【中信证券通信】推荐三条投资主线240218 一、【旭创＋天孚等】AI巨头竞逐火热，光模块龙头有望补涨！ 1、1月底到2月份，AI模型和应用端的突破加速，推动英伟达、Coherent等核心龙头年初以来涨幅接近 40％～50％，旭创、天孚涨幅只有10％～20％。 2、云巨头capex趋势向好，微软、谷歌均认可AI对核心业务增长的明显拉动，各家均表示2024年资本支 出将保持较好的增长，24-25年的增长清晰度加强。 3、短短假期，AI巨头竞逐火热：假期，GeminiUltra开放、Gemini 1.5火速推出，OpenAI取消了GPT-4 Turbo的所有每日限制、视频生成模型Sora重磅发布，巨头的火热竞逐，算力与网络升级仍是最确定的 高景气方向。 4、光模块核心龙头有望补涨：在AI模型和应用端竞逐、云厂商Capex向好的推动下，2024年1.6T加速部 署、800G新客户都是潜在的超预期机会，旭创＋天孚等有望迎来估值回升和补涨行情，坚定推荐！ 二、【中国铁塔＋运营商】优质央企持续兑现。 三、关注优质细分龙头的超跌机会：设备商＋物联网龙头等。前期市场波动，导致部分优质龙头存在明 显错杀，从价值回归的角度，推荐 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citi believes that 2026 will be the year when 800G optical modules dominate the market, with a projected sales volume of 37 million units, representing an 85% year-on-year growth driven primarily by demand from overseas cloud service providers [1][3]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for 800G optical modules is expected to be robust, with over 90% of this demand coming from overseas cloud service providers (CSPs) [3]. - The deployment speed of 1.6T Ethernet switches may slow down, leading to a downward revision of demand forecasts for 1.6T modules [3]. - The market share distribution will be influenced by production capacity and delivery capabilities, with a preference for second-tier suppliers among overseas customers [3]. Group 2: Company Performance and Predictions - Citi's rating hierarchy for companies in the sector is as follows: Eoptolink > Innolight > T&S > TFC, with a particular focus on Eoptolink due to its strong performance in 800G/1.6T products and capacity [4]. - Eoptolink is expected to benefit significantly from the strong demand for 800G, with projections indicating that 75% of its sales will come from this segment by 2026 [15]. - Innolight is also anticipated to capture a substantial share of the 800G demand due to its superior supply capabilities and ongoing silicon photonics migration [17][18]. Group 3: Financial Forecasts and Market Trends - The 2025-2027 shipment forecasts for 400G, 800G, and 1.6T modules have been adjusted, reflecting an increase in 800G shipments and a decrease in 1.6T due to industry demand delays [17]. - The overall market valuation is expected to recover, with industry price-to-earnings ratios projected to rise from 8-10 times to 15-20 times by 2025, driven by cloud infrastructure upgrades and higher optical module integration rates [9]. - The anticipated strong demand for 800G and the potential delay in 1.6T migration may pose risks for CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) deployment, which could be pushed to 2027 [9]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting, with more second-tier suppliers entering the supply chain due to insufficient supply from first-tier suppliers [13]. - Companies like Suzhou Taicheng Light are facing challenges due to lower-than-expected InfiniBand penetration and weak GB200 rack numbers, which may impact their 1.6T demand [20][21]. - The ongoing silicon photonics migration is expected to provide cost advantages for companies like Innolight and Eoptolink, allowing them to maintain higher profit margins compared to competitors who rely on external design sources [18].

