Core Viewpoint - Miniso (09896.HK) plans to spin off its toy brand TOP TOY for an independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to better reflect TOP TOY's value and attract investors interested in the high-growth opportunities within the toy industry [1][2]. Company Overview - TOP TOY was incubated by Miniso in 2020, with Miniso holding approximately 86.9% of TOP TOY's issued share capital, making it the controlling shareholder [4]. - Unlike its competitor Pop Mart, which focuses on blind box products, TOP TOY offers a broader product range, including figurines, 3D models, and plush toys [4]. IP Strategy - TOP TOY's IP strategy relies heavily on a combination of licensed and proprietary IP, with licensed IP currently dominating. The company aims to creatively redevelop licensed IP to unlock new commercial potential [6]. - The company has increased its proprietary IP from 8 to 17 through acquisitions, while maintaining 43 licensed IPs, indicating room for growth in its overall IP portfolio [7]. Market Position and Growth - As of June 30, 2023, TOP TOY operated 293 stores globally, significantly fewer than Pop Mart's 571 stores. TOP TOY's registered membership exceeded 10 million, while Pop Mart added 13.04 million new members in the same period [8]. - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 679 million, 1.461 billion, and 1.909 billion RMB, respectively, with a notable increase in revenue in the first half of 2023 reaching 1.36 billion RMB [11][12]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's gross margin for the first half of 2023 was 32.4%, significantly lower than Pop Mart's 70.3% and Blok's 48.4%, indicating limited pricing power due to a lack of strong proprietary IP [13]. - The company reported a net profit of 180 million RMB in the first half of 2023, following profits of 212 million RMB in 2022 and 294 million RMB in 2024 [12]. Industry Context - The Chinese toy market is projected to grow from 20.7 billion RMB in 2019 to 58.7 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% [10]. - Despite the rapid growth of TOP TOY, it faces challenges in IP development and profitability compared to established players like Pop Mart, which has demonstrated stronger growth through its successful IP and fan economy [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown signs of operational improvement in its domestic business, with a notable increase in overseas market performance and the TOP TOY brand continuing to grow rapidly [6] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 9.39 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.91 billion, down 22.6% year-on-year [6] - The company is shifting its strategy from relying on external licensed IP to a dual approach of "licensing + proprietary," enhancing its brand and product margins [6] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024A: 16,994 million - 2025E: 21,083 million - 2026E: 25,190 million - 2027E: 29,658 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 48.1% for 2024, 24.1% for 2025, 19.5% for 2026, and 17.7% for 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2024A: 2,618 million - 2025E: 2,421 million - 2026E: 3,398 million - 2027E: 4,240 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 48.0% for 2024, -7.5% for 2025, 40.3% for 2026, and 24.8% for 2027 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company has expanded its store count in mainland China to 4,305 by the end of June 2025, with a net increase of 190 stores compared to the previous year [6] - The overseas market has also seen significant growth, with a net increase of 554 stores, bringing the total to 3,307 [6] - The TOP TOY brand has shown impressive growth, with a net increase of 98 stores globally, reaching a total of 293 [6] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company's stock is set at 53.82 HKD, with the current price at 43.82 HKD [2] - The company is expected to achieve a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2026, based on comparable company valuations [6]

Core Insights - MINISO LAND, the first store of MINISO in Northwest China, opened in Xi'an, featuring an immersive three-story space and over 100 IP products, aiming to create a new urban landmark that integrates consumption, social interaction, and cultural experiences [1][2] - The store offers more than 6,000 product types, with over 80% being IP products from popular franchises such as Sanrio, Disney, and Pokémon, highlighting the brand's focus on IP-driven retail [1][2] - The opening of the Xi'an store represents a significant step in MINISO's strategy to establish a "super IP + super store + super experience" model, enhancing commercial upgrades and trendsetting in the retail space [2] Company Strategy - MINISO is innovating retail spaces by merging IP content with unique designs, transforming traditional retail into a "global IP showcase" that enhances consumer experience [2] - The company employs a dual strategy of "top-tier licensed IP + exclusive proprietary IP" to expand its IP ecosystem, collaborating with international giants while also nurturing original IP [2] - The successful performance of MINISO LAND stores, such as the flagship store in Shanghai achieving over 100 million yuan in sales within nine months, validates the effectiveness of its IP-driven business model [2]

