Key Takeaways PONY plans to expand its robotaxi fleet from 250 to more than 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025. A new partnership with Xihu Group supports large-scale Gen 7 robotaxi deployment in Shenzhen. PONY also joined forces with Toyota and Uber to boost mass production and global deployment.Pony AI (PONY) , an autonomous-driving company based in Guangzhou, China, is accelerating its robotaxi ambitions. The company, which had around 250 robotaxis in its fleet late last year, aims to have in excess of ...

Key Takeaways PONY shares fell 29.5% in 30 days after surging more than 245% from mid-April to mid-May 2025. The company plans to grow its robotaxi fleet to over 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025. PONY's local sourcing and key partnerships help shield it from tariff risks and supply shocks.Pony AI (PONY) , an autonomous-driving company based in Guangzhou, China, has seen its shares tumble 29.5% over the past 30 days, faring worse than the Zacks  Transportation - Equipment and Leasing industry’s 1.4% decli ...

Summary of Robotaxi Industry and Key Players Industry Overview - Robotaxi represents the ultimate model for commercializing Level 4 (L4) and above autonomous driving, facing safety and pricing concerns but expected to lower costs through technological maturity and economies of scale [1][2][3] - The Robotaxi operation is projected to generate an additional $260 billion in the domestic market by 2030, with a penetration rate of at least 10% [1][3] Key Players and Developments - **Waymo**: - Increased sensor configurations and partnered with Zeekr, capturing a significant market share in the San Francisco ride-hailing market with a 20% order market share, fleet size of 1,500 vehicles, and over 10 million paid rides [1][3] - **Xiaoma Zhixing (Pony.ai)**: - Collaborated with GAC Aion to reduce new model costs by 70%, with an operational area exceeding 2,000 square kilometers and a 200% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 [1][3][6] - Plans to have 1,000 vehicles operational by the end of the year and has initiated RoboTaxi road tests in Seoul, South Korea [4][6] - **Tesla**: - Announced the official launch of Robotaxi on June 22, 2025, focusing on the feasibility of pure vision technology and significant cost reduction potential [2][8] Market Dynamics - Robotaxi is expected to create new demand in the transportation market, similar to how ride-hailing services expanded the market through differentiated services [2][3] - The current market concerns about Robotaxi affecting traditional taxi and ride-hailing services are countered by the expectation that it will expand the overall market [2][3] Regulatory Environment - Both China and the U.S. are leading in autonomous driving regulations, with multiple cities allowing paid autonomous driving operations [5][7] - Recent regulations in China, such as the promotion of intelligent connected vehicles and the release of technical guidelines, support the deployment of L3 and above autonomous driving [7] Future Trends - The automotive sector is expected to continue focusing on smart technology, with the launch of Tesla's Robotaxi likely to further stimulate the smart vehicle theme [9] - The penetration rate of intelligent driving in domestic cities is anticipated to rise rapidly, driven by the focus on vehicles priced between 100,000 to 200,000 yuan [9] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Xiaopeng Motors, Tesla, Li Auto, and Xiaoma Zhixing, with a focus on parts supplier, Aptiv [10]

