2024年年报披露之后，爱奇艺的股价，跌了9.25%，尽管给了"四季度迎拐点，2025年将开门红"的预期。2025年一季报发布之后，爱奇艺股价 又跌了8.06%。 几年前的爱奇艺，年年亏损，年年烧钱，市值却能在千亿以上。转为持续盈利之后，爱奇艺股价却不断下跌，现在市值只剩不到200亿元了。 爱奇艺市值方面的困顿，既有定价逻辑的原因，也有爱奇艺自身的原因。 当时的爱奇艺被当认为是有机会长成奈飞的平台，或者是定位线上迪士尼。不管是奈飞还是迪士尼，都几乎处在垄断地位，垄断带来超额利润，溢价更高 也很正常。 但国内的长视频平台没有出现东风压倒西风，更没有出现一家独大的现象，连这样的苗头都没有。垄断地位的预期消散之后，定价逻辑自然就变了。 这几年，环境的确发生了很大的变化，就像爱奇艺CEO龚宇所说，2018年品牌广告能做到超百亿元，现在只有几十亿，龚宇也将爱奇艺目前的处境甩给了 市场环境——虽存在自身不足，但主要问题源于市场环境。 那么，爱奇艺还能不能迎来困境反转的一天？ 01 爱奇艺真没有开门红 爱奇艺的开门红非常勉强。 爱奇艺的收入来自会员服务、在线广告服务、内容分发及其他四个方面。其中，会员服务是主要收入来源，占 ...

长视频平台集体跨过了盈利的门槛。 一季度，阿里在财报中特别提到，优酷盈利——这是优酷成立近20年来，首次盈利；同季度，B站实现连续三个季度盈利，爱奇艺已经连续盈利三年…… 长视频不再是烧钱的生意。 但长视频平台们面临的压力不减。它们身后，还有快速崛起的红果短剧——其最新月活已经逼近优酷。 另一个时代机会也摆在长视频面前，那就是AI带来的提效和业绩增长。 机会已经在它们眼前铺开：微短剧。 正如当初拼多多崛起，也让其他电商平台发现了广阔的下沉市场，微短剧行业的出现，也给长视频平台指了一条路：投入成本更低、回报周期更短的短 剧。 "一部微剧的成本通常低于100万元，大投资的微剧成本也通常在100-200万元之间"，在近期爱奇艺财报电话会上，龚宇说。相比之下，十年前的剧集投资 单集成本要300万。 需要注意的是，龚宇在这里提到的"微剧"主要指时长在1-5分钟左右的竖屏短剧，这样的内容业内更常笼统称之为"短剧"或者"微短剧"。 本季度腾讯、B站、爱奇艺财报中皆提到了AI对效果广告的提升作用。 腾讯新一季财报中曾提及，AI能力已经对效果广告产生了实质性的贡献，智能广告投放系统显著提升匹配精准度。简单来说，就是ROI高了， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $1.75 per ADS [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to increase its focus on short dramas, which is anticipated to drive a rebound in ROI in the long term. The GAAP net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 396 million, 1.647 billion, and 2.347 billion CNY respectively [2]. - The report adjusts the previous profit forecasts due to changes in the competitive landscape for long videos in 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 31.873 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9.91%. However, a decline of 8.31% is expected in 2024 [4]. - The GAAP net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.925 billion CNY, with a significant decline of 1513.58% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 27.52% in 2023 to 23.78% in 2025, before recovering to 26.32% in 2026 and 26.74% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s operating income is projected to be 2.989 billion CNY in 2023, decreasing to 1.107 billion CNY in 2025, but expected to rise to 2.188 billion CNY by 2027 [4]. Revenue Breakdown - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.186 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.35%. The membership service revenue was 4.399 billion CNY, down 8.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.328 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.4% [10]. - Content distribution revenue was reported at 629 million CNY for Q1 2025, down 32.3% year-on-year [10]. Market Performance - The stock price as of May 22, 2025, was $1.69, with a 52-week high of $4.92 and a low of $1.50 [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of $16.27 billion [5]. Comparative Valuation - The adjusted average P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 31X, indicating a valuation benchmark for the company [12].