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY, a subsidiary of Miniso, is pursuing an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a fundraising target of approximately $300 million, aiming for independent growth while still heavily reliant on Miniso for revenue [2][5][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - TOP TOY has rapidly expanded since opening its first store in 2020, reaching 299 stores by September 2025, and plans to enter international markets by Q4 2024 [3][9]. - The company achieved a GMV of 2.4 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 67.7% from 2022 to 2024 [9]. - In the first half of 2025, TOP TOY's sales revenue reached 1.36 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.5% [10]. Group 2: Revenue Sources - Miniso remains TOP TOY's largest customer, contributing 2.5 billion RMB, 7.8 billion RMB, and 9.2 billion RMB in revenue for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, accounting for 36.8%, 53.5%, and 48.3% of total revenue [7][8]. - The proportion of revenue from self-operated stores has remained stable at around 9% to 7.5% from 2022 to 2024, while sales to distributors have increased, with over half of revenue coming from this channel [21][22]. Group 3: Product Development and IP Strategy - TOP TOY focuses on three main product categories: figurines, 3D assembly models, and plush toys, with figurines generating 12.56 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, accounting for 68.8% of total revenue [14][16]. - The company has developed a multi-layered IP matrix consisting of 17 self-owned IPs, 43 licensed IPs, and 600 third-party IPs, although self-owned IPs still represent a small portion of total revenue [24][25]. - TOP TOY's self-developed products contributed nearly 50% of sales, the highest among Chinese collectible toy brands, with gross margins improving from under 20% in 2022 to approximately 32.4% in 2025 [20][18]. Group 4: Market Position and Competition - TOP TOY's supply chain management and cost control are superior to competitors, with inventory costs constituting 93.7% to 95.4% of total sales costs from 2022 to 2024 [19]. - The company is attempting to differentiate itself from competitors like Pop Mart by enhancing its IP development capabilities and focusing on product innovation rather than just expanding store numbers [23][29]. - TOP TOY is exploring new store formats, including flagship stores with themed cafes and workshops, to enhance customer engagement and social interaction [29].

Group 1: TOP TOY IPO - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to strengthen Miniso's presence in the entertainment consumer sector [1] - Since its first store opening in December 2020, TOP TOY has established a comprehensive platform covering various products including figurines, 3D models, and plush toys [1] - Financial projections show revenues of 679 million yuan, 1.461 billion yuan, and 1.909 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with net profits turning from a loss of 38 million yuan in 2022 to profits of 212 million yuan and 294 million yuan in 2023 and 2024 [1] Group 2: Bright Dairy Asset Sale - Bright Dairy's subsidiary, New Lite, plans to sell its North Island assets in New Zealand to Abbott for 170 million USD, with the transaction expected to close by April 2026 [2] - This sale is anticipated to increase New Lite's net profit by approximately 10 to 15 million NZD in the 2026 fiscal year [2] - The move reflects Bright Dairy's strategic shift towards optimizing its overseas asset structure and focusing on core business operations [2] Group 3: Food Safety Regulations - The State Administration for Market Regulation has introduced new regulations for food safety responsibilities in chain restaurants, marking a shift from quantity-focused to model-focused oversight [3] - The regulations clarify definitions for chain operations, headquarters, and branches, addressing previous inconsistencies in regulatory standards [3] - Strong compliance capabilities in chain enterprises are expected to lead to valuation premiums, while smaller brands with poor management may face operational pressures [3] Group 4: New Personal Care Brand Launch - The founder of the oral care brand Canban announced the launch of a new personal care brand "Little Arrow," indicating a shift towards a multi-brand group operation model [4] - Canban aims to explore growth opportunities in three areas: targeting the elderly and children markets, expanding into niche categories like dental floss, and adapting to channel diversification trends [4] - This strategic expansion is likely to enhance brand synergy and boost market recognition of domestic personal care brands' innovation capabilities [4]

