Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The report predicts earnings per share of 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3,634 million CNY, 4,288 million CNY, and 5,410 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 18.0%, and 26.2% respectively [4]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 1,091 million CNY, 1,353 million CNY, and 1,774 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 18.1%, 24.1%, and 31.1% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 847 million CNY, 1,051 million CNY, and 1,402 million CNY, with growth rates of 17.8%, 24.0%, and 33.5% respectively [4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 66.7% in 2023 to 72.9% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 23.3% to 25.9% during the same period [4]. Market Potential - The whiskey market in China is currently underdeveloped, with only 0.8% of the total liquor market share, indicating significant growth potential as domestic brands gain traction [13][20]. - The report highlights that the domestic whiskey market is expected to grow from 55 billion CNY in 2023 to approximately 83 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [39][42]. - The company aims to leverage its experience in the ready-to-drink segment to replicate its success in the whiskey market, focusing on consumer education and strategic marketing [8][36]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a whiskey matrix with its brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localizing imported products to cater to Chinese consumer preferences, which has been a successful strategy in other markets [43][44]. - The company is targeting the mass market with affordable pricing strategies, which is crucial for penetrating the whiskey market in China [57].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.048 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring items, was 672 million yuan, down 13.65% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 662 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.97% [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 737 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.11%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 10.39% to 178 million yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - The significant decline in revenue was primarily due to a decrease in the sales of pre-mixed drinks, which recorded a revenue of 2.677 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.17% year-on-year [2] - The revenue from food flavoring remained stable, reaching 337 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] - As of 2024, pre-mixed drinks accounted for 87.83% of total sales, while food flavoring represented 11.04% [2] Sales Channel Performance - Offline sales saw a slight decline, while ready-to-drink and digital retail channels experienced significant drops of 43.58% and 30.75% respectively [3] - The number of distributors decreased by 4% to 2068 by the end of 2024, with a notable 16% reduction in the East China market [3] - The decline in sales was attributed to the closure of entertainment venues, impacting the ready-to-drink segment [3] Profitability Analysis - Despite a rise in gross margin, the net profit margin declined due to higher selling, general, and administrative expenses, which reached 35.45% in 2024, up 4.51 percentage points year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio decreased significantly, leading to a net profit margin increase of 3.68 percentage points [4] - The company is diversifying into the spirits business, with initial revenue generated in Q1 2025 [4] Spirits Business Development - The company aims to become a leader in the domestic whiskey industry, focusing on high-quality whiskey production [5] - The whiskey aging project is progressing as planned, with the capacity to manage 1 million oak barrels [5] - Two whiskey products were launched in 2024, and the spirits segment is expected to contribute to future growth [5] Earnings Forecast - Projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.78 yuan, 0.93 yuan, and 1.07 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34.65, 29.13, and 25.28 [5]

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 预调酒短期承压，烈酒业务有望突破 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司于 2025 年 4 月 28 日发布 2024 年年度报告与 2025 年一季度报告。 2024 年实现营业收入 30.48 亿元，同比下降 6.61%；归母净利润 7.19 亿 元，同比下降 11.15%。2025 年一季度实现营业收入 7.37 亿元，同比下 降 8.11%；归母净利润 1.81 亿元，同比增长 7.03%，2025Q1 利润增长好 于收入增长。 点评： 2024 年经营承压。分产品来看，预调鸡尾酒业务 2024 全年实现营业收 入 26.77 亿元，同比下降 7.17%，产品结构上移叠加原材料成本下降，毛 利率同比提升 2.42%。食用香精业务全年实现营收 3.37 亿元，同比增长 6.30%，增长较为稳定，毛利率同比提升 1.48%。分区域来看，华东/华南 /华北/华西地区营收分别为 10.15/9.3/5.56/5.13 亿元，分别同比- 6.84%/0.41%/-7.29%/-12.37%，华西地区下滑较为明显。受产品生命周期 影响，鸡尾酒产品 ...

