证券研究报告·行业点评报告·计算机 计算机行业点评报告 云涨价已现，关注 AI Agent 需求带动下的云 投资机会 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示： Agent 落地进展不及预期；产能供应问题缓解。 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券分析师 王紫敬 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王世杰 执业证书：S0600523080004 wangshijie@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% 29% 34% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《CPU 涨价，CPU 有望在 Agent 时代 迎来大周期》 2026-02-02 《商业航天为何会成为 2026 年的主 线？》 2026-01-28 ◼ 海外大厂云已经开始涨价。谷歌云涨价。1 月 27 日，谷歌云正式官宣涨 价，自 2026 年 5 月 1 日起，对 Google Cloud、 ...

IT之家 2 月 2 日消息，据彭博社报道，为了吸引更多海外投资进入数字基础设施领域，印度拟为在当地 提供全球数据中心服务的外国企业送出长达 20 年的税收优惠。 亚马逊和微软近期也加码印度市场，两家公司合计新增投资 520 亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 3621.27 亿元人民币），进一步突显印度正成为人工智能、云服务和在线零售的重要增长引擎。 与此同时，印度政府还准备推出一项新规则：本地企业如果为关联的海外公司提供数据中心服务，可以 按照 15% 的"安全港"利润率执行，从而简化转让定价管理。这将帮助国内业务单位更方便地支持面向 印度以外市场的全球云服务。 当地时间 2 月 1 日，印度财政部长尼尔玛拉 · 西塔拉曼在联邦预算案中宣布，外国公司如果在印度运营 数据中心并向海外市场输出服务，那么其海外业务的税收将得到豁免，政策一直持续到 2047 年。不 过，这项免税只针对"对外服务"，如果通过本地子公司向印度国内用户提供服务，仍然需要缴税。 近年来，印度已经陆续推出多项扶持政策，包括给予数据中心"基础设施"地位，以及在多个邦放宽土地 使用限制。最新措施进一步显示，新德里希望借助数字经济和能源供给能力的提 ...

Core Insights - Omdia's report predicts that by 2029, retailers will control 47% of the North American TV operating system (OS) market share, up from 27% in 2025, indicating a shift towards retail media advertising driven by e-commerce rather than traditional TV sales [1] - The global TV OS market is evolving into three distinct segments, with localized Android ecosystems in China maintaining a dominant 96% market share, while Google TV leads in other regions with a 40% share, which is expected to be gradually divided among competitors Vidaa, Titan, and TiVo [1] Group 1 - By 2027, North America is expected to reach a turning point, with Walmart's CastOS devices projected to ship 14 million units, benefiting from Walmart's acquisition of Vizio and the expansion of its CastOS platform [4] - Following the acquisition, Walmart is expected to increase Vizio's shipments from 4.8 million units in 2024 to 6.6 million units in 2025, a growth of 37.5%, while Amazon's FireTV shipments are projected to rise from 6.1 million units in 2024 to 6.8 million units in 2025, an increase of 11.5% [4] - By 2029, Walmart's CastOS devices are expected to reach 14.8 million units, while Amazon's FireTV is projected to reach 8.8 million units, resulting in a total shipment of 23.6 million units and a market size of 50 million units [4] Group 2 - At the 2026 CES, VIDAA OS will undergo significant changes, rebranding to V Home OS to reflect its broader role beyond just television, and announcing a partnership with Microsoft to integrate Copilot generative AI features into the platform [4] - Google has integrated Gemini AI into Google TV, launching interactive shoppable video features at CES, which aim to seamlessly connect viewing and purchasing experiences through AI recognition of products on screen [4] - The emphasis on "conversational shopping" allows users to inquire about products while watching, with the TV identifying brands and providing options to add items to a shopping cart, highlighting the growing importance of shopping functionalities across multiple TV OS platforms [4]

Accessible version Global Memory Tech Weekly theme: memory industry model update, softening DRAM spot, LGE upside Price Objective Change Global DRAM/NAND sales forecasts raised by 25% We updated our global memory+HBM industry model following Samsung Electronics' and SK Hynix's 4Q25 earnings results. Key changes to our 2026 estimates vs earlier include: 1) 20%+ higher ASPs (for both DRAM and NAND); 2) slightly higher bit growth; 3) capex increase, largely driven by HBM and infrastructure investments (shell f ...

