作 者丨 易佳颖 编 辑丨巫燕玲 3月2 0日，拼多多发布2 0 2 4年第四季度及全年财报。财报显示，拼多多2 0 2 4年营收为3 9 3 8亿元，较上年同期的2 4 7 6亿 元增长5 9%。归属于拼多多普通股股东的净利润为11 2 4亿元，同比增长8 7%。 从单季度看，拼多多增速放缓。 平台有无诚意，全看取舍与进退。在现阶段，要为消费者提供更优质产品也要与商家共同做增长，拼多多主动选 择"退"：真金白银的激励和补贴，拼多多已预料到短期会承受营收压力。 业绩会上，拼多多集团董事长、联席CEO陈磊回应称，收入放缓，源于大量针对生态系统的投资，影响了短期财务状 况，包括1 0 0亿元的费用减免计划、偏远地区物流支持等。 就在财报发布后近一周时间内，拼多多更再度传出将再投千亿扶持商家？该消息近期在业内引发热议。知情人士透 露，这千亿资源将主要用于帮助中小商家高质量转型升级，构建商家、用户、平台多方共赢的电商生态。对此，拼多 多方面回应称，相关事宜公司正在研究，有信息会第一时间对外公布。 "百亿减免" "电商西进" "新质商家扶持计划"……盘点这些已经落定的高质量战略布局，或可窥探拼多多接下来千亿扶 持的主要 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue was 110.6 billion yuan (yoy +24%), which was 4.7% lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations, while the Non-GAAP net profit reached 29.85 billion yuan (yoy +17.2%), exceeding expectations by 4.4% [4][6] - The online marketing services revenue was 57 billion yuan (yoy +17.1%), aligning with expectations, while transaction services revenue was 53.6 billion yuan (yoy +33.3%), falling short of expectations by 9.6% [4][5] - The company is focusing on enhancing quality supply through initiatives like the "Hundred Billion Subsidy" program, which aims to support high-quality merchants and improve consumer experience [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 393.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 56.4% and an adjusted net profit of 122.34 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 80.2% [8] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 482.47 billion yuan, 556.02 billion yuan, and 620.58 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 24.6%, 15.2%, and 11.6% [6][8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 135.84 billion yuan, 170.15 billion yuan, and 188.91 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.0%, 25.3%, and 11.0% [6][8] Business Segment Insights - The company is facing competitive pressure in its overseas business, particularly with Temu's performance in the U.S. being below expectations due to increased competition from platforms like Amazon [4][5] - The company is adapting to potential tariff impacts by promoting a semi-managed model for merchants to mitigate costs associated with U.S. tariffs [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown better-than-expected profit performance, with a focus on sustainable platform ecosystem development despite lower-than-expected revenue growth. The revenue for the quarter was 110.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with advertising revenue at 57 billion yuan (yoy +17%) and payment channel revenue at 53.6 billion yuan (yoy +33%) [2][10]. - The company is actively investing in its platform ecosystem, which is expected to yield long-term benefits. Short-term revenue growth has slowed due to initiatives aimed at high-quality development, including a 10 billion yuan fee reduction plan that has helped over 10 million merchants improve operational efficiency [2][10]. - The company is expanding its international presence through TEMU, which has entered over 60 countries, and is adapting its business model to mitigate overseas policy uncertainties [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 29.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 25%. The gross margin was 57%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the company covering shipping costs in western regions and a decline in the proportion of high-margin commissions [3][11]. - The total expenses for the quarter were 34% of revenue, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses down to 28.3% [3][11]. Future Outlook - The company expects growth to improve in the second half of 2025 as the impacts of platform ecosystem investments and national subsidies are digested, alongside a recovery in domestic consumption. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 480.3 billion, 593.5 billion, and 676.6 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 22%, 24%, and 14% respectively [4][5]. - The projected non-GAAP net profits for the same period are 130.2 billion, 163.2 billion, and 185.7 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 25%, and 14% [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The company's Q4 revenue was 110.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with advertising revenue at 57 billion yuan (up 17% YoY) and payment channel revenue at 53.6 billion yuan (up 33% YoY). However, revenue growth was below expectations due to ongoing investments in platform ecosystem development [1][8] - The non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 29.9 billion yuan, a 14% increase YoY, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 25%. The gross profit margin was 57%, down 4 percentage points YoY, primarily due to the company covering full shipping costs for orders in the western regions and a decline in the proportion of high-margin commissions [2][9] - The company is actively addressing overseas uncertainties, with its TEMU platform now operating in over 60 countries, including the US and Germany. The company plans to introduce a third-party platform model to mitigate tariff risks and enhance supply diversity [2][9] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 480.3 billion yuan, 593.5 billion yuan, and 676.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 24%, and 14%. Non-GAAP net profit projections for the same years are 130.2 billion yuan, 163.2 billion yuan, and 185.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7%, 25%, and 14% [3][12] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 10x, 8x, and 7x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][12]

