证券研究报告｜TMT 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 2 日 AI 算力多元竞争开启，产业链迎新机遇 【20251124-20251130】 周度市场回顾：本周（11/24-11/30）沪指周涨幅 1.4%， 收 3888.6 点，深证成指周涨幅 3.56%，收 12984.08 点，创业 板指周涨幅 4.54%，收 3052.59 点。本周 A 股市场在经历了 周初的连续调整后，于下半周展现出韧性，主要指数触底反 弹，整体呈现先抑后扬的格局。 周度行业要闻：（1）闻泰科技敦促安世荷兰正视问题。 11 月 28 日，闻泰科技(600745.SH)发布关于安世半导体控制 权争议及全球芯片产业链稳定的官方声明。（2）谷歌 TPU 市 值逼近 4 万亿美元。近日，谷歌母公司 Alphabet 股价连续多 日强势上涨，市值逼近 4 万亿美元，创下历史新高。截至 24 日收盘，Alphabet 市值约为 3.84 万亿美元，位列全球第三， 仅次于英伟达和苹果。AI 算力市场正加速摆脱对英伟达 GPU 的单一依赖，寻求基础设施多元化，拥抱以 TPU 为代表的 AI 专用芯片的新架构方向。（3）北京"十五五"规划聚焦未来 ...

Group 1: Market Movements - Dow futures rose by 0.03%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures gained 0.15% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with Xpeng down 4.6%, Bilibili down over 1%, and Alibaba down 1.5% [1] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in Synopsys to enhance collaboration in GPU acceleration, AI, and digital twin technology across various industries [2] - Marvell Technology is in advanced talks to acquire Celestial AI for a deal worth several billion dollars, involving cash and stock [2] - Netflix proposed a cash-heavy acquisition bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, with a competitive bidding process ongoing [3] Group 3: Industry Insights - Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for Google's TPU production, predicting an increase from approximately 3 million units to 5 million units by 2027, a 67% increase [3] - Elon Musk recommended Alphabet and Nvidia as top AI stocks during a podcast, indicating confidence in their market positions [4]

Core Insights - Alphabet has transitioned from being perceived as an AI laggard to a leader in the AI space, overcoming significant challenges and achieving a stock increase of nearly 68% as of November 26 [3][11] - The company faced a lawsuit from the U.S. Department of Justice regarding monopolistic practices, which raised concerns about its business model, particularly in digital advertising and search [2][5] - Alphabet's AI innovations, such as AI Overview summaries and the new Gemini 3 model, have impressed investors and are expected to help maintain its 90% market share in traditional search [7][8] Company Developments - Alphabet's AI Overview feature has led to increased user engagement, with more detailed questions and higher click-through rates [7] - The company has launched AI Mode within its search engine to compete with chatbots like ChatGPT, enhancing its capabilities in the search market [7][11] - Alphabet is exploring the sale of its custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) to other hyperscalers, which could target up to 10% of Nvidia's business [9][10] Market Position - Alphabet is well-positioned in the AI race, with a diverse portfolio that includes YouTube, Google Cloud, and Waymo, indicating strong growth potential across various tech sectors [12][13] - The integration of AI into its search engine is seen as a powerful strategy to fend off competition from emerging AI technologies [11] - Analysts predict that Alphabet's innovations will help sustain its dominant position in the search market despite previous concerns [8]

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，专家学者、券商基金私募掌舵人、首席分析师等齐聚一堂，共寻穿越 周期的投资真谛。东方港湾创始人兼董事长但斌出席并发表主旨演讲。 但斌在演讲中指出，AI领域的竞争很可能催生更为垄断的商业模式。他表示，回顾互联网与移动互联 网的发展历程，商业格局已呈现出日益集中的趋势。而随着人工智能AI Agent的逐渐成熟与普及，未来 全球产业生态或将进一步被少数几家企业主导，其市值规模有望达到前所未有的高度。 但斌进一步预测，谷歌与英伟达等巨头有望"比翼齐飞"，共同迈向十万亿美元市值大关。 责任编辑：宋雅芳 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，专家学者、券商基金私募掌舵人、首席分析师等齐聚一堂，共寻穿越 周期的投资真谛。东方港湾创始人兼董事长但斌出席并发表主旨演讲。 但斌在演讲中指出，AI领域的竞争很可能催生更为垄断的商业模式。他表示，回顾互联网与移动互联 网的发展历程，商业格局已呈现出日益集中的趋势。而随着人工智能AI Agen ...