【中信科技产业】海外AI叙事或重回乐观情形，重视海外算力链新一轮上涨机遇！ 核心判断 近期海外推理与训练算力需求同步走强，亚马逊云、谷歌云相继涨价，台积电上修Capex。 尽管当前AI应用大规模商业化能见度仍有限，但在模型与应用密集催化下，未来3–6个月海外算力需求有望进一步 上行，算力"泡沫论"担忧或阶段性缓解，产业链有望迎来新一轮修复。 推理侧：Agent落地 【中信科技产业】海外AI叙事或重回乐观情形，重视海外算力链新一轮上涨机遇！ 核心判断 近期海外推理与训练算力需求同步走强，亚马逊云、谷歌云相继涨价，台积电上修Capex。 尽管当前AI应用大规模商业化能见度仍有限，但在模型与应用密集催化下，未来3–6个月海外算力需求有望进一步 上行，算力"泡沫论"担忧或阶段性缓解，产业链有望迎来新一轮修复。 推理侧：Agent落地抬升推理算力消耗 MoltBot等新一代Agent显著提升对电脑操作与复杂任务的处理能力，带来更高推理算力消耗。 Anthropic持续推出Claude Code、Agent Skills等产品，拓展Agent应用场景。 OpenRouter数据显示，2026年1月初以来Token调用量持 ...

亚马逊（AMZN）业绩前瞻 时间：2 月 5 日（周四）；隐含波动：6% 核心关键绩效指标（KPI）：亚马逊云服务（AWS） 我们认为买方对第四季度 AWS 的增长预期可能在 22% 以上（与第三方预测一致）。 与投资者交流后发现，市场对亚马逊仍存在一些怀疑情绪：亚马逊在人工智能领域落后，没有前沿实验室， 在 Trainium芯片方面处于劣势。 < 亚马逊（AMZN）业绩前瞻 时间：2 月 5 日（周四）；隐含波动：6% 核心关键绩效指标（KPI）：亚马逊云服务（AWS） 我们认为买方对第四季度 AWS 的增长预期可能在 22% 以上（与第三方预测一致）。 与投资者交流后发现，市场对亚马逊仍存在一些怀疑情绪：亚马逊在人工智能领域落后，没有前沿实验室， 在 Trainium芯片方面处于劣势。 边际改善：调查显示，Bedrock 和人工智能相关举措的反馈越来越好，市场对 Nova 可能带来的成果抱有期待。 我们认为，随着智能代理人工智能的崛起，这种负面叙事将有所改善： 关于 AWS 是否适合智能代理人工智能的讨论 有观点指出："我并非专家，可能对此话题的关注有些滞后，但 AWS 是否是智能代理人工智能的理想云平 ...

Core Insights - Saks Global is terminating its eCommerce partnership with Amazon to focus on its own website and areas with greater growth potential [3][5] - The decision follows Saks' bankruptcy filing, which highlighted financial struggles, particularly in its off-price division [6][7] - Amazon has expressed concerns over its investment in Saks, claiming it is now "presumptively worthless" due to the bankruptcy [7] Company Developments - Saks is closing its Saks on Amazon storefront, citing limited brand participation and a strategic shift towards driving traffic to its own platform [3] - The company is winding down most of its off-price operations, including Saks Off 5th and Neiman Marcus Last Call stores, to concentrate on full-price luxury sales [5][6] - Saks' off-price division is projected to incur a loss of $139 million in fiscal year 2025, indicating significant financial challenges [6] Industry Context - The downsizing of Saks reflects broader structural challenges in the brick-and-mortar retail sector, as physical stores lose competitive status to digital platforms [7] - Analysts predict that the decline in luxury store counts may create opportunities for off-price and beauty retailers to expand in the current market [8]

