Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a successful wave of PC upgrades driven by Windows 11, with stable profit margins reflecting supply chain resilience. Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY2026-2028 have been raised, indicating strong growth potential [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In FY2026Q2, the company reported revenue of $20.452 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and a non-GAAP net profit of $512 million, up 25.2%, with a net profit margin of 2.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The IDG segment generated revenue of $15.11 billion, growing 11.8% year-on-year, with Lenovo's PC shipment growth outpacing the industry at 17.3% compared to 9.4% [1]. - The ISG segment achieved revenue of $4.087 billion, a 23.7% year-on-year increase, with strong demand for AI servers, although it reported an operating profit margin of -2.7%, indicating a narrowing loss rate [1]. - The SSG segment's revenue reached $2.556 billion, up 18.1% year-on-year, with deferred revenue of $3.6 billion, reflecting a 17% increase and enhancing business predictability [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Resilience - The company demonstrates strong supply chain resilience, effectively managing price fluctuations in components due to its significant purchasing power and superior bargaining capabilities compared to peers [2]. - The stable performance of the IDG segment and the narrowing loss rate in the ISG segment serve as evidence of the company's ability to adapt to cost impacts through product and customer structure adjustments [2].

Core Insights - The company reported strong mid-year performance for FY2026, with revenue reaching $39.282 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at $850 million, up 40.5% [1] IDG Segment - The IDG business generated $28.57 billion in revenue for FY2026H1, reflecting a 14.6% year-on-year growth, with operating profit increasing by 13% and an operating margin of 7.2% [1] - The global market share for the company increased by 1.8 percentage points to 25.6%, achieving a historical high, and it leads the global Windows AI PC market [1] - In China, AI laptops with five key features accounted for 30% of total shipments, with higher average selling prices and profit margins for high-end products [1] - The smartphone segment saw strong performance from high-end models like edge and razr, with new device activations reaching record highs [1] ISG Segment - The ISG business reported $8.38 billion in revenue for FY2026H1, a 29.6% year-on-year increase, driven by cloud and enterprise infrastructure [2] - AI server business benefited from global AI training and inference demand, achieving high double-digit year-on-year revenue growth [2] - The Neptune liquid cooling system showed impressive performance, with first-quarter revenue growing double digits and second-quarter revenue increasing by triple digits, supported by over 100 patents [2] SSG Segment - The SSG business achieved a record revenue of $4.81 billion for FY2026H1, up 18.9% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 22% [2] - Revenue from operational services and project solutions increased to 58.9% of SSG business, marking a historical high [2] - TruScale platform orders saw triple-digit year-on-year growth, driven by the success of Device as a Service (DaaS) and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) initiatives [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company raised its net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 to $1.87 billion, $2.09 billion, and $2.33 billion respectively, up from previous estimates [3] - The price-to-earnings ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are projected at 9.0, 8.1, and 7.2 times respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a record revenue of 146.4 billion RMB for Q2 of the fiscal year 2025/26, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit rose by 25% to 3.66 billion RMB, indicating a faster growth rate compared to revenue [1] - The CEO emphasized the company's strategic clarity, operational excellence, and continuous innovation as key drivers behind the record performance [1] Revenue Breakdown - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated 108.1 billion RMB, a 12% increase, with PC market share surpassing 25% for the first time [1] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) achieved approximately 29.3 billion RMB in revenue, up 24%, with significant growth in AI infrastructure [1] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) reported nearly 20% revenue growth, marking the 18th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [1] AI Business Growth - AI-related revenue now accounts for 30% of total revenue, a 13 percentage point increase year-on-year, highlighting AI's role as a core growth driver [2] - Lenovo's AI PC market share in the Windows AI PC segment is 31.1%, reinforcing user recognition of Lenovo's AI terminal experience [2] - AI server revenue saw high double-digit growth, with liquid cooling technology revenue increasing by 154% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The CEO stated the company will leverage its unique "global resources, local delivery" model to navigate uncertainties and seize opportunities presented by hybrid AI [3]

投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/11/21 | 初敏（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 9.680 | chumin@kysec.cn | yangzhe@kysec.cn | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 13.600/6.570 | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790524100001 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,200.77 | | | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 1,200.77 | | | | 总股本(亿股) | 124.05 | | | | 流通港股(亿股) | 124.05 | | | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 44.01 | | | win11 换机潮如期兑现，利润率稳健体现供应链韧性 win11 换机潮、AI PC 渗透率提升如期兑现，三大业务利润率稳定验证公司供应 链的韧性，我们上调 FY2026-2028 财年 non-gaap 归母净利润至 17.6/20.7/23.6 亿 美元（前次为 16.7/19.6/23.0 亿美元），同比增长 21.8%/ ...