Group 1 - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to strengthen Miniso's presence in the entertainment consumption sector and create a second growth curve for the group [1] - TOP TOY has established a comprehensive platform for the潮玩 industry since opening its first store in December 2020, with a product matrix that includes figurines, 3D assembly models, and plush toys [1] - Financial data shows that TOP TOY's revenue increased from 679 million yuan in 2022 to 1.461 billion yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 1.909 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits turning from a loss of 38 million yuan in 2022 to 212 million yuan in 2023 and 294 million yuan in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Bright Dairy's subsidiary, New Light, plans to sell its North Island assets in New Zealand to Abbott for 170 million USD, with the transaction expected to complete by April 2026 [2] - This sale is anticipated to enhance New Light's net profit by approximately 10 to 15 million New Zealand dollars in the 2026 fiscal year, reflecting a strategic shift towards optimizing overseas asset structure and focusing on core business [2] Group 3 - The State Administration for Market Regulation has introduced new regulations for food safety responsibilities in chain catering enterprises, marking a shift from quantity-focused to quality-focused oversight [3] - The new regulations clarify definitions for chain operations and emphasize the responsibilities of headquarters, which may lead to valuation premiums for compliant chain enterprises while putting pressure on smaller brands with lax management [3] Group 4 - The founder of the oral care brand Canban, Yin Kuo, announced the launch of a new personal care brand "Little Arrow" this year, indicating a shift towards a multi-brand group operation model [4] - Canban aims to explore new growth opportunities by focusing on the "one old one young" market, expanding into niche categories like dental floss, and adapting to channel diversification trends [4] - This strategic expansion is expected to enhance brand synergy and may lead to a reassessment of the innovation capabilities of domestic personal care brands in the capital market [4]

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market and potentially achieve a higher valuation upon successful listing [1][12]. Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [1][4]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, and achieving 1.36 billion RMB in revenue in the first half of this year [4]. Revenue Sources - TOP TOY's revenue is heavily reliant on external IPs, with approximately 47% of its revenue in 2024 expected to come from popular licensed IPs such as Sanrio and Disney, generating around 889 million RMB [4]. - The company holds 17 proprietary IPs and 43 licensed IPs, but its own IPs contributed only 680,000 RMB to revenue last year, indicating a weak market influence [4]. Market Position and Strategy - As of June 30, 2023, TOP TOY operates 293 stores, supported by Miniso's extensive distribution network, which includes over 4,300 stores in mainland China [8][10]. - Miniso is not only the controlling shareholder of TOP TOY, holding 86.9% of its shares, but also its largest customer, contributing nearly 45.5% of TOP TOY's total revenue in the first half of this year [8][9]. Future Plans - The company plans to open 100 new stores domestically this year, aiming for a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and has set a goal to expand internationally by opening 1,000 stores in 100 countries over the next five years [12]. - TOP TOY has prepared a reserve fund of 10 billion RMB to support its ongoing domestic and international expansion efforts [12].

