行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 猪价继续震荡走弱，亏损加剧、产 能去化提速 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 （16.2%）、平潭发展（10.6%）、西王食品（10.3%）、生物股份（9.7%）、福建金森 （9.4%），跌幅前五名：绿康生化 ...

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as key beneficiaries [1][12] - The monthly recommended investment portfolio includes leading companies in the livestock sector such as Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, indicating a bullish outlook on their performance [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly from 2025 to 2027 [14] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to a reduction in production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, suggesting an acceleration in the culling of dairy cows [14] - Key recommendations in the livestock sector include Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price recovery in raw milk and beef [14][19] Swine Sector - The swine sector is characterized by a gradual recovery in prices, with a focus on leading companies such as Huazhong Holdings, Dekang Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to outperform due to their low-cost advantages [15][22] - The report notes that the average price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, reflecting a 10% month-on-month decline, while the price of piglets increased by 18% [22][23] - The report emphasizes that leading companies in the swine sector are likely to see significant cash flow improvements and increased dividend payouts as the industry stabilizes [15][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, where prices have shown a modest increase [24][30] - The report indicates that the price of white chicken was 7.10 yuan/kg at the end of November, reflecting a 1.43% month-on-month increase, while chick prices have decreased [25][30] - Recommendations for the poultry sector include leading companies such as Lihua Holdings and Shengnong Development, which are expected to maintain strong profitability amid improving market conditions [17][24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, benefiting from rising consumer sentiment and the emergence of domestic brands, with key recommendations including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [16][20] - The report highlights that the domestic pet food export volume decreased by 3.88% month-on-month, indicating potential challenges in the export market [20] - The growth of high-end domestic brands during promotional events like Double 11 is noted, suggesting a strong market presence and growth potential for local players [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month to 2289 yuan/ton [2][22] - The report indicates that the supply of eggs is under pressure due to increasing production, while the demand for corn is expected to stabilize as new crops come to market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is projected to experience a recovery, with specific attention to the planting chain and companies with strong R&D capabilities [17][19]

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as core investments [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are leaders in their respective sectors [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly by 2027 [14][40] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure on production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, prompting faster culling of dairy cows [14][40] Swine Sector - The swine sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend potential as industry capacity contracts [1][15] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of leading swine companies is at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [15][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, which is entering a consumption peak [24][30] - The report notes that the price of broiler chickens has shown a slight recovery, with a projected increase in profitability for leading poultry companies [24][30] Pet Sector - The pet industry is identified as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and emotional consumer trends [16][20] - The report recommends leading pet food companies, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product upgrades and direct sales transformations [20][16] Feed Sector - The feed sector is highlighted for its deepening industrialization and clear division of labor, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of corn has increased by 4% month-on-month, while soybean meal prices are at historical lows, indicating a potential for future recovery [2][22] - The report also mentions that the egg market is under pressure from supply increases, while the demand for soybeans is tightening in the medium to long term [2][18]

Group 1 - Century Huatong plans to change the use of 1.28 million repurchased shares from equity incentive plans to cancellation, reducing total share capital from 7.428 billion to 7.427 billion shares [2] - Wuliangye adjusts its 2025 investment plan, increasing the number of projects from 19 to 22 and changing the investment amount from 2.586 billion to 2.207 billion yuan [3] - Qingyue Technology is under investigation for suspected financial data fraud, with the possibility of forced delisting if found guilty [4] Group 2 - Kang Enbei's chairman and legal representative resigns due to work adjustments, along with another board member [5] - Tianshan Co. expects a tax payment of approximately 61.86 million yuan to impact its 2025 net profit [6] - Muyuan Foods reports a 20.43% year-on-year decline in November sales revenue from live pigs, totaling 9.39 billion yuan [7] Group 3 - GAC Group's November automobile sales decreased by 9.72% year-on-year, with total sales of 1.797 million vehicles [8] - Western Pastoral's fresh milk production in November increased by 6.3% month-on-month but decreased by 6.47% year-on-year [9] - Gemdale Group's November contracted area fell by 58.50% year-on-year, with a total contracted amount of 1.52 billion yuan [10] Group 4 - Zhenghong Technology reports November sales revenue of 4.5196 million yuan from live pigs, with a year-on-year decline of 21.83% [11] - Wens Foodstuff's November chicken sales reached 118 million birds, generating 3.324 billion yuan in revenue [12] - Meilixin's controlling shareholder plans to increase holdings by no less than 50 million yuan [13] Group 5 - Hongcheng Environment's subsidiary wins an 853 million yuan sewage treatment project [14] - Dongzhu Ecology wins a 397 million yuan environmental project [15] - Xindian Software secures a 54 million yuan project for digital community construction [16] Group 6 - China Chemical announces that its nylon new material project has reached full production [17] - Jiaojian Co. is in discussions regarding overdue payments related to financial products, clarifying that it bears no responsibility for these products [18] - Micron Biotech's product is included in the 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory [19] Group 7 - Yitian Intelligent plans to sell 600 smart computing machines for a total of 1.56 billion yuan [20] - First Venture's subsidiary receives an administrative penalty notice from Jiangsu Securities Regulatory Bureau [21] - China Insurance's vice president is under investigation for serious violations [22] Group 8 - Zhixiang Jintai's monoclonal antibody injection is included in the 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory [23] - Haichuang Pharmaceutical's drug is also included in the National Medical Insurance Directory [24] - Yuanli Co. plans to acquire 49% of Clarimex for 25.56 million USD [25] Group 9 - Betta Pharmaceuticals' products are included in the National Medical Insurance Directory [26] - Tianci Materials' controlling shareholder commits to not reducing holdings for six months [27] - Guanglian Aviation's actual controller has had a detention measure lifted [28] Group 10 - Annie Co. announces a share transfer agreement that will make Shengshi Tianan the controlling shareholder [29] - Double Star New Materials notes uncertainty regarding the sustainability of long-term price increases [30] - ST Tianrui terminates plans for a change in control and resumes trading [31] Group 11 - Guao Technology is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [32] - Guangqi Technology's subsidiary signs contracts worth 696 million yuan for the production of metamaterials [33] - Shuoshi Biotech's monkeypox virus detection kit is included in the WHO emergency use list [34]

