Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.641 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 44.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 631 million yuan, down 73.03% year-on-year, which was below previous expectations [2][7]. - The company is currently facing high internal and external pressures, and Q4 is expected to continue adjustments, with hopes for improvement after inventory digestion [2][7]. - The company announced a cash dividend rate of no less than 70% and a total amount of no less than 7 billion yuan (including tax), which supports an estimated dividend yield of approximately 4.4% for 2024 [2][7]. - Given the guaranteed dividend, the investment value is maintained [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 27.516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.14%, and a net profit of 8.579 billion yuan, down 15.92% year-on-year [7]. - The Q3 gross margin was 66.24%, a decrease of 8.63 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to promotional discounts [7]. - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 29.029 billion yuan, 29.015 billion yuan, and 29.101 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.048 billion yuan, 8.061 billion yuan, and 8.097 billion yuan [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 15, 15, and 15 respectively [7][8]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 127.174 billion yuan [5]. - The current price per share is 84.63 yuan [5]. Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a cash dividend policy with a minimum payout ratio of 70%, which is expected to support investor confidence [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in Q3 2024, with total revenue of 46.41 billion yuan, down 44.82% year-on-year, and net profit of 6.31 billion yuan, down 73.03% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [1][2]. - The company is undergoing an accelerated adjustment to alleviate market pressure, focusing on inventory reduction and channel adjustments due to intense competition and weak demand in the industry [2][3]. - Profitability has been notably impacted by rising expense ratios, with a gross margin of 66.24%, down 8.63 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.61%, down 14.23 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 275.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.14%, and a net profit of 85.79 billion yuan, down 15.92% year-on-year [1]. - Q3 2024 saw a total revenue of 46.41 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.31 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue decline in Q3 was attributed to intensified competition in the Jiangsu market and overall weak industry demand, leading to a focus on inventory clearance [2]. - The sales cash collection in Q3 was 64.2 billion yuan, down 33.5% year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards to 83.9 billion yuan, 84.6 billion yuan, and 89.7 billion yuan, representing reductions of 17.8%, 22.2%, and 22.6% respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14 for the forecasted years, with a projected dividend payout of 70 billion yuan for 2024, yielding a dividend rate of approximately 5.8% [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 80.52 CNY [5] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 revenues of 4.641 billion CNY, a decrease of 44.82% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company dropping by 73.03% to 631 million CNY [1] - The company is facing pressure in the mid-to-high-end and banquet markets, leading to a forecasted decline in revenue and profit for 2024-2026 [3] - The company is actively adjusting its operational pace and focusing on strengthening banquet channels and inventory indicators [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 gross margin decreased by 8.63 percentage points to 66.24%, and net margin decreased by 14.38 percentage points to 13.52% [2] - Operating cash flow for Q3 2024 fell by 65.31% year-on-year to 1.415 billion CNY, indicating cash flow pressure [2] - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 29.656 billion CNY, 28.999 billion CNY, and 30.430 billion CNY, representing declines of 10.75% and 1.91% in 2024 and 2025, respectively [3][4] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 8.215 billion CNY, 8.276 billion CNY, and 8.736 billion CNY, with a corresponding PE ratio of 14.77X, 14.66X, and 13.89X [4][9] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 79.663 billion CNY by 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 23.54% [8][9] - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 10.647 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decrease from previous years [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][8] Core Insights - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with revenue down 44.82% year-on-year and net profit down 73.03% [1][2] - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment in its market and product strategy, focusing on national market expansion and optimizing sales strategies [2] - Despite current challenges, the company's brand and channel capabilities are expected to support future growth, with a projected dividend yield of 5.8% providing a safety margin for investors [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 27.516 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.579 billion yuan, down 15.92% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.641 billion yuan and a net profit of 631 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 44.82% and 73.03%, respectively [1][2] - The company's sales net profit margin decreased by 14.39 percentage points to 13.52%, and gross profit margin decreased by 8.63 percentage points to 66.24% in Q3 2024 [2] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 29.052 billion yuan, 27.221 billion yuan, and 28.419 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.951 billion yuan, 7.210 billion yuan, and 7.670 billion yuan [5][6] - The expected EPS for the same years is 5.28 yuan, 4.79 yuan, and 5.09 yuan, with P/E ratios of 15, 17, and 16, respectively [5][6]

