Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. As of September 26, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, driven by both fundamental and policy factors. The price of live pigs is expected to rise in the second half of 2025 due to strong support from previous breeding sow reductions and winter piglet losses [29][32] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. The average price of live pigs is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The average price of beef is 66.27 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 2.10% and a year-on-year increase of 7.74% [23] Weekly Market Performance (September 22-26) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 2.18 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% and the agricultural index falling by 1.97% [34][36] - Leading stocks include ST Jinggu (+15.68%), Huaying Agriculture (+5.76%), and Biological Shares (+3.78%) [34][40] Price Tracking (September 22-26) - The average price of live pigs is 12.45 yuan/kg, down 1.81% from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 21.29 yuan/kg, down 4.87% [46] - The average price of beef is 65.90 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30 yuan/kg [54] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [20][29] - In the feed sector, recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope [29] - In the pet food sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares [32]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pork prices, with the average price of live pigs at 12.64 CNY/kg, down 3.05% week-on-week, indicating a supply surplus in the market. However, upcoming festivals are expected to boost consumption and potentially stabilize prices [2][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yield through advanced agricultural practices and technology, particularly in the context of food security and the promotion of genetically modified crops [1][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on enhancing grain yields through a comprehensive approach tailored to specific crops and regions. This includes promoting high-performance agricultural machinery and addressing storage issues in different regions [1][12] - Companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these initiatives, along with seed companies such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Swine Farming - The current average price of live pigs is 12.64 CNY/kg, reflecting a significant decrease due to oversupply. A meeting was held to discuss reducing the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million to stabilize prices [2][13] - The report suggests that the swine industry will focus on quality improvement and efficiency, with a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity. Companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs are highlighted as key players to watch [2][5][13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2360.47 CNY/ton, down 0.10% week-on-week [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2434.39 CNY/ton, up 0.23% week-on-week [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 4050.42 CNY/ton, up 0.17% week-on-week [38] - Cotton: The average price is 15090.00 CNY/ton, down 0.89% week-on-week [46] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.68 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week. Vitamin E prices have decreased by 7.84% to 51.70 CNY/kg [52][63]

Core Points - The company announced the completion of the non-trading transfer of shares for the 2025 stock ownership plan, totaling 41.87 million shares, which accounts for 0.77% of the current total share capital [1] Summary by Category Share Transfer Details - The 2025 operator stock ownership plan involved the transfer of 9.613 million shares, representing 0.18% of the total share capital [1] - The 2025 fighter stock ownership plan accounted for the transfer of 23.4985 million shares, which is 0.43% of the total share capital [1] - The 2025 key employee stock ownership plan included the transfer of 8.7585 million shares, making up 0.16% of the total share capital [1] Share Buyback - The company has utilized all 41.87 million shares repurchased in 2023 for the 2025 stock ownership plan [1]

| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2025-090 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于控股股东及一致行动人权益变动触及 1%整数倍的公告 2、2025 年 9 月 23 日至 2025 年 9 月 25 日，公司回购专用证券账户所持公 司股票完成非交易过户至员工持股计划 4,187.01 万股。 3、2025 年 4 月 23 日至 2025 年 9 月 25 日，公司公开发行的"牧原转债" （债券代码"127045"）累计转股 2,634 股。 综上，本次权益变动主要系公司回购股份、回购股份非交易过户至员工持股 计划、可转换公司债券转股间接导致控股股东及一致行动人持有公司股份比例被 动稀释触及 1%整数倍，持股比例由 56.01%降至 55.82%（总股本剔除了公司回 购专用账户中的股份数量），控股股东及一致行动人持股数量未发生变化。 二、权益变动情况 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、本次权益变动主要 ...

| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2025-089 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于 2025 年持股计划非交易过户完成暨 2023 年回购股份处理完成的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 8 月 22 日召开的第五 届董事会第八次会议和 2025 年 9 月 8 日召开的 2025 年第一次临时股东大会审议 通过了《关于牧原食品股份有限公司 2025 年经营者持股计划（草案）及其摘要 的议案》《关于牧原食品股份有限公司 2025 年奋斗者持股计划（草案）及其摘 要的议案》《关于牧原食品股份有限公司 2025 年骨干员工持股计划（草案）及 其摘要的议案》（以下简称"2025 年持股计划"、"本次持股计划"），具体 内容详见巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）及《证券时报》《中国证券报》《上 海证券报》《证券日报》相关公告。 根据《关于上市公司实施 ...

