Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, with increased supply but supported by exports, the fundamentals of iron ore may weaken marginally, yet there could be periods of structural shortages, and demand at the lower end is supported. Domestic demand remains stable overall, while overseas demand is strong. It is expected that the price trend will not be significant, maintaining a wide - ranging oscillatory pattern. The price range for the fourth quarter is Platts 62: [90, 115], and the iron ore index is [700, 900]. The recommended industrial risk management strategy is range - bound operation [4][5][117] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Ore Price Review in 2025 - **January 15 - February 21**: Pessimistic expectations were reversed, and supply disruptions supported price increases. The black market followed the stock market, with positive domestic and overseas macro - sentiments. Three hurricanes affected Western Australia ports, reducing global shipments, and the spot market was tight. After the Spring Festival, the rapid resumption of coking coal production and inventory accumulation also supported iron ore prices [6] - **February 22 - April 8**: Both expectations and fundamentals weakened. After the hurricane, shipping resumed, and the black market diverged from the stock market. Tariff policies and the expectation of crude steel reduction led to a downward trend in prices [7] - **April 9 - June 18**: A temporary balance was reached after risk release. After the tariff shock in early April, the iron ore valuation was low, but the actual demand remained strong, with increasing hot metal production and decreasing port inventory. The Geneva Agreement led to a price increase, but the subsequent weakening of export demand and the cooling of the US economy led to a period of low - volatility oscillation [8] - **June 19 - September 22**: Iron ore prices bottomed out in late June and then rose steadily. The anti - involution trading in the commodity market drove up the price of iron ore through the increase in steel prices and the improvement of steel mill profits. The falsification of the previous pessimistic expectations also contributed to the price rebound [9] - **September 23 - Present**: Overall demand weakened, but the supply of coking coal and the structural shortage of iron ore supported prices, resulting in a wide - ranging price oscillation. The continuous high hot metal production led to over - seasonal inventory accumulation of steel products, and the decline in steel mill profits increased the pressure of negative feedback production cuts. However, the decline in coking coal prices and the structural shortage of medium - grade ore supported the price of iron ore [11] 2. Supply - **2025 Supply Situation**: The global iron ore supply in 2025 was tight at first and then loose. As of early December 2025, the global shipment was about 1.46 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The supply in China was generally balanced, with a 0.7% year - on - year increase in imports from January to October and a 1.35% year - on - year decrease in domestic iron concentrate production. The main suppliers, Australia and Brazil, faced production and shipping difficulties due to natural disasters [14][21] - **Key Suppliers' Situations**: - **Australia**: In early 2025, the Pilbara region in Western Australia was hit by severe hurricanes, causing production stoppages, port closures, and transportation disruptions. In February, Cyclone "Zelia" forced Port Hedland to close for 3 days, and Rio Tinto's first - quarter shipments decreased by 9.35% year - on - year [23] - **Brazil**: In early 2025, heavy rainfall and floods in the northern mining areas affected mining and transportation. The export revenue of iron ore to China in the first quarter decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the shipment volume decreased by 5% - 8% [23] - **India**: It is shifting from a net exporter to a net importer. In 2025, its imports increased significantly, and exports decreased sharply. The government's policy to support the domestic steel industry and the expansion of the steel industry led to an increase in demand for iron ore [26] - **Russia**: In 2025, China's imports from Russia increased by 42.23% year - on - year. The decline in Russia's domestic steel industry demand and the optimization of the Sino - Russian railway logistics system contributed to this increase [30] - **Mongolia**: In the first 10 months of 2024, its exports to China increased by 21.84% year - on - year, mainly due to the improvement of port clearance efficiency and the construction of cross - border railway networks [31] - **Four Major Mines**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total production of the world's four major mines increased year - on - year, but there were internal differences. Vale and FMG had obvious production increases, while BHP and Rio Tinto had some production declines or challenges. The S11D project of Vale and the Western Range project of Rio Tinto are important production - increasing projects [38][39] - **Domestic Mines**: The cumulative production of domestic iron concentrate was about 215 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35%, mainly due to safety inspections and rainfall in the north. Currently, domestic mines are in the process of resuming production [64] - **2026 Supply Outlook**: It is expected that the iron ore supply in 2026 will increase steadily, with the increment mainly coming from Simandou and Brazil. With high prices supporting shipments and new capacity coming online, shipments are expected to increase by 2% year - on - year, equivalent to about 30 million tons of iron concentrate [68] 3. Demand - **Overall Demand Outlook in 2026**: The demand pattern of the black market has shifted from domestic - driven to external - driven. In 2026, the "weak domestic and strong overseas" structure is expected to continue. Domestic infrastructure and real estate demand will be weak, while the export chain will be the main support for black metal demand. