Group 1 - Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) shares are currently trading at $106.55, down 2%, amid broader market tariff uncertainty, marking a potential third consecutive loss, although the stock has a 26.8% gain for 2025 and a support level at $100 [1] - The stock is trading near a trendline that has historically led to bullish returns, with shares being above the 200-day moving average for at least eight of the last ten trading days and spending 80% of the past two months above this trendline [2] - Historical data shows that after similar conditions in the last five years, the stock was higher one month later 67% of the time, with an average gain of 6.9% [2] Group 2 - Options trading appears to be an affordable strategy for investors, as indicated by BABA's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 32%, which is in the 8th percentile of its annual range, suggesting low volatility expectations [3] - Alibaba stock has typically outperformed these low volatility expectations over the past year, reflected in its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) rating of 87 out of 100 [3]

家头部企业去年利润总额同比增19.7%。期待短期的利空能让股价再下来一些，多下来一些，再补点仓位。 分享一个阿拉伯寓言：有一天，一个商人的仆人慌张地跑回来，说刚才在集市里看见死神了，求主人借他一匹快马逃去125公里外的撒马拉城避难。商人借 了马，又走到集市里去向死神求情。死神回答：我没有带他走的意思，我刚才只是好奇：这个本该今晚死在撒马拉的人，怎么在这里呢？这个寓言对我触动 挺大，因为笔者在投资过程中，也经历过"死神的凝视"。而笔者认识的每一个大牛人（你没看错，我没说错，是每一个）都曾经历过净值砍半或以上的煎 熬。美国的巴顿将军说过，"衡量一个人成功的标志，不是看他到达顶峰的高度，而是看他跌入低谷时的反弹力。"面对死神的凝视，你是恐慌？连滚带爬地 骑上快马逃窜？还是有勇气上前搭他的肩膀，问一句"Yo Bro. What'sup?"当你挺过一次极限，眼前的世界连颜色都变了。至少，不那么害怕损失，不那么喜 悦浮盈，不那么恐惧错过。 全网同名：证悟君 上周的关键词是抽水。美国大而美法案通过，一句话总结：劫贫济富了。个人层面看，最大受益者是年收入20-50万美元的家庭。食品援助计划却从54岁提 高到64岁。"吃不饱？ ...

专家解读"外卖大战"20250707 摘要 淘宝闪购通过淘宝 APP 导流，DAU 增加约 1.1 亿，用户平均停留时长 增加 5 分钟，购买频次提高约 1.5 次，显著拉动主站电商 GMV，6 月为 电商带来 5,200 万订单和 86 亿元 GMV。 饿了么在上海市占率超 50%，杭州约 45%，江浙沪优势明显。一线城 市市占率约 40%，二线城市 35%-45%，三四五线城市较低，多在 20%-30%，低线城市市场拓展是重点。 平台计划未来 12 个月投入 500 亿元补贴，主要用于骑手端（约 50 亿）、商户和代理商端（约 50 亿）以及用户端（约 400 亿），用户端 补贴 7-8 月预计花费 160 亿元以稳定日均单量。 淘宝闪购增长最快的品类是奶茶咖啡及快餐，非餐饮类别中，商超、生 鲜水果、服饰百货增长较快，3C 家电、母婴美妆及酒水食品等类别也表 现出显著增长潜力。 2025 年 7 月初饿了么单均亏损 4.6 元，补贴力度加大后亏损增至 6 元。 计划通过调整补贴分摊比例，逐步减少平台承担比例，降低亏损，目标 年底单均亏损降至 2 元多，明年 6 月实现单月盈利。 Q&A 近日淘宝闪购和饿了 ...

