Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on the strong performance and growth potential observed in the report [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its strong operational trends in Q4 with new store openings, seasonal demand, and product launches, indicating sustained growth momentum [2]. - The overseas expansion is accelerating, with a target of 200 stores by the end of the year, reflecting a significant increase from 140 stores reported mid-year [2]. - The company's IP ecosystem and supply chain optimization are strengthening its competitive barriers, with successful performance from key IPs and new product launches expected to drive sales [2]. - The financial forecasts indicate substantial growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected net profits of 112.8 billion, 166.2 billion, and 200.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 13.038 billion in 2024 to 59.496 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 106.92% to 15.21% [3][4]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 3.125 billion in 2024 to 20.032 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 189% and 21% in the respective years [3][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 2.36 in 2024 to 14.92 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [3][4]. Key Financial Ratios - The company is expected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of 29.26% in 2024, increasing to 32.59% by 2027 [5]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease from 26.80% in 2024 to 19.27% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [5]. - The current ratio is expected to improve from 3.63 in 2024 to 5.29 in 2027, reflecting strong liquidity [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, China's consumer market is experiencing a divergence, with traditional consumer goods showing weak growth while "emotional consumption" characterized by emotional connection, cultural identity, and immersive experiences is booming [1][4] - In the first half of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24,545.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of only 5.0% [1] - The retail sales of goods amounted to 21,797.8 billion yuan, growing by 5.1% [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Moutai, a representative of traditional high-end consumption, reported a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, marking the first time in nearly a decade that its growth rate fell to single digits [1] - Pop Mart achieved a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 204.4% and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% [1] - Miniso's second-quarter revenue reached 4.97 billion yuan, growing by 23.1% year-on-year, while its subsidiary TOP TOY saw a revenue increase of 87.0% [2] Group 3: Consumer Trends - The rise of emotional consumption reflects a deep-seated desire for emotional comfort and cultural identity among consumers [4][5] - Consumers are shifting their spending from traditional goods to emotional products, indicating a change in consumption logic from "need" to "liking" and from "utility" to "emotion" [4][5] - The emotional consumption trend is not just limited to toys and jewelry but is also evident in various sectors, including tea beverages and snacks [18][20][23] Group 4: Emotional Consumption Dynamics - Emotional consumption is characterized by consumers being willing to pay for emotional experiences, social attributes, and identity recognition rather than just the products themselves [18] - The success of brands like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold illustrates the shift from functional attributes to emphasizing the emotional and cultural aspects of products [11][12] - The average overlap rate of Lao Pu Gold consumers with luxury brands like Louis Vuitton and Cartier is as high as 77.3%, indicating its entry into the high-end market [13] Group 5: Future Implications - The rise of emotional consumption is reshaping the entire consumption landscape, prompting brands to reassess their value creation strategies [25] - Companies that can accurately capture emotional needs and provide meaningful experiences are likely to thrive in this new consumption era [25]

Core Viewpoint - Citi's report indicates that the recent stock price correction of Pop Mart (9992.HK) is primarily due to market concerns over the declining resale prices of LABUBU, but does not reflect a decrease in IP popularity [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - The decline in LABUBU resale prices has raised concerns in the market [1] - Citi does not view this as a sign of diminishing IP heat [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is taking measures to replenish stock based on real demand, which is expected to enhance IP competitiveness in the long run [1] - Improvements in customer experience and efforts to curb resale activities are part of the company's strategy [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendation - Investors are encouraged to focus on sales trends, particularly the ongoing rapid sell-out phenomenon in the company's own channels [1] - Citi reaffirms a "Buy" rating and maintains a target price of HKD 398 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Pop Mart's stock price, which has dropped nearly 25% from its peak on August 26, is primarily driven by market concerns over the second-hand prices of certain popular products and the sustainability of their popularity. However, the