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts may stimulate overseas manufacturing demand, which is beneficial for China's steel exports [69][70] - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: The real estate industry is still in a bottom - grinding stage, and sales are expected to continue to decline in 2026. Infrastructure investment has also shown signs of weakening. However, the new construction area of real estate may improve marginally in 2026, which may reduce the drag on rebar demand [76][77] - **Hot Metal Production**: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was 2.3748 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.43%. Currently, steel mill profits have declined, but with the concession of coking coal prices, there is still some production profit. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel industry has been alleviated, and hot metal production has decreased [83] - **Steel Mill Supply Structure and Downstream Demand**: In 2025, downstream steel mill demand was supported by exports. The demand for building materials decreased, while the demand for plate steel maintained positive growth, but the growth rate slowed down. Steel mills adjusted their supply structure through production transfer [86][87] - **Export Support**: Overseas exports are still an important support for steel demand. In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. It is expected that in 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of steel exports will remain positive, but the decline may narrow further [95] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Due to the impact of hurricanes and high hot metal production in the first three quarters of 2025, port inventory decreased marginally. Currently, shipments have recovered, and port inventory may start to accumulate again, which will suppress the upward space of iron ore prices. There is also a structural shortage of iron ore, especially for the medium - grade ore required by steel mills [98] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills adhere to the low - inventory strategy for raw materials, with a relatively high proportion of trading ore. The global iron ore floating inventory is currently high, and the arrival rhythm of iron ore is expected to accelerate. The shipping cost of iron ore has increased, and its weight in the iron ore price has also increased [100][103] 5. Valuation - **Term Structure**: The term structure of iron ore remains in a back structure, but the contango of the far - month contracts has narrowed. In 2026, attention can be paid to the opportunities of structural shortages between ore powders and months for arbitrage trading [107] - **Iron - Scrap Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of scrap steel has significantly improved in the past six months. In 2026, attention should be paid to the strengthening of the substitution effect of scrap steel on iron ore [110] - **Coking Coal/Iron Ore Seesaw Effect**: In 2025, the price seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore was significant. In 2026, this effect is expected to continue under the background of low - profit operation of steel mills [112][113] - **Volatility**: In 2025, the implied volatility of iron ore options was generally decreasing. It is expected that the volatility will remain at a low level, but attention should be paid to potential volatility increases due to sudden macro - events [115]

Core Viewpoint - Woodside Energy Group Ltd's share price has declined approximately 2% following the resignation of CEO Meg O'Neill, who is moving to BP, a major competitor [1][2][12]. Company Overview - Woodside Energy, established in 1954, has evolved into a global oil and gas company, engaging in the exploration, development, production, and supply of oil and natural gas [1]. - The company merged with BHP Group Ltd's petroleum segment in June 2022, enhancing its operational capabilities [1]. Leadership Changes - Meg O'Neill has resigned as CEO and Managing Director to take on the CEO role at BP, with Liz Westcott appointed as acting CEO effective December 18, 2025 [2][6]. - Liz Westcott has a strong background, having previously served as COO at Energy Australia and holding a 25-year career at ExxonMobil [3]. Financial Performance - Under Meg O'Neill's leadership, Woodside has paid approximately $11 billion in dividends to shareholders since 2022, reflecting strong business performance [4]. - The company is positioned for continued growth, with a focus on executing major projects and maintaining operational excellence [7]. Future Strategy - Woodside's priorities for 2026 include safe and efficient operations, execution of major projects, and adherence to the strategic course outlined during the November 2025 Capital Markets Day [7]. - The board is actively assessing both internal and external candidates for a permanent CEO appointment, aiming to conclude this process in the first quarter of 2026 [8]. Compensation Details - Liz Westcott will receive an annual salary of $1.8 million as acting CEO, which includes a higher duties allowance of $600,000 [10]. - There will be no change to her incentive opportunity for FY25, but it will increase for FY26 to reflect her higher salary [11]. Market Reaction - The Woodside share price has fallen 11% over the last month, influenced by declining liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil prices [13]. - The current share price decline may present an opportunity for potential investors, although some analysts are cautious about adding Woodside to their portfolios [13].

