炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：喜乐 2025年上半年，港股IPO市场以"冰火两重天"的极端分化态势迎来近四年最强复苏：42家企业登陆港交所，合计募资1067亿港 元，较2024年上半年同比激增688%。这场由A to H大盘股与新经济赛道驱动的盛宴背后，中介机构的角色正经历深刻重构 ——头部保荐机构以百亿级承销规模主导市场格局，互联网券商借散户打新狂潮抢占份额，然而破发率高企、绿鞋机制失效、 承销"蹭单"成风等乱象，暴露出繁荣表象下中介责任的缺位。 （全文数据截至2025年6月30日） 中资机构凭借A to H项目资源优势占据市场主导地位 2025年上半年港股保荐市场呈现中资机构主导格局。前5名中，共有3家中资中介机构，其中中金公司以13单保荐、214.6亿港 元规模位居榜首，保荐规模较第二名华泰证券（9单、133.9亿港元）领先近2倍。中资券商在保荐市场的崛起，一方面得益于 港股IPO中A to H项目占据半壁江山，中资券商对A股公司的资源积累更具优势；另一方面也与近年外资机构活跃度降低，外 资中介对海外投资者的覆盖优势削弱等因 ...

Group 1 - Barclays has raised its Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing the 2025 forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel and the 2026 forecast by $10 to $70 per barrel, due to optimistic demand outlook [1] - Global oil inventories declined in Q2 despite increased OPEC+ production, driven by strong demand growth and a slowdown in supply growth from non-OPEC producers [1] - The bank has increased its global oil demand growth forecast by 260,000 barrels per day, primarily from OECD countries, which are experiencing unexpectedly strong oil demand [1] Group 2 - Barclays noted that while OPEC+ may accelerate the gradual removal of voluntary production cuts, actual production increases may lag behind due to pressures on some member countries to control output [2] - The report highlighted that OPEC+'s target production increased by 548,000 barrels per day from March to May 2025, but overall production remained stable, indicating better compliance [2] - The bank anticipates a global oil supply surplus of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with non-OECD countries' oil supply expected to increase by 1 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, sufficient to meet demand growth during that period [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish stance on U.S. Treasury duration and recommends staying long in curve steepeners [6][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a dynamic labor market with slower private payroll growth but a low unemployment rate, indicating lower potential growth and equilibrium rates, which may lead to more Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][9][32]. - The employment report shows strength in state and local government jobs, particularly in education, which contributed significantly to overall payroll growth [10][11][22]. - The report suggests that as market-implied trough rates decrease, U.S. Treasury yields are expected to fall, supporting a bullish outlook on U.S. Treasury duration [35][41]. Summary by Sections Labor Market Analysis - The June employment report indicates slower private payroll growth, with a tighter labor market due to a decline in the labor force participation rate [9][32]. - State and local governments added 80,000 jobs in June, with education jobs accounting for 63,000 of these [11][12]. - The report notes that fewer teachers left for summer break than anticipated, which may have artificially boosted the seasonally adjusted figures [18][22]. Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes that lower potential growth will likely weigh on the equilibrium interest rate, suggesting that the Fed may need to cut rates more than currently expected [33][34]. - It is anticipated that the Fed's longer-run target rate may need to be adjusted downward over time [33][34]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends maintaining long positions in U.S. Treasury securities, particularly in the 5-year maturity sector, and suggests a UST 3s30s yield curve steepener [41][46]. - Specific trade ideas include maintaining long positions in UST SOFR swap spreads and SFRZ5 futures, with targets set for various instruments [46][49].