同时认为，联想集团AI基础设施业务强劲增长，今财季内，集团云基础设施业务收入创同期历史新 高，AI服务器收入亦实现高双位数增长。 中金发布研报称，维持联想集团(00992)目标价14.8港元及"跑赢行业"评级，仍有52%的上行空间，暂维 持2026-2027财年盈测不变，整体业绩超该行预期，主因三大业务集团及全区域市场均实现双位数收入 增长，AI相关收入业务收入占比同比升13个百分点至30%，及运营利润率的提升。 面对上游核心元器件涨价，该行认为，集团在上游储存供应紧张、涨价压力下，拥有灵活的供应链管 理、与关键元器件供应商长期合作关系，也建立了灵活的价格调整机制，具较强的风险吸收能力。集团 亦对2026下半财年PC收入实现双位数的同比增长有信心。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains Lenovo Group's target price at HKD 14.8 with an "outperform" rating, indicating a 52% upside potential, while keeping the earnings forecast for FY2026-2027 unchanged due to overall performance exceeding expectations [1] Group Performance - Lenovo's three major business groups and all regional markets achieved double-digit revenue growth [1] - AI-related revenue increased by 13 percentage points year-on-year to account for 30% of total revenue [1] - The operating profit margin has improved [1] Supply Chain Management - The company possesses strong risk absorption capabilities due to flexible supply chain management and long-term relationships with key component suppliers [1] - Lenovo has established a flexible pricing adjustment mechanism to cope with rising prices and supply shortages of core components [1] Future Outlook - Lenovo is confident in achieving double-digit year-on-year growth in PC revenue for the second half of FY2026 [1] - The AI infrastructure business is experiencing robust growth, with cloud infrastructure revenue reaching a historical high for the quarter [1] - AI server revenue also saw high double-digit growth [1]

Lenovo Group Conference Call Summary Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Lenovo Group - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focusing on personal computers (PCs), infrastructure solutions, and artificial intelligence (AI) Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Lenovo achieved record revenue of **$20.5 billion** in Q2 2025, a **14.6%** year-over-year increase [3] - Adjusted net profit rose **25%** to **$512 million**, with an adjusted net profit margin expanding to **2.5%** [3] - Operating cash flow reached **$1.5 billion**, and free cash flow increased to **$1.1 billion** [10] Business Segment Performance - **PC Business**: Revenue exceeded **$15 billion**, growing **12%** year-over-year, with a market share of **25.6%**, a historical high [2][4] - **Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG)**: Revenue grew **24%** to **$4.1 billion**, driven by new customer acquisition in cloud services and enterprise transformation [2][9] - **Solutions and Services Group (SSG)**: Achieved **18%** year-over-year growth, marking the **18th consecutive quarter** of double-digit growth, with an operating margin exceeding **22%** [2][8] AI and Innovation - AI-related revenue accounted for **30%** of total revenue, highlighting the company's focus on AI integration [2][3] - Lenovo is launching a personalized AI assistant and super agent, set to be showcased at Tech World on January 6, 2026 [6] Market Outlook - Lenovo anticipates continued double-digit growth in the PC business over the next **2-4 years** and expects the smartphone market to grow faster than the overall market [2][16][17] - The company plans to increase investments in the B2B sector and accelerate high-end product promotion [17] Geographic Performance - All reported geographic regions experienced double-digit revenue growth, demonstrating Lenovo's strong presence in **180 markets** [7] Supply Chain and Cost Management - Lenovo has implemented strict financial management, resulting in a **31%** reduction in adjusted net financing costs [10] - The company is well-positioned to manage memory price increases due to its scale and long-term contracts with suppliers [15] ESG Achievements - Lenovo received global recognition in ESG, ranking **8th** in Gartner's top 25 supply chains and being included in the World Economic Forum's global lighthouse network [13] Future Strategies - Lenovo's mixed AI strategy focuses on AI factories and solutions to accelerate AI deployment for clients [19][20] - The MEA manufacturing center is on track for large-scale production by mid-2026, expected to significantly contribute to financial performance [22] Competitive Advantages - Lenovo leads the Windows IPC market with over **30%** share, attributed to innovation, rapid market entry, and localized operations [25] Additional Important Insights - The Neptune liquid cooling system has seen a **150%** increase in sales, reflecting the demand for high-performance infrastructure [23] - The company is optimistic about the overall server market, expecting high single-digit growth driven by AI democratization [24]

