Core Insights - The article compiles significant research calls from Wall Street, highlighting upgrades and downgrades of various companies that investors should be aware of [1] Upgrades - Wells Fargo upgraded Merck (MRK) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $125, increased from $90, citing business development and pipeline progress as key factors for revenue growth in the early 2030s [2] - Wolfe Research upgraded Morgan Stanley (MS) to Outperform from Peer Perform with a price target of $198, anticipating accelerated revenue growth from investment banking share gains and organic growth in wealth management [3] - HSBC upgraded Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $228, reduced from $265, viewing the recent share selloff as a buying opportunity [3] - BofA upgraded Booking Holdings (BKNG) to Buy from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $6,000, believing that concerns regarding disintermediation risks from Google and OpenAI are overstated [4] - Wedbush upgraded Carvana (CVNA) to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $400, increased from $380, suggesting that the recent share pullback is overdone [5] Downgrades - UBS downgraded JFrog (FROG) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $65, up from $48, indicating that while AI-related benefits are significant, the larger revenue impact is likely 12-18 months away [6] - Jefferies downgraded Exact Sciences (EXAS) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $105, up from $90, due to the pending acquisition by Abbott, which is seen as a win for Exact Sciences [6] - Evercore ISI downgraded QuantumScape (QS) to In Line from Outperform with a price target of $12, up from $8, citing valuation concerns as shares have risen 200% year-to-date [6] - UBS downgraded Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $188, up from $163, stating that the stock appears fairly valued after a strong Phase 3 GEA update and a 25% stock increase [6] - TD Cowen downgraded PureCycle Technologies (PCT) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $9, down from $16, due to delays in orders and growth plans, prompting a more cautious stance [6]

摩根士丹利表示，三分之二的股票跌幅超过10%，表面之下的损失十分显著。 强化其看涨股票立场的滚动复苏论首先基于摩根士丹利的观察——上周EPS修正广度再次上升。该行还 认为美国正处于增长周期的早期阶段（而非许多投资机构认为的周期末期），且对未来一年主要指数净 利润的预测普遍积极。 摩根士丹利表示，未来12个月的净收入预期持续上升，其中小盘股的上升趋势最为强劲。 当市场因流动性收紧而颤抖时，摩根士丹利首席策略师却看到了机会。他不仅没有被近期的动荡吓退， 反而将标普500指数的长期目标定在了令人咋舌的7800点。 Wilson认为近期市场疲软有两个原因：美联储自10月最后一次降息以来的渐进式鹰派基调；以及政府关 门导致的流动性约束，当时现金在财政部一般账户中迅速积累，而这些资金通常会分散到经济中。 美联储的鸽派转向和流动性收紧近期令股市动荡不安，对回报造成实质性损害。 但对于摩根士丹利首 席股票策略师Mike Wilson而言，这种疲软实际上强化了他对股票12个月前景的积极判断，让他有机会 逢低买入并加倍押注其"滚动复苏论"。 Wilson观察到，虽然标普500指数迄今遭受的打击微不足道，仅较历史高点下跌约5%，但 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility, dropping from a record high of approximately $126,000 to below $90,000, representing a 20% decline in the past month [2] - The outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, particularly BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), indicate a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, with a record outflow of $523 million in one day [2][3] - Despite recent outflows, IBIT remains substantial with $70 billion in net assets, having attracted $4.3 billion in October alone [4] Investor Behavior - Investors are reducing exposure to speculative assets like cryptocurrencies, with many viewing the recent influx of new crypto ETFs as an exit point [3] - Major institutional investors, such as Harvard University's endowment and JPMorgan Chase, have increased their holdings in Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [5] - Other Bitcoin ETFs, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) and Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), have faced significant outflows, highlighting the varied performance among different funds [7]

US stock markets are likely nearing the end of the recent selloff, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, who reiterated his bullish outlook for next year https://t.co/mnFskq3jDe ...

US stock markets are likely nearing the end of the recent selloff, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, who reiterated his bullish outlook for next year. The banks views “any further weakness in the short-term as an opportunity to add long exposure into next year,” according to a note on Monday. The team is bullish on consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, industrial and small-cap stocks. Most Read from Bloomberg The strategists expect the S&P 500 to rally to 7,800 a year from ...

