Investment Rating - The investment rating for Li Ning is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 20.7, maintained for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - Li Ning's focus on technological innovation is a key driver for the brand's growth, highlighted by the recent 2024 Li Ning Technology Conference showcasing its advancements in sports technology [1]. - The company has introduced six unique innovative technologies, including Carbon Core and GCU, which significantly enhance product performance and athlete experience [1]. - Revenue projections for Li Ning are estimated at RMB 29.3 billion, RMB 32.1 billion, and RMB 35.0 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of RMB 3.4 billion, RMB 3.9 billion, and RMB 4.4 billion [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Li Ning has a total of 6,214 main brand stores as of March 31, 2024, with a net decrease of 26 stores compared to the end of 2023 [1]. - The company is committed to enhancing its logistics network, which has improved the quality and efficiency of direct deliveries to retail and wholesale stores [1]. Financial Performance - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.3, RMB 1.5, and RMB 1.7 for the years 2024 to 2026, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 13, and 11 respectively [2]. - The company has maintained its profit forecasts, indicating confidence in its operational strategies and market positioning [2]. Market Strategy - Li Ning is focusing on a "single brand, multi-category, multi-channel" strategy to strengthen its brand presence and retail operational capabilities [2]. - The company is enhancing its digital logistics and supply chain transparency, which is expected to improve overall customer experience and operational efficiency [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company possesses a rare professional sports gene and industry-leading product capabilities. With 2024 being a significant year for sports, the launch of multiple technological platforms and new products is expected to drive revenue growth. The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 3.38 billion, 3.75 billion, and 4.14 billion RMB, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 15, 13, and 12 times [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The report discusses the launch of three industry-leading innovations at the "2024 Li Ning Technology Show," including the "Absolute Shadow 3," "Dragon Sparrow," and "Anti-Rain Double Permeable Nano Technology" [6]. Product Innovations - The "Absolute Shadow 3" is expected to be released soon, featuring three major upgrades that enhance rebound strength, energy efficiency, and stability. The "Dragon Sparrow" is positioned as the lightest marathon racing shoe in the industry, weighing under 89g for size 8.5, incorporating advanced lightweight materials [7]. Market Expectations - With the upcoming Paris Olympics in July 2024, the company plans to launch new products and marketing initiatives starting in Q2. The report anticipates that the second half of the year will see better revenue and same-store sales growth compared to the first half, driven by new product launches and marketing efforts [8]. Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates a steady increase in revenue from 14.457 billion RMB in 2020 to an expected 35.370 billion RMB in 2026, with a projected net profit growth from 4.011 billion RMB in 2022 to 4.144 billion RMB in 2026. The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 16 in 2023 to 12 in 2026 [9].

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call is associated with Guohai Securities, focusing on investment suitability management for clients [1] Core Points and Arguments - The views expressed by the conference guests are personal opinions and do not represent Guohai Securities' stance [1] - The conference does not constitute any investment advice [1] - Recording or forwarding the meeting is strictly prohibited, with legal consequences for violations [1] - Guohai Securities reserves all legal rights regarding the information shared during the conference [1] - Guohai Securities and its employees are not liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the conference information [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on risk awareness in investment practices is highlighted, indicating a cautious approach to investment [1]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Hold" [1][11]. Core Views - The growth momentum of the company is weaker compared to its competitors, leading to a diminished valuation attractiveness. The target price is adjusted to HKD 23.0, reflecting a potential upside of 10.0% from the current price of HKD 20.9 [1][4]. Summary by Sections Short-term Performance - The company's online revenue growth in Q1 2024 is at the lower end of 20% year-on-year, similar to Anta, while offline revenue performance lags behind major competitors. Wholesale store revenue has decreased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, and direct retail store revenue has declined similarly [2][3]. Market Share and Brand Strength - Despite strong growth in the running category, the basketball category has seen a