证券代码：300394 证券简称：天孚通信 公告编号：2025-022 苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司 关于完成工商变更登记并换发营业执照的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 4 月 18 日， 公司召开第五届董事会第二次会议、第五届监事会第二次会议及 2024 年 5 月 13 日召开 2023 年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于 2021 年限制性股票激励计划第 三个归属期归属条件成就的议案》，认为 2021 年限制性股票激励计划第三个归属 期归属条件已经成就，同意按照规定为符合条件的激励对象办理第二类限制性股 票归属相关事宜；2024 年 12 月，公司办理完成了 2021 年限制性股票激励计划 第三个归属期第二批次的股份归属的登记工作，归属股票数量 60,480 股。具体 内容详见刊登在巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）的相关公告（公告编号：2024- 008、2024-022、2024-023）。 公司于 2025 年 4 月 17 日召开第五届董事会第六次会议 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry and its sub-sectors, including communication operators [9]. Core Insights - China Mobile has initiated a centralized procurement project for ordinary optical cable products for 2025-2026, with a notable decrease in both procurement scale and price limits, indicating a downward trend in capital expenditure for traditional connections [2][3]. - The optical fiber and cable manufacturers are expected to seek new growth points in saturated markets, such as undersea cables and data center interconnect (DCI) [2][3]. - The report highlights the need to monitor the bidding progress of optical fiber and cable manufacturers and their breakthroughs in new directions [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The communication index rose by 4.96% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, which increased by 1.92% and 2.29%, respectively [2][13]. - The procurement scale for China Mobile's current round is 0.99 billion core kilometers, down 30.98% from 2021 and 8.65% from 2023 [14]. Procurement Details - The maximum price limit for this round is set at 5.675 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.44% from 2021 and 25.57% from 2023 [14]. - The average procurement price is 57.42 yuan per core kilometer, down 16.6% from 2021 and 18.72% from 2023 [14]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, with target prices and ratings indicating a bullish outlook [10]. - Specific companies highlighted for their potential include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, all rated as "Buy" [10]. Industry Trends - The report notes a significant shift in focus towards AI computing chains and core asset value reassessment within the communication industry [4]. - The demand for optical cables in data centers is projected to account for approximately 5% of global demand by 2025, increasing to over 11% by 2030 [18]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment among optical cable manufacturers is expected to intensify due to the reduced procurement scale and price limits, with a maximum share of 19.36% for winning bidders [15][18]. - Major players are expanding into international undersea communication projects, with companies like Hengtong Optic-Electric actively participating in global markets [19].

创业板人工智能ETF华夏（159381）跟踪创业板人工智能指数，选取创业板上市的AI主业公司，实现 AI产业硬件+软件+应用龙头全覆盖。行业分布上在光模块、光芯片、IT服务等概念上的暴露度较高， 前十大成分股股包含新易盛、中际旭创、天孚通信三大光模块龙头，北京君正、全志科技两大芯片设计 公司，以及软通动力、润泽科技、光环新网、网宿科技、深信服等IDC、云计算、数据中心行业龙头公 司。 5月13日，A股AI科技板块高开后震荡回落。 相关ETF方面，截至午间收盘，创业板人工智能ETF华夏（159381）收平。成分股方面，该ETF第一大 重仓股新易盛涨2.6%，光环新网、奥飞数据、首都在线等股纷纷跟涨。 值得一提的是，创业板人工智能ETF华夏（159381），综合费率位居人工智能ETF内最低一档，年管理 费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 消息面上，近期AI领域将迎来密集催化，据中信建投梳理： （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 财报方面，腾讯和阿里都将在5月14日公布一季报，持续关注Capex指引和AI应用布局进 ...

天孚通信年度股东大会 法律意见书 本所律师同意将本法律意见书随公司本次年度股东大会决议一并公告，并依 法对本法律意见书承担相应的责任。 本所律师根据相关法律、法规和规范性文件的要求，按照律师行业公认的业 务标准、道德规范和勤勉尽责精神，出具法律意见如下： 一、关于本次年度股东大会的召集、召开程序 1、本次年度股东大会的召集 2025 年 4 月 17 日，公司召开了第五届董事会第六次会议，会议决定于 2025 年 5 月 12 日召开 2024 年年度股东大会。公司已于 2025 年 4 月 21 日在巨潮资讯 网站（www.cninfo.com.cn）上刊登了《苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司关于召开 2024 年年度股东大会的通知》。 江苏世纪同仁律师事务所 关于苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司 2024 年年度 股东大会的法律意见书 致：苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上市公司股东 会规则》和《深圳证券交易所上市公司股东会网络投票实施细则（2025 修订）》 等法律、法规和规范性文件以及公司《章程》的规定，本所接受公司董事会委托， 指派本所律师出席公司 2024 年 ...