company believes that second-hand prices are not a reasonable indicator of popularity, as the current price adjustments are mainly driven by supply expansion rather than changes in demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The fluctuation in the second-hand prices of Labubu is attributed to increased supply rather than a decline in popularity, as evidenced by stable or increasing prices for products not affected by capacity changes [2]. - The company maintains a leading position in the artist IP toy market, with exclusive brand positioning and control over supply, which allows for a highly expandable product lifecycle [2]. - The balance of supply and demand is crucial for enhancing fan experience and mitigating the impact of counterfeit products [2]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Pricing Strategy - Recent product launches, such as Mini Labubu, have generated significant fan engagement and strong sales performance in North America, showcasing the company's ability to blend product and social play [3]. - The company has demonstrated flexibility in pricing strategies, as seen with the price increase of SP plush toys to 159 yuan, indicating strong pricing power in the rubber plush category [3]. - Upcoming quarterly results are anticipated to be positive, driven by pre-sale shipments and new product launches, with Q4 expected to benefit from the overseas peak season and anniversary series [3]. Group 3: Long-term Growth Drivers - The company is expected to see substantial growth in 2026, driven by rapid capacity expansion in plush products and a low base in the first three quarters [4]. - The global commercial value of the company's largest IP, The Monsters, has significant growth potential, with the top five IPs showing strong momentum [4]. - The company plans to expand its overseas store count to over 180 by 2025, enhancing brand influence through flagship store openings [4]. Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 14%/12%/12% to 116 billion, 170 billion, and 220 billion yuan, respectively, driven by capacity expansion and product upgrades [4]. - The target price has been increased by 14% to 396 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the company's high growth potential and expanding global IP influence [4].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Pop Mart (09992) will experience multiple consumption peaks in the coming months, driven by sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1] Group 1: Sales Forecast - The firm expects sales for Pop Mart in Q3 to grow over 180% year-on-year, compared to 235% in the previous quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target price of HKD 382 for Pop Mart, corresponding to projected P/E ratios of 42x, 32x, and 26x for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - Despite recent cautious sentiment in the market towards Pop Mart, Morgan Stanley's outlook remains positive, drawing parallels to Pokémon's strategy in 2021-2022 to increase card production to address speculation and enhance customer experience [1] - The report addresses investor concerns regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart, asserting that the IP collectibles market is substantial and continues to grow, with Pop Mart's differentiated business model poised to capture the increasing "kidult" consumer demand [1] Group 3: Earnings Projections - Morgan Stanley projects adjusted earnings per share for Pop Mart to be HKD 2.58, 9.90, 11.87, and 14.67 for the years 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company is estimated to hold a 5.7% market share in the global IP products market this year, compared to Disney's 43.1% and Sanrio's 8.2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart (09992) is expected to experience multiple consumption peaks in the coming months, driven by sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1] Group 1: Sales Forecast - The firm anticipates that Pop Mart's sales will grow over 180% year-on-year in Q3, compared to 235% in the previous quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target price of HKD 382 for Pop Mart, corresponding to projected price-to-earnings ratios of 42x, 32x, and 26x for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - Despite recent cautious sentiment in the market towards Pop Mart, Morgan Stanley's outlook remains positive, drawing parallels to Pokémon's strategy in 2021-2022 to increase card production to address speculation and enhance customer experience [1] - The report counters investor concerns regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart, asserting that the market for IP collectibles is substantial and continues to grow, with confidence in Pop Mart's differentiated business model and competitive advantages to capture the rising "kidult" consumer demand [1] Group 3: Earnings Projections - Morgan Stanley projects adjusted earnings per share for Pop Mart to be HKD 2.58, 9.90, 11.87, and 14.67 for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The company is estimated to hold a 5.7% market share in the global IP products market this year, compared to Disney's 43.1% and Sanrio's 8.2% [1]

