—— 2024 年年报点评 维持评级 高峰 钱德胜 | 市场数据 | 2025-03-13 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 002916.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 128.00 | | 上证指数 | 3358.73 | | 总股本(万股) | 51,287.75 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 51,155.43 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 655 | -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 300 ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ · 电子行业 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 17907.45 | 21921.86 | 26598.97 | 29835.03 | | 收入增长率% | 32.39 | 22.42 | 21.34 | 12.17 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1877.57 | 2372.82 | 2801.21 | 3232.48 | | 利润增速% | 34.29 | 26.38 | 18.05 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 17,907.45 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 29,835.03 million yuan by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.34% from 2025 to 2027 [5][7] - Net profit is forecasted to grow from 1,877.57 million yuan in 2024 to 3,232.48 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong profit growth trajectory [5][7] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 24.83% in 2024 to 26.13% in 2027, reflecting operational efficiency [5][7] Financial Summary Income Statement - Revenue is projected to grow from 17,907.45 million yuan in 2024 to 29,835.03 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 32.39% in 2024 and declining to 12.17% by 2027 [5][7] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 2,028.25 million yuan in 2024 to 3,499.67 million yuan in 2027, with a notable operating profit margin improvement [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 1,877.57 million yuan in 2024 to 3,232.48 million yuan in 2027, with a net profit margin of approximately 10.83% by 2027 [7] Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from 25,302.25 million yuan in 2024 to 38,458.48 million yuan in 2027, indicating a robust asset base [6] - The company's total liabilities are expected to increase from 10,656.35 million yuan in 2024 to 15,368.81 million yuan in 2027, maintaining a manageable debt level [6] Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is anticipated to rise from 2,982.22 million yuan in 2024 to 4,560.58 million yuan in 2027, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities [6] - The net increase in cash is projected to be 700.63 million yuan in 2024, growing to 4,424.20 million yuan by 2027, indicating improved liquidity [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 17,907.45 million in 2024, increasing to 29,835.03 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.34% from 2025 to 2027 [5][7] - Net profit is forecasted to grow from 1,877.57 million in 2024 to 3,232.48 million in 2027, indicating a strong profit growth trajectory [5][7] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 24.83% in 2024 to 26.13% in 2027, suggesting enhanced operational efficiency [5][7] Financial Summary Income Statement - Revenue is projected to grow from 17,907.45 million in 2024 to 29,835.03 million in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 32.39% in 2024, tapering to 12.17% by 2027 [5][7] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 2,028.25 million in 2024 to 3,499.67 million in 2027, with a notable operating profit margin improvement [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 1,877.57 million in 2024 to 3,232.48 million in 2027, with a net profit margin of approximately 10.83% by 2027 [7] Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from 25,302.25 million in 2024 to 38,458.48 million in 2027, indicating a robust asset base expansion [6] - The company's equity attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 14,617.02 million in 2024 to 23,055.74 million in 2027, reflecting strong retained earnings and capital growth [6] Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is anticipated to rise from 2,982.22 million in 2024 to 4,560.58 million in 2027, indicating improved cash generation capabilities [6] - The net increase in cash is projected to be 700.63 million in 2024, growing significantly to 4,424.20 million by 2027, showcasing strong liquidity management [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3][15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 179.07 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.39%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 18.78 billion yuan, up 34.29% year-over-year [3][4] - The report highlights the successful introduction of AI clients and the ramp-up of ABF substrate production as key drivers for profit growth in 2025 and beyond, with net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 26.08 billion yuan, 32.76 billion yuan, and 38.49 billion yuan respectively [3][4] - The company is focusing on the demand for "AI PCB," the ramp-up of ABF substrates, and the recovery of BT substrate demand in 2025, particularly in the AI and automotive sectors [4] Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 135.26 billion yuan in 2023, with a decline of 3.3%, followed by a projected revenue of 179.07 billion yuan in 2024, marking a growth of 32.4% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 1.398 billion yuan, down 14.8%, with an expected increase to 1.878 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 34.3% [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 23.4% in 2023 to 24.8% in 2024, while the net margin is projected to remain stable around 10.5% [6][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on production ramp-up, but AI-driven growth is expected to build long-term momentum [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 17.907 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.39%, and a net profit of 1.878 billion yuan, up 34.29% year-on-year [5] - The data center sector has seen significant order growth, becoming the second downstream market to reach a scale of 2 billion yuan in PCB business after the communication sector [5] - The company is focusing on deepening core technology and accelerating the introduction of high-end products [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 21.159 billion yuan, 23.518 billion yuan, and 25.635 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.557 billion yuan, 3.041 billion yuan, and 3.549 billion yuan [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 13.526 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -3.33% [4] - The company expects a net profit of 1.398 billion yuan in 2023, with a net profit growth rate of -14.81% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.73 yuan for 2023, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26.00 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.60% in 2023 [4] - The company anticipates a gross margin of 23.4% for 2023 [7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a market performance of -11% over the last 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [3]

