Liquidity Overview - The average daily lending level of banks decreased from 5.0 trillion yuan to 4.3 trillion yuan, with a low of 3.7 trillion yuan on Friday[2] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 2,250 billion yuan on July 7, marking the end of the cross-season liquidity support[1] - The overnight and 7-day funding rates rose by 1-2 basis points compared to the previous week due to continued net withdrawal pressure[1] Market Trends - As of July 11, the R001 rate increased by 4.3 basis points to 1.40%, while the R007 rate rose by 2.1 basis points to 1.51%[1] - The issuance rate for 1-year certificates of deposit from state-owned banks increased from 1.59% to 1.62% during the week[2] - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 1.61%, down 1 basis point from the previous week[7] Future Outlook - The upcoming tax period (July 14-18) is expected to cause fluctuations in funding prices, with overnight rates potentially ranging between OMO and OMO+5 basis points[3] - The central bank's attitude remains supportive, as indicated by the resumption of reverse repos on July 10-11[3] - The stability of funding rates during the tax period will depend on the central bank's medium- and long-term fund injections[3] Government Bonds - Net payments for government bonds increased to 398.5 billion yuan for the period of July 14-18, with both national and local bonds seeing an increase in net payments[6] - The planned issuance of government bonds for the same period is 4,642 billion yuan, slightly down from the previous week[6] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The pressure from maturing certificates of deposit is increasing, with 7,822 billion yuan maturing from July 14-18, up from 5,213 billion yuan the previous week[7] - The average weighted maturity of interbank certificates of deposit decreased to 8.9 months from 9.7 months[7]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms is expected to significantly increase in the first half of 2025, driven by the recovery of A-share market activity, positioning the brokerage sector as a leader in the current bull market [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - Nine listed brokerages have all reported expected profit increases, with a total net profit potentially exceeding 9 billion yuan, and an average growth rate of around 300% [2]. - Specific forecasts include: - Hongta Securities: Net profit of approximately 651.37 million to 696.29 million yuan, growth of 45% to 55% [3]. - Guosen Securities: Net profit of approximately 4.78 billion to 5.53 billion yuan, growth of 52% to 76% [4]. - Huaxi Securities: Net profit of approximately 445 million to 575 million yuan, growth of 1025.19% to 1353.90% [3]. - Hato Securities: Net profit of approximately 380 million yuan, growth of about 233.10% [4]. - Caida Securities: Net profit of approximately 363.34 million to 404.25 million yuan, growth of 51% to 68% [4]. - Guosheng Jinkong: Net profit of approximately 150 million to 220 million yuan, growth of 236.85% to 394.05% [4]. - Jilin Aodong: Net profit of approximately 1.236 billion to 1.289 billion yuan, growth of 130% to 140% [3]. - Guolian Minsheng: Net profit of approximately 1.129 billion yuan, growth of 1183% [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The brokerage sector has seen significant inflows of capital, with 1.253 billion yuan of leveraged funds net buying into the non-banking sector since July, ranking eighth among industry sectors [5]. - Analysts from various brokerages are optimistic about the brokerage sector, citing a stable bottom in the capital market and the potential for upward breakthroughs in equity markets [5]. - The current market rally is characterized by internal momentum rather than concentrated policy support, indicating a self-driven upward trend in the index due to sustained inflows of incremental capital [5].

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is experiencing significant performance improvements, with multiple firms reporting substantial profit growth, indicating a bullish market trend for the industry [1][4][8]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - Several listed brokerages have released performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with many stocks in the brokerage sector rising over 5% this month, and some, like Zhongyin Securities, achieving consecutive trading limits [2][4]. - Huaxi Securities expects a net profit of 445 million to 575 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1025.19% to 1353.9% [4]. - Guolian Minsheng forecasts a net profit of 1.129 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 1183% year-on-year [4]. - Hualin Securities anticipates a net profit of 270 million to 350 million yuan, with a growth of 118.98% to 183.86% [5]. - Caida Securities projects a net profit of 363 million to 404 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 51% to 68% [6]. - Guoxin Securities expects a net profit of 4.78 billion to 5.53 billion yuan, with a growth of 52% to 76% [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The brokerage index rose by 2.47% on July 11, 2025, with a net inflow of 8.992 billion yuan, marking the highest increase since the beginning of the year [8][12]. - Zhongyin Securities has been a standout performer, with significant trading activity from northbound funds, indicating strong market interest [10][11]. - Other brokerages, such as Hatou Co., Xiangcai Co., Zhongyuan Securities, and Guojin Securities, have also seen stock price increases exceeding 10% this month [11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the brokerage sector's continued growth, citing internal market dynamics as a key driver, rather than external policy changes [13]. - The capital market is expected to stabilize, with various funding sources supporting upward trends in equity markets [13]. - The current market environment shows similarities to late 2014, with signs of improving investor confidence and potential policy shifts aimed at boosting domestic demand [13].

