Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The delivery of passive product lines is accelerating in H2 2024, while active products are awaiting the ramp-up of new 1.6T products. The company reported a revenue of 3.252 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.344 billion yuan, up 84% year-on-year [6][11]. - The company is experiencing improved cost management in Q4 2024, with inventory levels increasing by 13.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive demand outlook. The establishment of overseas production capacity is expected to enhance delivery capabilities and mitigate tariff impacts [11][12]. - The CPO/OIO market presents significant growth opportunities, driven by AI advancements and the increasing demand for high-performance optical modules [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's passive components business generated revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a 33% increase year-on-year, while the active components business achieved 1.655 billion yuan, a 122% increase year-on-year. Domestic revenue reached 778 million yuan, up 125%, and overseas revenue was 2.473 billion yuan, up 55% [11][12]. - The gross margin for passive components was 68.4%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year, while active components had a gross margin of 46.7%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [11][12]. Cost Management and Production Capacity - In Q4 2024, the company's expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 0.3%, 3.7%, 6.9%, and -6.3%, respectively, showing improvements compared to previous quarters [11][12]. - The company is increasing its inventory levels, reflecting a positive demand trend, and its fixed assets have increased by 7.9% quarter-on-quarter, indicating the gradual establishment of overseas production capacity [11][12]. Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the CPO and Optical I/O markets, with expectations of continued growth driven by AI and high-performance optical module demand [11][12]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.081 billion yuan, 2.741 billion yuan, and 3.386 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 55%, 32%, and 24%, respectively [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tianfu Communication, reported a strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a positive outlook for its business operations and market position [9][12]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 945 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.11% [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 338 million yuan, up 21.07% year-on-year [12]. - The company's gross profit margin stood at 53.05% [12]. Business Operations - The company is focused on expanding its production capacity in Thailand, with the first phase of the factory operational since mid-2024 and the second phase nearing completion [5][6]. - The company plans to enhance its customer base by leveraging growth opportunities in AI, cloud computing, and the electric vehicle sectors [3]. - The company is actively investing in R&D, with an expenditure of 232 million yuan in 2024, a 62.11% increase from the previous year [5]. Product Development - The company is progressing well with its high-speed optical engine project and is also developing next-generation products [4]. - The company provides a range of solutions for different market applications, including data centers and telecommunications, utilizing various technology platforms [6][11]. Supply Chain and Risk Management - The company reported a foreign exchange gain of 25.95 million yuan in 2024, positively impacting profits, and plans to use hedging strategies to mitigate currency risks [2]. - The impact of international trade disputes on raw material supply is limited, as the proportion of materials sourced from the U.S. is low [8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a comprehensive solution provider in the optical communication industry, focusing on vertical integration to enhance customer value [11]. - Recent analyst ratings indicate a strong buy sentiment, with 16 institutions recommending the stock [12].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 945 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.11% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 338 million, with a year-on-year increase of 21.07% [6] Group 2: Research and Development - The company invested CNY 232 million in R&D in 2024, a 62.11% increase compared to the previous year [4] - The company is focusing on new technology applications and aims to maintain its leading position in niche markets [4] Group 3: Production Capacity and Utilization - The first phase of the Thailand production base was put into operation in mid-2024, with ongoing efforts to increase capacity based on customer demand [4] - The second phase has completed renovations and is expected to finish equipment debugging and sample production soon [4] Group 4: Market Strategy and Customer Engagement - The company is positioning itself as a provider of comprehensive optical device solutions and advanced optoelectronic packaging services [4] - Plans to expand customer base are centered around leveraging opportunities in AI, cloud computing, and the new energy vehicle sectors [4] Group 5: Currency and Supply Chain Management - In 2024, the company recorded a foreign exchange gain of CNY 25.9471 million due to currency fluctuations, positively impacting profits [3] - The company plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate risks associated with currency volatility [3] Group 6: Product Development and Technology - The company is