Group 1 - Zhongyin Securities fell over 5% [1] - Xiangcai Shares and Dongfang Wealth both dropped over 3% [1] - Jinlong Shares, Changjiang Securities, Tianfeng Securities, and Huaxi Securities also experienced declines [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance, leading to significant revenue and profit growth for listed securities firms in the first half of the year, primarily driven by proprietary trading income. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, 42 listed securities firms achieved a total operating income of 251.87 billion yuan and a net profit of 104.02 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 11.37% and 65.08% respectively [1] - Proprietary trading contributed significantly, with total proprietary income reaching 112.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.53%, accounting for over 40% of total revenue [1][2] - Among these firms, CITIC Securities was the only one to exceed 10 billion yuan in proprietary income, achieving 19.05 billion yuan, which constituted approximately 57% of its total revenue [2] Group 2: Major Shareholdings - As of the end of June, the top three heavily held stocks by securities firms were Jiangsu Bank, Yong'an Futures, and CITIC Construction Investment, with holdings of 923 million shares, 439 million shares, and 383 million shares respectively [5] - The market value of these holdings was approximately 11.03 billion yuan for Jiangsu Bank, 6.51 billion yuan for Yong'an Futures, and 9.21 billion yuan for CITIC Construction Investment [5] - Other notable stocks included Sinopec, Shanghai Laishi, and Yuheng Pharmaceutical, with significant holdings by various securities firms [5] Group 3: Changes in Holdings - In the second quarter, securities firms significantly increased their positions in stocks such as Sichuan Chengyu, Hongchuang Holdings, and Yuntianhua, with increases of 9.89 million shares, 5.76 million shares, and 5 million shares respectively [6] - Conversely, stocks like Huangshi Group, Shanghai Mechanical, and Northeast Securities saw substantial reductions in holdings, with Huangshi Group experiencing a decrease of over 14 million shares [7][8] - Regulatory issues led to a sharp decline in holdings for certain stocks, with securities firms reducing their positions in Huangshi Group following investigations and penalties [8][9]

Core Insights - The A-share market continues to rise, leading to a prosperous season for brokerage firms, with 42 listed brokerages achieving a total operating income of 251.87 billion yuan and a net profit of 104.02 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing year-on-year growth of 11.37% and 65.08% respectively [1] - The significant increase in brokerage performance is largely attributed to proprietary trading, which generated a total income of 112.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 50%, accounting for more than 40% of total income [1][2] - Among the brokerages, CITIC Securities stands out as the only firm with proprietary income exceeding 10 billion yuan, reaching 19.05 billion yuan, contributing approximately 57% to its total revenue [2] Brokerage Performance - In the first half of the year, 25 out of 42 listed brokerages reported proprietary income exceeding 1 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 60% of the total [2] - Notable performers include Changjiang Securities, which saw a staggering year-on-year increase of 668.35% in proprietary income, and Guolian Minsheng and Huaxi Securities with increases of 458.78% and 245.07% respectively [2] Stock Holdings - As of the end of June, the top three stocks held by brokerages were Jiangsu Bank, Yong'an Futures, and CITIC Construction Investment, with holdings of 923 million shares, 43.9 million shares, and 38.3 million shares respectively, translating to market values of 11.03 billion yuan, 6.51 billion yuan, and 9.21 billion yuan [4] - Brokerages have shown a preference for sectors such as non-bank financials, electronics, and biomedicine in their proprietary trading [1] Changes in Holdings - In the second quarter, significant increases in holdings were observed in stocks like Sichuan Chengyu, Hongchuang Holdings, and Yuntianhua, with increases of 9.89 million shares, 5.76 million shares, and 5 million shares respectively [6] - Conversely, stocks such as Huangshi Group, Shanghai Mechanical, and Northeast Securities experienced substantial reductions in holdings, with the largest decrease being 14 million shares for Huangshi Group [8][11] Regulatory Impact - Some stocks faced significant reductions in holdings due to regulatory penalties, with brokerages exiting positions in companies like Huangshi Group, which was under investigation for information disclosure violations [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that all 49 listed brokerage firms in A-shares have reported positive growth in net profit, with 13 firms showing an increase of over 100%, and Huaxi Securities and Guolian Minsheng achieving nearly 1200% profit growth [1] - 28 listed brokerages have disclosed their profit distribution plans for the first half of 2025, with seven firms including CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Galaxy planning to distribute cash dividends exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] - The brokerage sector's performance is driven by increased trading activity, with core businesses such as brokerage and proprietary trading being the main sources of profit growth [3][5] Group 2 - The brokerage ETF (512000) has seen significant net inflows, with a recent single-day net inflow of 462 million yuan and cumulative net inflows exceeding 4.1 billion yuan over the past 20 days [6][5] - The current price-to-book ratio (PB) of the brokerage sector is 1.65, which is at the 51.47% percentile over the past decade, indicating that the sector is still undervalued [3] - Analysts expect the brokerage index to maintain a steady upward trend if the equity market continues to expand, with the potential to approach a PB of two times, which is the upper limit of the valuation range over the past ten years [5][3] Group 3 - The brokerage ETF (512000) is designed to passively track the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages [7] - The ETF has a current fund size exceeding 31.2 billion yuan, marking a historical high, and has an average daily trading volume of over 900 million yuan, making it one of the most liquid ETFs in the A-share market [6][7]

