养殖巨头温氏股份（300498）（300498.SZ）抵御行业周期波动依旧乏力。 2025年度，温氏股份经营业绩再度承压。近日，温氏股份发布2025年度业绩预告，公司预计全年实现归 母净利润50亿元—55亿元，较上年同期下降40.73%—46.12%；预计实现扣非净利润48亿元—53亿元， 较上年同期下降44.64%—49.86%。 2025年前三季度，温氏股份的经营业绩就表现出下滑趋势，当期营业收入约为758亿元，与上年同期基 本持平，但归母净利润下降约18%，为52.56亿元。 对比发现，业绩大滑坡出现在第四季度，如果最终经审计的归母净利润为预计数的下限，那么，2025年 第四季度，公司会出现亏损。 如果温氏股份最终实现的归母净利润为预计数的下限，那么，公司第四季度将出现亏损。 温氏股份的产品销量是增长的。2025年，公司销售生猪4047.69万头、肉鸡13.03亿只，分别较上年同期 增加逾千万头、上亿只。 增量不增利，核心因素是产品销售价格下降。2025年，公司的生猪和肉鸡销售价格同比均出现了下降。 过去一年，温氏股份股价表现萎靡，截至1月12日市值为1134亿元，较"猪茅"牧原股份（002714）少 ...

近日，温氏股份披露了2025年度业绩预告，预计公司2025年归母净利润为50亿—55亿元，比上年同期下 降40.73%—46.12%；扣非净利润为48亿—53亿元，比上年同期下降44.64%—49.86%。对于业绩预减的 原因，温氏股份表示，主要受畜禽产品价格整体下行影响，公司养殖业务利润同比下降。 从经营数据来看，2025年，温氏股份销售生猪4047.69万头（其中毛猪和鲜品3544.67万头，仔猪503.02 万头），远超其年初定下的3300万—3500万头全年销售目标，但毛猪销售均价同比下降17.95%至13.71 元/公斤，由于生猪销售价格同比出现较大幅度下降，公司生猪养殖业务利润同比下降。肉鸡业务同样 呈现"量增价跌"态势，温氏股份2025年销售肉鸡13.03亿只（含毛鸡、鲜品和熟食），数量较上年的 12.08亿只有所增长，但毛鸡销售均价为11.78元/公斤，同比下降9.8%，由于毛鸡销售价格同比下跌，公 司肉鸡养殖业务利润同比下降。 温氏股份创立于1983年，凭借创始人温北英首创的"公司+农户"模式，公司实现快速扩张，现已发展成 一家以畜禽养殖为主业、配套相关业务的跨地区现代农牧企业集团，并于20 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry is expected to see a peak in hog slaughtering in late January, with prices anticipated to slightly rise from the bottom before the Lunar New Year. In December 2025, the national average selling price of hogs was 11.59 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.23% [5][15] - The December hog slaughter volume was 5.93 million heads, which is a month-on-month increase of 18.68% and a year-on-year increase of 3.50% [15] - The overall supply pressure is expected to ease due to increased slaughtering in late December, leading to a slight price increase for hogs, although the upward potential remains limited [5][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry anticipates a peak in hog slaughtering in late January, with prices expected to rise slightly from the bottom before the Lunar New Year. The December 2025 national average selling price of hogs was 11.59 yuan/kg, down 0.84% month-on-month and down 26.23% year-on-year [5][15] - The December hog slaughter volume was 5.93 million heads, up 18.68% month-on-month and 3.50% year-on-year [15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of large hogs is expected to remain ample, with the proportion of hogs over 150 kg slightly higher than the same period in 2024. As of January 1, 2026, the proportion of hogs over 150 kg was 6.76%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.25 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.03 percentage points [6][18] - The demand recovery, combined with reduced weight slaughtering, has led to an increase in the price difference for hogs. However, high frozen product inventory levels may suppress future hog prices, with the national frozen product inventory rate at 19.89%, up 4.93 percentage points year-on-year [21][23] Financial Performance of Listed Companies - In December 2025, 12 listed hog farming companies collectively slaughtered 17.6075 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 8.86%. The individual slaughter volumes varied significantly among companies, with some experiencing substantial growth while others faced declines [29][30] - The average selling prices of major listed hog companies in December showed a month-on-month decline, with prices ranging from 10.66 to 12.21 yuan/kg, reflecting various percentage changes [36][37]

近日，温氏股份披露了2025年度业绩预告，预计公司2025年归母净利润为50亿—55亿元，比上年同期下 降40.73%—46.12%；扣非净利润为48亿—53亿元，比上年同期下降44.64%—49.86%。对于业绩预减的 原因，温氏股份表示，主要受畜禽产品价格整体下行影响，公司养殖业务利润同比下降。 当前中国生猪产业正处于第六轮"猪周期"，申万宏源证券研报显示，本轮猪周期自2024年三季度见顶后 开始下行，2025年全年猪价震荡向下，猪价自年初的15—16元/公斤跌至四季度的11—12元/公斤左右。 展望后市，卓创资讯生猪分析师邹莹吉表示，"目前生猪价格虽较2025年最低点有所回暖，但从长周期 看仍处于历史底部。卓创资讯监测196家样本企业生猪存栏量显示，截至2025年12月底，生猪存栏量环 比微增，未来生猪供应或仍较充裕。春节前需求或季节性提升，但节前养殖端或有减重减栏动作，供应 或充裕，猪价可能涨幅有限。从能繁母猪存栏量看，2026年上半年生猪价格或仍处较低位，下半年或震 荡偏强，转折点可能出现在二季度末或三季度初"。 在盘古智库高级研究员江瀚看来，温氏股份应深化"猪鸡产业对冲"策略，利用周期错配平滑收益 ...