Group 1: US Employment Data - US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 106,000 and the previous value of 139,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of better-than-expected results [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous 4.2%, indicating a resilient labor market despite hiring uncertainties [1] - Following the non-farm payroll report, market expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate cut diminished significantly, with the probability dropping from 98% to approximately 80% [1] Group 2: Japan Wage Negotiations - Japan's average wage increase for the fiscal year 2025 reached 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, with small enterprises seeing a growth of 4.65% [2] - The wage growth reflects a tight labor market, potentially supporting the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, although persistent inflation pressures may limit consumer spending and corporate profit margins [2] - Global investors are reducing long positions in the yen due to various short-term challenges, including slow progress on US-Japan trade agreements and uncertainties surrounding Japan's elections [2] Group 3: US Banking Sector - All 22 banks passed the Federal Reserve's stress tests, with an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.6%, significantly above the 4.5% regulatory requirement [3] - Major banks announced increased dividends and stock buyback plans, with Goldman Sachs raising its dividend by 33% to $4 per share, reflecting its strong capital position [3][4] - The banking sector's performance has led to record highs in bank stock prices, with Goldman Sachs' market capitalization surpassing $220 billion [4] Group 4: EDA Software Market - The US government lifted export restrictions on three major chip design software suppliers: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens, allowing them to fully resume services to Chinese clients [5] - These three companies dominate the EDA market, holding a combined market share of 82% in China, with Synopsys at 32%, Cadence at 30%, and Siemens at 13% [5] - Following the announcement, Cadence and Synopsys saw stock price increases of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, with their combined market capitalization exceeding $170 billion [5] Group 5: Oracle and OpenAI Partnership - OpenAI has agreed to lease significant computing power from Oracle, totaling approximately 4.5 gigawatts, which is enough to power millions of American homes [6] - Oracle's stock price rose over 3%, reaching a new high of $237.03, as the company continues to expand its cloud computing business, particularly targeting AI clients [6][7] - The partnership is part of a larger $500 billion "Star Gate" initiative involving SoftBank, Oracle, and OpenAI, aimed at enhancing cloud computing capabilities [6]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has crossed the 3% threshold in voting rights for Solvay, with a total of 3.96% after the transaction on June 25, 2025 [1][4] - The notification was sent to Solvay on July 1, 2025, in accordance with Belgian transparency legislation [1][4] - The total number of shares considered for the voting rights calculation is 105,876,416 [4] Group 2 - Solvay is a leading chemical company with a history dating back to 1863, focusing on sustainable solutions and innovation [3] - The company reported net sales of €4.7 billion in 2024 and employs approximately 9,000 people [3] - Solvay aims for a carbon-neutral future by 2050, emphasizing its commitment to sustainability [3]

Companies surveyed by Morgan Stanley say climate change is raising costs and disrupting workers https://t.co/bHVephf7CL ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that the Bank of England may accelerate interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 due to anticipated economic slowdown and uncertainty in tax revenue from the autumn budget [1] Economic Outlook - Economic activity in the UK is expected to decline in the coming months, prompting the Bank of England to potentially lower interest rates faster than market expectations [1] - The current benchmark interest rate of the Bank of England is projected to decrease from 4.25% to 3.25% by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's long position in CATL's H-shares increased from 7.05% to 8.09% as of June 27 [1] - Morgan Stanley's short position in CATL's H-shares rose from 4.86% to 5.83% [1] - The total number of shares held long by Morgan Stanley is 12,617,964, while the total number of shares held short is 9,102,531 [4] Group 2 - The total number of shares available for borrowing remains at 0, indicating no shares are currently available for short selling [4] - The increase in long positions suggests a bullish outlook on CATL by Morgan Stanley [1][4] - The increase in short positions may indicate a cautious sentiment or hedging strategy by Morgan Stanley [1]

智通财经7月3日电，香港交易所信息显示，摩根士丹利在哔哩哔哩-W的持股比例于6月26日从5.10%降 至4.41%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The first half of 2025 saw a volatile market, but equity markets rebounded significantly after April 2, with the S&P 500 returning 6.2%, MSCI Europe returning 23.7%, and KOSPI leading with a return of 40.9% [2] - The US dollar experienced its worst first half since 1973, while Brent crude oil prices rallied by 9.4% [5][2] - Credit markets showed resilience, with US high yield (HY) total returns at 4.6% and EUR HY at 2.7% [2] Performance Summary - Global equities saw significant returns, with the S&P 500 at 6.2%, MSCI Europe at 23.7%, and KOSPI at 40.9% [12] - Fixed income performance included US IG total returns at 4.2% and US HY at 4.6% [12] - The US dollar depreciated, with notable currency appreciation against it, including EUR by 13.9% and JPY by 11.1% [12] Technicals - Gross issuance in developed markets (DM) for high yield (HY) and investment grade (IG) fell by 8% and 10% respectively compared to the 2024 run rate [3] - There were outflows from US equities and inflows into fixed income assets, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3] Sentiment Analysis - The Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) signaled a risk-off approach in mid-June but returned to neutral by the end of the month [4] - Volatility, as measured by the VIX, decreased to four-month lows after a spike due to geopolitical tensions [4] Market Review & Trends - The report highlights a mixed performance across sectors, with technology leading global equity sectors while consumer staples lagged [2] - The report also notes a significant decline in US equity demand, benefiting European stocks [14] Valuations - Current P/E ratios for major indices include S&P 500 at 24.4 and MSCI Europe at 15.9, indicating varying levels of valuation across regions [24] - The report provides insights into forward P/E ratios, with communication services at 20.1 for ACWI and 20.6 for the US [26] Fixed Income Markets - US 10Y yields are at 4.23%, with high yield spreads at 290 basis points, reflecting the current credit market conditions [29] - The report indicates that US HY total returns are at 4.6%, while EUR HY is at 2.7% [29] FX & Commodity Markets - The report notes significant appreciation of various currencies against the USD, with EUR up 13.9% and JPY up 11.1% [32] - Commodity performance includes Brent crude oil rising by 9.4% and gold prices showing a notable increase [32]