year-on-year decline in revenue. Competitors like Anta and 361 Degrees are investing heavily in basketball, suggesting that the company is losing market share in this segment [2][3]. - The company's brand strength may be under pressure, as recent high-profile marketing efforts have not significantly enhanced its brand or product appeal. The company has been lackluster in marketing and new product launches, raising concerns about its competitive edge [2][3]. Market Expectations and Valuation - The market's expectations for the company's net profit in 2024 appear overly optimistic, with significant downside risks. Investors may be underestimating the impact of additional property depreciation, one-time profits from joint ventures last year, and declining interest income on the company's profit margins for 2024 [2][3]. - The current valuation at 15x 2024 PE does not present a compelling investment case, given the projected compound annual growth rate of 8.3% for net profit from 2023 to 2026 [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 27,598 million in 2023 to RMB 28,952 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Net profit is expected to slightly increase from RMB 3,187 million in 2023 to RMB 3,218 million in 2024, a growth of 1.0% [3][7]. - The report highlights a recovery in channel inventory and a healthier inventory age structure, with significant improvements in retail discounts across various channels compared to the second half of 2023 [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 all-channel revenue data was released, showing a low single-digit year-on-year growth, which is in line with expectations. The revenue from direct sales, wholesale, and e-commerce channels experienced a mid-single-digit growth, a mid-single-digit decline, and a low 20%-30% growth respectively. Same-store sales showed a low single-digit decline for direct sales, a mid-double-digit decline for wholesale, and a low 20%-30% growth for e-commerce [5]. - E-commerce channels performed well, driven by outlet stores boosting direct sales growth. The e-commerce revenue grew in the low 20%-30% range year-on-year, attributed to a low base in Q1 2023 and the high growth of emerging e-commerce platforms [5]. - Inventory levels improved year-on-year, but discount levels remain to be repaired. The company’s all-channel inventory turnover ratio is slightly above 4, showing improvement. However, with revenue growth lagging behind peers, the expected offline discount level is in the high 60%-70% range, which is still weaker than competitors [5]. - The running shoe category continues to see high growth, while the basketball segment requires adjustments. The classic running series products drove sales, with expected year-on-year revenue growth of over 20% for the running category. However, the basketball shoe market remains weak, posing challenges for the company [5]. - In the short term, monthly retail improvements need time to validate, with expectations of continued revenue weakness in Q2 due to high base effects. However, as the retail base decreases in H2, there is potential for revenue acceleration through store transformations and inventory management [5]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.24 billion, 3.65 billion, and 4.05 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 2%, 13%, and 11% respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are 14, 13, and 12, indicating that the valuation is at a bottom position [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$26.55, indicating a potential upside of 33% from the current price of HK$19.90 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The report projects a revenue growth of 5.2% year-on-year for 2024, reaching RMB 29.03 billion, and a net profit growth of 5.1% to RMB 3.35 billion, maintaining a net profit margin of 11.5% [3][4]. - The company is focusing on growth drivers such as running shoes and basketball products, with plans to expand its product lines and optimize store configurations in lower-tier cities [3][4]. - The report slightly adjusts the target price down by 0.5% but maintains the earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected revenue growth rates of 5.2%, 6.0%, and 5.8% respectively [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 29,033 million, with a gross profit margin of 49.6% [5][6]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 3,349 million, with an EPS of RMB 1.30 [5][6]. - The report anticipates a stable management expense ratio of 4.6% and an increase in sales expense ratio to 33.3% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - Li Ning plans to launch new products in the running and basketball categories, targeting both high-end and value segments to capture market share [3][4]. - The company aims to open 75 new stores in 2024, focusing on lower-tier cities while closing underperforming stores in higher-tier cities [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a P/E ratio of 17x for 2025, with a slight adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [4][6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is RMB 3,673 million and RMB 4,023 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.42 and RMB 1.56 [5][6].