关于实施权益分派期间"牧原转债"暂停转股的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： | 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 公告编号：2025-091 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | 牧原食品股份有限公司 1、债券代码：127045 2、债券简称：牧原转债 3、转股起止时间：2022年2月21日至2027年8月15日（如遇节假日，向后顺 延） 4、暂停转股时间：2025年9月30日至2025年半年度权益分派股权登记日止 5、恢复转股时间：2025年半年度权益分派股权登记日后的第一个交易日 2025年9月27日 附件：《牧原食品股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司债券募集说明书》中 "转股价格的调整方式及计算公式"条款的规定： 在本次发行之后，若公司发生派送股票股利、转增股本、增发新股（不包括 因本次发行的可转换公司债券转股而增加的股本）、配股以及派发现金股利等情 况，则转股价格相应调整。具体的转股价格调整公式如下： 派送股票股利或转增股本：P1= P0/（1+n）； 牧原食品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping and concerns over overcapacity in the industry [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 12.71 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day, with half of the regions experiencing prices in the "5 yuan pig price zone" [1]. - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was 13.85 yuan/kg, and the average pork price was 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week [1]. - The cumulative output of listed pig companies from January to August 2025 reached 126 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 21.12% [6]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The current pig industry is in its sixth cycle, with the internal expansion phase nearing its end, leading to accelerated capacity reduction due to policy and losses [3][12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture plans to reduce the breeding sow stock by approximately 1 million heads to 39.5 million [8]. - By the end of July 2025, the breeding sow stock was at 40.42 million heads, which is 103.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a need for capacity regulation [5][9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Price Trends - Consumer demand is expected to recover during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, potentially stabilizing prices [3]. - The market is witnessing a negative cycle where lower prices lead to panic selling among farmers, further driving prices down [7]. - The industry is shifting towards a more structured approach, with a focus on quality and differentiation rather than merely reducing capacity [12][13]. Group 4: Policy and Strategic Adjustments - The government is actively implementing measures to control pig production, including meetings with major pig companies to discuss production adjustments [8][9]. - Companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods are reducing their breeding sow numbers and controlling the weight of pigs at slaughter [12]. - The industry is expected to evolve into a "30-30-40" structure, with 30% of large enterprises ensuring basic capacity, 30% focusing on niche markets, and 40% being flexible family farms [13].

Core Viewpoint - The swine market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping significantly and concerns over overcapacity in the industry [1][7]. Price Trends - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China is 12.71 yuan/kg, with a notable decline in prices across various regions [1]. - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was reported at 13.85 yuan/kg, while pork averaged 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.8% [1]. Market Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the high inventory levels and pressure on enterprises to sell are contributing to the lack of a market bottom, despite government measures to regulate production capacity [3][5]. - The current swine industry is in its sixth cycle, with expectations that the effects of capacity reduction will become evident by the second half of 2026, potentially leading to price increases [5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The overall high inventory levels, coupled with insufficient consumer demand, have resulted in a "peak season not peaking" scenario for pig prices [7]. - By November 2024, the number of breeding sows is expected to reach a peak of 40.8 million, indicating a continued supply pressure [7]. Corporate Actions - Major companies are actively reducing their breeding sow numbers and controlling production to address overcapacity issues [16][17]. - For instance, companies like Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope are maintaining stable inventory levels and controlling the weight of pigs at the time of sale [17]. Market Sentiment - There is a shift in market sentiment, with some farmers exhibiting panic selling behavior, leading to a negative feedback loop where lower prices prompt quicker sales, further driving prices down [8]. - Despite the challenges, there is a consensus in the industry regarding the need for proactive capacity reduction and quality improvement [8]. Structural Changes - The industry is expected to evolve into a "three-three" structure, with 30% of leading enterprises ensuring basic capacity, 30% focusing on niche markets, and 40% consisting of medium-sized family farms leveraging flexibility [18].

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping and concerns over excess production capacity [1][2][3] Price Trends - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China is 12.71 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day, with half of the regions experiencing prices in the "5 yuan pig price zone" [1] - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was 13.85 yuan/kg, and the average pork price was 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - High inventory levels and the release of production capacity by leading enterprises are contributing to the oversupply in the pig industry, compounded by weak consumer demand [2][3] - The number of breeding sows is projected to reach a high of 40.8 million by November 2024, indicating sustained supply levels [2] Industry Adjustments - Major pig farming companies are actively reducing production capacity, with a consensus on the need for quality improvement and capacity reduction [5][6] - Companies like Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope are implementing measures to control the number of breeding sows and reduce average slaughter weights [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may stabilize by November as excess capacity is gradually absorbed, with potential for price recovery [5][6] - The industry is expected to evolve into a "three-three" structure, balancing large enterprises, specialized farms, and medium-sized family farms to better withstand cyclical fluctuations [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [42] Core Viewpoints - Recent declines in pig prices and continuous profit decreases for breeding companies will force upstream breeding sows to reduce stock. The current stock of breeding sows remains relatively high, indicating significant potential for future reduction. The valuation of pig breeding companies is still at a historically low level, presenting an opportunity for investment based on capacity reduction expectations. In the chicken breeding sector, overall capacity is relatively high, and profitability remains under pressure. There is a potential for capacity reduction in the future, with attention to marginal profit improvement opportunities. In the feed sector, opportunities arise from increased market concentration and overseas expansion. The domestic pet market still has expansion potential, with leading domestic companies expected to maintain rapid growth [42][43] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 5.07% from September 12 to September 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 6.07 percentage points [10] - All sub-sectors recorded negative returns during this period, with declines of 2.89% in planting, 3.59% in animal health, 4.36% in feed, 5.32% in agricultural product processing, 5.95% in breeding, and 6.73% in fisheries [13][14] 2. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs fell from 13.31 CNY/kg to 12.51 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2365.1 CNY/ton, and soybean meal was 3002 CNY/ton, both showing slight declines. As of September 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -74.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -236.57 CNY/head, indicating a decrease in profitability [22][24][27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.29 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 6.9 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for white feather broilers was -2.22 CNY/chick, also indicating a decrease [29][33] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale prices for crucian carp and carp were 21.09 CNY/kg and 14.2 CNY/kg, respectively, both showing slight declines [35] 3. Industry News - Argentina announced a temporary zero-export tax on agricultural products, effective from September 23, 2025, until October 31, or until exports reach 7 billion USD. This measure aims to address domestic foreign exchange pressures and currency devaluation, significantly lowering export costs and enhancing competitiveness in the global market [37]