证 券 研 究 报 告 中际旭创（300308）2025 年业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，1.6T 有望快速放量 当前价：649.00 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 23,862 | 38,337 | 90,981 | 145,304 | | 同比增速(%) | 122.6% | 60.7% | 137.3% | 59.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,171 | 10,889 | 28,081 | 47,186 | | 同比增速(%) | 137.9% | 110.6% | 157.9% | 68.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.65 | 9.80 | 25.27 | 42.47 | | 市盈率(倍) | 139 | 66 | 26 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 37.7 | 24.6 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The report anticipates a volatile market in February due to previous regulatory signals and significant ETF outflows, with market activity expected to decline before the Spring Festival and improve post-holiday as policy catalysts emerge [3][4] - The focus remains on cyclical price increases, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and AI, which are expected to maintain a positive trend [3][4] - The liquidity situation is mixed, with increased inflows from retail investors countered by significant ETF sell-offs, leading to a challenging funding environment before the Spring Festival [3][4] Key Stock Recommendations - **Jianghuai Automobile (江淮汽车)**: Positioned as the only domestic ultra-luxury brand, with the S800 model outperforming competitors like Mercedes-Benz. The company plans to launch 6-7 high-end models, indicating substantial growth potential [5][8] - **Luxshare Precision (立讯精密)**: A key player in the Apple supply chain, with strong growth prospects in consumer electronics and automotive sectors. The company is expected to achieve rapid earnings growth over the next few years [5][11] - **Sinyi Technology (生益科技)**: As a leading manufacturer of CCL, the company is well-positioned for long-term growth with a focus on high-end product upgrades and strong market demand [5][15] - **Tianqi Lithium (天赐材料)**: The largest manufacturer of electrolytes with a market share of approximately 40%. The company is expected to see significant profit recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics in the lithium industry [5][20] - **Li Ning (李宁)**: The company is accelerating its product and channel expansion, with new product launches expected to drive a turnaround in performance [5][20] - **Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创)**: A leader in optical modules, benefiting from strong overseas demand. The company is expanding its production capacity to meet increasing market needs [5][27] - **Xinyi Technology (新易盛)**: The company is experiencing continuous growth in high-speed products, with a strong outlook for 2026 [5][27] - **Foshan Plastics (佛塑科技)**: The acquisition of a key supplier is expected to enhance performance significantly, with a focus on the tightening supply-demand situation in the industry [5][27] - **Century Huatong (世纪华通)**: The company is leveraging its partnership with Tencent to enhance its game development and distribution capabilities, indicating strong future growth potential [5][27] - **Tencent Holdings (腾讯控股)**: The company has a solid foundation with a rich game product pipeline and is accelerating its AI application ecosystem [6][27] Market Trends and Expectations - The report highlights a trend of price increases spreading from cyclical sectors like oil and food to technology sectors, particularly AI and semiconductors, which are expected to continue benefiting from policy support [3][4] - The upcoming Two Sessions in March are anticipated to catalyze policy developments that could positively impact market performance [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of sector rotation as a key characteristic of the market in February, with a focus on cyclical price increases and technology sectors [3][4]

Q4 毛利率预计持续提升，未来1.6T/硅光产品有望进一步提高盈利能力： 事件： 公司2025年业绩预告，2025年公司预计实现归母净利润98-118亿元，同比增长90%-128%；扣非归母净 利润97-117亿元，同比增长91%-131%。其中Q4预计归母净利润27-47亿元，同比增长90%-231%。业绩 符合预期。 算力需求带动业绩增长，Q4 业绩受子公司亏损影响：报告期内受益于终端客户对算力基础设施的强劲 投入，公司产品出货较快增长，其中高速光模块占比持续提高，且随着产品方案不断优化、运营效率继 续提升，公司营业收入与净利润均较去年同期实现较大增长，我们预计后续伴随1.6T 加速出货以及公 司硅光方案缓解光芯片等物料紧缺影响，2026 年业绩有望持续高增长。报告期内计提存货减值、应收 账款信用减值合计1.13亿元，股票激励等项目合计减少净利润2.23 亿元，汇兑损失2.7 亿元；另一方面 投资收益及公允价值变动收益合计增加净利润2.96 亿元。整体看四季度净利率预计环比小幅下滑，主要 受控股子公司君歌电子四季度亏损7000-8000 万影响，此外汇兑损失、研发费用计提等因素同样影响利 润表现。 公司电 ...

