Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing liquidity tightening in the global financial system, highlighting the actions of JPMorgan Chase in reallocating significant reserves to U.S. government bonds in anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: JPMorgan Chase's Actions - Since 2023, JPMorgan Chase has withdrawn nearly $350 billion from its Federal Reserve account, primarily investing in U.S. government bonds to secure higher yields before potential interest rate cuts [2][3]. - The bank's deposits at the Federal Reserve have decreased from $409 billion at the end of 2022 to approximately $63 billion by the third quarter of 2023, while its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities have increased from $231 billion to $450 billion during the same period [2][3]. - This significant withdrawal by JPMorgan Chase has offset the total cash withdrawals of over 4,000 other banks from the Federal Reserve, indicating a potential impact on overall financial system liquidity [3]. Group 2: Shadow Banking System Risks - The shadow banking system, valued at $63 trillion, is emerging as a potential source of instability in global financial markets, particularly under high interest rate conditions [4][5]. - Private credit markets, currently around $1.8 trillion, pose another risk, as a significant portion of this capital is committed to long-term or structured assets lacking active secondary markets, which could lead to liquidity gaps under pressure [5]. - Recent trends in the credit market, including rising yields and falling prices for high-yield bonds, reflect investor concerns regarding non-traditional financing models and high-leverage capital structures [5][6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve has initiated a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program, purchasing $40 billion in short-term government bonds monthly to provide additional liquidity to the market, indicating a balancing act between inflation control and financial stability [5][6]. - Historical precedents show that liquidity strains in the shadow banking sector often precede broader financial market pressures, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [6].

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JPMorgan reiterated in its latest report that it does not expect the stablecoin market to reach a trillion-dollar scale by 2028, projecting a total market capitalization of around $500 billion to $600 billion. The bank said stablecoin growth continues to be driven primarily by crypto trading activity, while the expansion of payment use cases does not necessarily translate into a significant increase in outstanding supply, as higher velocity reduces the amount of stablecoins required. https://t.co/WWbwwZzrdK ...

JPMorgan reclaimed the top spot on the US investment-grade corporate bond league table this year, after being edged out by Bank of America in 2024 https://t.co/c2xqm9AKdo ...

EXCLUSIVE: JPMorgan reiterates it doesn’t see a trillion-dollar stablecoin market by 2028. Here’s why https://t.co/8Y4mBP64qj ...

Core Insights - The S&P 500 is expected to finish 2026 at 7500, indicating a 10% rise from current levels, with two interest-rate cuts anticipated from the Federal Reserve next year [1][4][6] - Prediction markets suggest a higher probability of three interest-rate cuts by December 2026, with expectations of rates decreasing by three-quarters of a percentage point next year [2] - Concerns are rising regarding potentially lower annual returns for stocks, particularly as the S&P 500's valuations have been driven by artificial intelligence-linked stocks [4][5] Interest Rate Expectations - JPMorgan's analysts predict that further interest rate cuts could lead to an 18% gain for the S&P 500, matching its recent year-to-date rise [1][4] - The Federal Open Market Committee would need to implement more than a half-percentage point cut to significantly boost the benchmark stock index [6] Market Dynamics - The average annual return of the S&P 500 has been around 10% since the late 1950s, and JPMorgan's outlook suggests another year of double-digit gains is possible [4][6] - The concept of "FOBO" (Fear of Becoming Obsolete) is driving corporate and government spending on artificial intelligence, which is expected to yield results by the end of 2026 [5]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The target points for MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and MSCI Hong Kong Index are projected to be 100, 5200, and 16000 respectively by 2026, indicating a potential double-digit upside [1] - Four key investment themes for 2026 include "anti-involution," growth in global AI infrastructure spending, the impact of developed countries' easing policies on exports, and the "K-shaped" recovery in consumption benefiting food and high-end consumption sectors [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The semiconductor hardware sector's valuation reached 4 standard deviations above normal earlier this month, indicating overheated sentiment, although it has since corrected to below 3.5 standard deviations [2] - The market has low expectations for the financial sector but high expectations for technology and healthcare, which will need significant growth to meet these high expectations [2] - The company is optimistic about the export prospects of the battery, storage, and photovoltaic industries, which are expected to provide rapid power solutions for data centers, marking them as one of the most promising directions for 2026 [2] Group 3: "Anti-Involution" Focus - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to favor growth-oriented industries with good income prospects, such as batteries and photovoltaics, over cyclical industries closely tied to macroeconomic conditions [3] - The demand for electricity driven by AI data center construction presents a structural opportunity for growth in these sectors [3] Group 4: Consumer Outlook - The company holds a relatively optimistic view on consumer spending, noting that disposable income growth is outpacing consumption growth, indicating households are repairing their balance sheets [4] - The MSCI China Consumer Staples Index has the lowest price-to-earnings ratio and the highest dividend yield compared to the US, Japan, and India, making it an attractive investment [4] - The company suggests a cautious approach to high-valuation sectors while recommending not to underweight low-valuation sectors [4]

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase has appointed Matt Tartaglia as the global head of advisory services [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in US equity markets is attributed to "extreme crowding" in speculative growth stocks, which are at risk of a reversal due to macroeconomic events [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.2%, marking the fourth consecutive day of losses after reaching a record high the previous week [2]. - The selloff has been primarily driven by technology shares as investors shift away from high-performing stocks [2]. Group 2: Speculative Stocks - JPMorgan Chase has identified six stocks as speculative growth plays that are vulnerable to market reversals: Broadcom Inc., Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Expedia Group Inc., Estee Lauder Cos Inc., Invesco Ltd., and Nucor Corp. [1][3]. - These stocks are considered sensitive to market shocks, which increases their risk of sudden repricing [3]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Since December 10, Broadcom shares have decreased by over 21%, Advanced Micro Devices has dropped by 11%, and other identified stocks like Estee Lauder, Invesco, and Nucor have also seen declines, with only Expedia showing a modest increase of about 3% [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - JPMorgan suggests that investors should buy bearish put options on speculative stocks while taking bullish positions on less volatile stocks [5]. - Recommended "low volatility" stocks include Cigna Group, Pfizer Inc., and Verizon Communications Inc. as safer investment alternatives [5].

However, the study in question came from the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA), an advocacy group whose representation of U.S. manufacturers gives it a clear reason to favor protectionist trade policies. The World Trade Institute, an academic research group, said the CPA study used "highly unusual and empirically unsupported" methods to generate the result the authors desired. In other words, the study lacks credibility.In February, the White House published a "fact sheet" crafted to ease concerns ab ...