Summary of Sungrow Power Supply Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Sungrow Power Supply - **Established**: 1997 - **Headquarters**: Hefei, Anhui, China - **Listing**: Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2011 - **Industry**: New energy equipment, including photovoltaic inverters, wind energy converters, energy storage systems, and floating PV systems - **Market Position**: Second-largest energy storage systems manufacturer globally with a 14% market share in 2024 [9][10] Key Industry Insights US BESS Demand - **Expectation**: Strong US Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) demand anticipated to persist into 2026-27, estimated at around 50GWh in 2026 [1] - **Drivers**: Substantial projects initiated by the end of 2025 to circumvent Prohibited Foreign Entity (PFE) constraints [1] - **Partnerships**: Actively collaborating with global battery suppliers to meet non-PFE requirements [1] - **Tariff Impact**: Existing order tariffs will be shared with customers, potentially impacting earnings by approximately Rmb0.5 billion in 2025 [1] AIDC Influence on BESS - **Growth Projection**: Over 200GWh incremental BESS demand expected from Artificial Intelligence Data Centers (AIDC) between 2025-2030 [2] - **Functions**: 1. Backup power and load volatility management with a 50% attachment rate and 2-hour duration 2. Grid power supply, typically associated with solar, requiring longer durations of over 4 hours [2] Global Market Growth - **Ex-US Demand**: Anticipated robust growth in BESS demand outside the US: - 50% growth in Europe - 50-100% growth in Asia-Pacific (APAC) - Over 60% growth in the Middle East and Africa [3] - **C&I Storage Demand**: Global Commercial & Industrial (C&I) storage demand projected to triple from 20GWh in 2025 to 60GWh by 2060, driven by dynamic electricity pricing [3] - **Profit Margins**: Over 40% Gross Profit Margin (GPM) expected in high-end markets (Europe, Australia) versus less than 10% for shipments to China [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues from Rmb40.257 billion in 2022 to Rmb200.739 billion by 2029 [5] - **Earnings Growth**: Net earnings expected to rise from Rmb3.593 billion in 2022 to Rmb28.602 billion by 2029 [5] - **Valuation**: Current valuation at 20x 2026E Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio deemed undemanding, with a "Buy" rating maintained [4] Investment Outlook - **Price Target**: Rmb225.00 with a current price of Rmb200.50 as of November 5, 2025 [6] - **Forecast Returns**: Expected stock return of 13.2%, including a 12.2% price appreciation and a 1.0% dividend yield [8] Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: Potential risks include slowing global solar and energy storage demand, slower inverter and energy storage system cost reductions, and lower-than-expected average selling prices (ASP) [10] Additional Insights - **Upcoming Catalysts**: Anticipated positive catalysts include higher US Energy Storage System (ESS) shipments, improved demand in the EU, and more details on new AIDC products [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Power Sector - **Electricity Demand**: PRC electricity consumption grew by 4.5% year-on-year (y/y) to 888.6 million MWh in September, with a slight deceleration from 4.6% in August [2][8] - **Power Generation Capacity**: New power generation capacity added in September was 21.6 GW, a decrease of 33.9% y/y, with significant drops in solar and wind installations [3][10] Core Insights - **Electricity Demand Breakdown**: - Industrial sector: 64% (+5.7% y/y) - Services sector: 20% (+6.3% y/y) - Residential sector: 14% (–2.6% y/y) - Farming and fishing: 2% (+7.3% y/y) [2][14] - **Power Grid Capital Expenditure (Capex)**: - Total power grid capex increased by 9.9% y/y to RMB 437.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025, but fell by 11.0% y/y to RMB 58.2 billion in September [4][11] - **Utilization Rates**: - Average utilization of power plants decreased by 9.6% y/y to 263 hours in September, with notable declines in thermal, wind, and solar power utilization [5][13] Investment Opportunities - **Top Picks**: - **Sieyuan Electric**: High export growth in power grid equipment [1] - **Goldwind**: Strong sales volume and margin increases in wind equipment [1] - **Sungrow**: Significant growth in energy storage system (ESS) shipments [1] Additional Insights - **Solar Installations**: The decline in solar installations in September was attributed to the end of rush installations following government policy changes [3][10] - **Future Expectations**: Anticipation of a recovery in national power grid capex in October based on delivery schedules from grid equipment manufacturers [1] - **Structural Changes**: Expected declines in wind and solar utilization rates in 2025 due to new capacity being added in less favorable areas [5] Risks - **Goldwind**: Risks include fewer-than-expected new orders and less favorable government policies [29] - **Sieyuan**: Risks include lower-than-expected PRC grid capex and higher raw material costs [31] - **Sungrow**: Risks include slower-than-expected solar installations and intensified trade tensions affecting exports [34]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08% last week, closing at 3997.56 points, with a peak of 4012.01 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.19%, ending at 13404.06 points, with a high of 13496.7 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a 0.65% rise, closing at 3208.21 points, reaching a maximum of 3240.34 points [1] - In contrast, major global indices experienced declines, with the Nasdaq Composite down by 3.