Key Takeaways JPM plans to raise its dividend to $1.50 and launched a $50B share buyback following the 2025 Fed stress test. Morgan Stanley intends to hike its dividend to $1 and renewed a $20B repurchase plan with no set end date. Goldman, BAC, Wells Fargo and others also announced plans to increase dividends for 3Q25.Following the clearing of the Federal Reserve's 2025 stress test, the large U.S. banks took turns returning excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.The stress ...

| I 德國DAX30 | 23,758.03 | 23,823.69 | 23,705.61 | +40.62 | +0.17% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 瑞 英國富時100 | 8,807.39 | 8,828.01 | 8,788.17 | +22.06 | +0.25% | | II 法國CAC40 | 7,745.44 | 7,755.74 | 7,674.23 | +82.85 | +1.08% | | 。 歐洲斯托克50 | 5,310.65 | 5,320.55 | 5,291.35 | +28.22 | +0.53% | 1. 7月2日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货涨跌不一。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.19%，标普500指数期货涨0.10%，纳指期货跌 0.01%。 | ■ US 30 | 44,579.00 | 44,656.50 | 44,474.00 | +83.90 | +0.19% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ US 500 | 6,204.40 | 6,220.40 ...

Core Insights - Recent data on U.S. tariff revenue has garnered significant attention, with annualized tariff revenue reaching an astonishing $327 billion, accounting for 1.1% of GDP [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that regardless of whether the tax burden falls on producers or consumers, it will inevitably have a negative impact on economic growth [1] Tariff Revenue Trends - As of June 26, the U.S. customs net revenue reached $27.3 billion, reflecting a rapid increase in tariff revenue [1] - Tariff revenue has shown a clear upward trend, rising from $15.6 billion in April to $22.2 billion in May, and then to $27.3 billion in June [1] - The annualized tariff revenue of $327 billion is equivalent to 65% of the projected corporate income tax for 2024 and 32% of non-withheld personal income tax, indicating a substantial economic burden on individuals and businesses [1] Impact on Corporate Profitability - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, the profit margin for U.S. non-financial companies is projected to decline from 13.8% to 11.7%, which is below the 15-year average of 12.2% [2] - Even if companies pass some or all of the tariff costs onto consumers, the negative impact on profitability cannot be entirely mitigated [2] Economic Growth Concerns - The tariffs pose a threat to overall economic growth, with Morgan Stanley emphasizing that the substantial tax revenue will not contribute positively to economic expansion [4] - Other economic indicators, such as a mere 1.7% year-on-year growth in air passenger volume as of May, suggest a slowdown in consumer activity, further intensifying economic downward pressure [4] Investment Recommendations - Given the increased economic downside risks, Morgan Stanley maintains its investment advice, suggesting a bullish stance on U.S. Treasury bonds due to potential further declines in interest rates [5] - The firm also recommends a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar, anticipating a shift towards accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [5] - Investors are advised to monitor market movements around July 9 and consider increasing long positions in U.S. Treasuries, capitalizing on the rise in yields due to tariff news [5]

