行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 03 月 22 日 国产模型持续迭代，泡泡玛特财报 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 将发布 看好 ——互联网传媒周报 20260316-20260320 本期投资提示： 相关研究 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.c ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - Domestic large models are continuously iterating, with significant advancements such as MiniMax's M2.7 model and Xiaomi's MiMo-V2-Pro, which enhance productivity tasks and leverage infrastructure advantages like low electricity costs and high talent density [2]. - The internet and cloud computing sectors are experiencing a significant amount of pessimism, with concerns about AI investments impacting profit margins. However, the report emphasizes that data and user engagement are crucial for success in the AI era, and advancements in AI capabilities will be key to reversing negative narratives [2]. - The gaming industry shows signs of recovery, with expected upward trends in profitability due to favorable regulatory changes and a rich supply of new game licenses. The report highlights several upcoming game releases that could exceed market expectations [2]. - The collectible toy sector, particularly companies like Pop Mart, is identified as a bright spot in consumer spending, with growth driven by strong brand engagement and expansion into international markets [2]. - Recommended stocks include Alibaba, Tencent, Bilibili, and several gaming companies, while also highlighting potential opportunities in AI infrastructure and cloud computing [2]. Summary by Sections Internet and Cloud Computing - The report notes that major internet companies like Bilibili and Tencent have seen significant stock declines post-earnings, reflecting market concerns about AI investments. However, it argues that the data and user engagement from these platforms are essential for thriving in the AI landscape [2]. - Tencent Cloud and Alibaba Cloud are projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with Tencent Cloud's enterprise service revenue expected to grow by 22% year-over-year [2]. Gaming Industry - The gaming sector is characterized by a PE ratio slightly below 15x, indicating a potential bottoming out. The report anticipates that the reduction of overseas taxes will enhance profit margins for domestic game developers [2]. - Upcoming game releases are expected to drive revenue growth, with several titles set to launch in March and April 2026 [2]. Collectible Toys - Pop Mart is expected to alleviate concerns regarding single IP volatility, with growth driven by the ability to create popular new IPs and products, as well as increased store density in North America [2]. - The report highlights the potential for more IPs and product lines to launch overseas, particularly in the U.S., Japan, and Southeast Asia [2]. Recommendations - The report recommends stocks in various sectors, including cloud computing (Alibaba, NetEase Cloud Music), internet (Tencent, Bilibili), gaming (37 Interactive Entertainment, Giant Network), and high-dividend stocks (Fenzhong Media) [2].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant changes in Google's payment policies, which are expected to benefit high-quality overseas game developers by improving profit margins and operational autonomy [5] - The overseas revenue from self-developed games in China is projected to reach USD 20.455 billion in 2025, maintaining a steady growth trend [5] - The introduction of third-party payment systems and application stores is anticipated to enhance the competitive landscape for game distribution platforms [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 825.13, with a 52-week high of 1021.75 and a low of 591.71 [1] Recent Developments - Google announced a significant reduction in its service fees from 30% to 20% or lower, which is expected to alleviate the financial burden on developers relying on in-app purchases (IAP) [5] - The new policy allows developers to utilize third-party payment systems, thereby increasing their operational independence and reducing costs [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with a high proportion of overseas game revenue, such as Century Huatong, Giant Network, and Perfect World, as well as those with third-party platform capabilities like Xindong Company, Tencent, and NetEase [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the media industry [4][41]. Core Insights - The media industry experienced a decline of 3.51% during the week, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index (0.19%) and the ChiNext index (2.51%) [1][11]. - Key companies that performed well include China Science Publishing, Shunwang Technology, ST Rebate, and Youche Technology, while companies like Kaiying Network, CITIC Publishing, Leo Group, and BlueFocus Media saw significant declines [1][11]. - Major developments include ByteDance and Tencent launching