Group 1 - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 1.6%, outperforming the three major US stock indices, which are down by up to 0.6% [1] - Notable gains in popular Chinese concept stocks include Bilibili up over 7.8%, Baidu and Yum China up to 5.3%, and Li Auto up over 4.3% [1] - Significant stock movements include Yunmi Technology up 36.14%, XinYong up 30.77%, and Bit Origin up 24.94% [1] Group 2 - Yunmi Technology's current price is $2.26, with a rise of 36.14% and a year-to-date increase of 54.79% [2] - XinYong's current price is $4.25, with a rise of 30.77% and a year-to-date increase of 429.28% [2] - Bit Digital's current price is $3.56, with a rise of 21.12% and a year-to-date increase of 21.53% [2]

7月7日，淘宝闪购、饿了么联合宣布，淘宝闪购日订单数超8000万，日活跃用户超过2亿。与此同时，就在前一天，美团餐饮日订单更是突破了1亿单。短短 一个周末，电商巨头以大额补贴掀起了一场单日破2亿单量的超级外卖大战。不少商家、骑手猝不及防泼天的订单和福利。 电商巨头大打外卖流量战，首拿奶茶品类撬动年轻人。但其更深层的目的，则指向外卖流量对非餐类业务的连带效应。进入暑期出游季，酒旅、订票、即时 零售等业务更是电商兵家必争之地。 日订单! 超4 口:工用版 平台补贴上演"0元购" 持续数年的外卖大战，依然是同样的"配方"。外卖平台出手撒补贴，消费者奶茶"薅"到手软。与此同时，"外卖发优惠券有商家称1小时接300单""外卖大战 有骑手称一晚跑36单挣1000"相关话题在社交平台引发热议。 种种讨论都源于最近的一场补贴大战。7月5日晚间，淘宝、美团两大平台放出了大量且大额的外卖红包券，其中，包括"满25减24""满15减15""满22减18"等 多张无门槛外卖券，甚至部分外卖还能"0元购"。例如淘宝闪购平台推出了"满18减18"的新人专享红包，美团也联合不同奶茶饮品品牌推出了"0元喝奶茶"的 平台福利活动。 而平台的动 ...

进入7月，猝不及防地，外卖"补贴大战"骤然升级。 安静已久的美团，终于在7月5日吹响反击号角，出手发放了大量的免单券和大额优惠券。当日晚间，美团宣布其即时零售日订 单量突破1.2亿单大关。 而就在三天前，7月2日，淘宝闪购宣布将在12个月内直补消费者及商家共500亿元。此举被业界解读为阿里在即时零售领域对美 团发起的"强势防守"，避免重蹈在社区团购等新兴市场被对手甩开的覆辙。 值得注意的是，阿里巴巴在7月3日发布公告，计划发行本金总额约120亿港元、2032年到期的零票息可交换债券，交换标的为旗 下阿里健康的股份。此举无疑将增强阿里巴巴在AI、电商出海及即时零售战场的资金储备。 从高频的外卖市场切入，平台都希望借此推动那些低频、高客单价的商品销售，从而带来整体盈亏的平衡。 对于即时零售的行业大战，银河证券研究院研究所副所长、消费组组长何伟在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时认为，即时零售 的本质是履约能力包括快递、外卖等形态，而不是真正的电商交易。它满足的是消费者希望有人帮忙跑腿购物的需求，其本质 类似于快递服务。消费者通过平台下单，快递员根据需求在本地购买商品并送达，因此这类商品覆盖的品类还是有限的。"以家 电 ...

