Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Wens Foodstuff Group forecasts a net profit of 5-5.5 billion yuan for 2025, aligning with market expectations, but represents a decline of 40%-46% due to falling prices of livestock and poultry [1] Group 1: Financial Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is set at 5-5.5 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 40%-46% compared to previous figures, primarily driven by a drop in livestock prices [1] - For Q4 2025, the estimated net profit ranges from -260 million yuan to +250 million yuan, indicating pressure on quarterly performance mainly due to low pig prices [1] Group 2: Operational Strategy - Wens Foodstuff Group has shifted its strategic focus from "scale growth" to "quality enhancement," aiming for a new positioning centered on "growth, technology, sustainability, responsibility, and high quality" [1] - The company is enhancing its supporting businesses and building an ecological industry chain, promoting a new paradigm in the breeding industry through initiatives that support farmers and optimize shareholder returns [1] Group 3: Market Valuation - The target price for Wens Foodstuff Group is maintained at 25 yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 32/22 times for 2026/2027, indicating a potential upside of 47% [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The forecast for the US GDP growth in 2026 has been raised to 2.6%, up from a previous estimate of 2.3%, driven by factors including the upcoming midterm elections and potential policy changes from the Trump administration [2][3] - The report highlights a potential rebound in inflation in the second half of 2026, despite a slight downward adjustment in inflation predictions due to various economic factors [2][3] - Structural issues in the US economy, such as asset price inflation and income inequality, are expected to worsen, indicating a "K-shaped" recovery [2][3] Group 2: Real Estate Policies - The Trump administration has announced a series of real estate policies aimed at stimulating demand, including a $200 billion mortgage-backed securities purchase plan and restrictions on large institutional investors in the single-family housing market [3][4] - These measures are expected to provide marginal support to the real estate market but may not effectively address housing affordability issues [3][4] Group 3: Employment Data - In December, the US added 50,000 non-farm jobs, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 70,000, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.4% [5] - The labor participation rate declined to 62.4%, while hourly wage growth showed a slight increase, indicating a mixed employment landscape [5] Group 4: Sector Performance - The report suggests that the A-share market is experiencing a "spring rally," with a focus on sectors such as gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals for potential investment opportunities [7] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a combination of factors, including improved liquidity and upward revisions in profit expectations [8] Group 5: REITs Market - Recent policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and stock exchanges are expected to enhance the REITs market, promoting high-quality development amid OCI disturbances [22] - The report indicates that the REITs market may experience improved sentiment and quality as it enters a new phase of development [22] Group 6: Semiconductor Industry - The report emphasizes the growing demand for cleanroom facilities in the semiconductor industry, driven by increased capital expenditure from global tech giants [23] - The cleanroom engineering services sector is expected to see a rise in order rates, benefiting from the demand for advanced manufacturing processes [23]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The sentiment in the pork market has significantly improved, with a notable reduction in losses for pig farming. The average price of live pigs is currently 12.55 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a steady adjustment in pig production capacity [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a nationwide inspection of winter crop seeds to ensure safety for the upcoming spring and summer planting seasons. This includes a focus on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables. The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency rates for critical varieties [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture is conducting inspections to ensure seed quality and compliance, which is crucial for agricultural production safety. The emphasis on genetically modified technology is expected to revolutionize yield improvements, with companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development likely to benefit [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.55 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in slaughter volume by 17.4% year-on-year. The market sentiment has improved significantly, with a reduction in losses for self-bred and purchased pig farming, indicating a potential for recovery in the sector. Recommended stocks include companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2353.51 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.21 USD/bushel, up 2.11% [26][27] - Wheat: The domestic average price is 2513.62 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.82 USD/bushel, down 0.13% [29][31] - Soybeans: The domestic average price is 4048.42 CNY/ton, up 0.63% week-on-week. The international price is 405.95 USD/ton, up 0.74% [39][43] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 15530.00 CNY/ton, up 0.84% week-on-week [45][49] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.64 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.76%. The prices for chicken feed and egg-laying hen feed remain stable [52][54]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the development of a modern agricultural operating system in Guiyang and Gui'an, focusing on the integration of leading enterprises, cooperatives, family farms, and large-scale farming households to drive rural revitalization and increase farmers' income [2][3][5]. Group 1: Leading Enterprises - Leading enterprises are identified as the "locomotive" of modern agricultural development, with successful examples such as the collaboration between a modern ecological breeding area and Wens Foodstuff Group, achieving a chicken survival rate of over 98% and increasing annual income for farmers by over 110,000 yuan [3]. - Gui'an has introduced four leading enterprises, including Wens and Dekang, and aims for a chicken production capacity of 30 million birds and a production value of 1.22 billion yuan by 2024, maintaining the highest output in the province [5]. - The local government is actively supporting the growth of leading enterprises through financial products like "Shuangnong Direct Loan," with 62 enterprises receiving loans totaling 120 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Cooperatives - Cooperatives serve as a crucial link between farmers and markets, with successful models like the cooperative in Wengjing Village, which integrates pig farming and vegetable planting, benefiting local villagers through land transfer and collective dividends [6]. - The government is enhancing cooperative development by providing project support and facilitating access to funding, leading to the establishment of 73 new professional cooperatives by 2025 [7]. Group 3: Family Farms - Family farms are highlighted as key units for specialized operations and income generation, with examples like Zhang Ya's family farm producing 20,000 kg of fruit annually, generating a total output value of 400,000 yuan [8]. - The local government encourages the establishment of family farms by optimizing the business environment, resulting in the addition of 248 new family farms by 