products compatible with OpenClaw, and local cultural industry support policies being gradually implemented [1][15][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector ranked 26th in terms of weekly performance among all sectors, with a notable decline of 3.51% [1][12][13]. - The top three films for the week generated a total box office of 3.40 billion yuan, with "Fast Life 3" leading at 1.18 billion yuan [2][18][22]. Key Developments - The launch of ArkClaw by ByteDance's Volcano Engine aims to address challenges faced by AI agents in real-world applications [15][16]. - Tencent's WorkBuddy was introduced to simplify the deployment of AI agents, enhancing productivity tools for office environments [16][17]. - The xAI Grok 4.20 model achieved a significant performance milestone with a non-hallucination rate of 78% [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests capitalizing on opportunities in the AI application sector and the gaming industry, particularly focusing on companies like Giant Network, Gigabit, Kaiying Network, and Xindong Company [3][37]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the IP trend and gaming sectors, recommending investments in companies like Pop Mart for bottom recovery opportunities [3][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the media and internet industry [4] Core Insights - The media industry experienced a decline of 3.23% from March 9 to March 15, 2026, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.70% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.76% [12] - Key sectors such as gaming, television broadcasting, film, advertising, digital media, and publishing saw respective declines of 3.45%, 1.70%, 4.18%, 3.83%, 3.36%, and 0.78% [12] - The report highlights significant developments in AI applications, gaming, and film sectors, indicating potential growth areas [8][36] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The media industry (Shenwan) declined by 3.23% during the week of March 9-15, 2026, compared to a 0.19% increase in the CSI 300 index [12] - The gaming sector specifically saw a decline of 3.45% [12] 2. Key Industry Data 2.1 AI Applications - OpenRouter platform token call volume reached 16.9 trillion, up 14.19% week-on-week, with domestic models dominating the top five [18] - Notable downloads for AI applications on iOS included Deepseek at 31.13 million, with a week-on-week increase of 7.39% [18] 2.2 Gaming - Apple reduced the commission rate for in-app purchases in China from 30% to 25%, and for eligible small businesses from 15% to 12% [3] - The top five mobile games on iOS in China as of March 14, 2026, were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," "Fearless Contract: Source Action," "Delta Action," and "Endless Winter" [22] - The overseas revenue for Chinese mobile games in February saw a significant increase of 221% [25] 2.3 Film - Domestic box office revenue for the week of March 9-15 was 372 million yuan, with 13 films set to release the following week [31] - The top film was "Racing Life 3," grossing 128.99 million yuan, accounting for 34.60% of the total box office [34] 3. Industry Key Events and Announcements - Tencent's AI assistant "WorkBuddy" was officially launched on March 9, 2026, enhancing productivity tools [35] - Nvidia introduced the Nemotron 3 Super AI model, featuring 120 billion parameters, significantly boosting throughput [35] - Baidu launched a zero-deployment service called DuClaw, facilitating easier access to AI tools [35] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism towards AI applications and cultural exports, recommending focus on gaming, IP, short dramas, marketing, and publishing sectors [36] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Giant Network, Perfect World, and Mango Super Media among others [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gaming industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2]. Core Insights - Apple's recent reduction of the standard commission rate from 30% to 25% is expected to save game developers approximately 4.5 billion RMB annually, enhancing profits and potentially increasing investment in R&D and marketing [2]. - Google's phased reform of its service fees, reducing the standard IAP cut from 30% to 20% and subscription fees from 15% to 10%, is favorable for Chinese game developers looking to expand internationally [2]. - The trend of decreasing app store commission rates and the opening of third-party payment systems are reshaping the gaming industry, with major developers gaining more bargaining power [2][3]. Summary by Sections Apple Developer Fee Policy - The standard fee rate in mainland China is now 25%, down from 30%, with a commitment to not exceed rates in other regions [3]. - Small developers benefit from a reduced rate of 12%, down from 15% [3]. - Third-party payment systems remain closed in China, unlike in the EU and