Q4 高增可期，单季盈利可持续性待检验。公司指引 Q4 营收327.6–340.4 亿元，同比 +66% 至 +73%，交 付 12–12.5 万辆，同比+65% 至 +72%。管理层表示，置换补贴退坡对需求冲击明显，年末难再现"翘尾 效应"，对 L60 等中低价车型影响更为突出。但全新ES8 订单充足、交付加速，使公司对 Q4 盈利仍具 信心。整车毛利率有望升至约 18%，其中新 ES8 超 20%。Q3 毛利改善主要来自规模扩大与供应链降 本，L90 等车型亦有贡献；分车型看，新 ES8 约20%，ES6/EC6 超 25%，ET5/ET5T 与 L90 约 15– 20%。非车业务毛利同样将改善，整体指引显示 Q4 毛利较 Q3 明显回升。我们认为 Q4盈利的达成条件 较为严苛，需综合毛利率达 17%、月交付超 6 万辆，并依赖较大幅度的通用化与自研率提升以实现极 限降本；若盈利更多来自技术授权等非车收入，其可持续性仍有待观察。 萤火虫领衔出海，品牌全球化路径成形。蔚来明确了2026 年的核心规划：蔚来品牌端，公司希望在明 年上半年某月实现 5 万辆月销，并将推出三款大尺寸车型（Q2 两款、Q3 一款） ...

26 年盈利预期进一步向好，公司新车周期明确。展望2026 年，车型与销售方面，公司将于全年推出3 款大型新车，其中Q2/Q3 分别上市2/1 款，加之ES8 和L90 仍处在强势新车型周期内，我们预计5 款车 型有望达到单月销售峰值超5 万/月，2026 年化销量有望冲刺60 万辆。费用方面，26 年研发费用指引依 然维持在20 亿元/季度，聚焦效率提升与核心技术迭代，费用率预计继续保持稳定。我们整体看好公司 改革经营与能效优化后，新车周期与盈利拐点带来的双重机遇，伴随核心技术迭代与高端产品竞争力持 续强化，以及ES8、L90、后续L80 等热门车型加持下，公司在中高端纯电汽车的市场地位进一步确 立，在2026 年有望实现全年度Non-GAAP 净利润转正。当前位置整体估值依然低于新势力，基本复苏 预期存续， 2026 有望实现较强的弹性与确定性成长空间。 盈利预测：我们预计公司2025-2027 年实现营收901.22/1310.65/1547.35亿元，归母净利润分别 为-155.26/-65.57/-27.27 亿元，给予"推荐"评级。 风险提示：市场竞争超预期，新车上市销量不及预期，新能源渗透不及预 ...

一份创下三年最佳毛利率、经营现金流转正、交付量猛增的财报，让蔚来汽车久违地回到了聚光灯下。 在当晚的业绩交流会上，蔚来创始人、董事长兼CEO李斌表示："强劲的业绩增长势头得益于蔚来、乐道及萤火虫品牌产品的综合竞争力。这些产品在各自细分市 场持续得到用户的青睐。" 图源：网络 回顾蔚来十一年发展历程，"亏损"始终是它最显著的标签。放眼整个中国造车新势力阵营，蔚来也堪称累计亏损最为严重的一家。 公开数据显示，自2016年至2024年，蔚来的净亏损额依次为25.73亿元、50.21亿元、96.39亿元、112.95亿元、53.04亿元、40.20亿元、144.37亿元、55.93亿元及224 亿元。九年累计，这一数字已高达802.82亿元，如同一座沉重的大山。 市场振奋之余，一个核心问题也随之浮现： 这家深陷亏损泥潭多年的造车新势力，是否真的迎来了命运的拐点？ 细读财报便会发现，表象之下，蔚来仍行走于险峻的山脊。左侧是初现曙光的效率提升与成本优化，右侧则是深不见底的净亏损与尚未经历充分检验的规模困 境。 图源：网络 李斌主导的这场"效率革命"，为蔚来赢得了续命的时间，但通往最终盈利的征途，依然道阻且长。 效率红利兑 ...

