Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market and potentially achieve a higher valuation upon successful listing [1][12]. Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [1][4]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, and achieving 1.36 billion RMB in revenue in the first half of this year [4]. Revenue Sources - TOP TOY's revenue is heavily reliant on external IPs, with approximately 47% of its revenue in 2024 expected to come from popular licensed IPs such as Sanrio and Disney, generating around 889 million RMB [4]. - The company holds 17 proprietary IPs and 43 licensed IPs, but its own IPs contributed only 680,000 RMB to revenue last year, indicating a weak market influence [4]. Market Position and Strategy - As of June 30, 2023, TOP TOY operates 293 stores, supported by Miniso's extensive distribution network, which includes over 4,300 stores in mainland China [8][10]. - Miniso is not only the controlling shareholder of TOP TOY, holding 86.9% of its shares, but also its largest customer, contributing nearly 45.5% of TOP TOY's total revenue in the first half of this year [8][9]. Future Plans - The company plans to open 100 new stores domestically this year, aiming for a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and has set a goal to expand internationally by opening 1,000 stores in 100 countries over the next five years [12]. - TOP TOY has prepared a reserve fund of 10 billion RMB to support its ongoing domestic and international expansion efforts [12].

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on the booming collectible toy market [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - TOP TOY was established in December 2020 and is recognized as the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion RMB for 2024 [2]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with revenue increasing from 679 million RMB to 1.909 billion RMB over the past three years, and achieving 1.36 billion RMB in revenue with a net profit of approximately 180 million RMB in the first half of this year, resulting in a net profit margin of about 13.2% [3]. Group 2: IP and Revenue Dependency - TOP TOY currently holds 17 proprietary IPs, 43 licensed IPs, and over 600 third-party IPs, but its revenue heavily relies on external IPs, with licensed IPs contributing approximately 889 million RMB, accounting for about 47% of total revenue in 2024 [4][5]. - The company's proprietary IPs generated only 6.8 million RMB in revenue last year, representing less than 1% of total revenue, indicating a weak market influence compared to competitors like Pop Mart, which generated 11.121 billion RMB from its proprietary IPs, constituting 85% of its total revenue [5]. Group 3: Sales Channels and Partnerships - Miniso Group is the largest customer of TOP TOY, accounting for 48.3% and 45.5% of the company's total revenue in the last year and the first half of this year, respectively, with sales to Miniso amounting to 923 million RMB and 619 million RMB [8]. - The company plans to leverage its partnership with Yonghui Supermarket, which has become Miniso's largest shareholder, to enhance its sales channels, particularly for its own products like building blocks and blind boxes [10]. Group 4: Expansion Plans - TOP TOY aims to open 100 new stores in China this year, targeting a total of 380 to 400 stores by year-end, and plans to expand internationally by covering 100 countries and opening 1,000 stores over the next five years [10]. - The company has prepared a reserve fund of 10 billion RMB to support its ongoing domestic and international expansion efforts [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry has shown mixed performance, with notable developments such as Miniso's proposal to spin off TOP TOY for independent listing in Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance operational and financial transparency [2][3][19]. - TOP TOY, a leading brand in the trendy toy sector, has demonstrated significant growth, with revenue increasing from RMB 679 million in 2022 to RMB 1.909 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [4][20]. - The report highlights the performance of various companies within the industry, with a focus on the growth of sports and entertainment products, which saw a year-on-year increase of 20.6% in the first eight months of 2025 [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector declined by 2.59% in the week of September 22-26, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.07% [8][21]. - The textile manufacturing sub-sector fell by 1.75%, while the apparel and home textile sub-sector dropped by 2.89% [21]. Company Developments - TOP TOY's gross margin improved from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024, with self-developed products contributing approximately 50% of revenue by 2025 [5][20]. - The number of TOP TOY stores increased from 117 in 2022 to 293 by mid-2025, indicating strong expansion [5][20]. Industry Data Tracking - In the first eight months of 2025, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to USD 94.513 billion and USD 102.761 billion, respectively, showing a slight increase and a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year [48]. - The retail sales of sports and entertainment products grew by 16.9% in August 2025, indicating robust consumer demand [55]. Industry News - Goyard, a luxury leather brand, reported a 64% increase in revenue to EUR 810 million for the fiscal year ending December 30, 2024, showcasing strong performance in both domestic and international markets [6][65][66]. - Xtep International opened its first overseas running club in Singapore, integrating high-performance running gear with community space, aimed at enhancing the running community [10][67]. - FILA renewed its partnership with the China Open, becoming the exclusive sports shoe and apparel sponsor, and announced initiatives to support youth tennis development [10][69].

