Genie3 是否会对游戏及引擎公司造成商业 冲击？ ——游戏行业点评 传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 03 日 看好（维持） | 项雯倩 | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李雨琪 | 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 | | | liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 金沐阳 | 执业证书编号：S0860525030001 | | | 021-63326320 | | 沈熠 | | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860124120005 | | | shenyi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | | | 全栈式 AI 文娱工具陆续上线，平台型产品 | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [5][40]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown a weekly increase of 0.32%, outperforming both the CSI 300 index (0.08%) and the ChiNext index (-0.09%) during the week of January 26 to February 1 [1][11]. - Key companies that performed well include Tiandi Online, Hengdian Film, Yinsai Group, and Dingsheng Co., while companies like Giant Network and Baina Qiancheng faced declines [1][11]. - The report highlights the success of AI applications and game IPs, particularly the popularity of the Clawdbot AI project and the DeepSeek-OCR2 document recognition model [2][15][16]. - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in AI marketing and gaming sectors, suggesting a focus on companies like Giant Network, Jibite, and Kayi Network for their promising product cycles and performance [4][36]. Industry Performance - The media sector ranked 9th in terms of weekly performance among all sectors, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Tiandi Online (51% increase) and Hengdian Film (32% increase) [11][12]. - The top three films at the box office during the week generated a total of 2.57 billion yuan, with "Zootopia 2" leading at 0.41 billion yuan [3][19]. - In the gaming sector, the top three mobile games in December 2025 were "Whiteout Survival" by Diandian Interactive, "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story" by Lemon Microfun, and "Kingshot" by Diandian Interactive [26][27]. Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - Key companies with an "Outperform" rating include: - Kayi Network (24.92 yuan, market cap 532 million yuan, EPS 1.01 for 2025E) [5][38]. - Jibite (455.00 yuan, market cap 328 million yuan, EPS 22.92 for 2025E) [5][38]. - Sanqi Interactive (26.52 yuan, market cap 587 million yuan, EPS 1.38 for 2025E) [5][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [5][40]. Core Insights - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 0.32%, outperforming both the CSI 300 index (0.08%) and the ChiNext index (-0.09%) during the week of January 26 to January 30 [1][11]. - Key highlights include the popularity of the AI project Clawdbot, the release of the DeepSeek-OCR2 document recognition model, and the success of new products from Pop Mart [2][4][17]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in marketing and content services, particularly in the context of the GEO restructuring and commercialization efforts [4][36]. Industry Performance - The media sector ranked 9th in terms of weekly performance among all sectors, with notable gainers including Tiandi Online (up 51%), Hengdian Film (up 32%), and Insai Group (up 28%) [11][12]. - Conversely, companies like Giant Network and Baida Qiancheng experienced significant declines [11][12]. Key Company Forecasts and Ratings - Key companies with "Outperform" ratings include: - Kaiying Network (24.92 CNY, market cap 532 million CNY, EPS 1.01 for 2025E) [5][38] - G-bits (455.00 CNY, market cap 328 million CNY, EPS 22.92 for 2025E) [5][38] - 37 Interactive Entertainment (26.52 CNY, market cap 587 million CNY, EPS 1.38 for 2025E) [5][38] Important Data Tracking - The box office for the week of January 26 to February 1 reached 257 million CNY, with top films including "Zootopia 2" (41 million CNY, 16.0% market share) and "Water Pipe" (63 million CNY, 13.8% market share) [3][19]. - In the gaming sector, the top three mobile games by revenue in December 2025 were Point Interactive's "Whiteout Survival," Lemon Micro's "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story," and Point Interactive's "Kingshot" [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI applications and the gaming sector for investment opportunities, particularly in companies that are expected to benefit from AI-driven marketing and product cycles [4][36].