美国大型银行在通过美联储年度压力测试后，纷纷宣布上调第三季度股息并启动新的股票回购计划。 周二，摩根大通、美国银行、富国银行等六大银行相继发布公告，宣布提高股息分配水平。其中摩根大 通将季度股息从每股1.40美元上调至1.50美元，并启动500亿美元的新股票回购计划。 美联储上周公布的压力测试结果显示，各大银行在严重经济衰退、失业率飙升和市场动荡等极端情景 下，仍能保持充足的资本水平。六大银行的一级普通股本比率均保持在两位数水平，远超监管要求。 这些举措反映出银行业在当前经济环境下的稳健表现，同时也将为股东带来更丰厚的回报。美联储正在 对压力测试机制进行改革，计划采用两年平均结果的方式，以减少测试结果的波动性。 各大银行相继上调股息 摩根大通作为美国最大银行，此次股息上调幅度为7.1%，这是该行今年第二次提高股息。首席执行官 Jamie Dimon表示，董事会的股息上调决定代表了可持续的资本分配水平，得到了强劲财务表现的支 撑。 美国银行将股息上调8%至每股28美分，富国银行从40分上调至45美分，摩根士丹利批准了200亿美元的 新股票回购计划，并计划将季度股息上调至每股1美元。 美联储的压力测试结果显示，各 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley analysts indicate that geopolitical risks have decreased with the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading to expectations that Brent crude oil prices may drop to around $60 per barrel by early 2026 [1] - The bank forecasts that OPEC is gradually lifting its production quota cuts, predicting a global oil supply surplus of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] - Non-OPEC countries' oil supply is expected to increase by 1 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, sufficient to meet demand growth during that period [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ decided to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, bringing the total production increase since April to 1.37 million barrels per day [1] - Major member countries are anticipated to approve another increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August, raising concerns about market oversupply [1] - The production increases in August and September will offset the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries, likely leading to a global market surplus in the fourth quarter [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the RMB or related assets Core Insights - The RMB is unlikely to appreciate significantly due to persistent deflationary pressures and the need for accommodative monetary policy [6][9] - Historical parallels between Japan's currency appreciation in the 1980s and the current situation in China are drawn, but the report argues that the RMB will not follow the same path [3][6] - Significant RMB appreciation would exacerbate deflation rather than alleviate it, and sustainable economic rebalancing requires more than just currency appreciation [6][10] Summary by Sections Currency Appreciation and Trade Tensions - Currency appreciation alone is insufficient to resolve complex trade tensions between the US and China, which involve multiple issues beyond currency [10][11] - Historical instances of RMB appreciation did not lead to a narrowing of China's trade surplus with the US [12][13] Deflationary Pressures - China is currently facing intense deflationary pressures, and significant currency appreciation would further harm corporate profits and aggregate demand [23][25] - The report highlights that exporters, particularly SMEs, would suffer from translation losses due to currency appreciation [24][25] Economic Rebalancing - Achieving sustainable economic rebalancing in China requires structural changes in growth models rather than just currency appreciation [41][42] - Policymakers in China prefer investment-driven growth, which complicates the shift towards consumption-led growth [41][42] Historical Context - Japan's experience with currency appreciation in the 1980s led to a loss of export competitiveness and did not result in sustainable economic rebalancing [32][46] - The report emphasizes that Japan's currency appreciation did not lead to a significant increase in private consumption as a share of GDP [54][53]

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks announced significant shareholder dividend plans after passing a more lenient "stress test" by regulators, aligning with the Trump administration's push for relaxed banking regulations [1] Group 1: Stress Test Results - Several large banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley, reported plans to increase quarterly dividends to shareholders [1] - JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley also announced stock buybacks worth several billion dollars [1] - This year's stress test was the first attempt following the Federal Reserve's adjustment of testing scenarios, with the theoretical recession severity being less severe than last year's [1] Group 2: Regulatory Context - The new testing framework was established before President Trump's re-election campaign but coincides with his administration's advocacy for easing banking regulations [1]