今年前三季度，蔚来虽然累计亏损约 152 亿元，但第三季度亏损 34.8 亿元，同比收窄 31.2% 。 而且蔚来在第三季度多个指标都创下近年来新高，其中所有车型交付 8.7 万辆，同比增长 40.8% ；营收 217.9 亿元，同比增长 16.7% ；整车 毛利率提升至 14.7% ，创近三年新高。 导语："蔚来"ES8价格低了，蔚来收入高了；蔚来销量多了，"蔚来"汽车卖的少了。 蔚来有信心在今年第四季度达成盈利目标，在蔚来第三季度财报电话会上，蔚来创始人、董事长李斌再次表示。 李斌的信心来自乐道和全新 ES8 的销量和高毛利，他甚至乐观的表示， 2026 年的经营目标是整年盈利。 但在蔚来 "扭亏"的路上， 蔚来品牌的高端车型销量下降，研发费用缩减， 是正在发生的"代价"。 李斌曾经的高端车路线，在现实面前不得不 "弯下腰"，向低端车市场获取现金流。 "蔚来"汽车少卖了3.7万辆 蔚来季度财报显示，乐道品牌自 2024 年 9 月份上市后， 销量按季度算持续攀升，从最初的 832 辆，已经提升到 2025 年三季度的 37656 辆；乐道"出道"至今，已累计交付超过 9 万辆。 但同时， "蔚来"品牌的销 ...

【宏观】9月消费不及预期，不改12月混沌局面——2025年9月美国零售数据点评 9月美国消费环比增速低于预期，主因9月特朗普对华威胁加征100%关税，贸易摩擦升级打击了居民消费 意愿，同时9月底美国政府面临停摆风险，大量政府雇员的薪资将暂停发放，也进一步限制了居民消费的 能力。从降息节奏看，9月美国消费数据低于预期，但时效性不足，或不足以"打动"鹰派官员，12月降息 悬念犹存。 （赵格格/周欣平） 2025-11-26 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【建筑建材】商业航天发射需求增长，运载火箭景气度有望持续提升——低轨卫星行业研究系列之三 运载火箭为多级航天运载工具，核心服务于航天器入轨需求，性能由多系统协同决定。结构、控制、动力 ...

Core Viewpoint - NIO's founder and CEO Li Bin emphasized the company's commitment to focusing solely on the automotive business and not diversifying into other sectors like AI or robotics [2][7]. Financial Performance - Li Bin expressed confidence in achieving profitability in Q4 2025, with a target revenue of between 327.58 billion to 340.39 billion yuan [4][5]. - In Q3 2025, NIO reported an adjusted net loss of 2.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.0% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.7% [5]. - The gross margin for NIO in Q3 2025 was 13.9%, the highest quarterly margin in three years, with a vehicle gross margin of 14.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4 percentage points [5][6]. Product Strategy - NIO plans to launch three new electric vehicle models in 2026, alongside the recently introduced ES8 and L90, aiming to enhance gross margins through cost reduction and expense control [6]. - The company is focusing on high-priced, high-margin models, which have shown better-than-expected delivery numbers [5]. Market Positioning - NIO currently holds less than 2% of the global automotive market share, indicating significant growth potential within the automotive sector [7]. - Li Bin stated that while the robotics market is substantial, NIO will not enter this field immediately, preferring to concentrate on selling cars [9]. Company Focus - NIO aims to become a "super-focused" company, with all future business closely related to the automotive industry [7]. - The company has previously ventured into other areas, such as AR glasses, but has not made significant progress in those sectors [8].

Core Viewpoint - NIO's founder and CEO Li Bin emphasized the company's commitment to focusing solely on the automotive business and not diversifying into other sectors, particularly in response to the competitive landscape of new energy vehicles [2][12][14]. Financial Performance - NIO expressed confidence in achieving profitability by the fourth quarter of 2025, with a target for full-year profitability in 2026 [6][11]. - In Q3 2025, NIO reported a significant reduction in adjusted net losses to 2.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 38% year-over-year and 33.7% quarter-over-quarter [7]. - The company’s revenue guidance for Q4 2025 is projected between 32.758 billion yuan and 34.039 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 13.9%, marking the highest quarterly gross margin in three years [8][9]. Product Strategy - NIO plans to launch new high-margin models, including the all-new ES8 and the L90, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth and improved gross margins [11]. - The company is focusing on organic growth and optimizing financial metrics such as gross profit and gross margin, with the current vehicle gross margin at 14.7%, up 1.6 percentage points year-over-year [8][9]. Market Position - NIO currently holds less than 2% of the global automotive market share, indicating significant room for growth within the automotive sector [14]. - The company aims to maintain a strong focus on electric vehicle products and services, distancing itself from ventures into AI and robotics, despite recognizing the potential in those markets [12][16]. Competitive Landscape - NIO's strategy contrasts with other new energy vehicle manufacturers like XPeng and Li Auto, which are exploring AI and robotics, with XPeng's CEO claiming a 99.999% probability of achieving profitability in Q4 2025 [7][8]. - Li Bin acknowledged the potential of the robotics market but reiterated that NIO's current priority is to solidify its position in the automotive industry [16].