Core Viewpoint - The market reacted negatively to rumors suggesting that the financial and internet value-added services sectors, including gaming, might face tax rate adjustments similar to those applied to liquor, leading to a decline in stock prices for major companies like Tencent and others in the gaming sector [1][10]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 3, the A-share gaming sector experienced a significant drop, with Century Huatong's stock falling over 9%, and other major gaming stocks like Kaixin Network, Giant Network, and 37 Interactive Entertainment also declining [1][10]. - Following the initial drop, gaming stocks rebounded, with Shunwang Technology rising by 14.65%, and other companies like Xunyou Technology, Zhejiang Shuju, and Perfect World seeing increases of over 5% [1][10]. Group 2: Tax Rumors and Industry Response - Industry insiders have confirmed that there has been no official communication regarding tax rate adjustments, indicating that the rumors are likely unfounded [5][14]. - A representative from a leading gaming company stated that no formal documents or meetings regarding tax adjustments have been received, further supporting the notion that the rumors lack credibility [5][14]. - According to a report from Everbright Securities, the rumors are based on a misunderstanding of tax categories, as the proposed comparison between gaming and liquor tax rates is misleading [6][15]. Group 3: Tax Policy Context - The current tax rate for financial services and modern services, including gaming and advertising, is set at 6%, contrasting with the 9% rate applicable to basic telecommunications and construction sectors [6][15]. - The recent tax rate adjustment announced by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation only pertains to basic telecommunications services, not affecting financial or internet value-added services [6][15]. - The prevailing policy focus is on stabilizing growth and promoting innovation, suggesting that significant tax increases in key sectors would contradict current governmental objectives [7][16].

Core Insights - The gaming industry is witnessing a significant influx of new titles, with 124 games either launched or in testing in Q1 2026, of which 84.7% have obtained approval numbers [1][44] - A notable trend is the migration of 21 games from the Steam platform to mobile, indicating a shift towards innovative gameplay and artistic styles that may rejuvenate the mobile gaming market [1][44] - Several new games have shown promising market performance, including "Survival 33 Days," "Crazy Water World," "Goose Duck," "Counterattack: Future," and "Arknights: End of the World," which have all achieved strong rankings in various app stores [6][10][15][17] Game Launches and Performance - Five standout games have performed well at the start of 2026, with "Survival 33 Days" leading the charge, achieving top rankings on both WeChat and Douyin mini-game platforms shortly after launch [6][8] - "Crazy Water World," a survival simulation game, has also maintained a strong presence in the top 10 of mini-game rankings and is showing upward momentum in the iOS charts [10][11] - "Goose Duck," a social deduction game, has rapidly gained a large user base, surpassing 1 million users within six days of its mobile launch [13] - "Counterattack: Future," a PvE shooter, has successfully positioned itself within the top 20 of the iOS game rankings shortly after its release [15] - "Arknights: End of the World," a strategy RPG, has also made a strong debut, reaching the top ranks in the iOS charts [17] Upcoming Titles and Trends - The upcoming quarter is set to feature several high-potential titles, including Tencent's "Kingdom of Rock," NetEase's "Forgotten Sea," and FunPlus's "Imo," all of which are expected to enter testing soon [19][30] - The trend of porting games from PC to mobile is gaining traction, with complex genres like SOC and Roguelike also being adapted for mobile platforms, indicating a broader acceptance of diverse gameplay styles in the mobile market [44][48] - The industry is experiencing a renewed sense of optimism, with the potential for quality products to thrive despite challenges, suggesting a possible turnaround in market sentiment [47]

Group 1 - The AI social platform Moltbook has gained significant popularity overseas, featuring 1.5 million AI agents engaging in discussions across thousands of forums, mimicking human social patterns [1][3] - Tencent's AI platform Yuanbao launched a cash red envelope activity on February 1, leading to a surge in downloads, topping the iPhone app rankings on the same day [2][3] - The advancements in large model reasoning and multi-modal capabilities indicate a strong foundation for human-like interactions in AI social platforms, suggesting a pathway from niche applications to broader social engagement [1][3] Group 2 - Google announced the public testing of its world model Genie3, allowing users to create real-time interactive virtual worlds through natural language dialogue, enhancing game development accessibility [4] - The launch of Taptap Maker by Xindong Company enables game creators to develop games directly within a chat interface, significantly lowering the barriers to game development [4] - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from AI advancements, with recommendations to focus on companies with strong platform attributes, including Xindong Company and others [4]

Industry Dynamics - The first batch of game licenses for 2026 has been officially issued, totaling 182 games, including 177 domestic games and 5 imported games, marking a high value for recent years [3][4] - Notable games that received licenses include NetEase's "Yao Yao Chess," 37 Interactive's "Douluo Dalu: Qicheng," and Giant Network's "Moonlight Night: Master Duel" [4] Company Updates - NetEase's "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" won multiple awards at the 2025 TapTap Annual Game Awards, including Best Game and Best Narrative [5] - Century Huatong forecasts a revenue of approximately 38 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 68%, with net profit expected to surge by 357.47% to 475.34% [6] - Perfect World anticipates turning a profit in 2025, projecting a net profit of 720 million to 760 million yuan [7] - Gigabit expects a net profit of 1.69 billion to 1.