恒指转涨，中国神华涨超4%，中国海洋石油涨超2%。 ...

中金公司研报指出，中国神华预告2025年A股业绩同比减少11.3%~2.3%。判断业绩下滑可能主要系煤价 和电价下跌、煤炭销量下滑所致。往前看，该行预期电价下跌、新能源发电继续增加，或拖累公司电力 业务表现，不过在容量电价补偿有望增加、增量电力机组有望投产下，公司电力业务盈利仍有一定韧 性。根据公司公告，公司千亿煤炭&电力资产收购相关事项已通过股东大会表决，往前看我们预期公司 煤炭资源有望增厚、电力机组容量有望增加，公司煤电一体化的业务优势和行业头部地位有望进一步巩 固。由于煤价等假设调整，下调A股2025/26E盈利2%/7%至522/502亿元，下调H股2025/26E盈利5%/10% 至538/515亿元。维持A/H股"跑赢行业"评级，下调A/H股目标价7%/4%至43元/43港元。 ...

中银国际发表研报指，中国神华预期2025年净利润按年下跌6.3%至14.7%，到508亿至558亿元，较该行 预测低0.6%至9.5%，亦意味去年第四季盈利按季下降1.5%至35.6%。该行认为，盈利按季下降主要因煤 炭业务计入了更多成本以及销售组合变化，而电力业务则面临煤炭成本上涨、电价下降和利用率降低等 问题。该行维持对其"持有"评级，目标价为42.5港元。 ...

中金发表研报指，中国神华预告去年纯利介乎495亿至545亿元，扣非纯利介乎472亿至502亿元。公司的 盈利预告基本符合中金预期，相信业绩下滑主要是由于煤价和电价下跌、煤炭销售下滑所致。该行下调 中国神华A股目标价7%至43元，并下调H股目标价4%至43港元，均维持"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that China Shenhua (01088.HK) is expected to see a 7% to 16% year-on-year decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of RMB 49.5 billion to RMB 54.5 billion, which aligns with market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The investment bank estimates that the company's net profit for the last quarter will range between RMB 10.4 billion and RMB 15.4 billion, compared to RMB 15.3 billion in the same quarter of 2024 [1] - The target price for China Shenhua's H-shares is set at HKD 44.1, with a rating of "Overweight" [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings - The majority of analysts maintain a "Buy" rating for the stock, with one analyst issuing a buy rating in the last 90 days, and the average target price over this period is HKD 47.7 [1] - First Shanghai's latest report also gives a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua, with a target price of HKD 47.7 [1] Group 3: Market Position - China Shenhua has a market capitalization of HKD 145.299 billion, ranking first in the coal mining II industry [1]

另外，大摩续指，短期内矿井端供应减少支撑着动力煤价格，随着农历新年假期临近，下游补库需求略 为回升，国内煤炭总供应仍然充足。另一方面，由于水电、太阳能等可再生能源发电量上升，需求可能 出现温和下滑。疲弱的行业基本面将对动力煤价格及中国神华的盈利构成压力。然而，持续的成本管控 以及资产注入带来的预期产量增长，将为盈利提供更高稳定性。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，中国神华（601088）(01088)预期2025年净利润将同比下降7%至16%，至495亿 至545亿元人民币，大致符合市场预期。该行按此推算，预计公司上季净利润将介乎104亿至154亿元人 民币，相较2024年同期则为153亿元人民币。该行予中国神华H股目标价44.1港元，评级为"增持"。 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，中国神华(01088)预期2025年净利润将同比下降7%至16%，至495亿至545亿元 人民币，大致符合市场预期。该行按此推算，预计公司上季净利润将介乎104亿至154亿元人民币，相较 2024年同期则为153亿元人民币。该行予中国神华H股目标价44.1港元，评级为"增持"。 另外，大摩续指，短期内矿井端供应减少支撑着动力煤价格，随着农历新年假期临近，下游补库需求略 为回升，国内煤炭总供应仍然充足。另一方面，由于水电、太阳能等可再生能源发电量上升，需求可能 出现温和下滑。疲弱的行业基本面将对动力煤价格及中国神华的盈利构成压力。然而，持续的成本管控 以及资产注入带来的预期产量增长，将为盈利提供更高稳定性。 ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國神華能源股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01088 | 說明 | H股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,377,482,000 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 3,377,482,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,377,482,000 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 3,377,482,000 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook relative to the market index [3][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 495 to 545 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.3% to 2.3%, with a midpoint estimate of 520 billion yuan, which is a 6.8% decrease [1]. - The report highlights the company's resilience in performance despite market challenges, with a focus on its integrated coal, electricity, and chemical operations, which are expected to enhance its value creation capabilities [7][8]. - The company is actively pursuing a significant asset acquisition from its parent group, which is anticipated to strengthen its operational integration and increase shareholder returns, with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% from 2025 to 2027 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 518 billion yuan for 2025, with projections of 537 billion yuan and 549 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.61 yuan, with a projected P/E ratio of 16.07 [9]. Market Position - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 833.1 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 691.5 billion yuan [5]. - The stock has shown a 52-week increase of 18.61%, indicating strong market performance [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is in the process of acquiring a substantial asset package from its parent group, which will significantly enhance its coal reserves and production capacity, as well as its power generation capabilities [7][8]. - The acquisition is expected to improve operational efficiency and increase the return on equity (ROE) while maintaining a strong dividend policy [7][8].

中国神华（601088）动态点评 业绩逆势稳健，龙头价值凸显 2026 年 02 月 02 日 【事项】 公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。按中国企业会计准则，25 年归母净利润 495~545 亿元，同比-11.3%~-2.3%，中枢 520 亿元，同比-6.8%；扣 非净利 472~502 亿元，同比-21.5%~-16.5%，中枢 487 亿元，同比- 19%。25 年非经常性损益预计为利得，主要原因是冲减无需支付的支 出（或主要为冲回前期计提的储备项目）。 【评论】 挖掘价值 投资成长 增持（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 《25Q2 归母净利环增 6%，盈利韧性和中 期 79%分红彰显龙头风范》 2025.09.04 《打造央企重组示范标杆，切实保护中小 股东利益》 2025.08.20 证券分析师：李淼 证书编号：S1160524120006 证券分析师：王涛 证书编号：S1160525020003 证券分析师：朱彤 证书编号：S1160525030006 相对指数表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 中国神华 沪深300 | 基本数据 | | ...