Core Viewpoint - PDD Holdings reported mixed financial results for Q4 and fiscal 2024, with revenues of $15.15 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, but missing analyst expectations by approximately $746 million. Earnings per share were $2.78, beating estimates by 6 cents [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company is focusing on high-quality development and ecosystem investments over short-term financial gains, leading to a significant moderation in revenue growth compared to previous quarters [2][6]. - Non-GAAP operating profit increased 14% year-over-year to RMB28 billion, but the operating profit margin declined to 24% from 28% in the same quarter of 2023 due to substantial investments in merchant support and logistics [7][12]. Stock Performance - PDD's stock has gained 11.1% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector's return of 1.9% [3]. Valuation Insights - PDD stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x, significantly below the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry average of 21.4x, indicating potential market concerns rather than an overlooked opportunity [8][9]. - The company has a robust cash position of RMB331.6 billion (approximately $45.4 billion) as of December 31, 2024, although cash generated from operating activities declined to RMB29.5 billion in Q4 2024 from RMB36.9 billion in Q4 2023 [12]. Future Outlook - Management has indicated a continued focus on ecosystem investments over immediate financial optimization, with expectations of fluctuations in revenue growth and profits through 2025 [13][14]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is $65.53 billion, indicating a growth of 19.82% from the previous year, while the consensus for earnings is $12.21 per share, suggesting a 7.86% growth from 2024 [14][15]. Investment Considerations - Current shareholders may consider holding PDD stock during this transitional period, while new investors might benefit from waiting for clearer signs of the company's investments yielding results or a more attractive entry point [18][19].

文｜ 闰然 统筹｜ 张鹏霞 视觉 | 诺言 拼多多财报出炉了，这也是拼多多"百亿减免"后首份财报。 2024年第四季度及全年财报数据显示，拼多多四季度营收1106亿元，全年营收3938亿元。 财务业绩稳健，虽然营收增速放缓，但新增长故事体现在了背后的生态——比如西部地区的订单量同比 实现双位数增长，偏远地区终于成为了"包邮区"。 成立十年后，拼多多已晋升为毫无争议的电商巨头。从发展时间线来看，拼多多引爆了巨大的购物需 求，也经历过多个亮眼的业绩增长阶段。 经过长期的高速发展，规模扩张不再是第一要义，取而代之的是生态建设。 以前消费者需要什么，拼多多就补贴什么。现在，拼多多主动"减速换挡"，对产业进行"新质供给"扶 持。 "精耕细作"的竞争阶段来了 过去一年，拼多多先后落地"百亿减免""电商西进""新质商家扶持计划"等一系列惠商新举措，推动上千 个农牧产区、产业集群逐步转向"新质供给"的发展阶段。 用技术打破信息壁垒，用物流消弭地理隔阂，太多真实案例让人动容。 在甘肃天水，怀上二胎后便不再外出打工的宝妈谢瑞玲加入了卖花牛苹果的队伍中。天水花牛苹果近年 在拼多多热销，让谢瑞玲在离家近、能顾家的同时，工资也比打零工 ...