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 1.21%, and the S&P 500 down by 1.63% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.29%, while the Nikkei 225 fell by 4.07% [1] New Stock Issuance - Four new stocks were issued last week, with details as follows: - Nanfang Digital (301638.SZ) on November 7, 2025 - Hengkun New Materials (688727.SH) on November 7, 2025 - Dapeng Industrial (920091.BJ) on November 5, 2025 - Beikuan Testing (920160.BJ) on November 3, 2025 [2] Margin Financing and Securities Lending - The total margin financing and securities lending balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 24857.39 billion, with a financing balance of 24675.74 billion and a securities lending balance of 181.65 billion [3] - This represents an increase of 72.69 billion compared to the previous week [3] - The Shanghai market's margin balance was 12691.71 billion, up by 74.28 billion, while the Shenzhen market's balance was 12165.68 billion, down by 1.59 billion [3] - A total of 3460 stocks had margin buying, with 178 stocks exceeding 1 billion in buying amount, led by Sunshine Power (162.82 billion), Zhongji Xuchuang (115.5 billion), and TBEA (100.09 billion) [3] Fund Issuance - A total of 21 new funds were issued last week, including various bond and mixed funds [5] - Notable funds include: - Lobo Mai CSI A500 Index Enhanced B - Huafu Fuze Six-Month Holding Period Bond A - Penghua Innovation Future Mixed (LOF) A [5] Share Buyback Announcements - There were 21 new share buyback announcements last week, with the highest execution amounts from: - COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) - Lakala (300773) - Mars (300894) - Jiantou Energy (000600) - Zhongkong Technology (688777) [8] - The top three industries by buyback amount were transportation, non-bank financials, and household appliances [8]

Group 1: Market Performance - The New Energy ETF has a turnover rate of 6.88% during trading, with a transaction volume of 106 million yuan [3] - The latest scale of the New Energy ETF reached 1.534 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [3] - In the past three months, the New Energy ETF has seen an increase of 246 million shares, indicating significant growth [3] - Over the last five trading days, the New Energy ETF has attracted a total of 62.2153 million yuan in inflows [3] Group 2: Fund Performance - As of November 7, the New Energy ETF's net value has increased by 72.23% over the past six months, ranking 91 out of 3859 in index equity funds, placing it in the top 2.36% [3] - Since its inception, the New Energy ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 25.07%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being six months and the highest cumulative increase being 67.53% [3] - The average return during the months of increase is 8.57% [3] Group 3: Industry Insights - According to Everbright Securities, the demand for energy storage batteries is expected to grow rapidly by 2026, while the growth of power batteries remains stable [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to be the most important investment theme in the photovoltaic industry in 2026, with the silicon material segment expected to achieve capacity clearing and profit recovery first [3] - Companies with differentiated photovoltaic technologies and leading advantages are likely to gain excess profits during industry cycle fluctuations [3] Group 4: Stock Performance - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities New Energy Index include: Sunshine Power, CATL, Longi Green Energy, Eve Energy, TBEA, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, China Nuclear Power, Tongwei Co., and Lead Intelligent, collectively accounting for 46.1% of the index [6]

Group 1 - The green energy ETF (562010) continues its upward trend, with a nearly 2% increase during trading, marking a four-day consecutive rise and reaching the highest point since February 2023 [1] - Key stocks driving the ETF's performance include Tianhua New Energy, which rose over 7%, and other companies like Enjie, Jiejia Weichuang, and Tianqi Lithium, all showing significant gains [1] Group 2 - The white paper "China's Action on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" was released on November 8, emphasizing the acceleration of a new energy system and the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) as a critical phase for achieving carbon peak goals [3] - Dongwu Securities forecasts a 40-50% growth in energy storage demand next year due to the gradual introduction of compensation electricity prices and tight supply, alongside unexpected demand from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act [3] - The upcoming 2025 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference will take place in Chengdu from November 17-20, highlighting the industry's focus on green energy [3] Group 3 - The green energy ETF passively tracks a green energy index, with the top three sectors being batteries, photovoltaic equipment, and electricity, collectively accounting for over 75% of the index's weight as of the end of October [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include leading companies such as CATL, Sungrow Power, and BYD, indicating a strong concentration in the green energy sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The electrolyte market has seen a significant price increase due to tight supply of key additives like lithium hexafluorophosphate, VC, and FEC, driven by sustained growth in downstream demand [2][3] Demand - The energy storage sector is expected to drive a new lithium battery cycle, with Q1 2026 anticipated to remain strong despite seasonal trends. Historical large-scale lithium cycles have been primarily demand-driven, with the upcoming period from 2025 to 2027 expected to be driven by global energy transition [2][3] - According to CESA's database, China's new overseas orders/cooperation in energy storage reached 214.7 GWh from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 131.75%. As these orders materialize, Q1 2026 is expected to be robust [2][3] Supply Elasticity - The supply elasticity in the electrolyte segment is the lowest, while structural demand and supply resonance exist in copper foil, separators, and high-end lithium iron phosphate. The negative electrode