Group 1 - The rapid development and widespread application of fintech are gradually changing the operating models and ecosystem of the securities industry [1] - Chief Information Officers (CIOs) play a crucial role in the digital transformation of brokerages and in building competitive advantages [1] - Several brokerages have intensified their recruitment of CIOs this year to strengthen their information technology strategies and create business "moats" [1] Group 2 - Donghai Securities and Southwest Securities have recently announced open recruitment for the CIO position, focusing on candidates with a strong background in fintech business development [1] - New CIO appointments have been made at various brokerages this year, including Huaxi Securities and Guolian Minsheng [1][2] - Most of the newly appointed CIOs possess extensive experience in both securities business and technology departments, indicating a trend towards hiring professionals with dual expertise [2] Group 3 - The role of CIOs is deemed essential for optimizing trading systems, enhancing intelligent service levels, and improving transaction efficiency [2] - The intensive recruitment of CIOs highlights the accelerating trend of digital transformation within the industry [2] - Strengthening IT investments and strategies is crucial for brokerages to build core competitiveness and achieve differentiated development in a competitive market [2]

Macro Dynamics - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the U.S. request for South Korea to impose restrictions on China, emphasizing that any agreements should not harm third-party interests [1] - China has expanded its visa-free and transit visa-free countries to 47 and 55 respectively, aiming to simplify visa application processes and enhance international travel [2] Financial Institutions - The China Securities Association issued new guidelines to regulate underwriting fees, prohibiting tiered pricing and enhancing the quality of underwriting practices [3] - The Ministry of Finance announced measures to guide insurance funds towards long-term stable investments, adjusting performance evaluation methods for state-owned insurance companies [5] - The former chairman of China Construction Bank (Macau) is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [6] Company Dynamics - Huaxia Fund completed a 10% equity transfer to Qatar Holding, making it the third-largest shareholder [8] - China CNR Corporation expects a net profit of 6.722 billion to 7.562 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 60% to 80% [12] - Nestlé's offices in France were searched due to allegations of using illegal filtration systems that could conceal contamination issues [13] - Huawei published a new patent applicable to foldable devices, enhancing user interface switching capabilities [13] Market Data - On July 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.01%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.8%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.712 trillion yuan [9] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increased by 0.46%, led by financial stocks, while new consumer stocks experienced declines [10]

Core Viewpoint - Seven brokerage firms have reported significant profit increases for the first half of the year, with notable growth from Guolian Securities and Huaxi Securities, both exceeding a tenfold increase in net profit [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Guolian Securities achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.129 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 1183% [1] - Huaxi Securities is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders between 445 million and 575 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth ranging from 1025.19% to 1353.90% [1] - Other brokerage firms reported the following net profits: - Hongta Securities: 651 million to 696 million yuan (+45% to 55%) [1] - Caida Securities: 363 million to 404 million yuan (+51% to 68%) [1] - Hatou Co.: 380 million yuan (+233.1%) [1] - Hualin Securities: 270 million to 350 million yuan (+118.98% to 183.86%) [1] - Guosheng Securities: 243 million yuan (+109.48%) [1]

Group 1 - Yuntian Lifa plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] - Aerospace Electromechanical's wholly-owned subsidiary intends to transfer 70% equity of Eschong Korea [4] - Three Gorges Water Conservancy plans to publicly transfer 41.0071% equity of Chongqing Tiantai Energy Group [5] Group 2 - Galaxy Microelectronics intends to invest 310 million yuan in the construction of a high-end integrated circuit device industrialization base [6] - Wanye Enterprises' wholly-owned subsidiary plans to invest 299 million yuan to establish a private equity investment fund [7] - Dailor New Materials will invest 45 million yuan to establish a holding subsidiary [8] Group 3 - Huaxi Securities expects a net profit increase of 1025.19% to 1353.9% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [10][11] - Guolian Minsheng anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 1183% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [12] - Gaode Infrared expects a net profit increase of 734.73% to 957.33% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [13] Group 4 - Tianchen Co. expects a net profit increase of 640% to 786% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [14] - Shenkai Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 183% to 278% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [15] - Taishan Petroleum expects a net profit increase of 123% to 173% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [16] Group 5 - Ruikeda expects a net profit increase of 132.44% to 163.22% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [17] - Jinkong Electric anticipates a net profit of 120 million to 150 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [18] - Ankai Bus expects a net profit increase of 106.67% to 189.34% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [19] Group 6 - Yara International expects a net profit increase of 170% to 244% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [20] - Zhongshun Jierou anticipates a net profit increase of 59.85% to 82.68% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [21] - Guoan Co. expects a loss of 25.9 million to 36.7 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [22] Group 7 - Huamei Holdings expects a loss of 46.5 million to 60 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [23] - AOC Technology anticipates a loss of 450 million to 490 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [24] - Shangrong Medical expects a loss of 7 million to 9.5 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [25] Group 8 - Hangang Co. expects a net loss of approximately 111 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [26] - Baili Electric's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 2% [27] - Dream Lily's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 0.5% [28]