Core Insights - PDD (NASDAQ: PDD) reported Q4-24 results with revenue 5% below consensus and EBIT 3% below consensus, primarily due to a significant miss in transaction service revenue, which grew by 33% year-over-year compared to the consensus expectation of 52% year-over-year growth [1] - Online marketing service revenue growth was recorded at 17%, indicating a slower growth rate compared to previous expectations [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q4-24 was lower than expected, coming in at a 5% shortfall against consensus estimates [1] - EBIT also fell short, being 3% below consensus, highlighting potential challenges in operational efficiency or market conditions [1] - Transaction service revenue growth of 33% year-over-year was significantly below the anticipated 52% growth, suggesting a potential slowdown in this segment [1] - Online marketing service revenue growth of 17% reflects a more stable but slower growth trajectory compared to previous periods [1]

Core Insights - PDD is identified as a potential multibagger investment opportunity due to its rapid growth and market positioning in China's e-commerce sector [1][4]. Company Overview - PDD, founded in 2015, has quickly become one of China's fastest-growing e-commerce companies, attracting hundreds of millions of shoppers with its discount marketplace for group purchases [2]. - The company has expanded into higher-end markets, created an agricultural marketplace connecting farmers directly to consumers, and launched Temu to facilitate overseas sales [2]. Financial Performance - From 2016 to 2023, PDD's revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 142%, and it became profitable in 2021, with net income growing at a CAGR of 178% over the next two years [3]. - Despite a stock price drop of over 40% in the following four years, this decline presents a buying opportunity for investors [4]. Growth Strategies - PDD's growth strategies include focusing on lower-income second- and third-tier cities, leveraging initial growth to compete in first-tier cities, and expanding its product offerings to include more brand-name products [5][6][8]. - The company has disrupted traditional retail by connecting farmers directly to consumers through its agricultural marketplace, providing a competitive edge in the online grocery market [9]. - PDD's overseas marketplace, Temu, aims to challenge Amazon by linking Chinese sellers directly to foreign buyers, allowing for lower prices and shorter delivery times [10]. Future Projections - Analysts project PDD's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to rise by 61% and 87% respectively in 2024, with further growth expected in 2025 [11]. - The growth projections are contingent on the stabilization of China's economy and PDD's ability to gain market share against competitors like Alibaba and JD [12]. - If PDD's performance aligns with analysts' estimates, its stock price could potentially rise to around $2,640 per share by 2035, assuming a more favorable valuation [14]. Investment Considerations - PDD's stock is currently trading at 10 times forward earnings, which is considered attractive given its growth potential [13]. - Investors are encouraged to consider PDD as a viable investment option, especially as many are currently avoiding top growth stocks in China [15].

Core Viewpoint - PDD Holdings Inc reported disappointing fourth-quarter revenues, leading to a decline in share price amid a busy earnings season [1] Revenue Performance - PDD reported quarterly revenues of RMB 111 billion ($15.3 billion), representing a 24% year-on-year increase, but fell short of consensus expectations by RMB 6 billion ($827 million) [2] - Online marketing services revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [2] Transaction Revenue Insights - Transaction revenues increased by 33% year-on-year, primarily driven by international expansion and Temu, but also missed consensus by RMB 6 billion [3] - The shift in Temu's business model from a full-entrusted model to a semi-entrusted model has led to a significant shortfall in transaction commission revenue [4] Investor Sentiment - Investors are concerned about the company's investments aimed at building a healthy ecosystem, which negatively impacts short-term profitability [5] - PDD is focusing on developing its platform ecosystem and adapting to domestic competition [5] Analyst Ratings - Benchmark analyst Fawne Jiang reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $160 [6] - Goldman Sachs analyst Ronald Keung maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $157 [6]

以下是 拼多多 4Q24 的财报电话会纪要，财报解读请移步《 拼多多: "跌下神坛"，傲骨还能撑多久？ 》 一、财报核心信息回顾 1. 营收情况：2024 年第四季度营收达到 1106 亿元人民币，同比增长 24%；2024 年全年营收总计 3938 亿元人民币， 同比增长 59%。 2. 成本与费用：2024 年第四季度总成本为 478 亿元人民币，同比增长 36%，主要因履行费用和支付处理费用增加； 2024 年第四季度运营费用为 372 亿元人民币，同比增长 19%；非 GAAP 下运营费用为 351 亿元人民币，占总收入的 32%。 3. 利润与收益：2024 年第四季度 GAAP 下营业利润为 256 亿元人民币，非 GAAP 下营业利润为 280 亿元人民币， 营业利润率为 25%；全年非 GAAP 下营业利润为 1183 亿元人民币；2024 年第四季度归属于普通股东的净利润为 274 亿元人民币，全年为 1124 亿元人民币。 4. 现金流：2024 年第四季度经营活动产生的净现金流为 295 亿元人民币，全年为 1219 亿元人民币；截至 2024 年 底，公司拥有 3316 亿元人民币的现 ...