2025 [11]. Group 4: Large-scale Farming Households - Large-scale farming households are strengthening the agricultural foundation, with examples of innovative practices in mushroom cultivation and earthworm farming, contributing to local employment and ecological sustainability [12][14]. - Gui'an is promoting the expansion of large-scale farming households, with plans to cultivate 2,265 households by 2025, supported by financial policies and project assistance [14]. Group 5: Future Directions - Guiyang and Gui'an will continue to focus on the collaborative development of leading enterprises, cooperatives, family farms, and large-scale farming households, aiming to create a competitive agricultural ecosystem with a target of "ten chains, hundred parks, billion-level, and ten thousand entities" [15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it implies a cautious outlook on certain segments, particularly in pig farming and poultry [62]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.98% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to major indices like the Shanghai Composite [12][14]. - In the pig farming sector, prices are currently stabilizing at a low level, with expectations of further declines due to weak supply and demand dynamics [21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing pressure on prices, particularly for white feather chickens, while yellow feather chickens are showing signs of recovery due to improved demand [32]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy prices are stabilizing after a period of decline [40]. - The planting sector is facing tight supply and demand conditions, with potential price increases for corn and soybeans anticipated due to external uncertainties and domestic policy support [43][44]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with certain seafood prices trending upwards [51]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of January 9, the national average price for commodity pigs is 12.63 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.36%. The average weight of pigs at market is 128.54 kg, showing a slight decrease [20][21]. - The sector is expected to face further price declines due to weak demand and supply conditions, with a focus on reducing production capacity amid ongoing losses [21][22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.64 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.04%. The profitability of poultry farming is under pressure, but there are signs of improvement for yellow feather chickens due to better demand [30][32]. Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong is 26.58 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but up 14.62% year-on-year. The beef market is expected to strengthen as it enters the peak consumption season [40]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.03 yuan/kg, while the industry is still facing significant financial pressure [40]. Planting Sector - Domestic corn prices are at 2250 yuan/ton, with expectations of tight supply conditions leading to potential price increases. The soybean market is also showing upward trends [43][44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing at a low point, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in crop yields [44]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices are stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices are also stable, with notable increases in certain seafood products [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a structural shortage in the pig market, with expectations for a price turning point in Q2 2026 due to ongoing capacity reduction and favorable policies [3][9] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector, driven by policy and market forces [3][9] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, anticipating a price recovery in Q2 2026, with suggested stocks including Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3] - It also suggests looking at the animal health sector, which may benefit from profit transmission down the supply chain, with recommended stocks including Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the report notes a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, highlighting investment opportunities in large-scale planting, with suggested stocks including Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated) and Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated) [3] - The pet food sector is also highlighted, with growth driven by increasing domestic brand recognition and overseas market expansion, recommending stocks such as Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated) and Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report indicates that December saw a continued increase in pig output, with 13 listed pig companies collectively reporting an output of 18.72 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 7.11% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [13] - The average selling price for pigs in December remained low, with a range from 10.66 yuan/kg to 12.54 yuan/kg, and an overall average around 11.5 yuan/kg [15] - The average weight of pigs sold in December was 124.85 kg, reflecting a decrease of 1.8 kg from the previous month, indicating a trend of accelerated inventory reduction [15][16] Market Trends - The report notes that the natural rubber market is experiencing price strength, with futures prices reaching 16,030 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.72% [47] - The report also highlights a stable upward trend in grain prices, with corn and wheat prices showing slight declines while soybean meal prices have increased [37]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry in China is experiencing a prolonged period of low prices and losses due to supply-demand imbalances, with a shift towards fine-tuned operations expected in the future [2][6]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The industry is currently facing losses primarily due to high production capacity, with the number of breeding sows remaining elevated at 39.9 million as of October 2025, which is 102.3% of the normal level [4]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.25 yuan/kg as of December 28, 2025, still below the breakeven cost of 14 yuan/kg [2]. Price Trends and Profitability - The average price of live pigs for the entire year of 2025 is projected to be between 13.9 and 14 yuan/kg, with significant price drops observed from August onwards [3]. - By December 26, 2025, the losses for self-breeding and purchased pig farming were reported at -130 yuan/head and -163 yuan/head, respectively [3]. Production Capacity and Adjustments - The number of breeding sows has decreased by approximately 400,000 from a peak of 4.39 million in December 2022, but the current level remains high [4]. - Despite efforts to reduce production capacity, the pace of adjustment has been slow, with major companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Zhengbang Technology already meeting their annual output targets by November 2025 [5]. Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with some achieving significant reductions in production costs, such as Muyuan Foods at 11.3 yuan/kg and Wens Foodstuffs at 12.2-12.4 yuan/kg [8]. - The industry consensus indicates that relying solely on scale is no longer sufficient for profit growth, leading to a transition towards a micro-profit era [9]. Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The industry is expected to undergo a transformation towards sustainable development, emphasizing collaboration across the supply chain, including feed production, breeding, and processing [10]. - The involvement of large agricultural groups and cross-industry capital is anticipated to intensify competition and capacity expansion in the short term, while promoting modernization and stability in the long term [10].