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79% to 97% [8] - Glacier Network predicts a turnaround with a net profit of 436 million to 516 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 247 million yuan in the previous year [9] - Electric Soul Network forecasts a loss of 160 million to 230 million yuan for 2025, marking its first annual loss since going public [10] - NetEase's Montreal studio has reportedly undergone layoffs, primarily affecting the quality assurance department [11] Overseas and Compliance - Valve, the parent company of Steam, is facing a collective lawsuit in the UK, accused of abusing its dominant position in the PC gaming market, with claims for damages amounting to 6.56 billion pounds (approximately 62.40 billion yuan) [12] - Google has launched a new interactive world AI creation tool, Project Genie, which allows users to generate playable 3D environments [13] - Ubisoft plans to lay off up to 200 employees at its Paris headquarters following a restructuring announcement [14]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of 37 Interactive Entertainment has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.04%, while the company shows a mixed performance in revenue and profit metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of February 2, the stock price of 37 Interactive Entertainment is 25.98 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 57.474 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 10.08% year-to-date, but has decreased by 3.85% over the last five trading days [1]. - The trading volume on February 2 was 9.83 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 2.34% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.461 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.59% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.345 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.57% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders has increased to 159,300, up by 5.86% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder is 10,034, which has decreased by 5.54% [2]. - The top circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 128 million shares, a decrease of 4.3869 million shares from the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming industry [7]. Core Insights - Google's experimental research prototype, Project Genie, and TapTap's AI game creation agent are expected to reshape the game development chain and build a new content ecosystem. The integration of AI is anticipated to enhance the gaming industry significantly [2][4]. - The core competitive advantages in the gaming industry remain IP, quality content, gameplay innovation, and platform capabilities. Companies that actively embrace AI and possess mature game development capabilities are viewed positively [2][4]. - The gaming sector is expected to experience a strong product cycle and performance certainty through 2026, with a focus on investment opportunities in the gaming sector [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - Google has officially launched Project Genie, an experimental research prototype powered by Genie 3, which allows users to create and explore interactive 3D environments based on text prompts or uploaded images. This technology represents a significant breakthrough in AI world simulation [9]. - TapTap has introduced the AI game creation agent "TapTap Manufacturing," which aims to lower the technical barriers for game creation, promoting a "zero-threshold creation" era. This product allows creators to develop and launch games through natural language dialogue without leaving the chat interface [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism about the long-term empowerment of the gaming industry by AI, with a focus on new game releases and industry catalysts. The gaming sector's product cycle and performance certainty through 2026 are expected to remain strong, highlighting investment opportunities in companies such as Giant Network, Kaixin Network, Perfect World, and Tencent [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the media industry, highlighting potential growth driven by policy improvements and AI advancements [4][7][17]. Core Insights - The media industry is characterized by a "supply determines demand" dynamic, with recent policy changes since 2022, particularly in the gaming sector, leading to a gradual recovery in supply and overall industry fundamentals [4][7][17]. - The introduction of the "Broadcasting 21 Measures" in August 2025 is expected to further enhance the supply side of the film and television industry, potentially marking a turning point in industry prosperity [7][25]. - AI technology is increasingly empowering production across various media sectors, significantly reducing costs and improving efficiency, which may lead to a new phase of growth in the industry [8][34][44]. Summary by Sections Policy Environment - The policy environment has shown marginal improvements, effectively addressing supply shortages in the media industry. Since 2022, the number of gaming licenses has been steadily increasing, and the "Broadcasting 21 Measures" aims to optimize the supply side of the film and television industry [7][25][27]. AI Empowerment - AI technology is being integrated into various media sectors, enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs. In gaming, AI is transitioning from a cost-cutting tool to a core element of gameplay innovation, while in advertising, AI has been validated by companies like Meta for improving return on investment [8][34][44]. Industry Performance - The media industry is expected to see significant performance improvements, with revenue and net profit showing positive growth starting in 2025. The gaming sector, in particular, has experienced accelerated growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching approximately 27.06 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 35.23% [48][49]. Index Analysis - The CSI Media Index focuses on marketing, advertising, cultural entertainment, and digital media, with a significant portion of its constituents in the gaming and advertising sectors. The index is expected to benefit from the ongoing integration of AI technology and favorable policy changes [9][58][61]. ETF Overview - The CSI Media ETF (512980), managed by GF Fund Management, is the largest in its category, providing a liquid investment vehicle for exposure to the media sector. As of January 16, 2026, the ETF's scale is approximately 9.96 billion yuan [10][94].