2025 年 3 月 14 日 公司研究 业绩快速增长，受益 AI 浪潮 ——深南电路（002916.SZ）跟踪报告之五 要点 24 年业绩快速增长：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年公司营业收入 179.07 亿 元，同比增长 32.39%；实现归母净利润 18.78 亿元，同比增长 34.29%。 印制电路板业务充分把握算力及汽车电子市场机遇。2024 年公司印制电路板业 务实现主营业务收入 104.94 亿元，同比增长 29.99%，占公司营业总收入比例 为 58.60%。公司在通信领域把握行业结构性机会，实现产品结构优化。2024 年公司通信领域主要得益于高速交换机、光模块产品需求增长，有线侧通信产品 占比提升，实现了订单规模同比快速增长，产品结构进一步优化，盈利能力有所 改善。公司在数据中心领域受益于 AI 服务器相关需求增长及行业周期性回暖， 业务规模明显增长。2024 年公司数据中心领域订单同比取得显著增长，成为 PCB 业务继通信领域后第二个达 20 亿元级订单规模的下游市场。 封装基板业务推动新产品持续导入。2024 年公司封装基板业务实现主营业务收 入 31.71 亿元，同比增长 3 ...

元件 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524030001 Email：liubw@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 512.88 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 511.55 | | 市价(元) | 128.00 | | 市值(百万元) | 65,648.32 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 65,478.95 | 深南电路（002916.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：王芳 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 13,526 | 17,907 | 21,547 | 24,863 | 29,425 | | 执业证书编号：S07 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 146.81, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current price of RMB 128 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust performance for the fiscal year 2024, with revenue increasing by 32.4% year-on-year to RMB 17.9 billion, surpassing estimates [1]. - Net profit also saw a significant rise of 34.3% year-on-year to RMB 1.9 billion, aligning with estimates but slightly below consensus [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 24.8%, up from 23.4% in the previous fiscal year, driven by recovering demand despite the impact of new factory expansions [1]. - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 15% and 21% respectively, reflecting higher utilization rates and increased capital expenditures from domestic cloud companies [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid penetration of high-end autonomous driving systems, which will drive growth in automotive PCB revenue [1]. Revenue and Profitability - PCB sales increased by 30% to RMB 10.5 billion, driven by strong demand from data centers and automotive sectors, despite a decline in the telecommunications industry [2]. - The gross profit margin for PCBs improved to 31.6% in fiscal year 2024, up from 26.6% in fiscal year 2023, reflecting higher capacity utilization and an optimized product mix [2]. - The PCBA segment also experienced a year-on-year growth of 33.2%, benefiting from strong performance in data center and automotive sales [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 17.9 billion in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 28.2 billion by fiscal year 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.5% during the period [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1.9 billion in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 3.7 billion by fiscal year 2027, with a CAGR of 28.5% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 3.66 in fiscal year 2024 to RMB 7.24 by fiscal year 2027 [4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned to outperform expectations in the PCB market, leveraging its leading position and increased capacity in FC-BGA substrates [3]. - The report suggests that the company will benefit from the trend of localization within the industry, enhancing its competitive edge [3].

24年业绩快速增长 公司发布 2024年年报，2024年公司营业收入179.07亿元，同比增长32.39%；实现归母净利润18.78亿元， 同比增长34.29%。 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 报告摘要 印制电路板业务充分把握算力及汽车电子市场机遇 2024年公司印制电路板业务实现主营业务收入104.94亿元，同比增长 29.99%，占公司营业总收入比例为 58.60%。公司在通信领域把握行业结构性机会，实现产品结构优化。2024年公司通信领域主要得益于高速 交换机、光模块产品需求增长，有线侧通信产品占比提升，实现了订单规模同比快速增长，产品结构进一 步优化，盈利能力有所改善。公司在数据中心领域受益于 AI 服务器相关需求增长及行业周期性回暖，业 务规模明显增长。2024年公司数 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Shennan Circuit to BUY, with a new target price of RMB146.81, up from the previous RMB115.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current price of RMB128.00 [1][3]. Core Insights - Shennan Circuit reported solid FY24 results, with revenue increasing by 32.4% year-on-year to RMB17.9 billion, surpassing estimates by 2% and 7% compared to internal estimates and Bloomberg consensus, respectively. Net profit rose by 34.3% year-on-year to RMB1.9 billion, aligning with internal estimates but falling 2% short of Bloomberg consensus [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 24.8% in FY24 from 23.4% in FY23, reflecting a recovery in demand, although this was partially offset by the ramp-up of a new factory [1]. - Revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 have been revised upwards by 15% and 21%, respectively, due to higher utilization rates, increased revenue from data center and AI-related sectors, and better growth in automotive PCB revenue [1][10]. - Net profit estimates for FY25 and FY26 have also been increased by 12% and 16%, respectively, despite lower GPM estimates due to ongoing capacity ramp-up costs [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue reached RMB17,907 million, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. The projected revenue for FY25 is RMB21,551 million, reflecting a growth of 20.3% [2][13]. - The net profit for FY24 was RMB1,878 million, with a year-on-year growth of 34.3%. The forecast for FY25 is RMB2,429 million, indicating a growth of 29.4% [2][13]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 25.1% for FY25, with a gradual increase to 26.2% by FY27 [2][13]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - Shennan Circuit is positioned as a key beneficiary of domestic localization trends, particularly in the PCB market, with significant growth expected in the data center and automotive sectors [1][7]. - The PCB sales grew by 30% year-on-year to RMB10.5 billion, driven by strong demand in data centers and automotive applications, despite a decline in telecom-related sales [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing capital expenditure by domestic cloud companies and the faster-than-anticipated penetration of high-end autonomous driving systems [1][7].