Japan, where they are allowed [3]. Google Play Developer Fee Policy - The standard IAP fee is now 20%, with new user incentives lowering it to 15% [4]. - Subscription services see a reduction in fees to 10% [4]. - Developers are allowed to promote third-party payment methods freely, marking a significant shift in policy [4]. Company Valuation Table - Tencent Holdings has a market cap of 43,956 million RMB, with projected revenues increasing from 6,603 million RMB in 2024 to 8,488 million RMB in 2026 [5]. - Other notable companies include Giant Network with a market cap of 673 million RMB and projected revenue growth of 81% from 2024 to 2026 [5]. - Bilibili is projected to have a revenue increase of 13% from 2025 to 2026, with a market cap of 732 million RMB [5].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong growth potential in various sub-sectors such as e-commerce, social entertainment media, internet healthcare, short videos, and IP-driven markets [4][3] - The report emphasizes the positive impact of Apple's commission rate reduction on gaming companies, which is expected to enhance industry profitability [14][15] - The AI sector is anticipated to experience significant growth, with a focus on self-developed models and vertical integration in cloud and ecosystem services [22][4] E-commerce - The report notes that Alibaba's cloud services are expected to boost token usage and MaaS revenue due to the launch of lightweight cloud servers [4][17] - Meituan's management emphasizes a focus on core local business and AI as a major variable for future growth, while maintaining a significant market share in instant retail [14][15] Social Entertainment Media - Tencent's WeChat is projected to continue its strong monetization potential, while Bilibili's advertising growth is expected to lead the internet advertising market [4][18] - Bilibili's advertising revenue is forecasted to accelerate to a 27% growth rate in Q4 2025, benefiting from e-commerce and AI applications [18][4] Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [4][18] Short Videos - Kuaishou is expected to benefit from technological advancements, with continued capital investment anticipated in 2026 [4][19] IP and Trendy Toys - Pop Mart is actively releasing and promoting new IPs, with plans to enhance collaboration with overseas designers to penetrate international markets [4][19] Long Videos - The report indicates that membership and advertising revenues in the long video sector are stabilizing, with companies exploring new business opportunities [4][19] Music Streaming - The music streaming sector is experiencing healthy membership growth, with strategies in place to optimize ARPU [4][19] Gaming - The report remains optimistic about the gaming sector's performance, with recommendations for companies like Century Huatong and Giant Network, which have strong product pipelines and sustainable growth [20][4] - The gaming industry is expected to maintain its favorable outlook into 2026, driven by fundamental performance [20][4] Advertising - The report highlights significant increases in internet advertising investments, particularly for companies like Focus Media, which is expected to benefit from upcoming major events [20][4] AI - The report anticipates a new wave of value reassessment in AI, with a focus on high customer unit prices and increased penetration rates [22][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in AI applications and gaming, driven by advancements in large models and favorable policy changes, such as Google's reduced revenue share for app stores, which is expected to enhance profit margins for domestic gaming companies [4][30] - OpenClaw, an AI assistant platform, has gained immense popularity, topping GitHub's software star ranking, indicating a strong demand for AI tools that enhance user productivity [3][31] - The gaming sector is poised for growth with the upcoming launch of high-potential titles like "异环" (Yihuan), which has already garnered significant pre-registration interest [4][21] Industry Overview - The media industry is experiencing a shift with AI technology accelerating commercialization, particularly in content generation and gaming [30] - The gaming sector has shown resilience, with notable titles like "王者荣耀" (Honor of Kings) leading the iOS sales charts, indicating strong consumer engagement [11][16] - The film industry is also performing well, with "飞驰人生 3" (Fast and Furious 3) achieving the highest box office revenue for the week [25] Key Company Recommendations - For AI applications, recommended companies include Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou, with beneficiaries like Alibaba and Kunlun Wanwei [3] - In the gaming sector, key recommendations include Perfect World, Kying Network, and Xindong Company, with beneficiaries such as Century Huatong and 37 Interactive Entertainment [4] - For cloud computing, Shunwang