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [2]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, and achieving 1.36 billion RMB in revenue with a net profit of approximately 180 million RMB in the first half of this year, resulting in a net profit margin of about 13.2% [3]. Group 2: IP and Revenue Dependency - TOP TOY currently holds 17 proprietary IPs, 43 licensed IPs, and over 600 third-party IPs, but its revenue heavily relies on external IPs, with licensed IPs contributing approximately 889 million RMB, accounting for about 47% of total revenue in 2024 [4][5]. - The company's proprietary IPs generated only 6.8 million RMB in revenue last year, representing less than 1% of total revenue, indicating a weak market influence compared to competitors like Pop Mart, which generated 11.121 billion RMB from its proprietary IPs, constituting 85% of its total revenue [5]. Group 3: Sales Channels and Partnerships - Miniso Group is the largest customer of TOP TOY, accounting for 48.3% and 45.5% of the company's total revenue in the last year and the first half of this year, respectively, with sales to Miniso amounting to 923 million RMB and 619 million RMB [8]. - The company plans to leverage its partnership with Yonghui Supermarket, which has become Miniso's largest shareholder, to enhance its sales channels, particularly for its own products like building blocks and blind boxes [10]. Group 4: Expansion Plans - TOP TOY aims to open 100 new stores in China this year, targeting a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and plans to expand internationally by covering 100 countries and opening 1,000 stores over the next five years [10]. - The company has prepared a reserve fund of 10 billion RMB to support its ongoing domestic and international expansion efforts [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry has shown mixed performance, with notable developments such as Miniso's proposal to spin off TOP TOY for independent listing in Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance operational and financial transparency [2][3][19]. - TOP TOY, a leading brand in the trendy toy sector, has demonstrated significant growth, with revenue increasing from RMB 679 million in 2022 to RMB 1.909 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [4][20]. - The report highlights the performance of various companies within the industry, with a focus on the growth of sports and entertainment products, which saw a year-on-year increase of 20.6% in the first eight months of 2025 [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector declined by 2.59% in the week of September 22-26, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.07% [8][21]. - The textile manufacturing sub-sector fell by 1.75%, while the apparel and home textile sub-sector dropped by 2.89% [21]. Company Developments - TOP TOY's gross margin improved from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024, with self-developed products contributing approximately 50% of revenue by 2025 [5][20]. - The number of TOP TOY stores increased from 117 in 2022 to 293 by mid-2025, indicating strong expansion [5][20]. Industry Data Tracking - In the first eight months of 2025, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to USD 94.513 billion and USD 102.761 billion, respectively, showing a slight increase and a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year [48]. - The retail sales of sports and entertainment products grew by 16.9% in August 2025, indicating robust consumer demand [55]. Industry News - Goyard, a luxury leather brand, reported a 64% increase in revenue to EUR 810 million for the fiscal year ending December 30, 2024, showcasing strong performance in both domestic and international markets [6][65][66]. - Xtep International opened its first overseas running club in Singapore, integrating high-performance running gear with community space, aimed at enhancing the running community [10][67]. - FILA renewed its partnership with the China Open, becoming the exclusive sports shoe and apparel sponsor, and announced initiatives to support youth tennis development [10][69].

Group 1 - Miniso (09896.HK) plans to spin off its toy brand TOP TOY for an independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to better reflect TOP TOY's value and attract investors interested in the high-growth toy industry [2] - TOP TOY was incubated by Miniso in 2020 and is currently 86.9% owned by Miniso, positioning it as a significant player in the toy market [4] - The toy market in China is projected to grow from RMB 207 billion in 2019 to RMB 587 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% [11] Group 2 - TOP TOY's product focus differs from that of its competitor Pop Mart, as it covers a full range of products including blind boxes, figurines, and 3D models, while Pop Mart primarily focuses on blind boxes [4] - The company relies heavily on licensed IP, with 43 licensed IPs and 17 proprietary IPs, which limits its profit margins due to revenue sharing with IP owners [6][7] - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be RMB 6.79 billion, RMB 14.61 billion, and RMB 19.09 billion respectively, with significant growth in the first half of 2023 reaching RMB 13.60 billion [11][12] Group 3 - Despite its growth, TOP TOY's profitability is challenged by its reliance on licensed IP, leading to lower gross margins compared to Pop Mart, which has a gross margin of 70.3% compared to TOP TOY's 32.4% [13] - The company has seen a decrease in the proportion of revenue from self-developed products, which accounted for 47.2% in the first half of 2023, down from 53.6% in 2024 [13] - TOP TOY's store count reached 293 globally by mid-2023, significantly lower than Pop Mart's 571 stores, indicating slower expansion [8]