed a dividend of 20 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Luzhou Laojiao reported a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, and proposed a dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Yake Technology reported a net profit of 872 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.41%, and proposed a dividend of 2.6 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Yunda Holdings reported a net profit of 1.914 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.77%, and proposed a dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares [8] Group 3: Significant Corporate Announcements - National City Mining reported a net profit of 612 million yuan for the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18,279.65%, primarily due to increased investment income from the sale of subsidiaries [9] - Zhenghe Ecology signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Yanshan (Hebei) Cultural Tourism Development Group, planning a total investment of 2 billion yuan for a tourism integration project [9] - New Life Fortune announced plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire 100% of Guangzhou Jinnan Magnetic Materials, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [9] - Chengdi Xiangjiang announced that its subsidiary won a bid for a project with a contract value of 1.632 billion yuan, with a construction period of 92 days [10]