近日，温氏股份披露了2025年度业绩预告，预计公司2025年归母净利润为50亿—55亿元，比上年同期下降40.73%—46.12%；扣非净利润为48亿—53亿元， 比上年同期下降44.64%—49.86%。对于业绩预减的原因，温氏股份表示，主要受畜禽产品价格整体下行影响，公司养殖业务利润同比下降。 从经营数据来看，2025年，温氏股份销售生猪4047.69万头（其中毛猪和鲜品3544.67万头，仔猪503.02万头），远超其年初定下的3300万—3500万头全年销 售目标，但毛猪销售均价同比下降17.95%至13.71元/公斤，由于生猪销售价格同比出现较大幅度下降，公司生猪养殖业务利润同比下降。肉鸡业务同样呈 现"量增价跌"态势，温氏股份2025年销售肉鸡13.03亿只（含毛鸡、鲜品和熟食），数量较上年的12.08亿只有所增长，但毛鸡销售均价为11.78元/公斤，同比 下降9.8%，由于毛鸡销售价格同比下跌，公司肉鸡养殖业务利润同比下降。 而面对持续的价格下行压力，成本控制成为企业的关键着力点。据温氏股份透露，公司2025年11月肉猪养殖综合成本降至6元/斤，初步预计2026年全年肉猪 养殖平均综合成本在5. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [9][66]. Core Insights - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, presenting opportunities at the bottom of the market. Regulatory measures are being reinforced to control pig prices, with expectations of a gradual adjustment rather than aggressive interventions. The focus is on low-cost performance and dividend increases for value reassessment, particularly for leading companies like Muyuan Foods and WH Group [1][14]. - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in fundamentals, with historical highs in the number of breeding stock updates. The price dynamics are currently low, but there is potential for marginal changes in the cycle. Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Lihua Agricultural [2][28]. - The animal health sector is advancing with the clinical trials of the African swine fever subunit vaccine, which has received approval for clinical trials. The likelihood of domestic vaccine market entry is increasing, with recommended companies including BioFeng and Kexin Biological [3][6]. - The pet industry continues to grow rapidly, with significant improvements in profitability. Recommended companies in the pet food sector include GuaiBao Pet and ZhongChong Co., while in the pet medical sector, RuiPu Biological is highlighted [9][60]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The swine industry is experiencing a capacity reduction phase, with regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing prices. The average price of pigs in December 2025 was 11.59 CNY/kg, with a slight month-on-month decrease. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [13][14]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and WH Group, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [1][14]. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is seeing a potential improvement in fundamentals, with breeding stock updates reaching historical highs. The average price for broiler chickens was 3.9 CNY/jin, with a slight increase [26][28]. - Recommended companies are Shennong Development and Lihua Agricultural [2][28]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is focused on the progress of the African swine fever vaccine trials, with the first round of trials proceeding as planned. The second round is set to begin by the end of March 2026 [3][6]. - Companies to watch include BioFeng, Kexin Biological, and RuiPu Biological [6]. Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The average annual spending per pet dog is 2,961 CNY, while for cats, it is 2,020 CNY [59][60]. - Recommended companies include GuaiBao Pet, ZhongChong Co., and Peidi Co. in the pet food sector, and RuiPu Biological in the pet medical sector [9][60]. Feed Industry - The feed industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with the price of feed for fattening pigs at 3.34 CNY/kg, showing a month-on-month increase [47][48]. - Recommended companies include Haida Group and HeFeng Co. [48]. Planting Industry - Grain prices have increased year-on-year, with corn prices at 2,250 CNY/ton, showing a 10.5% increase compared to the previous year [41][46]. - Companies to focus on include SuKan Agricultural Development, LongPing High-Tech, and DengHai Seeds [7][46].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in pig prices, which are stabilizing and maintaining strength. The focus is also on the pet industry following the release of a white paper on the sector [1][3]. - The report suggests that the supply of pigs remains ample in the first half of 2026, with a prolonged bottoming period expected for the industry cycle. The logic for a rebound in 2026 remains intact, presenting potential investment opportunities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of January 11, the national average price for external three yuan pigs is 12.70 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.1%. The supply of large pigs is tight, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased, leading to a temporary tightening of the market [3]. - The price of weaned piglets has also risen, reaching 251 yuan/head, nearing industry cost levels. The report notes that the production capacity reduction has slowed down, with a slight increase in the number of breeding sows [3][4]. Pet Industry - The 2026 China Pet Industry White Paper indicates that the urban pet consumption market reached 312.6 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 4.1% year-on-year. The dog market accounted for 160.6 billion yuan, while the cat market reached 152.0 billion yuan [3]. - The average annual spending per pet owner has shown a slight increase, with dog owners spending an average of 3,006 yuan and cat owners spending 2,085 yuan [3]. Chicken Farming - The average price for white feather broiler chicks has decreased to 3.15 yuan/chick, a week-on-week decline of 6.5%. Despite this, the supply of broilers remains tight, with the average price for broiler chickens at 3.79 yuan/kg [3]. - The report emphasizes that the theme of abundant supply in the white feather chicken market will continue into 2025-2026, and it suggests focusing on leading companies in the sector [3].