证券日报网讯1月9日，温氏股份（300498）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将继续聚焦主营业 务，全力做好提升业绩与内在价值工作，在高质量发展的基础上，更好地回馈广大投资者。 ...

Economic News - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the export control of dual-use items to Japan, stating that China aims to prevent Japan's militarization and nuclear ambitions through legal measures [1] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the U.S. for seizing a Russian-flagged oil tanker, emphasizing that such actions violate international law [1] - The Ministry of Commerce commented on Meta's acquisition of Manus, indicating that the government supports lawful international business operations [1] - The Ministry of Commerce discussed South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's visit to China, highlighting agreements to deepen economic cooperation [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation held discussions with the photovoltaic industry association and leading companies to prevent market manipulation [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology warned against irrational competition in the lithium battery industry [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue a 1-year fixed-rate bond totaling 135 billion yuan and a 30-year bond totaling 32 billion yuan [1] Company Insights - Sinopec announced a restructuring with China Aviation Oil Group to enhance supply chain efficiency and promote sustainable aviation fuel development [4] - Beifang Changlong plans to acquire 51% of Shunyi Technology, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [4] - Quanxin Co. intends to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 312 million yuan for aviation communication projects and working capital [4] - Yingqu Technology forecasts a net profit of 540 million to 660 million yuan for 2025, driven by stable growth in various business segments [4] - Wens Foodstuff Group expects a net profit of 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, a decline attributed to lower sales prices of pigs and chickens [4] Industry Analysis - The securities industry is expected to see improved performance in 2026 due to supportive policies and accelerated consolidation [6][7] - The average daily trading volume has increased since early 2025, indicating improved market activity [7] - Regulatory support for technology growth companies has led to increased IPO and financing activity, benefiting brokerage revenues [8] - The self-operated investment segment is becoming crucial for brokerage firms' profitability, with a focus on maintaining stability amid market volatility [9] - The securities industry is likely to experience further consolidation, with notable mergers already occurring among leading firms [11]

Core Viewpoint - The pig price in December 2025 reached a new low, with the industry experiencing a prolonged period of price inversion, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The December 2025 pig sales data revealed that the expected peak season did not materialize, with average sales prices dropping over 25% year-on-year, ranging between 11 CNY/kg and 12 CNY/kg [2]. - Major companies like Muyuan Foods reported a 14.75% decrease in sales volume to 6.98 million pigs in December, resulting in a 36.06% decline in sales revenue to 9.667 billion CNY [2]. - Some companies, such as Zhengbang Technology, saw significant increases in sales volume, with a 73.26% rise to 1.0286 million pigs and a 25.75% increase in revenue to 914 million CNY [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The pig price exhibited a fluctuating trend in December, with a brief recovery mid-month due to seasonal demand, but ultimately ended with a slight month-on-month decline [3]. - The average price of white strip pork decreased by 26.21% year-on-year, despite a 15.22% increase in daily slaughter volume, indicating persistent downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 3: Capacity Reduction - The industry is gradually initiating capacity reduction, but the pace remains slow, with many companies still maintaining high levels of breeding sows [4]. - As of December 2025, Muyuan Foods reported a breeding sow inventory of 3.232 million heads, reflecting a decrease, but overall industry capacity reduction is not yet substantial [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current high levels of breeding sow inventory will continue to exert pressure on supply, limiting price recovery potential [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the effects of capacity reduction will become evident in the second half of 2026, with the first half expected to remain in a downward price cycle [5].