券商2026年2月"金股"名单出炉。据中国证券报记者不完全统计，截至2月2日发稿时，已有超过200只A 股及港股标的入围券商2月"金股"名单。从推荐频次看，阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股、紫金矿业 （601899）、中际旭创（300308）、中国平安等标的推荐频次居前。 作为港股市场明星标的，截至2月2日记者发稿，阿里巴巴-W已入围6家券商2月"金股"组合，是机构青 睐标的，看好的券商包括光大证券、华源证券、兴业证券、国盛证券（002670）、申万宏源证券 （000562）、国信证券。从推荐理由看，华源证券认为，阿里巴巴-W云业务高速增长，市场份额领 先；C端AI产品打通生态，用户量快速增长；大模型研发顺利，性能持续提升。 包括阿里巴巴-W在内，截至2月2日记者发稿时，已有201只A股及H股标的入围券商2月"金股"名单，腾 讯控股2月共获得5家券商联合推荐，看好的券商包括光大证券、中国银河（601881）、国盛证券、国联 民生（601456）、申万宏源证券；福斯特（603806）、中际旭创、紫金矿业均获得4家券商联合推荐， 关注度相对较高。 从券商2月"金股"行业分布情况看，电子行业继续成为含"金"量最高的板块，合计 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on February 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46% [12] - The total trading volume across the three markets was 26,069.20 billion, a decrease of 2,558.2 billion from the previous day, with over 4,600 stocks declining [12][14] - The smart grid sector showed resilience, with several stocks such as Tongguang Cable and Baobian Electric reaching their daily limit [12] Sector Performance - The white wine sector rebounded, driven by rising consumption and increasing prices, with Moutai's wholesale price rising by 160 yuan to 1,770 yuan per bottle [12] - The commodity futures market saw significant declines, with precious metals and energy sectors experiencing sharp drops, including a more than 15% decline in gold [13] - The electronic industry faced the largest net outflow of funds, with Zhongji Xuchuang leading the outflow [25][26] Investment Insights - The current market conditions suggest a potential shift in investment styles, with discussions around inflation recovery and corporate profit recovery gaining traction [11] - The relative PE-TTM ratio of the CSI 1000 compared to the CSI 300 is at 3.55, indicating a high valuation level [11] - The market is characterized by crowded trades in certain sectors, necessitating significant fundamental changes for excess returns, while less crowded sectors may yield better returns with minor improvements [11] Key Stocks and Funds - Notable net inflows were observed in the electric power equipment, banking, and food and beverage sectors, while the electronic and non-ferrous metal sectors saw significant outflows [26] - Major stocks with net inflows included Xinye Technology and West Materials, while Zhongji Xuchuang and Zhaoyi Innovation faced the largest outflows [26][30]

2026年02月01日，中际旭创披露接待调研公告，公司于01月31日接待睿远基金、国信证券、浙商证券、 中泰证券、华源证券、摩根大通证券(中国)等140家机构调研。 中际旭创（300308）最新股价为591.00元，较前一交易日收盘价下跌58.00元，跌幅为8.94%，总市值 6566.71亿元。从行业市盈率来看，中际旭创所处的通信设备行业滚动市盈率平均88.90倍，行业中值 95.04倍，中际旭创76.80倍排名第27位。 调研情况显示，中际旭创发布2025年业绩预告，归母净利润区间98-118亿元，同比增长 89.50%-128.17%；扣非净利润97-117亿元，同比增长91.38%-130.84%。2025年各季度收入均呈现稳定环 比增长趋势，毛利率也呈现环比提升，主要受益于高端产品比重增加、硅光比例提升等因素。 公司2025年四季度重点客户需求和订单保持快速增长，800G等产品出货量持续环比增长，1.6T在三季 度开始正式向重点客户出货，四季度上量更加迅速。硅光占比持续提升，其中800G硅光出货量占比进 一步提升，1.6T硅光占比较800G更高，对四季度毛利率提升起到显著作用。 在投资者问答环节，公 ...