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Hog Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **hog industry** in China, discussing market developments and price outlooks for hogs [2][3]. Key Points Capacity Trends - **Sow Herd Capacity Cuts**: The reproductive sow herd began to decline in July 2025, with a significant acceleration in cuts noted in October 2025 due to mounting losses. The sow inventory fell over **1% month-over-month** to **39.9 million heads** [3][4]. - **Small-Scale Producers**: Responsible for approximately **28%** of hog output in 2025, small-scale producers are the main contributors to capacity reductions. Large-scale producers also began to cut capacity as losses increased [3]. Cost Trends - **Production Costs**: Costs have decreased in recent years, attributed to lower feed costs and improved efficiency. Top-tier companies operate at an average cost of **Rmb 12–13/kg**, while smaller producers operate at **Rmb 13–14/kg**. With hog prices dropping to **Rmb 11.6/kg** in October and November, the industry has entered a loss-making phase [4]. Price Outlook - **Hog Prices**: Experts predict that hog prices will remain under pressure until mid-2026 due to persistent oversupply. The Ministry of Agriculture's target of **39 million heads** by year-end 2025 is deemed achievable. An inflection point for prices is expected in the second half of 2026, reflecting a typical **10-month lag** between sow herd cuts and market supply contraction [5]. Industry Consolidation - Continued consolidation in the industry is anticipated, with small-scale producers exiting the market. Companies with cost advantages are expected to outperform during this period [5]. Key Beneficiaries - **Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group**: Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming hog price upcycle, with Muyuan being highlighted as the top pick due to its cost advantage [6]. Risks Muyuan Foods - Risks include limited production cost savings due to rising feed costs, slower-than-expected hog destocking, lower-than-expected sales volume growth, and delays in the development of its downstream slaughtering business [8]. Wens Foodstuff Group - Risks involve limited cost savings from swine diseases and rising feed costs, sluggish hog prices due to slow de-capacity, lower demand from restaurants, and lower-than-expected average selling price growth of yellow feather broilers [9]. Conclusion - The hog industry in China is facing significant challenges with capacity cuts and price pressures expected to continue until mid-2026. However, companies like Muyuan and Wens are positioned to capitalize on future price recoveries, albeit with notable risks that could impact their profitability.

A股 1、12月4日晚间，环保监测设备龙头ST先河公告称，公司股票交易将于12月5日停牌一天，于12月8日开市起复牌。公司股票自12月8日开市起撤销其他风 险警示，证券简称由"ST先河"变更为"先河环保"，证券代码仍为"300137"，撤销其他风险警示后，公司股票交易的日涨跌幅限制不变，仍为20%。 2、上交所官网最新数据显示，2025年11月份，A股新增投资者开户数达到238.14万户，环比增长3.1%。 3、Wind数据显示，截至12月3日，今年以来外资机构已累计调研A股上市公司逾9000次，持续释放看好中国资产的积极信号。其中，以Point72资产管理 公司、高盛为代表的知名外资机构调研频次位居前列。 4、贵州百灵企业集团制药股份有限公司发布公告称，公司实际控制人姜伟因涉嫌内幕交易、信息披露违法、违反限制性规定转让股票，中国证监会决定 对其进行立案。 5、 牧原食品股份有限公司近日发布公告称，公司正在进行申请境外上市外资股（H股）发行并在香港联交所主板挂牌上市的相关工作，于11月28日向香 港联交所更新递交了本次发行并上市的申请，并于同日在香港联交所网站刊登了相关申请资料。牧原股份曾于2025年5月27 ...