Group 1 - Miniso (09896.HK) plans to spin off its toy brand TOP TOY for an independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to better reflect TOP TOY's value and attract investors interested in the high-growth toy industry [2] - TOP TOY was incubated by Miniso in 2020 and is currently 86.9% owned by Miniso, positioning it as a significant player in the toy market [4] - The toy market in China is projected to grow from RMB 207 billion in 2019 to RMB 587 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% [11] Group 2 - TOP TOY's product focus differs from that of its competitor Pop Mart, as it covers a full range of products including blind boxes, figurines, and 3D models, while Pop Mart primarily focuses on blind boxes [4] - The company relies heavily on licensed IP, with 43 licensed IPs and 17 proprietary IPs, which limits its profit margins due to revenue sharing with IP owners [6][7] - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be RMB 6.79 billion, RMB 14.61 billion, and RMB 19.09 billion respectively, with significant growth in the first half of 2023 reaching RMB 13.60 billion [11][12] Group 3 - Despite its growth, TOP TOY's profitability is challenged by its reliance on licensed IP, leading to lower gross margins compared to Pop Mart, which has a gross margin of 70.3% compared to TOP TOY's 32.4% [13] - The company has seen a decrease in the proportion of revenue from self-developed products, which accounted for 47.2% in the first half of 2023, down from 53.6% in 2024 [13] - TOP TOY's store count reached 293 globally by mid-2023, significantly lower than Pop Mart's 571 stores, indicating slower expansion [8]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese retail brand Miniso is planning to spin off its pop-culture collectibles unit and pursue a separate listing in Hong Kong, aiming to replicate the success of Pop Mart, known for its Labubu figures [1] Company Summary - Miniso intends to leverage the growing market for pop-culture collectibles by establishing a distinct entity for this segment [1] - The strategy reflects a broader trend among retail brands to capitalize on niche markets and enhance shareholder value through focused business units [1] Industry Summary - The collectibles market, particularly in pop culture, has seen significant growth, with companies like Pop Mart achieving notable success [1] - The move by Miniso indicates a competitive landscape where companies are increasingly looking to diversify and specialize in high-demand sectors [1]

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has submitted its prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in Miniso's dual-brand strategy following its dual listing in 2022 [1] - The company has shown impressive revenue growth, with projected revenues of 679 million, 1.461 billion, and 1.909 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [1] - TOP TOY achieved profitability in 2023, with net profits of 212 million and 294 million yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively [1] Revenue and Profitability - TOP TOY's revenue for the first half of 2023 increased by 58.5% to 1.36 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The company's gross profit margins have improved, with figures of 19.9%, 31.4%, and 32.7% from 2022 to 2024, and 32.4% for the first half of 2023 [1] Market Position and Growth - Established in December 2020, TOP TOY has become the largest and fastest-growing潮玩 brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - As of September 2025, TOP TOY operates 299 stores in China and 15 overseas, covering markets such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Japan [2] - The brand has over 10 million registered members, with a customer demographic primarily consisting of women aged 18-30 [2] Strategic Development - TOP TOY's growth strategy includes a dual approach of self-owned IP and licensed IP, with 30% of its products being self-owned IP, which has a gross margin of 65% [4] - The brand's product matrix includes a diverse range of items, such as figurines and 3D models, and it has successfully built a multi-layered IP matrix [4][5] Competitive Landscape - TOP TOY and Pop Mart represent two distinct business models in the潮玩 market, with TOP TOY focusing on an open platform strategy leveraging licensed IP, while Pop Mart emphasizes a closed ecosystem centered around self-owned IP [8] - The strategic differences between the two companies influence their growth paths and profitability, with TOP TOY rapidly expanding through a "borrowed" strategy while Pop Mart focuses on long-term IP value [9] Future Plans - The funds raised from the IPO will be used to enhance the IP matrix, improve global channel layouts, strengthen brand building, and enhance supply chain capabilities [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Consumer** sector, particularly the evolving consumer psychology and its implications for various industries and companies in China [1][2]. Core Insights on Consumer Psychology 1. **Shift from Materialism to Meaning**: Chinese consumers are prioritizing experiences over ownership, valuing emotional resonance and identity signaling in their purchases [2][3][10]. 2. **Social Signaling**: Consumption is increasingly viewed as a means of expressing identity and building community, with purchases serving as status symbols [3][11]. 3. **Merit over Maker**: There is a growing preference for quality and value over brand origin, leading to the rise of domestic brands like Laopu Gold and Pop Mart [3][12][59]. Market Implications - The psychological shifts translate into opportunities in three high-growth sectors: 1. **Freshly-Made Beverages**: Brands like Heytea and Mixue are transforming beverage consumption into lifestyle experiences, with a focus on social media engagement [5][63]. 2. **IP-Driven Experiential Retail**: Companies like Pop Mart and Miniso are leveraging intellectual property to create emotional connections and community engagement [5][96]. 3. **Wellness and Active Lifestyle**: There is a strong emphasis on health, with consumers willing to maintain or increase spending on health-related products despite economic fluctuations [115]. Key Companies and Their Performance - **Amer Sports**: Rated Outperform with a price target of 46 USD [7]. - **ANTA Sports**: Rated Market-Perform with a price target of 95 HKD [7]. - **Li Ning**: Rated Underperform with a price target of 12 HKD [7]. - **Giant Biogene**: Rated Outperform with a price target of 70 HKD [7]. - **Proya**: Rated Market-Perform with a price target of 97 RMB [7]. Additional Insights - **Emotional Resonance**: Consumers are increasingly drawn to products that evoke personal identity and cultural pride, leading to a rise in domestic brands that incorporate local elements [19][60]. - **Dopamine-Driven Consumption**: The popularity of blind box retail models reflects a consumer desire for surprise and social validation [43][99]. - **Health Consciousness**: 94% of Chinese consumers prioritize health, indicating resilience in the health sector despite economic challenges [115]. Sector Dynamics - The freshly-made beverage sector is highly competitive, with brands like Mixue and Heytea catering to different consumer segments through unique experiences [63][76]. - The pop toy market is projected to grow significantly, with Pop Mart leading the charge through innovative IP strategies [107][116]. Conclusion - The evolving consumer landscape in China presents significant opportunities for companies that can adapt to the new psychological shifts, focusing on meaningful engagement, community building, and health consciousness.