Technology is highlighted as a key player, with beneficiaries including Zhejiang Shuju Culture [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming industry [6]. Core Insights - Google has announced a reduction in developer fees on Google Play, lowering the standard service fee for in-app purchases (IAP) from 30% to 20% and subscription fees from 30% to 10%. This change also includes the opening of third-party payment systems and app stores, optimizing channel costs in the gaming industry [8][3]. - The Game Developers Conference (GDC) 2026 is set to take place from March 9 to March 13 in San Francisco, focusing on advancements in AI and other industry catalysts. The conference serves as a significant platform for observing industry changes and trends [8][3]. - The report highlights the potential long-term empowerment of the gaming industry through AI, with a strong product cycle and performance certainty expected in 2026. It suggests continued attention to investment opportunities within the gaming sector [8][3]. Summary by Sections Event Description - Google has recently announced a reduction in developer fees and the opening of third-party payment options, with GDC 2026 scheduled for March 9 [3]. Event Commentary - The reduction in fees is expected to significantly lower channel costs, enhancing profit margins for mid-to-heavy games reliant on in-app purchases. This shift indicates a transfer of pricing power from channels to developers, potentially reshaping the Android distribution landscape [8]. - GDC 2026 will cover various core aspects of game development, including AI applications, independent game development, and marketing strategies, making it a crucial event for industry stakeholders [8]. - Upcoming new game releases are anticipated to drive positive developments in the sector, with several titles scheduled for launch in March and April 2026 [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The gaming industry is expected to experience significant growth in 2026, driven by existing games going global, increased penetration in the female market, and migration to cross-platform (PC/console) gaming [2][24]. - **Valuation Context**: The gaming sector is currently valued at approximately 15 times earnings, which is below the normal range of 17-20 times, indicating a potential investment opportunity [1][7]. Company-Specific Insights - **Century Huatong (DianDian Interactive)**: - Shifted focus from mini-games to casual gaming, with new products like "Trackstar" showing revenue growth of 28%-79% [1]. - The company is expected to replicate the high penetration path of domestic SLG games globally [1]. - **Giant Network**: - The game "Supernatural Action Group" ranked in the top 10 during the Spring Festival, indicating strong performance and potential for ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) growth [1][10]. - **Xindong Company**: - The game "Xindong Town" saw over 100% revenue growth in two months post-launch overseas, with a Discord community exceeding 800,000 members, filling a gap in the mobile "Animal Crossing-like" market [1][14][15]. - **Perfect World**: - The game "Yihuan" is set to launch on April 23, 2026, with positive feedback from beta tests, expected to have a significantly higher profit margin than traditional mobile games due to its PC-centric distribution [1][19]. Market Dynamics - **Google's Fee Reduction**: - Starting in 2026, Google will reduce its revenue share from 30% to a range of 15%-25%, potentially increasing profit margins for overseas companies by 2-6 percentage points [1][4][5][6]. - The policy allows for a significant reduction in fees if companies direct users to external payment methods [5]. - **Valuation Trends**: - A-share and Hong Kong-listed gaming companies are currently undervalued, with A-share companies averaging around 15 times earnings, significantly lower than the historical average of 17-20 times [7][24]. Growth Opportunities - **Casual Gaming Market**: - The casual gaming segment is the largest category in overseas gaming, with a market share of 46.9% in 2025. Domestic companies are expected to increase their penetration in this space [8][9]. - **Future Product Pipeline**: - Century Huatong is positioned as a strong player in the casual gaming market, with several new games in development that could enhance its market position [9]. Strategic Recommendations - **Investment Focus**: - Recommended companies for investment include Perfect World, Century Huatong, Giant Network, and Xindong Company, based on their growth potential and market positioning [25]. Conclusion - The gaming industry is poised for a significant upswing in 2026, with favorable market conditions and strategic shifts among key players. The reduction in channel fees by Google presents a substantial opportunity for profit margin enhancement, particularly for companies with a strong overseas presence.