Market Overview - On September 1, the securities sector declined by 0.97%, with Huaxi Securities leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.53, up 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12828.95, up 1.05% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Zhongyin Securities (601696) closed at 16.82, up 4.15% with a trading volume of 2.1491 million shares and a turnover of 3.605 billion [1] - Pacific Securities (660109) closed at 4.46, up 1.13% with a trading volume of 3.3672 million shares [1] - Other notable performances include: - China Merchants Jinling (601995) at 38.94, up 1.01% [1] - Guojin Securities (600109) at 10.36, up 0.48% [1] - Huaxin Securities (600621) at 17.85, down 0.56% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The securities sector experienced a net outflow of 7.504 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 5.043 billion [2] - Notable fund flows include: - Zhongyin Securities had a net inflow of 4.65 billion from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 1.13 billion from speculative funds [2] - Pacific Securities saw a net inflow of 1.12 billion from speculative funds, but a net outflow of 645.725 million from institutional investors [2] - Overall, retail investors contributed positively to the fund flow in the sector [2]

Market Performance - The A-share market collectively rose on September 1, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index surging by 2.29%, while the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell by 0.36% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 27,776 billion yuan, a decrease of 525 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] - Over 3,200 stocks in the market experienced gains [2] Sector Performance - The leading sectors in terms of gains included precious metals, non-ferrous metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, CPO, and storage chips [2] - Conversely, the sectors that saw declines included insurance, airport and shipping, securities, military equipment, banking, and gaming [2] Notable Stocks - International gold prices surpassed 3,480 USD per ounce, leading to a collective surge in gold stocks, with companies like Zhongjin Gold, Hunan Gold, and Western Gold hitting the daily limit [2] - Innovative pharmaceutical stocks saw significant increases, with Maiwei Biotech hitting the daily limit and over 10 stocks including Lifang Pharmaceutical and Baihua Medicine also reaching the daily limit [2] - CPO concept stocks maintained strong performance, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Xinyi Sheng reaching historical highs [2] - The satellite navigation and military equipment sectors saw multiple stocks decline, with China Satellite, China Satcom, and Aerospace Hongtu among those with notable losses [2] - The securities sector also underperformed, with Huaxi Securities, Dongwu Securities, and Dongfang Securities experiencing declines [2]

Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud's revenue exceeded expectations, confirming the view that AI is a key investment direction amid global macroeconomic volatility [2] - The report suggests several investment opportunities, including Hong Kong internet leaders, the gaming industry, film and cultural tourism, and data rights [1] Market Overview - In the week of August 25-29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.71%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 7.74% [1] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.37%, and the Hang Seng Internet Index declined by 1.03%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 0.66 percentage points [1] - The SW Media Index increased by 1.05%, trailing the ChiNext Index by 6.69 percentage points, ranking 12th among 31 industries [1] Alibaba's Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 26% year-on-year to 33.398 billion yuan, marking a three-year high [2] - AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for eight consecutive quarters, accounting for over 20% of external commercialization revenue [2] - Capital expenditure in the AI and cloud sector reached a record high of 38.6 billion yuan during the reporting period, with over 100 billion yuan invested in AI infrastructure and product development over the past four quarters [2] Gaming Industry Developments - In August 2025, the National Press and Publication Administration approved 166 domestic and 7 imported game licenses, with a total of 1,050 domestic game licenses issued this year [3] - The increase in approved licenses indicates a strengthening trend in the supply side of the industry, supported by policies that provide certainty for product matrix expansion [3] Media Industry Data - Top three films in theaters: "浪浪山小妖怪," "南京照相馆," "东极岛" [4] - Top three TV series: "凡人修仙传," "生万物," "利剑玫瑰" [4] - Top three variety shows: "地球超新鲜," "心动的信号第八季," "脱口秀和Ta的朋友们第二季" [4] - Top three animated series: "沧元图," "凡人修仙传," "开心锤锤" [4] - Top three iOS games: "王者荣耀," "和平精英," "穿越火线-枪战王者" [4] - Top three Android games: "心动小镇," "我的休闲时光," "崩坏：星穹铁道" [4]