证券代码：300394 证券简称：天孚通信 公告编号：2025-021 苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、本次股东大会未出现否决议案的情形。 2、本次股东大会未涉及变更以往股东大会已通过的决议。 一、会议召开和出席情况 （一）会议召开情况 苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"天孚通信"）2024 年 年度股东大会现场会议于 2025 年 5 月 12 日（星期一）下午 14:30，在苏州高新 区长江路 695 号公司会议室以现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式召开。本次会议 通知已于 2025 年 4 月 21 日在中国证监会指定信息披露网站公告。本次会议由 公司董事会召集，公司董事长邹支农先生主持。本次会议的召开符合《中华人民 共和国公司法》、《上市公司股东会规则》及《公司章程》等有关法律、行政法 规、部门规章、规范性文件的规定。 公司 2024 年年度股东大会通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的具 体时间为 2025 年 5 月 12 日上午 9:15-9 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 10 年 月 日 祛魅后的真成长—本轮光模块行情的思考 本轮光模块板块自 5 月初以来强势反弹。5 月 6 日至 9 日，通信设备 ETF （159583）上涨 6.3%，新易盛（300502）涨超 20%，中际旭创（300308） 和天孚通信（300394）分别涨超 13%与 8%，仕佳光子（688313）亦 有 12.7%的优异表现，重新出现了主流资金的回归。在光模块经历了 两轮牛市后，有哪些框架需要修正、祛魅？本报告围绕四大思考维度 深入复盘：一是产品迭代节奏回归常识；二是 CPO 技术的定位与可插 拔方案共存；三是下游无源器件的价值被低估；四是行业格局与卡位 逻辑。通过论证，我们认为，当前估值与基本面双修复，正值布局良机。 1、400G、800G、1.6T 一年一代？——快进的升级迭代回归常识 ➢ 光模块 800G 仍是主流，1.6T 趋势确定 800G 光模块仍将保持主流地位，1.6T 产业进展 25 年起步，放量需 26 年及以后，但趋势确定。近年资本市场对 400G→800G→1.6T 光模块的 升级预期一度过于激进，但 80 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024, indicating strong operational performance and market demand [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 3.252 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 68% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.344 billion yuan, up 84% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.314 billion yuan, reflecting an 83% increase year-on-year [1]. Business Segment Analysis - In 2024, the company's passive optical components business generated revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a 33% increase year-on-year, while the active optical components business saw revenue of 1.655 billion yuan, up 122% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic revenue reached 778 million yuan, growing by 125% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 2.473 billion yuan, marking a 55% increase year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for passive components was 68.4%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year, while active components had a gross margin of 46.7%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Operational Insights - In the second half of 2024, the company reported passive revenue of 879 million yuan, a 26% increase from the first half, attributed to workforce expansion and increased customer demand [2]. - Active revenue was 835 million yuan, reflecting a 2% increase from the first half, indicating stable demand for 800G optical engine products [2]. - The company’s inventory increased by 13.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, suggesting a positive demand outlook [3]. Strategic Developments - The establishment of overseas production capabilities, particularly in Thailand, is expected to enhance delivery capacity and mitigate tariff impacts [3]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the emerging markets of CPO (Chip-on-Board) and Optical I/O, driven by AI advancements and increasing bandwidth requirements [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in net profit, projecting 2.081 billion yuan in 2025, 2.741 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.386 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 55%, 32%, and 24% [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its strong growth trajectory and market positioning [4].

证券代码：300394 证券简称：天孚通信 公告编号：2025-020 苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司 关于 2023 年限制性股票激励计划首次授予第一个归属 期限制性股票归属结果暨股份上市的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1、本次归属的激励对象人数：364 人； 2、本次归属股票数量：1,324,904 股 ，占目前公司总股本 0.24%； 3、本次归属限制性股票上市流通日为：2025 年 5 月 13 日； 4、归属股票来源：公司向激励对象定向发行公司 A 股普通股股票 苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"天孚通信"）于 2025 年 4 月 17 日召开了第五届董事会第六次会议和第五届监事会第六次会议审议通过了 《关于 2023 年限制性股票激励计划首次授予第一个归属期归属条件成就的议案》。 近日，公司办理了 2023 年限制性股票激励计划首次授予第一个归属期股份的登记 工作，现将详情公告如下： 一、2023 年限制性股票激励计划实施情况概要 （一）本股权激励计划主要内容及履行程序 1、2023 年限制性股票 ...