Market Performance - The market opened high and continued to rise, with the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by over 1% and the ChiNext Index rising by over 2% [1] ETF Highlights - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) had a total trading volume of 11.99 million yuan, with a closing premium rate of 0.13% [1] - Over the past 60 trading days, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has attracted over 430 million yuan in capital [1] - The Tianhong Agriculture ETF (512620) tracking the CSI Agriculture Theme Index rose by 0.18%, marking two consecutive days of gains [1] ETF Composition - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading stocks in high-end and mid-range liquor, as well as key players in beverages, dairy, condiments, and beer [1] - Major holdings include "Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, Yili, and Haitian" [1] - The Tianhong Agriculture ETF closely follows the CSI Agriculture Theme Index, covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, with key stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [1] Shareholder Return Activities - Since 2025, over 30 A-share companies, including Emei Shan A, Qianwei Yangchun, and Jiahe Foods, have announced voluntary shareholder return activities, a nearly 90% increase compared to 18 companies in 2024 [2] - The main sectors initiating these activities are food and beverage, and tourism services, which directly target individual consumers [2] Market Trends in Traditional Chinese Medicine - Prices for certain traditional Chinese medicinal materials like Angelica and Codonopsis have decreased, while others such as Ophiopogon, Rhizoma Polygonati, and Rose have remained stable [2] - The market for "food and medicine homology" is expected to reach 370 billion yuan this year, with significant growth in related health products and functional foods [2] Agricultural Sector Developments - On December 5, Muyuan Foods announced that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has reviewed its application for issuance and listing, but this does not constitute formal approval [2] - Current valuations in the food and beverage sector are at historical lows, with signs of relative returns as market styles shift [2] - It is advised to focus on opportunities for recovery and valuation repair after fundamental pressures ease, as well as innovations in categories, channels, and consumption scenarios [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, presenting opportunities for investment at the bottom of the market [3][4] - The poultry sector's fundamentals are expected to improve, with a focus on marginal changes in the cycle [4][5] - The animal health sector is closely monitoring the progress of African swine fever vaccine clinical trials, which could enhance the industry's competitive landscape [6][7] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging and improving profitability [9][10] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in November was 11.69 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/kg [15] - The number of breeding sows as of the end of October was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [15][16] - Investment suggestions include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with a focus on low-cost performance and dividend increases [16] Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broiler parent stock chicks was 41 yuan/set, down 6 yuan from the previous week [31] - The poultry sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with a recommendation for companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [32] Animal Health - The profitability of self-breeding pigs has been negative for over two months, impacting the animal health sector [40] - Companies like Bio-Pharmaceuticals and Keqian Bio are recommended due to their strong business layouts and customer resources [6][40] Planting Industry - The price of corn was 2229 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8% [45] - Companies with early reserves in genetically modified seeds are recommended, including Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [50] Feed Industry - The price of feed for fattening pigs was 3.32 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [51] - The feed industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for Haida Group and He Feng Stock [52] Pet Industry - The pet consumption market in urban China is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Stock, with a focus on the pet medical sector as well [59]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively ensuring stable supply and quality of raw materials through partnerships with major grain merchants and adjusting feed formulations based on market trends [1] Group 1: Procurement Strategy - The company has established business partnerships with domestic and international major grain merchants to expand grain sources [1] - The company is focused on multi-channel procurement to ensure stable supply of raw materials [1] Group 2: Quality Management - The company emphasizes quality testing and management to ensure that product quality meets standards and requirements [1] Group 3: Feed Formulation - The company adjusts feed formulations in response to changes in grain market trends, allowing for the substitution of different raw materials [1] - The adjustments in feed formulations aim to lower feed costs while meeting the nutritional needs of the pig population [1]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the livestock and pet industries, while highlighting ongoing challenges in pig farming due to supply pressures and price adjustments [2][5][9]. Livestock Industry Overview - Pig farming is experiencing downward price adjustments due to increased supply from smallholders and insufficient demand for cured products, leading to a supply-demand struggle [9][18]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.38% in November, indicating a potential acceleration in capacity reduction [21][9]. - As of December 4, the average price for market pigs was 11.30 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.57% [32][33]. - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 167.69 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 259.39 CNY per head for purchased piglets reported [39][42]. Poultry Industry Insights - The poultry sector is seeing a rise in white chicken prices, with an average price of 7.27 CNY/kg as of December 5, up 1.11% week-on-week [40][44]. - The ongoing outbreaks of avian influenza in overseas markets are expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry in the medium to long term [40][41]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health industry is under pressure due to a decline in demand linked to the overall losses in pig farming, with significant year-on-year decreases in vaccine approvals [50]. - However, the development of new vaccines, including progress in African swine fever vaccine trials, may provide a boost to the sector [50]. Seed Industry Trends - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybean have shown slight increases, with wheat prices at 2515 CNY/ton, corn at 2357 CNY/ton, and soybean meal at 3111 CNY/ton as of December 5 [53][55]. - The USDA's November report indicates a decrease in global corn and soybean stocks, which may impact future pricing and availability [54][57]. Pet Industry Developments - The pet food export market faced a decline, with October exports amounting to 772 million CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year [58][60]. - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with e-commerce sales in October increasing by 19% year-on-year, driven by strong performances from local brands [61][62]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw significant sales growth for domestic pet brands, indicating a shift towards local products in the market [62].