高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津日前表示， 人工智能（AI）引领的中国股票上涨远非泡沫，因为中国科技公司仍有空间通过专注于AI应用来提 升估值和盈利 。 刘劲津上周晚些时候在接受媒体采访中表示，与美国专注于算力的战略不同，中国将更多资金投向人工智能应用领域， 这让投资者 "有理由 相信，至少在短期内，中国AI的商业化变现能力可能更强" 。 "关键问题在于企业如何将AI相关产品的需求转化为实际收益，"他表示，"相对于美国，专注于应用的中国公司的估值仍要合理得 多。" 自中国初创公司DeepSeek推出高效低成本AI大模型，以及中国大型科技公司争相推出新AI工具以来，围绕中国崛起为AI超级大国的乐观情 绪持续高涨。 在刘劲津发表上述言论之际，人们对全球AI泡沫的担忧日益加剧，股价飙升与巨额投资热潮似乎已脱离基本面支撑。 "从估值角度来看，中国AI股的上涨远未形成泡沫。"刘劲津表示。 他指出，中国前十大科技公司总市值约为2.5万亿美元，而美国同类企业总市值高达25万亿美元，两者相差十倍。此外，美国科技巨头占标 普500指数总市值的比例约为40%，而中国科技巨头在主要指数中的市值占比仅为15%左右。 高盛还表示，在MSC ...

Group 1 - The core view of Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook is that an AI-driven capital expenditure wave of nearly $3 trillion will propel the market higher, with the S&P 500 index expected to reach 7800 points [1][2][8] - The report highlights that the shift in U.S. policy towards industrial policy and strategic investments is driving a significant rebound in corporate capital expenditures [3][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that global AI-related capital expenditures will approach $3 trillion, with approximately $1.5 trillion needing to be financed through public and private credit markets, contributing 0.4 percentage points to the projected 1.8% GDP growth in the U.S. by 2026 [5][6] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are expected to be broad-based across various industries, not limited to a few leading AI companies, with industrial firms, tech component suppliers, and financial institutions likely to benefit [8] - In the credit market, high-yield bonds are forecasted to outperform investment-grade bonds due to increased issuance pressures on investment-grade bonds, while high-yield bonds are expected to provide around 6-7% total returns [8] - Despite the positive outlook for 2026, there are warnings about potential cyclical pressures from trade policies and interest rate fluctuations, with the Fed possibly starting to cut rates in early 2026 [9] Group 3 - The main risk identified is the potential failure of the AI capital expenditure wave to translate into substantial productivity gains, which could lead to rising corporate leverage outpacing output growth and causing credit market concerns [10] - However, the likelihood of this risk materializing in 2026 is considered low, as corporate fundamentals remain strong with healthy balance sheets and low leverage [10] - It is crucial for investors to monitor key indicators such as corporate leverage, market valuations, and the conversion of investment waves into actual output starting in 2026 [10]

M Global Insight November 16, 2025 06:00 PM GMT 2026 Global Economics Outlook At the Crossroads Global growth and inflation have an unusually wide range of outcomes in 2026, so we use scenarios to frame the picture. The base case sees continued disinflation and growth settling near potential in 2027… but potential itself might improve. We show two upside scenarios contrasting the forces of stronger spending and rising productivity, while the downside scenario is mild. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do bus ...

一场由AI驱动的资本开支热潮正在形成，但这背后也潜藏着重大风险。 近日，摩根士丹利在其2026年展望报告中描绘了一幅整体积极的图景，认为由AI驱动的资本支出热潮将成为市场的主要推动力。 然而，该行也发出了一个关键的长期警告：如果这场耗资数万亿美元的投资未能及时转化为实质性的生产力增长，那么由此引发的杠杆率上升和 信贷担忧可能成为市场面临的主要风险。 AI引领的3万亿美元资本开支浪潮 策略师Michael Zezas在报告中表示，世界正在对美国政策的转变做出反应。美国政策已从过去的自由贸易转向以产业政策、贸易壁垒和战略投资 为核心的新共识，这种转变为企业资本支出的大幅回升提供了动力。 报告指出，在企业资产负债表现金充裕、经济环境有利以及AI技术前景的共同推动下，一场资本支出的浪潮正在形成。 摩根士丹利预计，全球与AI相关的资本支出将接近3万亿美元，其中约1.5万亿美元需要通过公共和私人信贷市场进行融资。 这一投资热潮预计将对实体经济产生直接影响，成为未来几年经济增长的重要引擎。该行经济团队预测，仅AI相关的资本支出就将为2026年美国 1.8%的GDP增长预估值贡献0.4个百分点。 投资机遇：从信贷到股市的广泛 ...

此前，摩根士丹利也撤回了美联储12月降息的预测，目前预计美联储将在明年1月、4月和6月降息，最 终将政策利率降至3%至3.25%区间。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 在美国公布强于预期的就业报告后，摩根大通也撤回了对美联储12月降息25个基点的预测。 摩根大通在美国当地时间周四晚间发布的一份报告中说，仍然预计美联储将在明年1月和4月降息。 ...