Market Capitalization Summary - Oracle has a market capitalization of 806.88 billion, while Visa stands at 655.99 billion [2] - Procter & Gamble has a market capitalization of 378.02 billion, and ExxonMobil is at 512.70 billion [2] - Mastercard's market capitalization is 470.87 billion, and Bank of America is at 375.11 billion [2] - UnitedHealth has a market capitalization of 308.53 billion, while ASML is at 310.77 billion [2] - Coca-Cola's market capitalization is 295.75 billion, and T-Mobile US Inc is at 273.60 billion [2] Stock Performance - Oracle's stock increased by 0.46 (+0.47%), while Visa's rose by 0.47 (+0.13%) [2] - Procter & Gamble's stock saw a slight increase of 2.68 (+0.48%), while ExxonMobil's stock increased by 1.92 (+1.20%) [2] - Mastercard's stock increased by 1.46 (+1.35%), and Bank of America's stock rose by 3.15 (+2.06%) [2] - UnitedHealth's stock decreased by 11.21 (-1.40%), while ASML's stock increased by 0.93 (+1.31%) [2] - Coca-Cola's stock increased by 14.05 (+4.50%), and T-Mobile US Inc's stock rose by 3.31 (+1.39%) [2] Additional Company Insights - McDonald's has a market capitalization of 212.78 billion, while AT&T is at 207.73 billion [3] - Uber's market capitalization is 192.79 billion, and Verizon's is at 184.08 billion [3] - Caterpillar's market capitalization is 183.87 billion, while Qualcomm is at 174.99 billion [3] - BlackRock has a market capitalization of 163.25 billion, and Citigroup is at 161.13 billion [3] - Boeing's market capitalization is 158.16 billion, while Pfizer is at 142.36 billion [3] Recent Market Movements - Intel's stock increased by 0.45 (+1.99%), while Dell Technologies rose by 0.82 (+0.16%) [4] - Rio Tinto's market capitalization is 746.07 billion, and Newmont is at 654.78 billion [4] - General Motors has a market capitalization of 494.87 billion, while Target is at 472.00 billion [4] - Ford's market capitalization is 451.14 billion, and Valero Energy is at 432.26 billion [4] - Vodafone's market capitalization is 241.45 billion, while Pinterest is at 270.30 billion [5]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 塞夫指出："OBBBA最重要的作用是延续多数到期税收条款，防止突然的财政紧缩。"他补充，法案允 许企业更快抵扣资本投资的条款可能提升未来几年投资，但"很可能以牺牲后续年份投资为代价"。 花旗策略师上周三报告称，法案通过将成经济顺风："近期的贸易协议（英、中，最终日、印、欧等） 与7月通过的（净刺激性）OBBBA应该能改善增长情绪。" 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普的"大漂亮"法案（OBBBA）以51–49票在参议院惊险通过，这项以全面税制改革和定向 激励为特征的大规模支出法案，预计将扩大联邦赤字，因此招致评级机构警告与多方批评。然而，部分 银行却认为其能提振美国经济。 美国银行家协会上周日公开信称"强烈支持"法案中多项条款提供的"急需的税收减免"。 野村证券发达市场首席经济学家大卫·塞夫（David Seif）表示："与什么都不通过相比，OBBBA未来几 年对美国经济几乎无疑是好事。"因特朗普2017年税改法案多项条款到期后，明年税率将大幅上升，而 该法案的短期吸引力在于避免2026年出现剧烈财政收缩。 优点 2017年《减税与就业法案》包含降低所得税率、增加儿童税收 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered. Core Insights - The timing of tariff impacts on the economy will depend on the actual application of tariffs and the outcomes of ongoing negotiations [4] - Trade negotiations typically take years rather than months, indicating that any near-term outcomes may be limited to framework agreements or narrow deals [8] - The interaction between country-specific tariffs and sector-based tariffs remains uncertain, with upcoming deadlines in July and August expected to provide clarity [9][11] Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - A series of tariff deadlines are approaching, with significant negotiations involving the US, Japan, India, Mexico, and Canada in July, followed by China in August [9] - Historical experiences suggest that trade negotiations can span several years, with the UK-US trade agreement serving as a reference point for future deals [12][22] - The report anticipates that the administration may seek to extend the July 9 deadline, citing progress in trade discussions [11] Economic Implications - Opinion polling indicates that voters do not currently perceive a negative impact from tariffs, which may reduce political risks associated with tariff escalations [13] - The economic effects of tariffs have not yet manifested in hard data, with delays expected in the transmission of price changes due to tariffs [30][31] - The report highlights that the effective tariff rate is expected to stabilize around mid-teens percentages, with ongoing legal challenges and negotiations influencing final levels [11][33] Sector and Country Tariffs - The report discusses the complexity of how country and sector tariffs will interact, particularly in the context of the USMCA and ongoing bilateral negotiations [15][16] - The categorization of trade with Canada and Mexico will significantly affect tariff levels, with a mix of Most Favored Nation (MFN) and USMCA compliance currently in place [20] - The transition from country to sector tariffs is a key focus, with implications for supply chains and revenue generation from tariffs [21][34]