However, the study in question came from the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA), an advocacy group whose representation of U.S. manufacturers gives it a clear reason to favor protectionist trade policies. The World Trade Institute, an academic research group, said the CPA study used "highly unusual and empirically unsupported" methods to generate the result the authors desired. In other words, the study lacks credibility.In February, the White House published a "fact sheet" crafted to ease concerns ab ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan has launched a permissioned token, JPMD, which is transferable only between whitelisted clients on the JPM Coin platform [1] - The bank's move into crypto is seen as a defense strategy against the growing stablecoin market and increasing investor adoption [2] - JPMorgan's tokenized deposits are linked to its $10 trillion-per-day payments engine, indicating a significant integration of traditional finance with blockchain technology [3] Company Developments - JPMorgan began offering blockchain deposit accounts to institutional clients in 2019 and has now expanded to a public blockchain, Base, driven by customer demand [4] - The introduction of JPM Coin (JPMD) allows for interest-bearing digital claims on existing bank funds, providing a new option for both institutional and retail investors [6] - The bank's tokenized deposits may compete directly with stablecoins, as both serve similar purposes in payments and collateral [12] Industry Trends - The increasing demand for bank deposit products on public chains highlights a shift in the financial landscape, with traditional banks exploring decentralized finance (DeFi) [5][7] - There is a growing interest from crypto companies and digital asset players in using JPM Coin for collateral and margin payments [8][11] - The interoperability challenge between tokenized deposits and traditional stablecoins is acknowledged, with banks needing to find ways to distribute these new products beyond their own ecosystems [14] Risk Management - JPMorgan emphasizes the importance of risk controls when deploying on public blockchains, ensuring that all new products undergo thorough internal governance [16] - The bank maintains control over its smart contracts and token management, which is crucial for mitigating risks associated with public blockchain interactions [17] - The stability and safety of public blockchains over the years have contributed to JPMorgan's confidence in utilizing this technology for future innovations [18]

Core Insights - The liquidity in the U.S. financial system is being significantly impacted by JPMorgan Chase's strategic shift of $350 billion from reserves at the Federal Reserve to U.S. Treasury securities, leading to a contraction in overall system reserves [3] - JPMorgan's holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged from $231 billion to $450 billion, nearly doubling, as the bank aims to lock in future yields before anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - The actions of a single institution, such as JPMorgan, can have substantial effects on overall market liquidity, raising concerns among regulators about financial stability [4][5] Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase has moved $350 billion from Federal Reserve reserves to U.S. Treasury securities, causing total bank deposits at the Fed to drop from $1.9 trillion to $1.6 trillion [3] - Excluding JPMorgan, the remaining 4,000 banks have seen a net increase in reserves, indicating that JPMorgan's actions are counteracting the overall banking sector's liquidity [3] - The bank's strategy is driven by the declining interest on reserves (IORB), which has decreased from a peak of 5.4% [3] Group 2 - JPMorgan's Treasury holdings increased significantly, with market speculation suggesting the bank is extending asset duration and using interest rate swaps to prepare for a low-rate environment [3][4] - The bank received $15 billion in interest from the Federal Reserve in 2024, which constitutes about 25% of its projected annual profit of $58.5 billion [4] - The ongoing debate regarding the Federal Reserve's interest on reserves and its impact on credit availability for the real economy has been reignited, highlighting potential conflicts between individual bank strategies and macroeconomic stability [4][5]