Group 1 - The potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates may strengthen a weak dollar environment, catalyzing a new round of growth in resource commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, which could accelerate the performance of the non-ferrous sector [2] - The upcoming product launches from Apple and META in September, focusing on edge AI and AR glasses, may lead to a sustainable trend in edge devices and AI ecosystems, making the consumer electronics sector, especially the Apple supply chain, worth watching [2] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to reveal three clues: industries with high capital expenditure intensity and signs of marginal reduction, industries showing self-discipline or policy implementation, and industries relying on quotas to continuously improve profit margins [2] Group 2 - The number of innovative drug catalysts is expected to increase significantly in September, and recent technology shifts have cleared out short-term speculative funds, suggesting that innovative drugs may continue to rise after this adjustment [2] - The market is likely to maintain a volatile upward trend, driven by the accumulation of profit-making effects and continuous inflows of incremental capital, with a focus on sectors like AI computing power, semiconductor autonomy, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, and innovative drugs [4][5] - The market is expected to remain in a high center of gravity, with structural rotation among sectors, supported by active trading and favorable policy expectations, particularly in growth sectors that have shown high prosperity in the first half of the year [5] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is high, with significant inflows of incremental capital, particularly from financing funds, leading to a further acceleration of market growth [6] - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with volatility increasing, and a need for sectors to alternate and rise for a more stable and sustainable market [7] - Long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is increasing its presence in the A-share market, contributing to the stability of the current "slow bull" market [8] Group 4 - The market is expected to exhibit a primary trend of oscillation, with limited space for strong continuation, and a focus on defensive dividend sectors as their value is increasing [9] - The current bull market is supported by long-term factors such as the economic cycle nearing a bottom, supportive funding conditions, and positive signals from the industry [12] - The index center of gravity is expected to rise further, with a continuation of the growth trend in total market capitalization [12]

Group 1 - The A-share securities sector experienced a decline at the beginning of trading on September 1, with Huaxi Securities falling over 2% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Great Wall Securities, Yangtze Securities, Guotou Capital, and Nanjing Securities, also saw declines [1]

Report Information - Report Title: "Research on Major Asset Classes Isn't Complicated: The Second Lesson from a Decade of Research" [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liu Yu [5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Different major asset classes have unique risk - return characteristics, and these characteristics change over time. Therefore, investors should regularly re - evaluate these features, select high - quality assets, and aim for beta returns by avoiding frequent timing and trading [2][13] - The pricing of stocks, bonds, and gold can be unified within a framework of liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior. Understanding these factors helps in analyzing asset price trends and making investment decisions [3] Summary by Directory 1. What is a Good Asset? - Asset characteristics can be evaluated using the risk - return ratio, which combines return and volatility. Assets with high returns and low volatility are considered good assets [11][12] - Historically, gold has shown an upward trend, and the domestic bond market has been in a long - term bull market since 2018, both providing good holding experiences. The domestic stock market is range - bound, making timing crucial for investors [12] - In 2025 from January to July, due to factors such as US tariff policies and the entry of market - stabilizing funds, the risk - return ratios of various assets changed significantly. Gold's ratio increased, domestic equities improved, and pure - bond indices deteriorated [2][12] 2. The Unified Framework for Major Asset Classes - Asset price movements have three phases: rising, falling, and sideways. The key to research and investment is to find the inflection points between these phases. The pricing of stocks, bonds, and gold can be unified under the framework of liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior [3][16] - Liquidity refers to the ease of obtaining funds in the market. Loose monetary policies usually lead to more funds flowing into the capital market, driving up asset prices [3][17] - Risk preference reflects investors' expectations and confidence in the future. It is influenced by economic fundamentals and policy expectations, and has a significant impact on asset pricing [18][19] - Institutional behavior affects the market in two ways: strengthening short - term trends and having a structural impact on specific sectors [4][20] 3. Equities: Risk Preference is Key - Stock market pricing can be simply measured by the price - earnings ratio, and risk preference is a crucial factor. High risk preference leads to more optimistic pricing, while low risk preference can cause prices to fall [21] - The balance of margin trading can be used to measure market risk preference. An increase in the balance indicates rising risk preference, and vice versa [21] - The driving factors for risk preference in the stock market include corporate earnings and policy expectations. Different driving factors require different investment strategies [26][31] 4. Bonds: Monetary Policy is the Lifeline - The main ways to obtain returns in the bond market are through coupon payments, leverage, and duration. Monetary policy and the money market are vital for the bond market [33][35] - The net lending scale of the banking system can be used to judge the stability of the money market. Policy changes and institutional behavior can also have a significant impact on the bond market [35][40] 5. Gold: De - dollarization is the Main Line - Gold is globally priced. Its price is affected by global liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior, especially the gold - buying behavior of central banks [46] - Historically, gold was negatively correlated with the real US dollar interest rate. However, since 2020, the relationship has become positive, indicating a change in the pricing logic due to the de - dollarization process [46][50] - As the de - dollarization trend continues, central banks' increased gold purchases support the price of gold, and gold is expected to benefit from this trend [50][52]