Performance Highlights - New Yi Sheng (300502.SZ) expects net profit between 9.4 billion and 9.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% due to rising demand for high-speed optical modules driven by global computing power investments[4] - Han's Chip (688256.SH) anticipates net profit between 1.85 billion and 2.15 billion CNY, turning from a loss of 450 million CNY last year, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing power[5] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) projects net profit between 9.8 billion and 11.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17%, driven by strong customer investment in computing infrastructure[6] - Runze Technology (300442.SZ) expects net profit between 5 billion and 5.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, largely due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance[10] Underperformance Highlights - Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) forecasts net profit of 9.912 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 21.71% due to increased marketing expenses and competitive pressures[36] - GAC Group (601238.SH) expects a net loss between 8 billion and 9 billion CNY, turning from a profit of 824 million CNY last year, impacted by fierce competition and increased asset impairment provisions[39] - Xiexin Integrated (002506.SZ) anticipates a net loss between 890 million and 1.29 billion CNY, shifting from a profit of 68 million CNY last year due to structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry[41] - Baile Tianheng (688506.SH) projects a net loss of around 1.1 billion CNY, down from a profit of 3.708 billion CNY last year, primarily due to increased R&D expenses[42] Industry Trends - Technology-driven sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are leading growth, with companies like New Yi Sheng and Han's Chip benefiting from strong demand and technological advancements[69] - Cost control is becoming a critical competitive advantage, particularly in the energy and manufacturing sectors, as seen with companies like Datang Power (601991.SH) benefiting from lower coal prices[70] - Traditional cyclical industries such as real estate and agriculture are facing significant downward pressure, with companies like Vanke (000002.SZ) and Tianbang Foods (002124.SZ) experiencing substantial losses due to market adjustments[72]

| | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 23,862 | 38,337 | 90,981 | 145,304 | | 同比增速(%) | 122.6% | 60.7% | 137.3% | 59.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,171 | 10,889 | 28,081 | 47,186 | | 同比增速(%) | 137.9% | 110.6% | 157.9% | 68.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.65 | 9.80 | 25.27 | 42.47 | | 市盈率(倍) | 139 | 66 | 26 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 37.7 | 24.6 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价 证 券 研 究 报 告 中际旭创（300308）2025 年业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，1.6T 有望快速放量 当前价：649.00 元 [ReportFinancialIndex ...

2026 年 02 月 02 日 券商金股解析月报（2026 年 02 月） 金融工程研究团队 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《开源量化评论（23）-"金股+"组 合的量化方案》-2021.4.26 《开源量化评论（32）-券商金股的内 部收益结构》-2021.8.29 魏建榕（分析师） 高鹏（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 gaopeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090002 2 月份券商金股特征解析 2 月份紫金矿业、中际旭创、海光信息、万华化学、贵州茅台、福斯特、山东黄 金等金股推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance forecast of various A-share listed companies, indicating a significant divergence in earnings growth across different sectors, driven by technological advancements, cost control, and industry cycles [4][62]. Group 1: Companies with Strong Earnings Growth - **New Yisheng (300502.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86%, driven by rising demand for high-speed optical modules due to global computing power investments [6]. - **Han's Laser (688256.SH)**: Expected net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion, turning from a loss of 0.452 billion in the previous year, benefiting from the increasing demand for AI computing power [8]. - **Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17%, supported by strong investment in computing infrastructure [10]. - **Runze Technology (300442.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 5 billion to 5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, primarily due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance [12]. - **CITIC Securities (601995.SH)**: Expected net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85%, driven by steady growth in core business segments [15]. Group 2: Companies with Earnings Below Expectations - **Great Wall Motors (601633.SH)**: Expected net profit of 9.912 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71%, impacted by increased marketing expenses and intense competition [34]. - **GAC Group (601238.SH)**: Expected net profit of -8 billion to -9 billion, turning from a profit of 0.824 billion in the previous year, due to fierce competition and adjustments in product structure [36]. - **GCL-Poly Energy (002506.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -0.89 billion to -1.29 billion, turning from a profit of 0.068 billion, affected by structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry [38]. - **Boli Tianheng (688506.SH)**: Expected net profit of -1.1 billion, turning from a profit of 3.708 billion, due to increased R&D expenses [39]. - **Daiyue City (000031.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -2.7 billion to -2.1 billion, continuing losses from the previous year, influenced by asset impairment provisions [42]. Group 3: Industry Trends - **Technological Breakthroughs**: Industries driven by technology, such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, are showing strong growth, with companies like New Yisheng and Rongchang Bio leading the way [62][63]. - **Cost Control**: The energy and manufacturing sectors are experiencing a clear divide, with companies like Datang Power benefiting from lower coal prices and effective cost management [64]. - **Downward Pressure from Industry Cycles**: The real estate, agriculture, and photovoltaic sectors are under significant pressure, with companies like Vanke and Tianbang Food facing substantial earnings declines [65][66].