actively developing next-generation products alongside its high-speed optical engine project, which is progressing smoothly [4] - CPO technology is viewed positively, with the company providing diverse solutions for various market applications [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent tariff policies on A-share companies, identifying "quality mispriced stocks" that are less affected by these tariffs and have defensive attributes [2][11]. Group 1: Market Impact - In April 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.7%, and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 3%, marking the highest monthly decline for the same period in nearly three years [3]. - On April 7, both indices experienced declines exceeding 7%, with over 3,000 stocks hitting their daily limit down [3]. - Stocks with significant overseas revenue were particularly affected, with those having over 70% of their revenue from abroad seeing an average decline of over 5% in April [3]. Group 2: Identification of Mispriced Stocks - Over 240 stocks reported limited or no impact from tariffs, with around 140 of these stocks experiencing declines of over 3% in April [7]. - The majority of these "mispriced stocks" are concentrated in the electronics, machinery, and power equipment sectors, with 28, 14, and 13 stocks respectively [7]. - Specific examples of stocks that were significantly affected include 麦格米特 (Maguimi), 淳中科技 (Chunzhong Technology), and 中科蓝讯 (Zhongke Lanyun), which saw declines exceeding 25% [9]. Group 3: Quality Mispriced Stocks - Among the identified "quality mispriced stocks," 17 stocks are noted for their potential growth, with a projected net profit increase of over 20% in 2025 [12]. - Notable stocks include 立讯精密 (Luxshare Precision), 歌尔股份 (GoerTek), and 天孚通信 (Tianfu Communication), which experienced declines of 24.55%, 18.97%, and 18.97% respectively in April [12]. - The article highlights that some of these stocks have consistently paid dividends and show growth potential, with 13 out of 17 stocks expected to see net profit increases of over 30% in 2025 [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the high demand in the optical communication industry, driven by the construction of data centers and the acceleration of AI development [1][2] - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with significant investments aimed at enhancing its product offerings in high-speed optical devices [2] - Revenue and profit projections for 2025-2027 indicate substantial growth, with revenues expected to reach 57 billion, 73 billion, and 91 billion respectively, and net profits projected at 20.9 billion, 26.7 billion, and 33.4 billion [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68%, and a net profit of 1.34 billion, up 84% [1] - The company's gross margin for optical active devices was 46.7%, while for passive devices it was 68.4% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability [1] - R&D expenditure in 2024 was 230 million, a 62% increase from the previous year, indicating a commitment to innovation [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to expand its production capacity and accelerate the launch of new products in 2025 [2] - Revenue growth rates are projected to be 75.1% in 2025, followed by 28.4% in 2026 and 24.4% in 2027 [4] - The company is positioned as a leading supplier in the optical module market, likely to benefit from the rapid upgrade of optical module speeds and the penetration of new products [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][24]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.252 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.74%, and a net profit of 1.344 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 84.07% [9][24]. - The growth in the company's active optical devices is significantly driven by the development of AI, with both active and passive optical products experiencing rapid growth [16][21]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D and innovation, particularly in the field of optical devices, benefiting from a new round of optical communication technology iterations [3][21]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 4.806 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 47.8%, and a net profit of 1.951 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 45.2% [4][29]. - The revenue from passive optical devices is expected to grow at a rate of 33.1% in 2024, while active optical devices are projected to grow by 135.6% [27][29]. Financial Metrics - The overall gross margin for the company is projected to increase by 3.02 percentage points to 57.29% in 2024, with passive optical devices contributing a gross margin of 68.41% and active devices at 46.69% [2][21]. - The company's net asset return (ROE) is expected to reach 33.8% in 2024 and 39.4% in 2025 [4][29]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its global business layout, with a new factory in Thailand expected to be completed by the end of April 2024, which will support ongoing capacity expansion [3][21]. - The company has accumulated several globally leading core process technologies in basic materials through self-research and acquisitions, positioning itself well in the market [3][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 10% quarter-on-quarter, showing an acceleration compared to the previous two quarters. The growth in 2025 is primarily driven by the release of production capacity in Thailand and the ramp-up of the 1.6T optical engine [2][5]. - The gross margin slightly declined, while net profit margin was affected by exchange rate fluctuations. The company's overseas bases enhance delivery capabilities, helping to mitigate tariff impacts [2][5]. - The CPO/OIO market presents significant long-term opportunities, with the company establishing strong ties with major overseas clients, leading to a premium in valuation [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 945 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 338 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8% [5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 53%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 35.8%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year and 6.