Group 1: H&M Q3 Performance - H&M reported Q3 net sales of 57 billion Swedish Krona and operating profit of 4.9 billion Swedish Krona, exceeding analyst expectations of 3.7 billion Krona [1] - The profit growth was attributed to improved customer service, increased gross margin of 52.9%, and effective cost control, which helped mitigate macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - H&M opened three significant new stores in China, including a flagship store in Shenzhen and the first brand experience center in Shanghai [1] Group 2: H&M Stock Reaction and Future Outlook - Following the earnings report, H&M's stock surged over 10% [2] - The company expects September sales to remain flat compared to the previous year, which is a challenging benchmark due to a prior 11% sales increase [2] - H&M's autumn collection has received positive market reception [2] Group 3: Costco Q4 Performance - Costco reported Q4 net sales of $84.432 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8% [3] - Total revenue reached approximately $86.156 billion (about 614.32 billion RMB), also up 8.1% year-on-year [3] - Excluding gasoline and foreign exchange fluctuations, same-store sales grew by 6.4%, surpassing analyst expectations [3] Group 4: Costco's Market Performance - U.S. comparable sales increased by 5.1% in Q4, with a full-year growth of 6.2% [3] - Canadian market saw a 6.3% increase in Q4, while other international markets grew by 8.6% [3] - E-commerce sales grew by 13.6% in Q4, maintaining double-digit growth [3] Group 5: Supply Chain and Inflation Insights - Costco's management noted stable supply chains and confidence in inventory levels for the holiday season [4] - The company is working closely with suppliers to adjust production locations and reduce costs to mitigate tariff impacts [4] - Inflation rates for non-food items have risen for the second consecutive quarter, primarily driven by imported goods [4] Group 6: Upcoming IPOs - Wanchen Group submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 23 [4] - The group anticipates significant revenue growth, projecting total income to rise from 9.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 32.33 billion RMB in 2024, a 247.9% increase [5] - Miniso's TOP TOY brand has initiated its IPO process, reporting substantial revenue growth and profitability in recent periods [6]

Company Dynamics - Miniso (09896.HK) plans to spin off its trendy toy brand TOP TOY and list it independently on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the proposal confirmed by the exchange [2] - TOP TOY, established in 2020, focuses on the design, development, procurement, and sales of trendy toys, building a comprehensive platform for the entire trendy toy industry chain [2] - The brand has developed a multi-layered IP matrix, combining self-owned IP, licensed IP, and third-party IP, while offering a diverse product range to meet consumer demands [2] IP Structure and Risks - As of June 30, 2025, TOP TOY has only 17 self-owned IPs, while licensed IPs total 43 and third-party IPs exceed 600, indicating a reliance on external IPs for revenue [3] - The potential expiration of key licenses or a decline in popularity of core licensed IPs could significantly impact product appeal and market performance [3] Financial Performance - TOP TOY's revenue has shown steady growth, with figures of 680 million RMB, 1.46 billion RMB, and 1.91 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, alongside an increase in gross profit from 140 million RMB to 620 million RMB [4] - The gross margin improved from 19.9% to 32.7%, and the company transitioned from a loss of 38.38 million RMB in 2022 to net profits of 210 million RMB and 290 million RMB in 2023 and 2024, respectively [4] Significance of Spin-off - The spin-off is crucial for TOP TOY as it will enhance its market expansion capabilities, strengthen independent operational capacity, and improve its ability to attract investment for future growth and IP development [4]

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY International Group Limited is planning to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its rapid growth and significant market position in the collectible toy industry in China [1] Company Overview - TOP TOY is the largest and fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China, with a projected GMV of 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, where nearly 50% of its revenue comes from self-developed products [1] - Since opening its first store in December 2020, TOP TOY has established a comprehensive platform for the collectible toy industry, creating a multi-layered matrix of proprietary, licensed, and third-party IPs [1] Market Position and Growth - According to a report by Frost & Sullivan, TOP TOY's GMV is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% from 2022 to 2024, making it the fastest-growing collectible toy brand in China [1] - TOP TOY achieved the milestone of surpassing 1 billion yuan in GMV in the shortest time among Chinese collectible toy brands [1] Product Diversification - The company offers a diverse product matrix, including figurines and 3D assembly models, to meet varied consumer demands and expand its customer base [1]