Core Insights - The performance of four listed new energy vehicle companies in China, namely Leap Motor, Xpeng Motors, NIO, and Li Auto, shows significant divergence in their third-quarter results for 2025, highlighting the competitive landscape in the market [1] Sales Performance - Leap Motor achieved sales of 173,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, leading the market - Xpeng Motors sold 116,000 units, up 149.3% year-on-year - Li Auto's sales reached 93,200 units, a decline of 39.0% year-on-year - NIO sold 87,100 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 40.8% [2] Revenue Data - Li Auto led in revenue with 27.4 billion yuan, although this represented a year-on-year decline of 36.2% - NIO reported revenue of 21.79 billion yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year - Xpeng Motors generated revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, a 101.8% increase year-on-year - Leap Motor's revenue was 19.45 billion yuan, reflecting a 97.3% year-on-year growth [2] Profitability - The profitability landscape showed "one profit and three losses" among the four companies - Leap Motor achieved a net profit of 150 million yuan, marking consecutive quarterly profitability - Xpeng Motors reported a net loss of 380 million yuan, significantly reduced from 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year - Li Auto recorded a net loss of 620 million yuan, down from a profit of 2.8 billion yuan last year - NIO's net loss was 3.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.2% from 5.06 billion yuan year-on-year [2] Gross Margin Analysis - Xpeng Motors led with a gross margin of 20.1%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year - Li Auto's gross margin was 16.3%, which adjusted for the recall costs of the Li MEGA model, would be 20.4% - Leap Motor reported a gross margin of 14.5%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year - NIO's gross margin stood at 13.9%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Technological Innovation - The four companies are actively pursuing technological innovations, particularly in the field of physical AI - Xpeng Motors plans to launch three Robotaxi models by 2026 and aims for mass production of humanoid robots by the end of the year - Li Auto has invested heavily in AI, with a monthly usage rate of its VLA driver model reaching 91% and an expected annual R&D expenditure of 12 billion yuan, with over 6 billion yuan allocated to AI [4] - Leap Motor emphasizes self-research and development, achieving significant advancements in core components and technologies [4] Competitive Strategies - NIO continues to enhance its battery swap technology to create a differentiated competitive advantage and is accelerating its overseas market expansion [5] - Industry experts indicate that the third-quarter financial data reflects a new phase of differentiated development among Chinese new energy vehicle companies, with technology innovation, cost control, and globalization being critical success factors [5]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【蔚来李斌：汽车行业迈入决赛，未来专注汽车业务】11月27日，蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌称， 汽车行业已进入决赛阶段。他预计2030年竞争格局会相对清晰，2035年有望形成稳定局面。 李斌表 示，未来很长时间，蔚来会专注汽车业务。他认为人形机器人等业务有挖掘潜能，但汽车年销三千万辆 的市场，仍有巨大增量空间待蔚来深耕。 ...

Core Insights - NIO reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with vehicle deliveries reaching 87,071 units, a year-on-year increase of 40.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.8% [1] - Revenue for Q3 2025 was 21.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.7%, marking record highs for both delivery volume and revenue [1][2] - The company achieved a gross margin of 14.7% for vehicles and a comprehensive gross margin of 13.9%, the highest levels in nearly three years [1][2] - NIO's cash reserves increased significantly to 36.65 billion yuan, indicating improved operational health with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow [1][2] Q4 Guidance - NIO provided optimistic guidance for Q4, expecting to deliver between 120,000 and 125,000 vehicles, with projected revenue between 32.76 billion and 34.04 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 66.3% to 72.8% [3] - The company aims for a vehicle gross margin of around 18% in Q4, with expectations for a significant increase in the delivery volume of the new ES8 model [3] Brand Strategy and Market Position - NIO's three-brand strategy ("NIO," "Lao Dao," and "Firefly") has shown significant results, with October deliveries of 17,143 units for NIO, 17,342 units for Lao Dao, and 5,912 units for Firefly, indicating strong competitive advantages across different market segments [4] - The company plans to launch three new large vehicles next year, enhancing its product lineup and aligning with market trends [4] Market Trends - The penetration rate of pure electric vehicles in the passenger car market reached 55% in Q3, with pure electric vehicle sales growing by 26% year-on-year, while range-extended and plug-in hybrid models saw declines [6] - In the high-end market, the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles is rapidly increasing, with significant growth potential identified in the segment priced above 300,000 yuan [6] Infrastructure Development - NIO has established a comprehensive energy infrastructure with 8,386 charging facilities, including 3,581 battery swap stations and 4,805 charging stations, leading the industry in scale [7] - The rapid deployment of battery swap stations enhances user experience and alleviates range anxiety, providing a competitive edge over traditional automakers [7] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve profitability in the upcoming year, with expectations for large vehicles to contribute significantly to overall sales and gross margin growth [8] - NIO's focus on high-quality development and sustainable growth positions it well within the evolving automotive industry landscape [8]