[Huaxi Securities 2025 Semi-Annual Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=Huaxi%20Securities%20Co.%2C%20Ltd.%202025%20Semi-Annual%20Performance%20Forecast) [Current Period Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=I.%20Current%20Period%20Performance%20Forecast) The company projects substantial performance growth for the first half of 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to increase by over 1000% 2025 Semi-Annual Performance Forecast | Item | Current Period | Prior Year Period | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders of Listed Company** | Profit: 445.00 Million Yuan – 575.00 Million Yuan | Profit: 39.55 Million Yuan | | Year-on-Year Growth | 1025.19% - 1353.90% | - | | **Net Profit Excluding Non-Recurring Gains and Losses** | Profit: 439.00 Million Yuan – 569.00 Million Yuan | Profit: 42.05 Million Yuan | | Year-on-Year Growth | 944.10% - 1253.28% | - | | **Basic Earnings Per Share** | Profit: 0.17 Yuan/Share – 0.22 Yuan/Share | Profit: 0.02 Yuan/Share | [Communication with Accounting Firm](index=1&type=section&id=II.%20Communication%20with%20Accounting%20Firm) This performance forecast presents preliminary results and has not been audited by a certified public accountant - This performance forecast has not been audited by a certified public accountant[4](index=4&type=chunk) [Explanation of Performance Changes](index=1&type=section&id=III.%20Explanation%20of%20Performance%20Changes) The company attributes its performance growth to strategic initiatives, improved business operations, market opportunity capture, and enhanced risk management - The company attributes performance growth to[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Adhering to specialized and differentiated development directions - Improving business organizational systems and commercial models - Strengthening operational management and actively seizing market opportunities - Enhancing compliance and risk control, effectively improving asset quality [Risk Warning](index=1&type=section&id=IV.%20Risk%20Warning) The company confirms no significant uncertainties impact the accuracy of this performance forecast - The company states there are no significant uncertainties affecting the accuracy of this performance forecast[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Other Relevant Notes](index=1&type=section&id=V.%20Other%20Relevant%20Notes) This performance forecast is a preliminary estimate, with final financial data subject to the officially disclosed 2025 semi-annual report - This performance forecast is a preliminary estimate, with final data subject to the 2025 semi-annual report[8](index=8&type=chunk)

Group 1 - The total wealth management scale of the top 14 banks reached 22.96 trillion yuan by the end of June, a decrease of approximately 950 billion yuan compared to the end of May [1] - The growth of these institutions in the first half of the year narrowed to 530 billion yuan due to scale fluctuations in June [1] - The decline in scale in June was primarily due to a rapid loss of cash products, which decreased by over 550 billion yuan compared to the end of May and approximately 800 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the wealth management market is expected to see a rapid rebound in July, with an estimated recovery of over one trillion yuan [1]

Group 1: Inflation Overview - The June CPI year-on-year increased by 0.1%, higher than the expected 0% and the previous month’s -0.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, year-on-year rose by 0.7%, compared to the previous value of 0.6% [1] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 3.6%, which was worse than the expected -3.3% [1] Group 2: Food Prices - Food prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, but the decline was smaller than the average drop of 1.2% during the same period from 2021 to 2024 [2] - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 0.7% due to supply shortages caused by high temperatures and excessive rainfall, contrasting with the average decline of 4.1% in previous years [2] - In July, food prices continued to show a slight decline, with average prices of 28 monitored vegetables and 7 fruits dropping by 0.3% and 1.2% respectively [2] Group 3: Energy Prices - Oil prices rebounded, significantly reducing the drag on CPI from energy [2] - The average price of Brent crude oil increased by 9.1% month-on-month, leading to a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in transportation fuel prices after three consecutive months of decline [2][11] Group 4: Other Price Movements - The prices of platinum jewelry, rent, and medical services showed improvement, with platinum prices rising by 12.6%, marking the largest month-on-month increase in nearly a decade [3] - Medical service prices increased by 0.3% for three consecutive months, likely due to the implementation of new pricing guidelines [3] - Tourism services experienced a month-on-month price drop of 0.8% due to seasonal factors following the end of holiday periods [3] Group 5: PPI Analysis - The PPI remained at -0.4% month-on-month for the fourth consecutive month, indicating persistent weakness in industrial prices [4] - Seasonal and structural factors contributed to the decline, with significant price drops in the mining and raw materials sectors [4] - The increase in renewable energy generation has exerted structural pressure on traditional energy prices, contributing to the PPI decline [4] Group 6: Industry Insights - Prices in the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors fell in June, but a policy shift is expected to curb price wars and lead to a potential rebound [5] - The automotive industry has shown signs of recovery, with prices increasing by 0.2% month-on-month after a period of aggressive price competition [6] - Overall, the CPI showed slight improvement while the PPI remained weak, indicating ongoing price stabilization efforts in various sectors [6]