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to exchange rate fluctuations [2][5]. Market and Production Insights - The company is actively expanding production capacity in the optical passive device sector, with the first phase of the Thailand production line expected to start delivering soon. The second phase is also in preparation for expansion [2][5]. - The shift in focus from 800G products to 1.6T products by major clients is anticipated to accelerate delivery volumes in upcoming quarters, with the company well-prepared for this capacity increase [2][5]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 2.081 billion yuan, 2.741 billion yuan, and 3.386 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 55%, 32%, and 24%. The projected price-to-earnings ratios are 19x, 14x, and 11x [2][5].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 3.25 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 67.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.34 billion, up 84.1% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 860 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%, and a net profit of 370 million, up 26.2% year-on-year [1] - The company benefited from high demand for downstream optical modules, with optical active and passive components achieving revenues of 1.66 billion and 1.58 billion respectively, reflecting increases of 121.9% and 33.2% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company has established its overseas headquarters in Singapore and a production base in Thailand, increasing optical communication component capacity by 4.0% to 5.92 billion units [2] - R&D investment increased by 62.1% to 230 million in 2024, focusing on cutting-edge technologies such as silicon photonics and CPO [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the demand expansion and technological development in both passive and active products in 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company is a key supplier of core components for optical modules, deeply integrated with major downstream manufacturers, and is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of 800G and 1.6T products in 2025 [3] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.04 billion and 2.60 billion respectively, with a projected net profit of 3.12 billion for 2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, supported by dual-line development in passive and active businesses to meet mainstream customer demand for computing power [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing escalation of the global tariff war, particularly between the US and China, which is expected to lead to increased volatility in equity markets and a potential "hard landing" for the US economy [2][10][11] - Domestic economic indicators show a weakening trend, with March data reflecting a 12.4% year-on-year increase in exports, driven by a low base and export rush, while imports fell by 4.3%, indicating persistent domestic demand issues [12][13] - The report emphasizes the need to shift investment strategies from small-cap growth to large-cap value defensive stocks, anticipating this transition to last at least until signs of an earnings bottom emerge [2][10][13] Group 2 - Growth-oriented dividend assets are defined as those sacrificing some dividend yield for potential profit improvement through capital expenditure, which may lead to higher valuations in the market [3][23] - The report identifies two main drivers for growth-oriented dividend assets: the expectation of fiscal policy support and the potential for rising dividend yields, which can help avoid static valuation traps [3][23][26] - A comprehensive screening model for growth-oriented dividend assets has been developed, focusing on five key factors: relative dividend yield advantage, stable dividend payout ratio, ample operating cash flow, stable or improving ROE, and increasing capital expenditure [3][35][34] Group 3 - The report suggests a differentiated approach to sector allocation, recommending a reduction in exposure to AI sectors with low penetration rates, while increasing allocation to structural technology growth areas and growth-oriented dividend assets [4][23] - Specific sectors highlighted for increased allocation include telecommunications, infrastructure, and consumer sectors, which are expected to benefit from fiscal expansion and capital expenditure [4][23][24] - The report also notes that gold stocks and innovative pharmaceuticals are positioned to benefit from rising gold prices and improving profit margins, respectively [4][23]

华西证券（002926）发布研报称，在全球生成式人工智能高速发展驱动下，数据量与算力需求激增推动 光模块加速向800G/1.6T升级。国内头部光模块厂商2024年及2025Q1财报显示收入及净利润持续高增， 印证行业高景气。尽管市场担忧DeepSeek等技术降低算力成本可能抑制需求，但短期算力芯片升级、 大模型竞赛加剧供需紧张，中长期AI应用(如具身智能)仍处爆发初期，支撑光模块长期增长逻辑。叠加 地缘政治催化国产算力建设提速，行业具备业绩支撑与估值修复空间。 华西证券主要观点如下： 光模块业绩高速增长，国内云厂商算力投资加速 伴随生成式人工智能快速发展，全球数据总量与算力规模保持着高速增长态势，光模块市场向 800G/1.6T演进。 该行认为，算力需求在过去两年受益于算力芯片催生一波跳跃式需求增长，而短期供应紧缺、大厂大模 型"军备"竞赛加剧供需紧缺。中长期看AI应用仍处于极早期，包括具身智能在内的众多AI+应用场景仍 有巨大空间。作为算力集群拓展的基础组件，光模块行业仍然具备高增长能力。 短期内，考虑全球地缘政治冲突、关税贸易冲突等一系列不确定性影响下，国产算力建设加速对国内市 场需求有望提振。 光模块作 ...