（原标题：美股迎来高风险窗口期?动荡一周过后 美国1月非农及谷歌、亚马逊财报成市场焦点） 智通财经APP获悉，在投资者消化科技股抛售、贵金属剧烈波动以及美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什为 下一任美联储主席的消息后，美股三大股指上周五全线收跌——道琼斯指数跌0.36%，标普500指数跌 0.43%，纳斯达克综合指数跌0.94%，但全周变化不大——道琼斯指数全周累跌0.4%，标普500指数累涨 0.3%，纳斯达克综合指数累跌0.2%。 美股上周部分最剧烈的股市波动来自科技股。尽管Meta(META.US)和微软(MSFT.US)在最新财报中都宣 布了更高的支出目标，但二者获得的市场反馈截然相反——Meta上周四收涨10.4%、上周累涨8.8%，而 微软上周四收跌近10%、上周累跌7.7%。 Meta 2025年第四季度各项核心指标均显著超越市场预期，支出规模则持续攀升——2026年资本开支预 计将达到1150亿至1350亿美元，远超市场预期的1106亿美元左右，在市场看来，Meta正处于一种"利润 养算力"的良性循环中，通过核心广告业务产生的现金流全速追赶AI浪潮。 未来一周，投资者的注意力将集中在将于周五公布的美国 ...

来源：环球市场播报 与此同时，人工智能（AI）板块前景疑虑浮现，华尔街目光聚焦英伟达。据知情人士透露，英伟达计 划向OpenAI注资1000亿美元的方案已陷入停滞，芯片制造商高管对该交易提出质疑。然而，英伟达 CEO黄仁勋周六向记者表示："我们将投入巨资。我相信OpenAI，他们的工作令人惊叹，是当今最具影 响力的公司之一。"尽管未透露具体金额，但他强调投资规模"巨大"。 本周将迎来财报与就业数据密集发布的关键周。超100家标普500成分股公司，包括亚马逊、Alphabet和 迪士尼等巨头，将陆续公布财报。尽管本财报季整体表现亮眼，但微软等企业财报发布后股价大幅下跌 的案例，也令市场保持警惕。德意志银行策略师指出，当前企业盈利增长势头有望创下四年以来最高水 平，为市场提供一定支撑。 此外，华尔街正密切关注周五早间公布的美国1月非农就业报告。道琼斯调查的经济学家预计，1月新增 就业岗位5.5万个，数据表现将直接影响市场对美联储货币政策的预期。此前，美股已因特朗普提名凯 文·沃什出任美联储主席而承压，主要指数集体走低。若提名获确认，沃什将于今年晚些时候接替杰罗 姆·鲍威尔执掌美联储，政策走向不确定性增加。 周一早 ...

Group 1: Alphabet - Alphabet is expected to report strong earnings, with a focus on its self-driving ride service Waymo, valued at $110 billion, which could attract consumer interest [1] - Ruth Porat, Alphabet's president and chief investment officer, is recognized as a highly effective executive, contributing to the company's positive image and performance [1] - The reversal of a previous antitrust ruling has strengthened Google's market position, allowing it to maintain its dominance in the internet space [1] - The launch of Gemini 3 has positioned Google favorably in the consumer AI market, enhancing its competitive edge against other AI products [1] - YouTube and Google Cloud are highlighted as key growth drivers, with YouTube becoming a leading video platform and Google Cloud gaining traction as a viable alternative to AWS and Azure [1] Group 2: Amazon - Amazon's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to impact market sentiment, with analysts expressing mixed feelings about the company's performance [2] - The company has successfully navigated challenges posed by the pandemic, but Wall Street remains skeptical about its consumer-focused business model [2] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is facing scrutiny regarding its growth rate, but recent improvements may help regain investor confidence [2] - The potential for Amazon to outperform expectations hinges on its ability to deliver a strong earnings report amidst broader economic indicators, such as the upcoming jobs report [2]