" 业绩不再狂飙后，爱奇艺下一个爆款何在？ " 作者丨成妍菁 编辑丨董子博 5月21日，爱奇艺发布2025年Q1财报，一季度总收入为71.9亿元，环比增长9%。 其中，会员服务收入44亿元，归属于爱奇艺的净利润为1.821亿元，在线广告服务收入13.3亿元，内容发 行收入6.3亿元，其他收入8.3亿元，本季总收入和运营利润实现环比双增长。 分析师左旋表示"业绩符合预期，环比有所改善，但同比仍有压力。" 比起过去巅峰时期的爱奇艺，本季度财报在收入增长、会员服务和广告业务等关键领域遭遇一定挑战，但 对于内容行业而言，引发波动的相关性太多，可能与人员变动和成本控制有关。 梳理本季度的财报数据发现，其环比增长主要在内容多元化及海外战略布局等方面所做出的积极调整和应 对策略。 01 "长＋短"模式显成效，微短剧用户增长3倍 在财报会议中，"微短剧"成为整场讨论中出现频率最高的词汇。 早在去年9月的秋季悦享会上，爱奇艺正式发力微短剧，提出"短剧+微剧"双引擎。截至目前，爱奇艺上线 超万部微剧，规模与头部微剧平台相当，覆盖市场95%的头部合作方；去年短剧上新56部，是2023年 （16部）的3.5倍。 一位短剧圈人士对雷峰 ...

来源 | 美股研究社 作者 | 在辉 爱奇艺就是提前读懂市场变化的一大代表。去年9月入局以来，爱奇艺对行业统称的短剧进行更 精细地划分，打造竖屏"微剧"和横屏"短剧"，随后持续加码，充实内容。现在，"长+短"内容生态 的协同，已经初步取得成效。 爱奇艺刚刚发布的2025年第一季度财报显示，其总收入达71.9亿元，环比增长9%；运营利润3.4 亿元，环比增长20%；Non-GAAP运营利润4.6亿元，环比增长13%。而根据爱奇艺CEO龚宇在 财报电话会上的说法，" 对比2024年12月的数据，爱奇艺的微剧重度用户数（指花费80%以上 的时间看微剧）增长了3倍"。 观众注意力的变化正在对内容生态做出前所未有的改变。日前，QuestMobile的统计显示，已经 有短剧App的月活即将挤入原本属于长视频平台的梯队。 这反映了用户消费习惯的变化，但反过 来思考，也为内容平台的内容策略给出了指引。 图源：爱奇艺 一个信号已然显现：爱奇艺通过 "长+短"双轮驱动的内容策略，既稳固了长视频基本盘，又深入 挖掘微剧的可能性，展现了平台在内容创新与商业模式优化方面的前瞻性与执行力。而这一切， 都指向了未来的增量。 " 长 " " ...

5月21-22日,第25届IAI传鉴国际广告奖暨垂直奖颁奖典礼在京举办。现场,爱奇艺摘得"年度影响力媒 体"奖,与天猫、京东、豪士、京都念慈菴、老村长酒、理想汽车等头部品牌及阿勒泰文旅联合打造的创 新营销案例,最终斩获7金4银5铜3优秀共二十项大奖,平台商业价值获得业界认可。 | 2518 INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING INSTITUTE REUING CHINA | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.75 TA 套容国际广告奖 | | | | 司之病契俯单 | | | | 案例名称 参选举别 | | 获奖等级 | | 爱奇艺 | 年度影响力媒体 | | | 老村长酒×《喜剧之王单口季》 匠心酿造快乐"饮"领国民纯粮酒新风潮 | 影视广告 | 45 | | 海底捞-2024冬季新品 | 影视广告 | # # | | Passion ETD | | | | 理想L6×《我的阿勒泰》 | 汽车品牌营销 | 美茶 | | 三部曲共鸣理想生活 | | | | 补水啦×《我在横店打篮球》 | 娱乐营销 | रूक | | 综艺营销 | | | | RIO微醺《狐妖小红娘 · ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $1.75 per ADS [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to increase its focus on short dramas, which is anticipated to drive a rebound in ROI in the long term. The GAAP net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 396 million, 1.647 billion, and 2.347 billion CNY respectively [2][4]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to changes in the competitive landscape for long videos in 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company's revenue is projected to decline from 31.873 billion CNY in 2023 to 29.103 billion CNY in 2025, with a slight recovery to 30.578 billion CNY in 2026 and 31.343 billion CNY in 2027 [4][14]. - **Net Profit**: The GAAP net profit is expected to drop significantly to 396 million CNY in 2025, followed by a recovery to 1.647 billion CNY in 2026 and 2.347 billion CNY in 2027 [4][14]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to decrease to 0.41 CNY in 2025, then rise to 1.71 CNY in 2026 and 2.44 CNY in 2027 [4][14]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to decline from 27.52% in 2023 to 23.78% in 2025, before recovering to 26.32% in 2026 and 26.74% in 2027 [4][14]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The P/E ratio is projected to be 30 in 2025, decreasing to 7 in 2026 and 5 in 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation in the coming years [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for iQIYI, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - iQIYI's total revenue for 1Q25 declined by 9% year-over-year but increased by 9% quarter-over-quarter to RMB7.19 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [1]. - Non-GAAP operating income fell by 58% year-over-year but saw a recovery of 13% quarter-over-quarter to RMB459 million, also in line with consensus [1]. - The company is increasing investments in its content ecosystem and micro-drama user acquisition, which is expected to impact short-term margins but may provide long-term monetization opportunities [1][6]. - The target price for iQIYI has been adjusted to US$2.45, down from US$2.60, based on a 13x multiple of projected non-GAAP EPS for 3Q25-2Q26 [1][9]. Revenue and Profitability Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB28.49 billion, RMB28.95 billion, and RMB29.37 billion respectively, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [7]. - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB0.73 billion, RMB1.55 billion, and RMB1.78 billion respectively, indicating a significant downward revision due to short-term margin pressures [7][8]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 23.1% in FY25E, with a gradual recovery to 26.1% by FY27E [7]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - iQIYI's current trading at 8x FY26E PE suggests a safety margin compared to peers, despite the intense competition in China's video streaming sector [1][9]. - The company has made significant progress in its micro-drama ecosystem, with over 15,000 titles available, half of which are free and the other half exclusive to members [6]. Financial Performance - Membership services revenue decreased by 8% year-over-year but grew by 7% quarter-over-quarter to RMB4.40 billion in 1Q25, supported by key titles [6]. - Online advertising revenue fell by 10% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter to RMB1.33 billion, primarily due to macroeconomic uncertainties [6]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin was down to 6.4% in 1Q25, a decrease of 7.3 percentage points year-over-year, driven by increased content and user acquisition investments [6].