百润股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002568） 公司点评 库存积极去化，威士忌招商可期 ——百润股份 24 年报&25Q1 点评 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2025-05-04 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 26.10 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 31.70/15.00 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,049 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 718 | | 流通股比例（%） | 68.42 | | 总市值（亿元） | 274 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 187 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -39% -17% 5% 26% 48% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 百润股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.百润 ...

-39% -17% 5% 26% 48% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 百润股份 沪深300 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2025-05-04 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 26.10 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 31.70/15.00 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,049 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 718 | | 流通股比例（%） | 68.42 | | 总市值（亿元） | 274 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 187 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 百润股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002568） 公司点评 库存积极去化，威士忌招商可期 ——百润股份 24 年报&25Q1 点评 [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.百润 ...

F # CGS 预调酒韧性发展,威士忌销售起步 2024 年度和 2025Q1 业绩点评 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3048.13 | 3749.29 | 4628.63 | 5574.47 | | 收入增长率% | -6.61 | 23.00 | 23.45 | 20.43 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 719.14 | 806.64 | 1051.92 | 1358.54 | | 利润增速% | -11.15 | 12.17 | 30.41 | 29.15 | | 毛利率% | 69.67 | 71.17 | 72.12 | 73.08 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 0.69 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 1.29 | | PE | 40.87 | 33.95 | 26.04 | 20.16 | | PB | 6.27 | 5.40 | 4.71 | 4.05 | | PS | 8.99 | 7.30 | 5.92 | 4.91 | ...

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 预调鸡尾酒需求仍较疲软，威士忌业务有望提供新增长动能 ——百润股份（002568.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：26.33 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.49 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 276.30 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 15.00/31.70 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 55.04% | 股价相对走势 -25% -7% 11% 29% 47% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 百润股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

增持（维持） 2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 预调鸡尾酒需求仍较疲软，威士忌业务有望提供新增长动能 ——百润股份（002568.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 当前价：26.33 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.49 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 276.30 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 15.00/31.70 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 55.04% | 股价相对走势 -25% -7% 11% 29% 47% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 百润股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company is expected to continue developing its pre-mixed liquor business with a focus on the 358 product matrix, aiming for positive growth in the upcoming year. The whisky business is anticipated to gain momentum with new product launches and successful channel expansion [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 35 billion and 40 billion RMB respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 15% and 14%. The net profit for 2025 is projected at 8.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 12% increase [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is expected to be 30.48 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.61% year-on-year, while net profit is projected at 7.19 billion RMB, down 11.15% year-on-year [8][3] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 7.37 billion RMB, a decline of 8.11% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 7.03% to 1.81 billion RMB [8][3] - The gross margin improved by 2.97 percentage points to 69.7% in 2024, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.21 percentage points to 23.6% [8][3] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company aims for total revenue of 34 billion RMB in 2025 and 40 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 8.1 billion RMB and 9.7 billion RMB [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.77 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.24 [1][3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 26.33 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 27.63 billion RMB [6] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.89 and a total asset-liability ratio of 41.18% [7][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 met expectations, with a focus on the future sales performance of its whiskey products [7] - The pre-mixed beverage business is under pressure, while the whiskey business is in its early stages and requires monitoring for future sales [7] - The company has a strong brand advantage in the pre-mixed beverage industry and has made significant progress in its product matrix since 2022 [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 was 3,048 million, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 719 million, down 11.2% [6][7] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 737 million, a decline of 8.1% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 7.0% to 181 million [7] - The company forecasts net profits of 809 million, 910 million, and 1,022 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.6%, 12.4%, and 12.3% [7][6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 69.67%, an increase of 2.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [7] Business Performance - The pre-mixed beverage and flavoring business generated revenues of 2,677 million and 337 million respectively in 2024, with year-on-year changes of -7.17% and +6.3% [7] - The whiskey business began contributing revenue in Q1 2025, with the launch of "Bailide" blended whiskey [7] - The company is optimistic about the future growth of its whiskey business, contingent on successful sales operations and positive dealer order intentions [7]