Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that oil prices will gradually recover by 2027, driven by a slowdown in supply growth from non-OPEC producers and strong demand growth, leading to a return to a supply-demand imbalance in the crude oil market [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - The investment bank has adjusted its average price forecast for Brent crude and WTI crude in 2027 to $58 per barrel and $54 per barrel, respectively, a decrease of $5 from previous estimates [1] Group 2: Supply Expectations - The upward revision in supply expectations for 2027 includes an increase of 300,000 barrels per day from the United States, 400,000 barrels per day from Venezuela, and 500,000 barrels per day from Russia [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to decline this year due to an increase in supply leading to a market surplus, despite ongoing geopolitical risks that may cause volatility [1] Supply and Demand - A wave of supply is anticipated to create a surplus in the oil market this year [1] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions related to Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are expected to continue influencing market volatility [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that geopolitical risks related to Russia, Venezuela, and Iran will continue to cause market volatility, but oil prices are expected to gradually decline this year due to oversupply from increased production [1][3] - The firm maintains its average price forecast for Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $56 and $52 per barrel for 2026, respectively, predicting prices will drop to $54 and $50 per barrel in Q4 as OECD oil inventories rise [1][3] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a daily oversupply of 2.3 million barrels in the oil market by 2026, indicating that unless there are significant supply disruptions or OPEC implements production cuts, oil prices may need to decline to balance the market and support strong demand growth [1][3] Group 2 - U.S. policymakers are focused on ensuring adequate energy supply and maintaining relatively low oil prices, which is expected to suppress rising oil prices ahead of the midterm elections [2][4] - Oil prices are projected to gradually recover by 2027, as the growth rate of non-OPEC oil supply slows and demand remains strong, leading to a return to a supply-demand imbalance [2][4] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its average price forecast for Brent and WTI crude in 2027 to $58 and $54 per barrel, respectively, a decrease of $5 from previous estimates, due to increased supply expectations from the U.S., Venezuela, and Russia [2][4]

Regulatory Dynamics - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has issued a notice to unify the execution standards for non-auto insurance "reporting and issuing" practices, addressing issues of irrational competition and high costs in the non-auto insurance market [1] - Guangzhou Huilibao Payment Technology Co., Ltd. has been fined over 74 million yuan for multiple violations, including breaches of clearing management regulations and merchant management rules [1] Industry Dynamics - Major state-owned banks are raising the threshold for gold accumulation business, requiring personal clients to have a risk tolerance level of C3- or above to purchase gold accumulation products starting January 12, 2026 [2] - The interest rates for short-term large-denomination time deposits have dropped to "0" for several major state-owned banks, with rates for 1-month and 3-month deposits at 0.9% [2] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products has decreased to 2.2809% as of the end of 2025, with a total market size of 31.63 trillion yuan [3] - A significant wave of deposits maturing, estimated at 50 trillion yuan, is expected this year, with the majority concentrated in 2-year and 3-year deposits [5] - Several joint-stock banks' financial asset investment companies have begun investing in emerging industries, focusing on high-growth sectors such as new energy and materials [5] Corporate Dynamics - Everbright Bank's "Lehui Jin" credit card has been reported to show ghost debts, affecting users' credit scores and loan applications despite no actual defaults [6] - Yunnan's first trillion-yuan bank is set to be established through the merger of local rural credit cooperatives, creating the largest financial institution in the province [7] - Ping An Life has increased its holdings in Agricultural Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, triggering regulatory filings for both [8] - China Dadi Insurance and Sunshine Property Insurance have ceased new financing insurance business applications as of the end of 2025 [8] - Beijing's North Silver Consumer Finance has received approval to increase its registered capital by 150 million yuan, raising it to 1 billion yuan [9] - Jinshan Consumer Finance has become an executed party in a court case, with a claim amount of 20,000 yuan [9] - Zhonggang Yintong's payment license has been revoked by the central bank, marking the 12th payment license cancellation in 2025 [10] - ELong has fully acquired Firefly Microloan, enhancing its position in the financial services sector [11] Overseas Dynamics - JPMorgan Chase is set to take over Goldman Sachs' Apple credit card business, acquiring over $20 billion in credit card loans as Goldman Sachs shifts away from consumer finance [12] - Global fintech venture capital funding has rebounded significantly in 2025, reaching $55.94 billion, a 25% increase from 2024 [13]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September this year, revising its previous forecast of rate cuts in March and June [1] Group 1 - The anticipated rate cuts are now scheduled for mid-year rather than earlier in the year [1] - The adjustment in the forecast reflects changing economic conditions and monetary policy outlook [1]

