Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' report indicates that the investment logic in the Chinese stock market is undergoing a fundamental shift, entering a more sustainable and less volatile "slow bull" phase [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Analysts predict a potential 30% increase in key Chinese stock indices, including A-shares and H-shares, by the end of 2027, driven by earnings growth and valuation recovery [2] - The anticipated rise will be supported by an average annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% in earnings and a 5-10% valuation re-rating, marking a transition from a "hope" phase to a "growth" phase [3][7] Group 2: Supporting Pillars - **Pillar 1: Policy Support** The overall policy environment in China has shifted to a more market-friendly stance, reducing left-tail risks and enhancing shareholder returns through governance reforms [8][9][10] - **Pillar 2: Growth Drivers** Despite a slowdown in macroeconomic growth, three new drivers are expected to push earnings per share (EPS) growth to a "low double-digit" level (around 12%): - AI contributions are projected to add 3 percentage points annually due to increased capital expenditure by tech giants [13] - Anti-involution policies are expected to normalize profit margins, contributing 1.5 percentage points to EPS growth [14] - The trend of Chinese companies seeking global revenue sources is also expected to add 1.5 percentage points to EPS growth [15] - **Pillar 3: Valuation Recovery** Current valuations are deemed reasonable, with the MSCI China Index trading at a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 12.9x, indicating significant upside potential not fully reflected in prices [16][17] - **Pillar 4: Capital Inflows** A significant reallocation of assets from real estate and fixed income to equities is anticipated, with over 6 trillion RMB potentially moving into the stock market in the coming years [18] Group 3: Market Behavior - The report suggests a shift from a "sell on rallies" strategy to a "buy on dips" approach, reflecting a more strategic allocation mindset [5] - Since the low point at the end of 2022, the MSCI China Index has rebounded by 81%, recovering about half of the previous market value loss, although it has experienced four major pullbacks averaging 22% [6]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs is expanding its Private Wealth Management services in the Middle East by launching an onshore presence in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, enhancing its existing office established in 2008 [1][2] - The firm aims to leverage its 'One Goldman Sachs' strategy, collaborating with various teams to provide comprehensive services to clients in the region [2] - Saudi Arabia is viewed as a significant market due to its dynamic economy and concentration of ultra-high net worth individuals, presenting substantial investment opportunities [3] Expansion Details - The new unit will focus on delivering access to Goldman Sachs' leading Private Wealth Management business, offering local and global investment opportunities [3] - To support this initiative, Goldman Sachs has appointed Yousef Alhozaimy and Khalid Soufi as private wealth advisors in Riyadh and is actively recruiting additional advisors [4] Market Position - As of September 30, 2025, Goldman Sachs had $1.8 trillion in client assets under supervision, indicating a strong market presence [5] - The firm is also streamlining operations through job cuts and the use of artificial intelligence, yet expects a net increase in its workforce by year-end [5]

（原标题：慢牛正在形成！多家外资机构力挺A股，高盛：未来两年有望涨30%） 在香港市场上，恒生指数从10月2日高点累计回调超5%，恒生科技指数累计回调近12%。 但高盛认为，尽管中国股票可能出现回调，但随着牛市的展开，投资者的惯常思维应从"逢高减仓"转变 为"逢低买入"。 与黄金市场的短期谨慎态度形成对比，机构对A股市场的长期信心持续凸显。 据证券时报，高盛发布最新研报称，中国股市将进入更为持久的上涨阶段，预计关键指数到2027年底将 有约30%的上涨空间，主要由12%的盈利趋势增长和5%-10%的进一步重估潜力推动。 慢牛行情正在展开，四大理由支撑 自2022年末的周期低点以来，MSCI中国指数已反弹了80%，但在这期间，一度遭遇了4次重大的下跌。 而近两周来，中国股票似乎又面临一定的回调压力：上证指数在10月9日突破3900点创下新高之后，未 能更进一步，目前仍持续徘徊在3900点整数关附近。沪深300指数则从10月9日的高点累计回调了近 3%。 惠理集团投资组合总监盛今表示：从估值、政策支持、产业升级和外资回流等多方面来看，中国资产中 长期仍具备一定的吸引力。其中，从估值层面来看，A股整体估值水平仍低于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has announced an agreement to acquire Industry Ventures for a maximum price of $965 million, expected to be completed in Q1 2026, enhancing its investment capabilities in the venture capital space [2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves Goldman Sachs purchasing 100% of Industry Ventures, requiring a payment of $665 million in cash and equity, along with a potential performance-based payment of up to $300 million by 2030 [5]. - Industry Ventures, founded in 2000, manages over $7 billion and has made more than 1,000 investments across various stages of venture capital [2][5]. - Following the acquisition, all 45 employees of Industry Ventures will join Goldman Sachs' Asset Management division, with the founder Hans Swildens becoming a partner [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Collaboration - Goldman Sachs has a collaboration history of over 20 years with Industry Ventures, having been a limited partner (LP) in its funds and promoting its investment strategies to clients for the past decade [3][7]. - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to combine Goldman Sachs' global resources with Industry Ventures' expertise in venture capital, particularly in the context of evolving market demands driven by technology and AI [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The acquisition reflects a broader trend in the venture capital and private equity sectors, where firms are increasingly being acquired, as seen with other recent transactions in the industry [8][10]. - The global private equity and venture capital market, valued at $6 trillion, is experiencing consolidation, with a focus on creating larger, more competitive platforms [10].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Chinese stock market will enter a more sustained upward phase, with key indices expected to rise by approximately 30% by the end of 2027, driven primarily by a 12% growth in earnings trends and a further revaluation potential of 5%-10% [1] Group 1 - Chinese stocks are still deeply discounted relative to global markets, with potential asset reallocation in China amounting to several trillion dollars [1] - Current market sentiment is influenced by the US-China rivalry, which suppresses risk appetite, and investors may need to wait for uncertainties to dissipate [1] - Key upcoming events such as the Fourth Plenary Session, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and the APEC summit are focal points for market participants regarding potential US-China leadership meetings [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, the bull market is unlikely to end, and any market corrections may present good opportunities for asset allocation [1]