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) is advancing its Hong Kong IPO to enhance its global market credibility and visibility, with a focus on international expansion and technological development in the livestock industry [3][4]. Group 1: IPO and Fundraising - Muyuan Foods plans to issue up to 546 million overseas ordinary shares to raise funds for expanding overseas markets and enhancing technology research and development [3]. - The company aims to complete the IPO process to improve its credibility in global markets, with the issuance itself being deemed more important than the fundraising scale [3]. Group 2: International Expansion Strategy - The company has shifted from a light-asset model to establishing overseas factories, with a significant investment of approximately 3.2 billion yuan in a high-tech breeding project in Vietnam [4]. - Muyuan Foods' internationalization strategy is supported by its vertically integrated model, which has established it as the world's largest pork producer by production capacity and output since 2021 [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Industry Context - In the first three quarters of this year, Muyuan Foods reported revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.779 billion yuan, up 41.01% [5]. - However, the company faced challenges in Q3, with revenue declining by 11.48% to 35.327 billion yuan and net profit dropping by 55.98% to 4.249 billion yuan due to low pork prices [5]. - The company's total liabilities have remained above 100 billion yuan since 2021, reaching 100.3 billion yuan with a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.5% as of Q3 this year [5].

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods is progressing with its Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) listing, having recently undergone a listing hearing for its application [1] Group 1: Listing Progress - Muyuan Foods officially initiated its Hong Kong IPO plan in early 2025, submitting its application on May 27, but the prospectus automatically lapsed on November 27 due to not completing the hearing within six months [3] - The company plans to issue up to 546 million overseas ordinary shares, with funds aimed at expanding overseas markets and enhancing technology research and development across the entire industry chain [3] - The primary goal of the HKEX listing is to accelerate internationalization, with the company emphasizing that completing the issuance is more important than the financing scale itself [3] Group 2: Internationalization Strategy - Muyuan Foods' international expansion began in 2024, focusing on a light-asset technology output model, such as collaborating with BAF Vietnam Agricultural Co., Ltd. to provide technical services [4] - In September, the company signed a second-phase agreement with BAF to invest approximately 3.2 billion yuan in a high-tech breeding project in Vietnam, which will include a feed factory [4] - Transitioning from light-asset output to overseas factory construction is seen as a way to better control the supply chain and enhance competitiveness in local markets [4] Group 3: Financial Performance and Industry Context - For the first three quarters of 2025, Muyuan Foods reported revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.779 billion yuan, up 41.01% [5] - However, the company faced challenges in Q3, with revenue declining by 11.48% year-on-year to 35.327 billion yuan and net profit down 55.98% to 4.249 billion yuan due to low pork prices [5] - The company's total liabilities have remained above 100 billion yuan since 2021, reaching 100.3 billion yuan with a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.5% as of Q3 2025 [5] - The cyclical nature of pork prices is a global issue, and Muyuan Foods aims to mitigate this through multi-regional layouts, potentially stabilizing profits by embedding overseas factories into local consumption systems [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The industry is experiencing dual support for pig prices due to supply and demand factors, with expectations for continued pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers [4][13] - The overall trend indicates a reduction in breeding stock, with significant implications for the industry as losses in pig farming accelerate [26] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - There is significant short-term pressure on large pig sales from individual farmers, while large farming groups face less pressure to meet annual sales targets [4][13] - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of pigs nationwide is 11.19 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 4.40 yuan/kg [4][13] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector is facing losses, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding stock. The price of pigs continues to decline, creating deeper losses for farmers [26] - Recommendations include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [26] Market Performance (December 1-5) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 1.86 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% while the agricultural index fell by 1.49% [28][32] - Notable stock performances include Haodangjia (+16.15%), Xiwang Food (+10.26%), and Biological Shares (+9.66%) [28][35] Price Tracking (December 1-5) - The average price of pigs on December 5 is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week [38] - The average price of piglets is 19.26 yuan/kg, also showing a week-on-week increase [38] - Other agricultural products such as white feather chicken and beef have seen price increases, with corn futures rising by 2.50% [38][49] Major Meat Import Volumes - In October 2025, pork imports totaled 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, while chicken imports were 7,100 tons, down 72.1% [55][57] Feed Production - In October 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 29.07 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.2% [57]