for the final trade. Mike co >> you know the chart looks a little bit difficult I would say in Vistro but right now it's trading 18 times forward earnings and that's a relatively good valuation I think around 150 you want to start adding that one >> Tim >> yeah gold bug being uh tactical in gold here so I want to make it clear I'm selling calls in GDX I'm not abandoning this trade in fact hedging up but I also think gold's a little overdone here >> finan >> highest quality way to own AI infrastructure with ...

Group 1: Apple - Apple is expected to launch an AI-enabled iPhone and a foldable model by the end of the year, which could drive a significant upgrade cycle [3][5] - Concerns exist regarding the impact of rising memory prices on Apple's margins, but the company may pass these costs onto its wealthier customer base [4][5] - Historical data shows that major product upgrades, like the transition from the iPhone 4 to 6, resulted in substantial revenue growth, indicating potential for similar outcomes with the upcoming products [3] Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft is anticipated to report solid numbers, driven by the growth of OpenAI, which is projected to increase its revenue run rate from $6 billion in 2024 to $44 billion in the current year [8][10] - The company holds a 27% stake in OpenAI, which is influencing its stock performance amid concerns about funding for OpenAI's expansion [8][9] - Rising memory costs are expected to impact Microsoft's sales, particularly in its profitable Windows and Office segments, similar to the effects seen with Intel [10][11]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 0.03% to 6,915.16, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.28% to 23,501.24, driven by technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.58% to 49,098.70, primarily due to Intel's decline [1][2]. Company-Specific Developments - Intel's post-earnings drop significantly impacted the Dow and overall tech sentiment, while gains in Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and a more than 5% increase in Fortinet supported the Nasdaq's rise [2][3]. - Intel's fourth-quarter earnings report presented a negative outlook, citing supply constraints as a major concern for the upcoming months [3][4]. - The company reported that finished goods inventory has decreased to 40% of its peak level, leading to a hand-to-mouth supply management approach and anticipated supply shortages in Q1 [4]. Investor Sentiment - Despite Intel's disappointing performance, investors shifted focus towards artificial intelligence, boosting major tech stocks. The strong performance of Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Fortinet reflects a continued preference for high-quality growth and cybersecurity investments [5]. - Geopolitical uncertainties have driven investors towards safe-haven assets like gold and energy, as concerns about inflation and global instability persist [6].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered its price target on Microsoft to $600 from $650 while maintaining a Buy rating, attributing this change to sector-wide valuation compression despite improving near-term fundamentals [1] Group 1: Azure Growth Drivers - The ramp-up of Microsoft's Fairwater AI data centers is identified as a key near-term driver of Azure growth [2] - The Atlanta Fairwater facility became operational in October, and the Wisconsin site is expected to go live in the first quarter of 2026 [2] - UBS analysts conducted a site visit to the Wisconsin facility in mid-December, which informed their updated outlook [2] Group 2: Financial Estimates and Adjustments - UBS raised its Azure growth estimates ahead of Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter earnings report scheduled for January 28 [3] - The price target reduction reflects broader multiple compression across the software sector, despite the improved growth outlook [3] - The revised target is based on an assumed calendar-year 2027 free cash flow multiple of 47 times, down from 50 times previously, which still represents a justified premium relative to peers [4]

Core Insights - The fourth quarter earnings season is set to begin, with major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple leading the earnings calendar [1] - A consensus is forming around an optimistic outlook, with 13% of S&P 500 companies having reported earnings, and an estimated 8.2% increase in earnings per share for the fourth quarter, marking the potential for the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth [2] - Analysts had initially expected an 8.3% increase in earnings per share, a decrease from the previous quarter's 13.6% growth rate, but have since raised expectations, particularly for tech companies [3] Group 1 - Big Tech is expected to influence the earnings season significantly, while also testing the improved stock market breadth observed at the start of 2026 [4] - Key themes from 2025, such as artificial intelligence and economic policies, will continue to be relevant for investors [4] Group 2 - In addition to the major tech earnings, a diverse range of companies will report, including UnitedHealth, Boeing, General Motors, IBM, Starbucks, and others [5]

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Core Viewpoint - Microsoft shares are experiencing an increase ahead of the upcoming earnings report, with expectations for adjusted EPS of $3.88 and revenue of $80.23 billion [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Microsoft shares are up approximately 4% as the week concludes, although they are underperforming compared to the S&P 500 [2] - The tech sector is outperforming with a growth of 19.8%, while the S&P 500 has seen a rise of around 13% [3] - Microsoft ranks fifth among the "Mag 7" tech companies, only outperforming Meta and Amazon [4] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - UBS has reduced its price target for Microsoft shares from $650 to $600 but maintains a buy rating [1] - Canaccord Genuity also lowered its price target from $639 to $590 while keeping a buy rating [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Microsoft has faced a challenging quarter, with a notable decline after reaching highs near $555 [6] - Current support levels are identified between 448 and 455, with a potential bullish outlook indicated by a falling wedge pattern [7][8] - The RSI is nearing a point that could invalidate a downward trend, suggesting a more bullish sentiment if it crosses above the 50 midline [9] Group 4: Options Activity - There is significant options trading activity, with about 921,000 options traded on the day, indicating high interest [11] - Notable trades include the sale of 8,000 February 6th 480 strike calls for approximately $6.8 million and 2,350 February 13th 490 puts for about $7.4 million [12]

Microsoft stock (NASDAQ: MSFT) jumped about 4% today, putting the tech heavyweight back in the spotlight as investors reassess both its fundamentals and its valuation. An industry comparison from Benz... ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is experiencing a stock price decline of 15%, but the company is executing well and is expected to show significant returns on its investments in AI and data centers in the future [2][4]. Company Performance - Despite the recent stock decline, Microsoft is considered one of the best-executing companies globally, with a strong historical ability to compete and win in the market [2][4]. - The competitive landscape is challenging, particularly with Google’s cloud services outperforming Microsoft in web visits, which is a proxy for service engagement [3]. Market Sentiment - Current sentiment around Microsoft is positive, with expectations for a strong performance as the company continues to invest in AI and data centers [2][4][5]. - The recent stock pullback is viewed as a healthy correction, providing a potential entry point for long-term investors [7][8]. Earnings Outlook - Analysts are generally bullish on Microsoft ahead of its upcoming earnings report, although there has been some rerating of the stock price [9][10]. - The earnings report is seen as an opportunity to gain insights into the company's future direction, particularly regarding capital expenditures and AI investments [11][12]. Capital Expenditure Insights - Investors are keen to hear about Microsoft's capital expenditure plans, especially in relation to its $13 billion investment in OpenAI, which has significantly increased in value [12][13]. - Clarity on capital expenditures could serve as a catalyst for stock price movement, with potential for a significant rebound if the company indicates confidence in its spending strategy [13][14].

Key Points UBS analyst Karl Kierstead lowered his price target on Microsoft today. UBS still thinks Microsoft is a buy -- and could deliver a 28% profit this year. 10 stocks we like better than Microsoft › Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) stock jumped 4.1% through 12:25 p.m. ET Friday after Karl Kierstead, an analyst at investment bank UBS, lowered his price target on the software giant -- but insisted Microsoft stock is a buy anyway. Kierstead puts Microsoft's price target at $600, implying investors who ...