智通财经APP获悉，高盛最新研报预计，在市场化政策支持、企业盈利增长以及强劲资金流入的推动 下，中国基准股指到2027年末有望实现30%的涨幅。 "我们如今认为，中国股市的上涨趋势将更具持续性，"包括Kinger Lau在内的策略师在周三发布的报告 中写道。当前，中国股市正迎来波动幅度更小的稳步攀升阶段，"这标志着股市周期正从预期驱动转向 增长驱动"。 高盛指出，需求端刺激政策、人工智能发展带动的盈利增长以及境内外资金的持续流入，共同构成了中 国股市的上涨动力。该行预计未来三年中国企业盈利年均增速可达12%，股票估值较当前水平有望提升 5%-10%。 不过策略师也提醒道，四季度宏观经济周期性放缓，以及关税风险再度升温，"可能会成为投资者获利 了结的理由"。但除非这些问题进一步加剧，"我们仍建议保持持仓，并在市场回调时择机加仓"。 上月，高盛策略师曾表示，鉴于当前中国股市估值处于低位，且家庭与机构投资者配置比例存在提升空 间，投资者应对中国股票采取"逢低买入"策略。今年7月，该机构还将MSCI中国指数的12个月目标点位 从85点上调至90点，理由是中美贸易协议的前景有所改善。 MSCI中国指数在10月初曾突破这 ...

Core Insights - The MSCI China Index has rebounded 80% from its cycle low at the end of 2022, despite experiencing four significant pullbacks [1] - The Chinese stock market is expected to enter a more sustainable upward trend, with major indices projected to rise approximately 30% by the end of 2027, driven by a 12% growth in earnings and a further 5%-10% adjustment in valuations [1] Valuation Factors - Current index price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at a mid-cycle level, with low bond yields and a historical valuation discount of Chinese stocks compared to global markets [1] - The easing of Federal Reserve policies and the potential decline in China's (real) interest rates are favorable for stock valuations [1] Investment Strategy - The existing macro risks may lead to short-term market corrections, but as the bull market unfolds, investor sentiment should shift from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows" [1]

10月21日周二，现货黄金价格盘中一度暴跌6.3%，逼近4000美元关口，创下逾12年来最大单日跌幅，这一波动被视为"5西格玛"（5 sigma）级别 的罕见事件。 现货白银跌幅更甚，一度下挫8.7%。这轮突如其来的抛售终结了此前一周金银价格连创历史新高的势头。高盛交易员评价道： 黄金走势图看起来就像一只崩盘的"妖股"（meme stock）。 而黄金市场的剧烈动荡迅速传导至相关股票。主要黄金生产商巴里克矿业、纽蒙特矿业和Agnico Eagle Mines的股价在周二早盘均下跌超过8%。 连续数周的强劲涨势戛然而止，昨日金银市场经历了惊心动魄的一天。 高盛交易员提供的一些市场观察也印证了这一点：在金价每天上涨约50美元的日子里，"我们几乎没有收到任何客户的问询"；黄金是客户中最受 欢迎的多头头寸，在多数客户调查中，超过80%的受访者认为金价在年底前会上涨；同时，越来越多非大宗商品领域的账户也开始配置黄金。 Adam Gillard据此认为，一场头寸的"清洗"或许是不可避免的。 ETF成为抛售主战场 交易所交易基金（ETF）在此次市场波动中扮演了核心角色，成为投资者快速建立和清算头寸的主要工具。 据高盛的数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investment optimism in China is exceeding expectations, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 30% increase in major Chinese stock indices by the end of 2027, supported by pro-market policies, profit growth, and strong capital inflows [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 30% rise in major Chinese stock indices by the end of 2027, driven by pro-market policies, profit growth, and strong capital flows [2]. - The market is transitioning from "hope" to "growth," indicating a more stable upward trend [2]. - Key drivers include demand-side stimulus, AI-driven profit growth, and robust internal and external capital inflows, with expected earnings growth of 12% over three years and a stock valuation increase of 5% to 10% [2]. Group 2: Consumer Spending Trends - Bank of America reports that consumer spending in China remained robust in October, with evidence of high-income consumers recovering due to the wealth effect from the stock market [3][4]. - The survey indicated that 53% of respondents increased their outings and spending in the past two months, up from 45% in August [3]. - High-income consumers show a significantly higher future spending intention, with 54% expecting to increase spending in the next six months compared to only 31% of middle and low-income consumers [4]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Sentiment - 35% of respondents expect home prices to decline over the next year, while 27% anticipate an increase, indicating a narrowing gap in price expectations [5]. - The overall sentiment in the housing market remains in a contraction phase, but is approaching a bottom [5]. - Membership stores have become the most popular shopping channel, chosen by 34% of respondents, highlighting the importance of convenience, product variety, and quality [5].

0:00 高盛发布研报称，中国股市将进入更为持久的上涨阶段，预计关键指数到2027年底将有约30%的上涨空 间，主要由12%的盈利趋势增长和5%-10%的进一步重估潜力推动。分析师Kinger Lau等在报告中指出， 中国股票相对全球股市仍存在深度折价，潜在的中国资产再配置资金规模可达数万亿美元。随着牛市的 展开，宏观风险仍可能引发阶段性回调，但主导心态应从"逢高减仓"转向"逢低买入"。 ...