摩根大通方面未对此事置评，也未披露其国债投资组合的期限结构，以及通过利率互换合约管理风险的 具体规模。 （原标题：降息预期拉满，摩根大通从美联储抽走3500亿美元买美债） 【文/羽扇观金工作室】 据英国《金融时报》当地时间12月17日报道，自2023年以来，摩根大通已从其美联储账户中撤出近3500 亿美元现金，并将其中大部分投入美国国债，以试图对冲降息可能带来的利润侵蚀风险，为利率下行周 期提前布局。 行业数据追踪机构BankRegData数据显示，资产规模超4万亿美元的摩根大通，已将其在美联储的账户 余额从2023年末的4090亿美元，大幅削减至今年第三季度的630亿美元。 同期，摩根大通的美国国债持有量从2310亿美元增至4500亿美元，这一操作可使其在美联储降息预期下 提前锁定较高收益率，为后续利率下行做好准备。 这一资金转移反映出，作为美国最大的银行，摩根大通正为一段轻松盈利时期的终结做准备。在此前的 盈利期内，银行将现金存入美联储即可获得利息，同时却只需向多数储户支付近乎为零的利息。 摩根大通美联储现金储备与持有美国国债走势图 《金融时报》 2022年至2023年初，美联储将其基准联邦基金利率目标区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a "spring market" driven by earnings growth in 2026, supported by policies aimed at reducing competition, advancements in AI infrastructure, and a recovering consumer market [1][2]. Market Short-term Style Shift - Morgan Stanley's China stock strategy team has shifted its outlook to positive for MSCI China and CSI 300 indices since January 9, 2023, predicting that the upward trend may continue until 2026 [2]. - A style shift from growth and momentum sectors to value, defensive, and high-dividend sectors is recommended, likely lasting until the end of this year and early next year [2]. - The MSCI China, CSI 300, and MSCI Hong Kong indices are projected to reach 100 points, 5200 points, and 16000 points respectively by 2026, representing potential increases of approximately 22%, 13.5%, and 17.8% [2]. Earnings Growth as Market Driver - Stable growth in earnings per share (EPS) is identified as the core driver for sustained market growth [3]. - The proportion of companies in the MSCI China index with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased since May [3]. - The current net profit margin of Chinese listed companies (excluding the financial sector) is relatively low in the Asia-Pacific region, but the return on equity (ROE) remains strong [3]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign long-term funds have increased their holdings in the Chinese stock market, with a 100 basis point rise in the holdings of global active funds by the end of October [4]. - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: "anti-involution," AI, overseas expansion, and consumption, with real estate as a potential theme [4][5]. Sector-Specific Insights - The "anti-involution" theme focuses on sectors with strong growth prospects, such as batteries and photovoltaics, as well as macro-sensitive sectors like steel and cement [5]. - Companies with overseas operations are expected to gain more attention from global investors due to their balanced business models [5]. - The essential consumer sector in MSCI China is currently undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio below 20, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery [5]. AI Sector Analysis - The assessment of whether the AI sector is in a bubble depends on valuation levels, with recent corrections observed in semiconductor hardware valuations [6]. - The focus is on energy storage companies within AI infrastructure, which are currently in a recovery phase [6]. - The technology sector's performance in the fourth quarter is crucial for sustaining high expectations, with long-term growth dependent on companies improving quality and profitability [6].

【文/羽扇观金工作室】 据英国《金融时报》当地时间12月17日报道，自2023年以来，摩根大通已从其美联储账户中撤出近3500亿美元现金，并将其中大部分投入美国国债， 以试图对冲降息可能带来的利润侵蚀风险，为利率下行周期提前布局。 行业数据追踪机构BankRegData数据显示，资产规模超4万亿美元的摩根大通，已将其在美联储的账户余额从2023年末的4090亿美元，大幅削减至今年 第三季度的630亿美元。 同期，摩根大通的美国国债持有量从2310亿美元增至4500亿美元，这一操作可使其在美联储降息预期下提前锁定较高收益率，为后续利率下行做好准 备。 这一资金转移反映出，作为美国最大的银行，摩根大通正为一段轻松盈利时期的终结做准备。在此前的盈利期内，银行将现金存入美联储即可获得利 息，同时却只需向多数储户支付近乎为零的利息。 2022年至2023年初，美联储将其基准联邦基金利率目标区间从接近零的水平迅速上调至5%以上。随后，美联储于2024年末开始下调这一目标区间，并 已暗示可能进一步降息。本月，美联储已将利率降至三年来的最低水平。 "摩根大通将美联储账户资金转向国债的意图十分明确，"BankRegData创始 ...

（原标题：3?500亿美元大挪移! 摩根大通撤出美联储账户 转向猛买美债 真金白银押注降息延续） 智通财经APP获悉，据美国媒体报道，华尔街金融巨头摩根大通(JPM.US)自2023年以来已从其在美联储 的账户中撤出近3500亿美元现金，并几乎将同等规模的资金用于累计配置美国政府所发行的国债。摩根 大通此举可谓旨在为利率长期下行以及长期较低利率做准备工作，以对冲未来利率下行对净利息收入 (NII/NIM)的挤压，对于有着"全球资产定价之锚"称号的10年期美债收益率，以及更长期限的美债收益 率的下行趋势而言可谓边际利好。 有媒体援引行业数据追踪机构BankRegData汇编的数据报道称，这家资产规模超过4万亿美元的超级商 业银行，将其在美联储账户的余额从2023年末的4090亿美元降至2025年第三季度的630亿美元。 与此同时，媒体报道称，摩根大通将其美国国债市场的持有量从2310亿美元大幅提高至4500亿美元，这 也意味着即使美联储在特朗普提名的鸽派主席主导下持续下调利率也能确保较高收益率。 因此摩根大通在用实际的资产配置"押注降息大概率还会继续下去，至少推动短端美债收益率回落持 续"。从"长期限美债收益率 ...