Core Insights - BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is acquiring a 49% stake in BHP's iron ore power network in Western Australia for $2 billion, aimed at freeing up capital for BHP to invest in new projects, particularly in copper and potash [2][3] Company Developments - BHP's CEO Mike Henry emphasized the importance of capital allocation and the need to secure better multiples for redeployment into higher-returning growth opportunities [3] - The company is focusing on copper as a key growth commodity, expecting demand to grow by 70% over the next 25 years, with a 30% growth in their copper business over the past three years [5][6] - BHP is the world's largest copper producer and has four major copper growth projects, including the Resolution project in Arizona, which could supply 25% of the US's copper demand for decades [6] Market Trends - The demand for copper is driven by its essential role in powering the economy and the energy transition, particularly in data centers [5] - Potash is becoming increasingly important due to its role in fertilizer production, especially in light of geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [9][12] - BHP is investing $12 billion in developing its potash project in Jansen, Saskatchewan, which is expected to supply about 10% of the world's potash by 2027 [11][12] Regulatory Environment - The US administration is taking measures to stimulate investment in mining, particularly for potash, which is currently exempt from certain tariffs [14][16] - BHP is monitoring potential tariffs on copper but remains optimistic about its copper business's future demand [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the copper industry [10]. Core Insights - The production of major copper-producing countries, Chile and Peru, has shown mixed results, with Chile's production slightly increasing and Peru's production recovering after a decline in 2024 [4][18]. - The overall production from twelve overseas copper mining companies has decreased, with significant declines noted in Freeport and Glencore due to operational disruptions [5][66]. - Future new or expanded copper mining projects are limited, indicating a potential supply constraint in the coming years [8][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Production from Major Producing Countries - Chile's copper production for January to September 2025 reached 3.972 million metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [4][18]. - Peru's copper production during the same period was 2.048 million metric tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.58% [4][18]. - The increase in Chile's production is primarily attributed to the Escondida project, while Peru's growth is driven by Las Bambas and Toromocho projects [4][18]. 2. Overseas Copper Mining Companies' Production - The total copper production from fifteen major copper mining companies in the first three quarters of 2025 was 9.3231 million metric tons, a slight increase of 0.36% year-on-year [5][43]. - Excluding three Chinese companies, the twelve overseas companies reported a total production of 7.5641 million metric tons, a decrease of 2.42% year-on-year [5][43]. - Freeport and Glencore experienced significant production declines of 13.61% and 17.26%, respectively, due to operational issues [5][66]. 3. Future Project Developments - There are few new or expanded copper mining projects anticipated, with notable projects like Codelco's Rajo Inca and First Quantum's Kansanshi expansion expected to contribute limited additional supply [8][9]. - Long-term projects such as Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi are in ramp-up phases, with expected production increases by 2028 [9].