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices rose to $3702.8 per ounce on September 17, marking a nearly 10% increase from $3378 per ounce on August 18 [1] - Popop, a jewelry brand under Bubble Mart, launched its first solid gold series featuring products like gold beads, pendants, gold bars, and ornaments [1] - Within three days of launch, foot traffic in two Popop stores significantly increased, leading to a noticeable rise in sales [1] Group 2 - The new solid gold series is not a limited edition, with prices ranging from 1300 to 1700 RMB per gram, indicating a premium over market prices [5] - Unlike traditional gold brands that use a "gold price + processing fee" pricing strategy, Popop employs a fixed price model for its products [5] - The demand for emotional value from consumers has contributed to the rising popularity of Bubble Mart's IP, reflected in the company's performance [5] Group 3 - Bubble Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [5] - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 4.71 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 362.8% [5] - The company's revenue surpassed 10 billion RMB in the first half of the year, with net profit exceeding the total for the entire year of 2024 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates a contrary view to the market's cautious sentiment towards Pop Mart, suggesting that increased supply can help address speculation issues and expand the customer base, thereby driving sustained demand growth [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Supply - Despite recent market caution regarding Pop Mart, Morgan Stanley believes that increasing production capacity will resolve speculation problems and broaden the customer base [1] - The report draws parallels with the Pokémon experience, asserting that increased capacity can lead to sustained demand growth [1] Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - Upcoming consumer peak seasons (National Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas) are expected to act as catalysts for sales growth [1] - With sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions, Morgan Stanley anticipates that Pop Mart's sales momentum will continue and reverse the market's pessimistic sentiment [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Pop Mart's sales in the third quarter will increase by over 180% year-on-year [1] - The firm maintains a target price of 382 HKD for Pop Mart and an "Overweight" rating, listing it as a top pick in the industry [1] - Projections for adjusted earnings per share from 2025 to 2027 have been provided, estimating Pop Mart's share in the global IP product market at 5.7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the market sentiment towards Pop Mart has become cautious, viewing the company's increased supply as a negative factor. However, the firm believes that this approach can lead to a larger customer base and sustained demand, similar to the Pokémon card market's experience from 2021 to 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market's recent cautious sentiment towards Pop Mart is attributed to the perception of increased supply as a negative factor [1] - Morgan Stanley draws parallels with Pokémon's strategy of increasing card production to address speculation and enhance customer experience, resulting in a larger customer base despite a drop in secondary market prices [1] Group 2: Market Potential and Growth - The IP product market is considered substantial and continuously growing, with Pop Mart's differentiated business model and competitive advantages positioned to capture the increasing kidult consumer demand [1] - Upcoming consumption peaks, including China's National Day and Western holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas, are expected to act as catalysts for sales growth [1] Group 3: Sales Forecast and Valuation - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Pop Mart's sales will grow over 180% year-on-year in Q3, compared to 235% in the previous quarter [1] - The firm maintains a target price of HKD 382 for Pop Mart and an "Overweight" rating, listing it as an industry favorite [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for Pop Mart from 2025 to 2027 are projected at HKD 2.58, 9.90, 11.87, and 14.67 respectively, with an estimated global market share of 5.7% in the IP products sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) has seen a stock increase of over 3%, currently trading at 263.4 HKD with a transaction volume of 2.791 billion HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Huatai Securities suggests that recent fluctuations in the secondary market prices of Pop Mart's products may be due to the company's proactive supply increase, which does not hinder its long-term development logic [1] - The company is recognized as a leading player in China's trendy toy industry, possessing full industry chain operational capabilities for IP toys [1] - Pop Mart continues to achieve high-quality growth through outstanding IP creation, operational capabilities, and diverse consumer touchpoints [1] Group 2: Growth Potential - The expansion of Pop Mart's overseas business and the increasing influence of its products internationally are expected to unlock a second growth driver for the company [1] - HSBC Global Research reports that Labubu has become a global cultural symbol, comparable to Kaws and Bearbrick, with a development cycle exceeding 10 years [1] - Labubu is set to begin active collaborations with global brands in 2024, suggesting that it is premature to declare its peak [1] Group 3: Investment Ratings - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of 379 HKD, which corresponds to projected price-to-earnings ratios of 41.5 times and 30.8 times for the next two years [1]