在2022年及2023年初，美联储为应对40年来最高通胀而迅速将利率上调至5%以上。自2024年末开始， 随着通胀压力有所缓解，美联储的政策制定机构FOMC开启降息进程。上周，在越来越多美联储官员对 美国国内劳动力市场走弱的担忧情绪之下，美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%—3.75%，为 三年来最低水平。 华尔街各大银行业巨头们在美联储的准备金余额会按IORB(Interest on Reserve Balances)计息，IORB是 美联储实施货币政策、影响短端利率的核心工具之一。 当政策利率下调时，IORB通常也会下调，这意味着"躺在美联储账户里的现金"收益会跟着下降。美联 储2025年12月10日的FOMC声明显示，联邦基金利率目标区间已显著降至3.50%–3.75%。所以，摩根大 通把"高利率时期很好赚"的准备金资产，换成能在更长时间锁定高收益的国债资产，是很标准的"降息 下的资产再配置"。 因此摩根大通在用实际的资产配置"押注降息大概率还会继续下去，至少推动短端美债收益率回落持 续"。从"长期限美债收益率"角度而言，则可谓边际性质的利好。 据美国媒体报道，华尔街金融巨头摩根大通(JPM.U ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase has withdrawn nearly $350 billion in cash from its Federal Reserve account since 2023, reallocating a similar amount into U.S. government bonds to prepare for a long-term decline in interest rates, which is expected to benefit net interest income [1][2] Group 1: JPMorgan's Cash Withdrawal and Bond Investment - JPMorgan has reduced its Federal Reserve account balance from $409 billion at the end of 2023 to $63 billion by Q3 2025 [1] - The bank has increased its holdings in U.S. Treasury securities from $231 billion to $450 billion, indicating a strategy to secure higher yields even as the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [1][2] Group 2: Interest Rate Trends and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates above 5% in response to the highest inflation in 40 years, but is expected to begin lowering rates by the end of 2024 as inflation pressures ease [2] - The target range for the federal funds rate has been lowered to 3.50%–3.75%, the lowest level in three years, which impacts the interest earned on reserves held at the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Large banks like JPMorgan increasing their Treasury holdings can create sustained buying pressure, which may raise bond prices and lower yields, benefiting long-term Treasury yields [3] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower rates twice in 2026, totaling a 50 basis point reduction, while JPMorgan's economists predict only one rate cut [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase's significant asset reallocation is revealing part of the recent market liquidity tightening, as the bank withdraws substantial cash reserves from the Federal Reserve to invest in U.S. Treasury bonds, raising concerns about potential liquidity issues similar to the 2019 repo crisis [1][8]. Group 1: JPMorgan's Actions and Market Impact - JPMorgan has reduced its deposits at the Federal Reserve from $409 billion at the end of 2023 to $63 billion in Q3 2024, withdrawing nearly $350 billion [1]. - The bank's holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased from $231 billion to $450 billion during the same period, indicating a strategic shift to hedge against declining interest rates [1][2]. - This withdrawal is significant enough to offset the total deposits of over 4,000 other banks at the Federal Reserve, leading to a net outflow of system reserves [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Environment and Strategy - JPMorgan's asset allocation shift is a direct response to the changing interest rate environment, as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rates by the end of 2024 [3]. - The bank aims to lock in higher yields from Treasury bonds to protect its future profitability amid declining rates, contrasting its previous strategy during the low-rate period of 2020-2021 [2][3]. Group 3: Liquidity Concerns and Historical Context - The significant withdrawal of funds by JPMorgan has led to a contraction in the total reserve levels of the banking system, raising concerns about market liquidity [7]. - Observers are drawing parallels between JPMorgan's current actions and the 2019 repo crisis, where a similar withdrawal led to liquidity issues and prompted the Federal Reserve to initiate a form of quantitative easing [8]. Group 4: Controversy Over Reserve Interest Payments - The large sums received by JPMorgan from the Federal Reserve in interest payments on reserves have reignited debates about the effectiveness of this policy, with critics arguing it leads to idle funds rather than stimulating the real economy [9]. - In 2024, JPMorgan is projected to receive $15 billion in interest income, contributing to a total profit of $58.5 billion, highlighting the financial implications of the Fed's reserve interest policy [9].