Core Insights - The "Flash Purchase" initiative by Taobao has become a significant trend in 2025, with a commitment to subsidize consumers and merchants with 50 billion yuan within 12 months [1][4] - The rapid growth of daily orders on Taobao Flash Purchase, reaching over 80 million within two months of its launch, indicates strong consumer demand and market penetration [1][2] - The integration of Taobao, Ele.me, and Fliggy into a "big consumption platform" aims to enhance user experience by providing a comprehensive range of services and products [2][3] Group 1: Performance Metrics - Taobao Flash Purchase achieved over 40 million daily orders by the end of May and surpassed 60 million by the end of June, with a current daily order count exceeding 80 million [1][2] - The platform's non-food orders reached over 13 million, and it accounted for 60% of the market's new order growth [1] - On the first day of subsidy implementation, 589 retail brands saw their order volumes increase by over 100% compared to May 2, with significant growth in categories like ready-to-eat food and beverages [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The surge in orders for products like mosquito nets and herbal medicine reflects a robust consumer spending trend, with top cities for orders including Hefei, Nanjing, and Wuxi [2] - The integration of various services under the "big consumption platform" strategy is expected to create a seamless shopping experience for consumers, addressing both immediate and long-term needs [2][3] - The promotional activities, such as offering free milk tea in major tourist cities, are designed to stimulate consumer engagement and drive sales growth [4][5] Group 3: Economic Implications - Economists predict that the subsidies from Taobao Flash Purchase could potentially unlock a consumption increase worth hundreds of billions, while also alleviating competitive pressures among merchants [3] - The initiative is seen as a strategic move to innovate consumption scenarios and lower costs for consumers, thereby fostering genuine business growth [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to protect and embrace normal market competition while combating "involution" and eliminating policies that distort market incentives [1][4] - The ongoing battle in the food delivery sector, particularly between Taobao and Meituan, highlights a competitive landscape where platforms are engaging in aggressive subsidy strategies, benefiting consumers and enhancing the value of digital assets [2][3] - The market is witnessing a systematic upgrade in consumption transactions, with platforms leveraging their diverse profit channels and operational models to support competitive subsidies [2][3] Group 2 - Recent cases compiled by the market regulatory authority illustrate the characteristics of "involution" in competition, which involves illegal and unfair practices that harm market order [3][4] - Effective protection of normal market competition requires clear definitions and standards for intervention against "involution," ensuring that regulatory actions do not interfere with legitimate competition [3][4] - The regulatory framework must establish mechanisms for correction and compensation to enhance the cost of regulatory capture and prevent exploitative enforcement practices [4]

通过历史数据来看，在过去2个月中，淘宝闪购相关订单增长了6000万单，而全市场日新增订单的总量 是1亿单——这个过程中，淘宝闪购为增量市场贡献了大约60%。 专家认为，淘宝闪购能够快速增长，根本上是因为"大消费"作为新的商业模式，能够创造全新消费新体 验和新服务场景。另外，500亿补贴额是淘宝平台出资，不需要商家投入。这种方式也为打破行业内 卷、激发新消费提供了有效尝试。 日订单超8000万，为增量市场贡献60% 淘宝闪购上线于两个多月前。 4月30日，淘宝天猫旗下业务"小时达"正式升级为"淘宝闪购"，并在淘宝App首页Tab以"闪购"一级流量 入口展示，首日上线50个城市。 随后的5月2日，淘宝闪购提前在全国上线。在品类方面，饿了么供给面向淘宝闪购全部开放；在运力方 面，淘宝闪购由饿了么重点保障履约，在全国范围内提供30分钟送达运力支持；在福利方面，淘宝闪购 联合饿了么共同加大补贴，围绕消费者提供福利优惠，如免单红包、免单奶茶、大额满减外卖券等权 益。 近一个月后，淘宝的流量入口效果开始显现。5月26日，淘宝闪购宣布日订单数已超过4000万。 7月2日推出500亿元的补贴计划之后，淘宝闪购近日宣布，日订单数 ...

外卖市场单日订单规模达到 2 亿量级。 文 丨 邱豪 沈方伟 管艺雯 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 管艺雯 7 月 5 日，周六，阿里内部代号 "淮海战役" 的百日闪购增长计划迎来第一个冲单日，内部预期 单量站上 7000 万单。淘宝天猫的市场团队拿出比肩双 11 的预算和阵仗，把各大应用开屏刷成 了橙色。 当天上午，美团在多个城市监测饿了么的配送情况，发现没有超出预期，一位区域经营人员因 此松了口气，觉得可能像之前防御京东一样轻松。但临近下午，他和全国其他美团一线经营人 员突然接到通知，当天要放开限制，全力补贴、极尽所能跟进淘宝闪购的补贴战，冲高单量。 于是在 7 月的第一个周末，两大外卖平台动员了数万员工、几十万个商户、几百万骑手，顶着多地近 40 度的酷暑高温，开始了一场即时零售的压力测试。 品牌商家对美团的全力冲刺毫无准备，大型连锁品牌大多当天下午才接到通知，有些商家甚至表示没 接到通知，就发现平台开始补贴自己。全国各地的奶茶店里，打单机不停地吐出订单，堆积数米长， 有的直接系统崩溃、店员只好手写订单，店内和门外挤满了排队取单的骑手，很多店铺不得不关闭外 卖业务。 美团临时阻击后，淘宝闪购员工并 ...