Group 1 - The aquaculture sector saw a slight increase of 0.04% on January 12, with Fucheng Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up by 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up by 1.75% [1] - Fucheng Co. had a closing price of 6.35, with a significant increase of 10.05%, and a trading volume of 370,100 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 227 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The aquaculture sector experienced a net outflow of 233 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 250 million yuan [2] - The trading data indicates that major stocks like Wens Foodstuff Group and Muyuan Foods had slight declines in their stock prices, with Wens closing at 17.05, down by 0.41% [2] - Fucheng Co. reported a net outflow of 50.99 million yuan from main funds, despite its overall price increase [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in pig prices, which are stabilizing and maintaining strength. The focus is on the release of the pet industry white paper [1][4]. - The report suggests that the pig farming sector is experiencing a clear bottoming trend, with a focus on the progress of capacity reduction. The supply fundamentals for the first half of 2026 remain unchanged, indicating a prolonged bottoming period for the cycle [4]. - The pet industry is expected to see a valuation switch as it undergoes adjustments, with significant data from the 2026 China Pet Industry White Paper being released [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index increased by 1.0%, while the CSI 300 rose by 2.8%. The top five gainers included Dahu Co. (17.8%), Zhongshui Fishery (16.1%), and Biological Co. (15.5%) [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the reduction of pig production capacity and suggests positioning in leading pig farming companies [4]. Pig Farming - As of January 11, the average selling price of external three yuan pigs was 12.70 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.1%. The supply of large pigs is tight, and the price has rebounded to near the breakeven point for farming [4][3]. - The report indicates that the price of weaned piglets has also increased, reaching 251 yuan/head, close to the industry cost level [4][3]. Pet Industry - The 2025 urban pet (dog and cat) consumption market size reached 312.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%. The dog market size was 160.6 billion yuan, growing by 3.2%, while the cat market size was 152.0 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% [4][3]. - The average annual spending per pet owner has shown a slight upward trend, with dog owners spending an average of 3,006 yuan and cat owners spending 2,085 yuan [4][3]. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather broiler chicks has decreased, with an average selling price of 3.15 yuan/chick, down 6.5% week-on-week. The supply of broilers remains tight, with the average selling price of white feather broilers at 3.79 yuan/kg [4][3]. - The report suggests that the theme of abundant supply in white feather broilers will continue into 2025-2026, with a focus on leading companies and long-term value [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Wens Foodstuff Group forecasts a net profit of 5-5.5 billion yuan for 2025, aligning with market expectations, but represents a decline of 40%-46% due to falling prices of livestock and poultry [1] Group 1: Financial Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is set at 5-5.5 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 40%-46% compared to previous figures, primarily driven by a drop in livestock prices [1] - For Q4 2025, the estimated net profit ranges from -260 million yuan to +250 million yuan, indicating pressure on quarterly performance mainly due to low pig prices [1] Group 2: Operational Strategy - Wens Foodstuff Group has shifted its strategic focus from "scale growth" to "quality enhancement," aiming for a new positioning centered on "growth, technology, sustainability, responsibility, and high quality" [1] - The company is enhancing its supporting businesses and building an ecological industry chain, promoting a new paradigm in the breeding industry through initiatives that support farmers and optimize shareholder returns [1] Group 3: Market Valuation - The target price for Wens Foodstuff Group is maintained at 25 yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 32/22 times for 2026/2027, indicating a potential upside of 47% [1]