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint emphasizes that social demand is the fundamental reason for a company's existence, and that social value is the focal point for development in the new business paradigm [3][18]. Group 1: Business Philosophy - Social demand is the fundamental reason for a company's existence; without it, technology and management lose their significance [3][18]. - The essence of business is service, providing products and services to the market; the highest realm of business is love, discovering market needs through compassion [3][18]. - The new paradigm does not distinguish between old and new; the core is the enhancement of cognition, focusing on social value and promoting openness and shared creation [3][18]. Group 2: Value Creation - Social value is defined by the unity of economic, ecological, and social benefits, reflected in resource efficiency, green development, and win-win growth [4][19]. - Companies must focus on technological innovation to lower costs and achieve cost leadership; failing to do so indicates insufficient capability [4][19]. - The essence of social benefit is co-creation and shared growth, emphasizing the importance of sharing technology, platforms, and talent [4][19]. Group 3: Economic Efficiency - Economic efficiency prioritizes efficiency, which represents value for money and is a constant theme in market economics; achieving lower prices while maintaining quality is essential [9][24]. - Companies must innovate to create more value for customers, ensuring that they can offer better products at competitive prices [10][25]. - Achieving cost leadership through technological innovation is crucial for survival in the industry [10][25]. Group 4: Ecological Development - The company is committed to "low-carbon pig farming," with a target of 0.905 kg CO₂e per kilogram of pork by 2024, significantly lower than international averages [11][26]. - Efforts to reduce carbon emissions span all production stages, contributing to both ecological responsibility and business opportunities [11][26]. - The company has implemented air purification systems in pig farms, achieving a 99.9% sterilization rate and significantly improving air quality [12][27]. Group 5: Social Impact - The essence of social benefit is co-creation and shared growth, with a focus on enabling others to succeed and creating unlimited business opportunities [13][28]. - The company has invested 24.8 billion in building an intelligent veterinary platform, enhancing service capabilities for surrounding farmers [13][28]. - By fostering collaboration with over 12,700 specialized farmers, the company aims to transform China's pig farming industry from a major producer to a strong competitor [13][28].

Group 1 - The aquaculture sector experienced a decline of 0.26% on December 8, with Huaying Agriculture leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up 1.39% [1] - Key stocks in the aquaculture sector showed varied performance, with Jingji Zhino rising by 4.79% to 13.35 and Huaying Agriculture falling by 4.38% to 2.62 [2] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the aquaculture sector was 106 million yuan, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 151 million yuan [2] - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 44.86 million yuan [2] - The detailed fund flow for key stocks indicates that Zhengbang Technology had a net inflow of 66.93 million yuan from main funds, while Huaying Agriculture saw a net outflow of 12.83 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

农林学文 主 2025 年 12 月 08 日 站玩人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 猪价继续震荡走弱, 亏损 能去化提速 – 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 看好 相关研究 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 ● (16.2%)、平潭发展 (10.6%)、西王食品 (10.3%)、生物股份 (9.7%)、福建金森 (9.4%)，跌幅前五名：绿康生化（-10.1%）、ST 天山（-8.9%）、*ST 傲农（-6.5%） 中水 渔业 (-6.5%)、益生股份 (-5.3%)。 投资分析意见：行业亏损加剧，产能加速去化 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) is still in the research and development phase for its snowflake pork project, and has not yet achieved stable mass production [1][3] - The company is committed to continuing the breeding of high-quality breeding pigs to produce premium pork for society [1] - There is a lack of clear information regarding the product standards, trial production scale, and commercialization path for the snowflake pork project, as highlighted by investor inquiries [3] Group 2 - The company has not yet defined the product specifications and quality standards for the snowflake pork [3] - The research and trial production have not reached a stable phase, and the current trial production scale is unspecified [3] - The project is considered a core business for the company in enhancing value-added products and promoting consumer transformation [3]

行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 猪价继续震荡走弱，亏损加剧、产 能去化提速 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 （16.2%）、平潭发展（10.6%）、西王食品（10.3%）、生物股份（9.7%）、福建金森 （9.4%），跌幅前五名：绿康生化 ...

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as key beneficiaries [1][12] - The monthly recommended investment portfolio includes leading companies in the livestock sector such as Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, indicating a bullish outlook on their performance [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly from 2025 to 2027 [14] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to a reduction in production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, suggesting an acceleration in the culling of dairy cows [14] - Key recommendations in the livestock sector include Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price recovery in raw milk and beef [14][19] Swine Sector - The swine sector is characterized by a gradual recovery in prices, with a focus on leading companies such as Huazhong Holdings, Dekang Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to outperform due to their low-cost advantages [15][22] - The report notes that the average price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, reflecting a 10% month-on-month decline, while the price of piglets increased by 18% [22][23] - The report emphasizes that leading companies in the swine sector are likely to see significant cash flow improvements and increased dividend payouts as the industry stabilizes [15][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, where prices have shown a modest increase [24][30] - The report indicates that the price of white chicken was 7.10 yuan/kg at the end of November, reflecting a 1.43% month-on-month increase, while chick prices have decreased [25][30] - Recommendations for the poultry sector include leading companies such as Lihua Holdings and Shengnong Development, which are expected to maintain strong profitability amid improving market conditions [17][24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, benefiting from rising consumer sentiment and the emergence of domestic brands, with key recommendations including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [16][20] - The report highlights that the domestic pet food export volume decreased by 3.88% month-on-month, indicating potential challenges in the export market [20] - The growth of high-end domestic brands during promotional events like Double 11 is noted, suggesting a strong market presence and growth potential for local players [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month to 2289 yuan/ton [2][22] - The report indicates that the supply of eggs is under pressure due to increasing production, while the demand for corn is expected to stabilize as new crops come to market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is projected to experience a recovery, with specific attention to the planting chain and companies with strong R&D capabilities [17][19]