supply faces high energy consumption constraints [3] - New capacity for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate is slow to build due to environmental regulations and construction timelines of approximately 1 to 1.5 years for hexafluorophosphate and about 1 year for lithium iron phosphate. The demand for fourth-generation lithium iron phosphate products is strong [3] - The graphite anode segment has high energy consumption characteristics, with an expansion period of about 1 year. Other segments like copper foil also face significant environmental pressures. The wet separator market is expected to gain market share due to energy storage demand, remaining tight [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the lithium battery upcycle driven by energy storage demand and suggests focusing on companies such as CATL, EVE Energy, Tiankang Materials, Dafa, Putailai, Shanta Technology, Fulin Precision, Wanrun New Energy, Sungrow Power, Haibo Sichuang, Huasheng Lithium Battery, Shida Shenghua, and Enjie [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup visited Sungrow Power Supply's inverter and energy storage system factory in Hefei, Anhui, noting high capacity utilization and increased automation through the use of robotic arms. The firm reiterated a buy rating on the company and raised the target price by 20% to 240 CNY [1] Financial Projections - Analysts Pierre Lau and others indicated that Citigroup's net profit forecasts for Sungrow Power Supply from 2025 to 2027 are 9.6% to 16.5% higher than Bloomberg consensus estimates, with potential for further upward revisions [1] - The company is expected to see energy storage system shipments grow by 70% and 40% in 2025 and 2026, reaching 47.6 GWh and 66.6 GWh respectively [1] Market Positioning - The company is positioned as a preferred choice in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors [1] - A potential listing in Hong Kong in the first quarter of next year is anticipated to enhance its global visibility [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The financing and margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 24,857.39 billion yuan during the week of November 3 to November 7, with a net increase of 72.69 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Financing and Margin Trading Data - The financing balance reached 24,675.74 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 65.85 billion yuan [1]. - The Shanghai market's margin trading balance was 12,691.71 billion yuan, up by 74.28 billion yuan from the previous trading day, while the Shenzhen market's balance was 12,165.68 billion yuan, down by 1.59 billion yuan [1]. Net Buying of Stocks - A total of 1,641 stocks experienced net buying of financing funds, with three stocks exceeding 1 billion yuan in net buying: Tianfu Communication (16.64 billion yuan), TBEA (16.47 billion yuan), and Sungrow Power Supply (11.09 billion yuan) [3][5]. - The top three stocks by net buying amount were Tianfu Communication, TBEA, and Sungrow Power Supply, with respective price increases of 10.75%, 35.34%, and 5.9% [5]. Stocks with High Net Buying Proportion - Two stocks had financing net buying amounts exceeding 10% of their total transaction amounts: Youche Technology (13.03%) and Hengxing New Materials (10.58%) [6][7].

Core Insights - The Anhui Province Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Innovation Development Conference was held on November 8, focusing on technological breakthroughs, scenario expansion, and ecological co-construction in the photovoltaic and energy storage industry, resulting in 26 project signings with an investment amount of 9.283 billion yuan [1] - The conference showcased advanced technologies, products, and application scenarios in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors, highlighting the latest achievements in industry development [1] - Anhui has prioritized the development of the new energy industry, particularly advanced photovoltaic and new energy storage, achieving a comprehensive competitive strength ranking third nationally since the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Industry Development - Anhui's photovoltaic glass, batteries, components, inverters, and energy storage systems are globally leading in performance, with cutting-edge technologies like perovskite and solid-state batteries ranking in the top tier of the industry [2] - The province has nurtured 10 enterprises in the energy storage sector with revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, 48 national-level "little giant" enterprises, and 161 provincial-level specialized and innovative enterprises, creating a robust enterprise ecosystem [2] - The revenue scale of Anhui's energy storage industry has grown from 80 billion yuan in 2020 to over 400 billion yuan by the end of last year, achieving a fivefold increase in four years [2] Future Projections - By September 2025, Anhui aims to reach an installed capacity of 54.38 million kilowatts for advanced photovoltaics and 3.73 million kilowatts for new energy storage, representing a threefold and 21-fold increase, respectively, since the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - The export value of Anhui's energy storage products has increased from 13.9 billion yuan to 43.9 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, more than doubling in four years [2] - Companies like Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. have achieved the highest global shipment volume for energy storage systems, while Guoxuan High-Tech has established production bases overseas, enhancing the international recognition of Anhui's energy storage brands [2]

Group 1 - Citi raised the target price for Sungrow Power by 20% due to cost reductions and increased market share overseas [1] - The new target price is set at 240 yuan, maintaining a buy rating [1] - Sungrow Power is reaffirmed as the preferred stock in the solar and energy storage systems industry [1]