Lenovo Group Conference Call Summary Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Lenovo Group - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focusing on personal and enterprise intelligent devices, AI infrastructure, and cloud services Key Points and Arguments Overall Performance - Lenovo Group reported robust revenue growth with all business segments and regions achieving double-digit growth - AI-related business revenue accounted for 30% of total revenue, a year-on-year increase of 13% [2][3] Personal Intelligent Devices - Lenovo is set to launch a personal super intelligent device on January 6, 2026, as part of its multi-end strategy - IDG (Intelligent Device Group) revenue grew by 12% year-on-year, with global PC market share surpassing 25% - AI terminal devices now represent 36% of IDG's revenue, up 17% year-on-year [2][4][5] Enterprise Intelligent Solutions - The infrastructure market is shifting towards local data centers and edge-side inference, leading to a 24% year-on-year revenue increase in SGG (Solutions Group) - Strong order reserves for AI infrastructure, with SSG (Solutions Services Group) achieving double-digit growth for 18 consecutive quarters and an operating profit margin exceeding 22% [2][6] Supply Chain Management - Lenovo, as one of the largest buyers in the industry, has secured sufficient supply through long-term contracts to mitigate the impact of rising memory prices and supply shortages - The company has implemented strategies to ensure competitive costs while maintaining supply stability [2][7][8][9] Future Revenue Expectations - For the upcoming third fiscal quarter, Lenovo anticipates mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth, with expectations of double-digit growth in PC and SG businesses in the second half of the 2025-2026 fiscal year - Overall revenue is projected to achieve low double-digit growth, with net profit also expected to grow by double digits [2][10] Global Market Performance - All major regional markets, including China, Asia-Pacific, Americas, and EMEA, have shown double-digit growth, providing solid support for the company's business [2][11] Supply Chain and Cost Control Strategies - Lenovo has a mature and flexible supply chain management mechanism, locking in supply for 2026 to mitigate potential shortages - The company employs a pricing adjustment mechanism to manage cost pressures without significantly impacting shipment volumes [2][12] AI Developments - Lenovo is actively advancing in the AI sector, with separate accounting for personal AI and enterprise intelligence revenue, indicating a focus on developing these business segments [2][13] - The company has made significant progress in mixed AI applications, with the Tianxi AI system leading in the AI PC market [2][14] PC Market Outlook - The global PC market outlook is optimistic, driven by the end of Windows 10 support and a natural upgrade cycle involving approximately 400 million devices - AIPC (AI PC) features are driving demand, with market share exceeding 30% and contributing to increased pricing and profitability [2][15] ISG Business Performance - ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) revenue structure shows CSP (Cloud Service Provider) clients accounting for about 70% and enterprise clients for 30%, with enterprise client growth outpacing CSP [2][16][17] Liquid Cooling Technology - Lenovo has developed advanced liquid cooling technology, significantly reducing energy consumption and enhancing efficiency [2][19] Market Position in China - Lenovo has achieved rapid growth in the Chinese market, increasing its market share from 4.7% in 2023 to 11-12% in 2024, positioning itself as the second-largest CSP provider in the country [2][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992.HK) [1] Core Insights - Lenovo Group's FY2026H1 performance shows revenue growth driven by AI, with total revenue reaching $39.282 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at $850 million, up 40.5% year-on-year [8] - The company benefits from strong performance across its three main business segments, with AI driving revenue and profit growth, enhancing overall competitiveness [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY2024A: $56.864 billion - FY2025A: $69.077 billion - FY2026E: $76.417 billion - FY2027E: $83.943 billion - FY2028E: $90.407 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: FY2025A +21.48%, FY2026E +10.63%, FY2027E +9.85%, FY2028E +7.70% [1][9] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - FY2024A: $1.011 billion - FY2025A: $1.384 billion - FY2026E: $1.868 billion - FY2027E: $2.089 billion - FY2028E: $2.332 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: FY2025A +37.01%, FY2026E +34.93%, FY2027E +11.84%, FY2028E +11.64% [1][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY2024A: $0.08 - FY2025A: $0.11 - FY2026E: $0.15 - FY2027E: $0.17 - FY2028E: $0.19 [1] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratios**: - FY2026E: 9.04 - FY2027E: 8.08 - FY2028E: 7.24 [1] Business Segment Performance - **IDG (Intelligent Devices Group)**: - Revenue of $28.57 billion in FY2026H1, up 14.6% year-on-year, with a strong operating profit margin of 7.2% [8] - **ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group)**: - Revenue of $8.38 billion in FY2026H1, up 29.6% year-on-year, driven by demand for AI infrastructure [8] - **SSG (Solutions and Services Group)**: - Revenue reached $4.81 billion in FY2026H1, up 18.9% year-on-year, with a high operating profit margin of 22% [8]

Core Insights - Lenovo reported 2QFY26 revenue of $20.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.7% [1] - Non-HKFRS net profit reached $512 million, up 25.2% year-on-year, surpassing the company's previous guidance midpoint of approximately 19% [1] - The company disclosed that AI-related business revenue accounted for 30% of total revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13 percentage points [1] Group 1: PC and IDG Performance - IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) revenue grew by 11.8% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 60%, demonstrating resilience amid rising storage costs [2] - Lenovo's global PC market share increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to 25.6%, marking a record high and leading the second-place competitor by 5.7 percentage points [2] - Driven by hybrid AI, PC revenue rose by 17% year-on-year, with AI PC penetration increasing by 16 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for 33% of total PC shipments [2] Group 2: ISG and SSG Performance - ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) revenue increased by 23.7% year-on-year, driven by demand for cloud infrastructure and enterprise solutions [3] - AI server business recorded high double-digit revenue growth, with strong order reserves [3] - Neptune liquid cooling technology revenue surged by 154% year-on-year, reinforcing the company's leadership in energy-efficient AI infrastructure [3] - SSG (Solutions and Services Group) revenue grew by 18.3% year-on-year, maintaining double-digit growth for the 18th consecutive quarter, with an operating profit margin exceeding 22% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The company expects to leverage its scale and supply chain advantages to mitigate the impact of rising storage costs, with AI anticipated to drive stable revenue growth in IDG [2] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 14.0 (previously HKD 16.0), corresponding to a 14.6 times FY2026E PE, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [3]