Summary of Mining Equities Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector Performance**: In 2025, mining equities outperformed equity benchmarks, primarily driven by gold and copper, while ferrous metals and energy remained flat or declined [1][15] - **2026 Outlook**: Expectations for copper, aluminium, and lithium to outperform due to supply constraints and energy transition, with a cautious view on traditional end markets in developed economies [2][15] Key Commodities Insights Copper - **Market Dynamics**: The medium-term outlook for copper remains bullish, with expectations of market tightness in 2026 due to limited growth in global mine output and a deficit in refined output [3][4] - **Investment Opportunities**: Freeport is highlighted as a top pick due to its discounted valuation and expected production recovery at the Grasberg mine [4][23] Aluminium - **Demand vs Supply**: The outlook for aluminium is mixed; while demand holds up, supply constraints are expected, particularly from China and developed markets [5][24] - **Investment Recommendation**: A buy recommendation for Norsk Hydro is reiterated, with expectations of stable operations and potential cash returns [8][24] Gold - **Market Sentiment**: Gold remains a consensus macro trade, with equities delivering strong returns in 2025. However, valuations are less compelling than at the start of the year [9][22] - **Top Picks**: Barrick and Newmont are identified as top picks, with potential for further catalysts in 2026 [10][22] Iron Ore - **Price Forecast**: The medium-term outlook for iron ore is bearish, with prices expected to stabilize around $100/t in the short term and decline to $90/t by 2027 due to increased supply from Simandou [11][20] Coal - **Market Conditions**: Met coal prices have risen above $200/t due to demand and supply disruptions, while thermal coal remains stable at $110/t [12][20] Diversified Miners - **Performance Comparison**: Vale outperformed in the bulks sector, while RIO and BHP performed in line with benchmarks. A preference for RIO over Vale and BHP is noted due to better growth prospects [13][25] Earnings and Price Target Changes - **Adjustments**: Earnings estimates and price targets have been adjusted based on commodity price forecasts, with notable upgrades for copper miners like FCX and KGHM [28][29] Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The report emphasizes a selective investment approach in mining equities, focusing on commodities with strong fundamentals and potential for price gains, particularly copper, aluminium, and gold [2][15][22]

Core Insights - The ASX index saw significant returns in 2025, driven primarily by materials, industrials, and telecommunications sectors, with commodities, infrastructure, and connectivity playing key roles in the rally [1] Materials Sector - The materials sector led the ASX with a remarkable 27% gain, primarily driven by gold and critical minerals rather than traditional iron ore [2][3] - Gold prices surged approximately 60% in 2025, with notable performances from Evolution Mining Ltd, which rose 160%, and Newmont Corporation, which increased by 149% [4] - The strategic importance of rare earths led to a 97% increase in Lynas Rare Earths Ltd, reflecting the sector's role in defense, electrification, and clean energy [5][6] Industrials Sector - The industrials sector achieved a solid 9% return, supported by high-quality businesses such as Transurban Group, which benefited from resilient traffic volumes and inflation-linked tolls [9] - Brambles Limited saw an 18% increase, leveraging its global pallet pool amid steady demand for consumer staples and e-commerce [9] - ALS Ltd rose 44%, driven by demand for testing and inspection services across various markets [10] Telecommunications Sector - The telecommunications sector combined defensive income with growth, achieving an 8% return in 2025 [2][13] - Telstra Corporation Ltd gained 21% as it raised prices across services while maintaining cost control, solidifying its position as a defensive stock [14] - Aussie Broadband Ltd stood out with a 42% increase, expanding its market share and transitioning into a national player [15] - Tuas Ltd experienced an 11% rise, benefiting from offshore growth in Singapore with its low-cost mobile offerings [16] Future Outlook - The performance of these sectors in 2026 will be influenced by commodity prices and interest rates, alongside macroeconomic factors [18] - Long-term success will depend on disciplined investment in high-quality businesses that can grow earnings and maintain strong balance sheets [19]

Group 1 - BHP Group (NYSE:BHP) is one of the largest mining companies globally and recently announced a $2 billion investment from BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners in its Western Australia Iron Ore's inland power network [2] - BHP will maintain operational control of the site and will hold a 51% stake in the new entity created with BlackRock, paying a tariff corresponding to its share [2] - Analysts have been active regarding BHP's shares, with JPMorgan raising its price target to GBp 2,300 from GBp 2,100 while maintaining a Neutral rating [3] Group 2 - Bank of America Securities has a Buy rating on BHP with a target price of A$49, indicating positive sentiment towards the stock [4] - On November 24th, BHP announced it would not pursue a combination with Anglo American plc, citing the potential of its own organic growth strategy as a reason [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Iron