洋河股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002304） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure on performance, with total revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 at 27.516 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.14% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 8.579 billion yuan, down 15.92% year-on-year [2] - The company is undergoing a proactive adjustment to its growth strategy, focusing on quality over speed, which has led to a notable decline in profitability [2][3] - The company is adjusting its product structure, facing challenges in the mid-to-high-end market segments, particularly with key products like Dream 3 and Dream 6+ [3] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - For Q3 2024, total revenue was 4.641 billion yuan, down 44.82% year-on-year, and net profit was 631 million yuan, a decrease of 73.03% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 73.81%, down 1.96 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 31.17%, down 2.59 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 3.458 billion yuan, a decline of 20.38% year-on-year [2] Product Strategy - The company is focusing on core products across various price segments, but sales in the mid-to-high-end range are under pressure due to overall industry challenges [3] - The company has initiated a large-scale promotional campaign for its high-end products, maintaining brand integrity while adjusting its sales strategies [3] Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 to 5.56, 5.43, and 5.84 yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 for 2024, indicating a valuation that remains attractive despite the recent performance challenges [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, which has been downgraded [3][6]. Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with revenue down 45% year-on-year and net profit down 73% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 27.52 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.1% year-on-year, and net profit was 8.58 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year [4][6]. - The company is actively releasing channel risks, leading to a larger decline in revenue and net profit compared to Q2 2024. The white liquor industry is facing weakened demand, and competition in the domestic market is intensifying [4][5]. - The company has increased promotional efforts, including discounts and gifts, to stabilize its market share in the domestic market, although the actual sales performance may be better than the apparent figures [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.64 billion yuan, down 44.8% year-on-year, and net profit of 631 million yuan, down 73% year-on-year. The gross profit margin decreased by 8.63 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product structure pressure and increased promotional efforts [4][5]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 1.415 billion yuan, a decrease of 65.3% year-on-year, with sales cash receipts down 33.5% year-on-year [5][6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to take time to clear channel risks, with revised revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 at 30.006 billion yuan, 28.412 billion yuan, and 29.802 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -9.4%, -5.3%, and +4.9% respectively [6][7]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 8.522 billion yuan, 7.970 billion yuan, and 8.515 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -6.5%, and +5.9% respectively [6][7]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.0 for 2024 and 16.0 for 2025, with a projected dividend payout of no less than 7 billion yuan this year, resulting in a dividend yield of 6% [6][8].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——洋河股份 2024Q3 业绩点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.01 调整延续，静待回暖 洋河股份(002304) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|-----------------------|-------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 李耀 ( 分析师 ) | | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38675854 | | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | liyao022899@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880520090001 | | 本报告导读： 2024Q3 公司业绩低于预期，深度调整延续；考虑到 ...

公 司 报 告 公 司 季 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024年10月31日 食品饮料 洋河股份(002304.SZ) 基本面承压，期待改善 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 股价:80.39元 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------------------------| | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 公司网址 | www.chinayanghe.com | | 大股东 / 持股 | 江苏洋河集团有限公司 /34.18% | | 实际控制人 | 宿迁市国有资产监督管理委员会 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 1,506 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 ) | 1,503 | | | | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 ) | | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) A ( ) | 1,211 1,208 | | 流通 股市值 亿元 ( ) | 35.51 | | 每股净资产 元 资产负债率 (%) | 16.5 | | 行情走势图 | | 相关研究报告 【平安证券】招商蛇口（001979.SZ）*季报点评*销 售稳居前列，投资强度增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.52 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.58 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year [2] - The company is facing short-term pressure on profitability due to increased promotional expenses and a decline in sales revenue, particularly in Q3 2024, where revenue dropped by 44.8% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is adjusting its operational strategy to prioritize channel inventory clearance and strengthen relationships with distributors, aiming for long-term healthy development [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the gross margin was 73.8%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 31.2%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the gross margin fell to 66.2%, a decline of 8.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 13.6%, down 14.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company expects revenues of 30.04 billion, 31.81 billion, and 34.70 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 8.54 billion, 9.07 billion, and 9.91 billion yuan for the same years [3][6] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a decrease in cash received from sales, totaling 24.23 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, down 5.1% year-on-year [3] - The company has announced a cash dividend plan, committing to distribute no less than 70% of the annual net profit as dividends from 2024 to 2026, with a minimum of 7 billion yuan per year [3]