Group 1 - iQIYI reported total revenue of 7.19 billion RMB for Q1 2025, a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase [2] - iQIYI's CEO emphasized the importance of high-quality content and the evolution of its business model to meet market demands [2] - The trend in the film and television industry shows companies expanding beyond content production to include IP derivative businesses and AI integration [2] Group 2 - Shanghai Film's IP licensing revenue increased by 62.74% year-over-year, highlighting its successful IP business strategy [3] - iQIYI has launched over 50 operational stores for its immersive theater experience based on popular IPs, with plans for more locations [3] - Reading Group's derivative business achieved a GMV of over 500 million RMB in 2024, with significant growth in card game sales [3] Group 3 - Alibaba Pictures reported over 90% year-over-year growth in its IP derivative business, driven by strong retail sales of licensed products [4] - Wanda Film is collaborating with 52TOYS to develop and market IP toy products, aiming to create a comprehensive IP lifecycle platform [4] - Light Media is transitioning to become an "IP creator and operator," with various IP-related ventures contributing significant revenue [5] Group 4 - The integration of AI technology is seen as a key strategy for film companies to enhance content value and operational efficiency [6] - Alibaba's entertainment division rebranded to Whale Entertainment, focusing on a "content + technology" dual strategy for enhanced user experiences [6] - iQIYI introduced an AI-driven feature that allows users to jump to exciting moments in videos, showcasing the application of AI in content delivery [7] Group 5 - The combination of AI and IP is expected to drive innovation and globalization in the content industry, despite short-term challenges [7]

Core Viewpoint - iQIYI is actively adapting to the changing market and user demands by embracing both long and short video formats, demonstrating resilience and growth in its business model [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1, iQIYI reported total revenue of 7.19 billion RMB, a 9% increase quarter-over-quarter [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit reached 460 million RMB, up 13% from the previous quarter, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 6% [1]. - Membership service revenue was 4.4 billion RMB, showing a positive growth rate, while online advertising revenue was 1.33 billion RMB [1]. Content Strategy - iQIYI is focusing on a dual content strategy of "long and short" videos, enhancing its content library to drive brand marketing growth [3][4]. - The company maintains a leading market share in high-quality series, with significant viewership for popular shows like "漂白" and "白月梵星" [4]. - iQIYI is set to release multiple new series and films, including "捕风追影" and various self-produced animations [5][6]. User Engagement and Growth - The introduction of micro-dramas has opened a new growth avenue, with heavy users of micro-dramas increasing threefold from December 2024 to April 2025 [7]. - iQIYI's innovative features, such as AI-driven interactions, have enhanced user experience and engagement, contributing to a strong membership revenue stream [9]. Cost Management and R&D - Total costs for Q1 were 5.41 billion RMB, a 4% decrease year-over-year, with content costs down by 7% [8]. - R&D expenses were 410 million RMB, maintaining a stable R&D expense ratio around 6% [8]. Market Position and Future Outlook - iQIYI's membership revenue accounted for 61.2% of total revenue, indicating a strong competitive advantage in content quality [9]. - The company is exploring international markets, with international revenue growing over 30% year-over-year, driven by the popularity of mainland Chinese dramas [11][12]. - iQIYI's strategy includes leveraging content e-commerce to enhance user engagement and drive revenue growth [13][14].