高盛的预测展现出了更强的乐观预期：在2026年第四季度，美国GDP同比增速有望达到2.5%，全年增 速则预计为2.8%;至同年12月，核心PCE通胀同比增速将回落至2.1%，核心CPI同比涨幅也将放缓至2% 左右。在基准情形下，失业率将稳定在4.5%的水平，但需警惕出现"无就业增长"阶段的风险——企业可 能通过人工智能技术的应用来降低用工成本，从而导致经济增长与就业增长脱节。 在贸易领域，高盛分析指出，即将到来的中期选举将推动生活成本问题成为核心政治议题，这将促使白 宫在关税政策上采取更为谨慎的态度——避免再度显著上调关税。 梅里克在分析中明确指出：在减税政策与实际工资增长的有力支撑下，消费者支出将呈现稳步扩张态 势;进入2026年，商业投资有望成为GDP增长中最具活力的组成部分——这主要得益于宽松金融环境的 持续滋养、政策不确定性降低带来的信心提振，以及税收激励措施对投资行为的直接推动。 高盛经济学家指出，今年美国经济将在减税政策、实际工资上涨以及财富持续增长的多重驱动下实现稳 步增长，同时通胀水平有望逐步趋于温和。然而，鉴于劳动力市场前景愈发不明朗，高盛在其1月11日 发布的《2026年美国经济展望》报告 ...

【最新黄金期货行情解析】 高盛首席美国经济学家戴维·梅里克强调，未来几年GDP增长的结构将与上一周期有所不同。其中，生 产率提升将成为增长的主要驱动力，这一趋势已现反弹迹象，并有望得到人工智能技术的进一步推动。 相比之下，由于移民水平大幅下降，劳动力供应增长对GDP的贡献将有所减少。 彭博社去年12月中旬的经济学家调查显示，普遍预测美国2026年经济增长率为2%，与2025年持平。外 界普遍认为，美国总统特朗普的减税计划将有助于维持美国相对于其他发达经济体的优势地位。 高盛的预测更为乐观，预计2026年第四季度同比GDP增长率为2.5%，全年增长率则达到2.8%。到年 底，核心PCE通胀率预计同比降至2.1%，核心CPI将放缓至2%。基线预测显示，失业率将稳定在4.5%， 但需注意企业利用人工智能降低劳动力成本可能导致"无就业增长"期的出现。 在贸易方面，高盛假设中期选举将使生活成本问题成为政治焦点，从而促使白宫避免采取大幅提高关税 的措施。梅里克认为，在减税和实际工资增长的双重支持下，消费者支出应会稳步增长。同时，更宽松 的金融条件、政策不确定性的降低以及税收激励措施，将共同推动企业投资成为2026年GDP ...

Group 1 - The document does not contain any relevant information regarding companies or industries [2][3][5][6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: China Inflation Trends - December inflation in China showed a slight increase, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising from 0.7% year-over-year (yoy) in November to 0.8% yoy in December, primarily driven by higher food prices [1] - Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation also increased, moving from -2.2% yoy to -1.9% yoy, with significant contributions from mining and smelting of non-ferrous metals [1] - Expectations indicate that PPI deflation will continue to narrow, averaging -0.7% in 2026 compared to -2.6% in 2025 [1] Real Estate Sector Insights - An article published in Qiushi magazine emphasized the importance of the real estate sector and called for more substantial policy easing rather than piecemeal measures [7] - There are differing views among policymakers regarding property policies, as indicated by the Central Economic Work Conference downgrading the real estate sector's priority and the marginal nature of recent property transaction tax cuts [7] Export VAT Rebate Changes - The Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, and for batteries starting January 1, 2027 [8] - Between April 1 and December 31, 2026, the rebate rate on battery exports will decrease from 9% to 6% [8] - This move is seen as part of the government's strategy to discourage investment in overcapacity sectors and respond to international trade concerns following a significant trade surplus [8] Additional Insights - The report suggests that investors should consider the information as one of many factors in their investment decisions [5] - The macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026 includes themes of coping with the "China Shock" and exploring new growth engines [9] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on inflation trends, real estate sector dynamics, and changes in export VAT rebates, which are essential for understanding the current economic landscape in China.

10 January 2026 | 3:59AM GMT Economics Research 2026 GLOBAL FX OUTLOOK Different Dollar Downside n Our central view remains that less US outperformance than before should lead to a less-strong Dollar over time. We first formulated that view in April 2025 as we judged that the net effect of policy changes in the US and abroad was likely to narrow the spread between US performance and the rest of the world and diminish demand for US assets. While the Dollar moved substantially lower over subsequent months, it ...