英国养老基金正减少对美股的敞口，背后原因是市场担忧：当前美股市场对少数科技股的集中度不断提 升，且人工智能（AI）领域存在泡沫风险。 管理着超过 2000 亿英镑资产（服务数百万英国储户）的多家养老基金向《金融时报》表示，近几个月 来，它们已开始调整资产配置 —— 要么将资金转向其他地区市场，要么采取措施对冲股价可能下跌的 风险。 这一系列调整的背景是：以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数今年以来涨幅已超 20%，且自 2023 年初至 今涨幅已逾一倍。推动这一涨势的，正是英伟达（Nvidia）、字母表（Alphabet）、元宇宙（Meta）等 所谓的 "七大科技巨头"（Magnificent Seven）。 市场对少数股票的过度集中，以及可能出现的泡沫风险，让养老储户面临股价暴跌的潜在风险，这些担 忧正不断加剧。 "我们意识到美股存在特定风险，例如关祱政策影响，以及对大型科技股的过度集中持仓，" 凤凰集团 （Phoenix Group）旗下标准人寿（Standard Life）的投资方案负责人卡勒姆・斯图尔特表示。该公司管 理着规模 360 亿英镑的 "可持续多元资产基金"，服务 200 万客户，其中约 60% ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock has faced pressure due to perceived competition from Google, but strategic industry partnerships may help restore investor confidence in the company [1] Group 1 - Nvidia's stock has been negatively impacted by concerns regarding competition from Google [1] - The company is exploring various industry partnerships to mitigate these concerns and regain market confidence [1]

Core Insights - Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury stated that the company has turned a corner following the recent recall of thousands of jets for a rapid software fix [1] - Faury emphasized the importance of learning lessons from this incident to prevent future issues [1] Company Summary - The recent software fix involved a significant number of jets, indicating a proactive approach by Airbus to address potential safety concerns [1] - The CEO's comments suggest a focus on improving operational resilience and maintaining customer trust in the wake of the recall [1] Industry Context - The incident highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the aerospace industry regarding software reliability and safety protocols [1] - The need for rapid responses to technical issues is becoming increasingly critical in maintaining competitive advantage within the industry [1]

Group 1 - Prada has completed the acquisition of Versace, a smaller Italian rival that the luxury group has long desired [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics in the AI chip market, highlighting Google's TPU chips as a competitive threat to NVIDIA's dominance in AI training chips, which currently holds over 80% market share [4][10][28]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - NVIDIA has been the leading player in AI training chips, with a market cap exceeding $5 trillion and significant capital market interest [4]. - Recently, Google's TPU chips have gained recognition, leading to a shift in investment from NVIDIA to Google, as evidenced by rising Google stock prices and declining NVIDIA stock prices [10][20]. - Major companies like Meta and Anthropic are placing significant orders for Google's TPU chips, indicating growing industry confidence in their reliability and performance [11][13]. Group 2: Technical Advantages - Google's TPU chips are designed specifically for AI applications, offering better efficiency and lower costs compared to NVIDIA's more general-purpose chips [15][17]. - Industry data shows that NVIDIA's chips have lower utilization rates when training large-scale models, leading to wasted resources and higher operational costs [16][20]. - In contrast, Google's TPU chips utilize sparse computing and cluster interconnects, resulting in significantly lower power consumption [17][18]. Group 3: Implications for NVIDIA - As Google's market share in AI chips increases, NVIDIA's revenue growth may slow, raising concerns about its high valuation, which is already detached from its fundamentals [26][28]. - The potential for a significant correction in NVIDIA's stock price could trigger a broader market sell-off, affecting its suppliers and cloud service providers [29][30]. - The article warns that a collapse of NVIDIA's market position could have negative repercussions for the overall economy, particularly for startups and companies heavily invested in AI technologies [30][31]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current trends indicate a potential bubble in the AI sector, particularly surrounding NVIDIA, which could lead to a market correction [26][32]. - In the long term, as training costs decrease and barriers to entry for large models lower, the market may enter a more competitive phase, referred to as the "hundred model war" [32].

机器之心报道 编辑：陈陈、+0 ChatGPT 三周年刚刚过去，Sam Altman 却显得分外焦虑。 回想 2022 年底，当时 ChatGPT 全球爆红，谷歌 CEO Sundar Pichai 在公司内部发布了红色警报 （Code Red）以应对来自 OpenAI 的威胁。 讽刺的是，短短三年后，攻守之势异也。彼时慌乱的谷歌，如今正以惊人的速度重整旗鼓，Gemini 不 断迭代、多模态能力大幅增强，生图模型 Nano Banana Pro 全方位爆火……Anthropic、xAI 等公司 也在不同技术方向上快速追赶。 再看 OpenAI 这边，情况却显得有些微妙。过去一年，OpenAI 的研究方向不断扩散：推理模型、视 频、多模态、智能体、浏览器……几乎每一条热门技术路径上都能看到 OpenAI 的影子。但往往是发布 即巅峰，后续声量迅速下滑，难以形成持续性的产品势能。 比如 Sora 发布时震惊全网，但之后迟迟没有面向公众的可用产品；GPT Store 一度被视为生态爆发 点，但上线后应用质量参差，热度远不及预期……这种强首发、弱跟进的节奏，让许多原本被寄予厚望 的方向停留在概念或演示层面，而没有成长 ...