Ore & Coal Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the iron ore and coal industry, particularly the dynamics of steel production in China for the year 2025 [2][5]. Key Points and Arguments Steel Production Data Discrepancies - There is a notable divergence in steel production data from different sources: NBS reports a year-to-date decline of -4% in crude steel production, while CISA and MySteel data show flat or increasing trends [5][8]. - The NBS data has been weaker since April 2025, aligning with government directives for capacity rationalization, while CISA and MySteel data suggest stronger demand [5][8]. - Concerns about potential underreporting by NBS, similar to adjustments made in 2023, raise questions about the accuracy of the data [5][8]. Iron Ore Market Dynamics - Iron ore prices softened to $105 per ton, down from $108, attributed to weakening demand and rising inventories [6]. - Despite the price drop, iron ore prices have remained surprisingly resilient in 2025, consistently above $100 per ton [6]. - The strength in the iron ore market is partially attributed to resilient demand from China, despite weak performance in the property and infrastructure sectors [5][6]. Production and Utilization Rates - NBS reported a crude steel production decline of -3.9% year-to-date, while CISA reported a smaller decline of -0.3% [8]. - MySteel indicated a +3.3% increase in pig iron production, with blast furnace utilization rates rising by 340 basis points to 89.1% [8]. - Steel exports from China in November increased by +2% month-over-month, remaining elevated at 115 million tons per annum despite trade restrictions [9]. Inventory and Shipment Trends - Iron ore port inventories in China are healthy at approximately 140 million tons, with a slight week-over-week increase of 3 million tons [9]. - Shipments from traditional markets, including Brazil and Australia, have shown recovery, with Brazil up +4% and Australia up +2% year-to-date [9]. - The first shipment from the Simandou project departed on December 2, 2025, marking a significant development in supply [9]. Company Ratings and Financial Projections - UBS maintains Neutral ratings on major companies such as Vale, RIO, BHP, and FMG, with a Sell rating on KIO [9]. - Estimated free cash flow yields for 2026 are projected at 5% for BHP and 9% for both RIO and Vale [9]. Additional Important Insights - The NBS has deployed inspection teams to investigate potential statistical falsification issues, indicating a focus on data integrity [5]. - The overall health of iron ore inventories and the recovery of shipments from traditional markets suggest a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics in the iron ore market [9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the complexities and current trends within the iron ore and coal industry, particularly in relation to China's steel production landscape.

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a slight decrease in Chile's copper production for the first ten months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with a total output of 4.427 million tons, down 0.7% from 4.458 million tons [1] Group 2 - In October 2025, copper production in Chile was 455,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.8% [1] - Codelco, the state-owned copper mining company, reported a cumulative copper production of 1.127 million tons for the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [1] - BHP's Escondida mine achieved a cumulative copper production of 1.139 million tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 10% [1] - The Collahuasi mine, jointly owned by Glencore and Anglo American, produced 332,000 tons of copper, which is a significant year-on-year decrease of 30% [1] - Antofagasta Minerals' Los Pelambres mine reported a cumulative copper production of 252,000 tons, down 7.8% year-on-year [1]

Core Insights - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] - The Zacks Momentum Style Score helps investors identify stocks with strong momentum, addressing the challenges of defining momentum [2] Company Overview: BHP - BHP currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong potential for momentum investing [3] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), which historically outperforms the market when combined with a Style Score of A or B [4] Price Performance - BHP shares have increased by 7.53% over the past week, outperforming the Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry, which rose by 2.79% [6] - Over the past month, BHP's shares rose by 8.88%, while the industry saw a performance of 10.91% [6] - In the last quarter, BHP shares increased by 16.75%, compared to the S&P 500's 5.09% [7] - Over the past year, BHP shares are up 16.15%, while the S&P 500 has risen by 14.7% [7] Trading Volume - BHP's average 20-day trading volume is 2,860,280 shares, which serves as a baseline for price-to-volume analysis [8] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, two earnings estimates for BHP have been revised upwards, with no downward revisions, boosting the consensus estimate from $3.89 to $4.59 [10] - For the next fiscal year, two estimates have also moved upwards without any downward revisions [10] Conclusion - BHP's strong performance metrics and positive earnings outlook contribute to its designation as a 1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A, making it a compelling option for investors seeking momentum plays [12]