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call is associated with Guohai Securities, focusing on investment suitability management for clients. Core Points and Arguments - The content of the conference call is intended solely for clients who meet Guohai Securities' investment suitability management requirements and invited clients [1] - Guohai Securities disclaims any investment advice or decisions made based on the conference call content, indicating that it does not bear responsibility for any investment decisions made by clients [1] - The conference call serves as a relay of certain viewpoints from a previously published research report by Guohai Securities, reflecting the judgment of the research personnel on the day the complete report was released [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The conference call emphasizes that participation does not imply any investment recommendations or guarantees from Guohai Securities or its employees [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 revenue met expectations, with improvements in retail discounts and low-end sales [6] - The company is expected to see a net profit of 3.34 billion, 3.84 billion, and 4.35 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.3, 1.5, and 1.7 [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 14.0, 12.1, and 10.7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2022 was 25.803 billion, increasing to 27.598 billion in 2023, and projected to reach 29.297 billion in 2024 [7] - The net profit for 2022 was 4.064 billion, which decreased to 3.187 billion in 2023, with a forecasted increase to 3.339 billion in 2024 [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 48.4% in 2023 to 49.0% by 2026 [7] Sales Channels and Performance - Online sales saw a growth of 20-30% in Q1 2024, driven by platforms like Douyin and Dewu, while offline sales experienced a decline in low-end sales [6] - The company closed 26 stores in Q1 2024, maintaining a net opening expectation for the year [6] Inventory and Discounts - The company reported improvements in discount levels, with an overall discount of 60% in offline channels, down from 60% in the previous year [6] - The inventory turnover ratio remains healthy, with a ratio of 4-4.5 across all channels in Q1 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in overall retail sales for Q1 2024, with improvements in inventory and discount levels [3][4] - The company is a leading domestic sportswear brand, facing challenges in 2023 due to inventory pressures and issues related to unauthorized sales, but has shown signs of recovery in early 2024 [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 25,803 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.31%. For 2023, it is projected to be 27,598 million, with a growth of 6.96%. The forecast for 2024 is 29,191 million, reflecting a growth of 5.77% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 4,064 million, with a decline of 21.58% in 2023 to 3,187 million. The forecast for 2024 is 3,390 million, indicating a recovery with a growth of 6.37% [2] Retail and Sales Performance - For Q1 2024, the company's overall retail sales (excluding young segment) showed a low single-digit year-on-year growth, while same-store sales declined in the mid-single digits [3] - The number of stores as of Q1 2024 was 6,214, with a net increase of 8 stores compared to Q1 2023 [3] Inventory and Discounts - The inventory turnover ratio improved to just over 4 months in Q1 2024, compared to 4-4.5 months in Q1 2023, indicating healthier inventory levels [4] - Discounts for both online and offline channels showed a low single-digit improvement year-on-year, with offline discounts averaging around 60% [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains a revenue growth guidance of mid-single digits for 2024, with a profit margin expected to remain in the low double digits [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted down to 33.9 billion and 37.8 billion respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 14/12 for the respective years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 28.3 [2][4]. Core Insights - Li Ning's Q1 2024 performance aligns with market expectations, with overall retail sales showing low single-digit growth year-on-year, driven by a strong e-commerce segment that grew by 20-30% [1][2]. - The company is expected to return to stable growth as inventory levels normalize, and it plans to launch marketing activities in conjunction with the upcoming Paris Olympics to enhance brand visibility [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the expected EPS is projected at HKD 1.30, with forecasts of HKD 1.45 and HKD 1.59 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2][3]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 27,598 million in 2023 to RMB 29,257 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 6.0% [3][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring items) is expected to recover from RMB 3,046 million in 2023 to RMB 3,372 million in 2024, marking a growth of 10.7% [3][9]. Channel Performance - E-commerce channels outperformed expectations, with significant growth across various platforms, including over 100% growth on the Dewu platform and more than 20% on Douyin [1][2]. - Offline channels experienced a low single-digit decline, with direct sales showing mid-single-digit growth while wholesale channels faced a mid-single-digit decline [1][2]. Inventory and Discounts - The inventory turnover for offline channels is reported at 4-4.5 months, with 80% of inventory being new products, indicating a healthy inventory status [1][2]. - Retail discounts have improved year-on-year, with an overall discount rate of approximately 60% [1][2]. Store Count and Sales - As of the end of Q1, the total number of sales points decreased by 26 to 6,214, with retail points increasing by 1 to 1,499 and wholesale points decreasing by 27 to 4,715 [1][2]. - Same-store sales showed a low single-digit decline across offline channels, while e-commerce channels recorded a growth of 20-30% [1][2].