Investment Rating - The report presents a positive outlook on the AI Capex sector in China, with specific stock recommendations for various segments including copper, power equipment, humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and smart manufacturing [9][10][47]. Core Insights - China's AI Capex is expected to reach RMB600-700 billion by 2025, driven by government policies and increased spending from major telecom and internet firms [1][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of non-IT and energy-related AI Capex, focusing on the value chain that includes power, metals, and applications [1][29]. - Significant growth is anticipated in various applications of AI, including humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and smart manufacturing, with respective CAGRs of 171%, 52%, and 2.4% from 2024 to 2030 [40][44][42]. Summary by Sections AI Capex Overview - China's AI Capex is projected to rise significantly, reaching RMB600-700 billion by 2025, supported by government initiatives and major industry players [1][29]. - The global data center investment is expected to grow to US$800 billion by 2030, with China playing a crucial role [1][29]. Power and Power Equipment - China's data centers are forecasted to consume 277 TWh of electricity by 2030, representing 2.2% of total power demand [30]. - The power equipment market related to AI is expected to grow at an 18% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, driven by strong grid investments and rising demand from renewable energy [31][32]. Copper and Other Metals - Data centers are projected to account for 4-6% of China's copper demand by 2030, with total copper demand from data centers estimated at 675-1,048 kt [33]. - The report highlights the tight global copper supply and the expected increase in aluminum demand due to AI and energy transitions [34]. Cooling and Power Supply - The liquid cooling market for data centers is expected to grow at a 57% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, driven by its efficiency compared to air cooling [36][37]. - Diesel engine demand for data centers is projected to increase by 50% YoY in 2025, with a market size of RMB11 billion [39]. Humanoid Robots - Humanoid robot shipments are expected to grow at a CAGR of 171% from 2024 to 2030, with global sales projected to reach 1 million units by 2030 [40]. - The BOM cost of humanoid robots is anticipated to decline significantly, making them more accessible [40]. Smart Manufacturing - The smart manufacturing sector is expected to recover with a 2.4% YoY growth in 2025, driven by automation and AI integration [42]. - The report identifies Inovance as a key player in the industrial automation market [42]. Autonomous Driving and eVTOL - The global LiDAR market is projected to reach RMB80 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 52% from 2024 to 2030 [44]. - The eVTOL market is expected to grow from RMB1 billion in 2024 to RMB10 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 63% [45]. Smart Home - The smart home market in China is expected to grow at an 11% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, driven by advancements in IoT and AI technologies [46].

Group 1 - Waymo is deploying 1,500 Robotaxis in four U.S. cities, while Chinese tech companies are rapidly changing the global autonomous driving competition landscape with faster hardware cost reductions and policy support [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that by 2030, the number of Robotaxis on Chinese roads will exceed that of the U.S. by more than 14 times, highlighting China's significant advantages in cost control, technology deployment, and market scalability [1][2] - The focus of investors has shifted from technical feasibility to growth speed and market size, with China's Robotaxi market expected to grow significantly faster than that of the U.S. [1][2] Group 2 - The Chinese Robotaxi market is projected to grow from approximately $54 million in 2025 to $12 billion by 2030, and further to $47 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 96% [2] - In contrast, the U.S. Robotaxi market is expected to grow from about $30 million in 2025 to $7 billion by 2030, with a growth rate only one-sixth that of China [2] - By 2030, China is expected to have around 500,000 Robotaxis compared to only 35,000 in the U.S., with projections indicating a fleet size of 1.9 million in China by 2035 [2] Group 3 - China demonstrates a significant cost advantage in autonomous vehicle (AV) production, with current costs around $44,000, expected to drop to $35,000 by 2030 and further to $32,000 by 2035 [3] - Baidu's sixth-generation AV costs approximately $29,000 (excluding battery), a 60% reduction from the previous generation, while Pony.ai's seventh-generation vehicles are priced between $17,000 and $33,000 [3] - In comparison, U.S. AV costs are projected to decrease from $85,000 in 2025 to $50,000 by 2030, indicating a slower cost reduction compared to China [3] Group 4 - China is exhibiting a faster pace of commercial deployment for autonomous driving technology, with numerous AV companies scaling up operations [4] - The penetration rate of Robotaxis in China is expected to rise from 0.1% in 2025 to 25% by 2035, driven by cost reductions, scale effects, urbanization, policy support, and local technological advancements [4] - The rapid decline in AV costs in China is laying the groundwork for large-scale commercial deployment, benefiting the entire autonomous driving supply chain [4]

Sales Tracking - In May, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.93 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a month-on-month increase of 10%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 8.802 million units, up 9% year-on-year [1] - Wholesale sales for passenger cars in May totaled 2.329 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month-on-month increase of 6%. Year-to-date wholesale sales reached 10.797 million units, up 12% year-on-year [1] - In May, the cumulative number of new vehicle registrations was 1.7086 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 911,700 units, up 23.9% year-on-year [1] Market Performance - In May, the CS automotive sector rose by 1.88%, with the CS passenger vehicle index increasing by 1.12%. The CS automotive parts index rose by 2.52%, and the CS motorcycle and others index increased by 1.89% [1] - From the beginning of 2025 to date, the CS automotive sector has increased by 29.05%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 17.13 percentage points and the Shanghai Composite Index by 16.53 percentage points [1] Cost Tracking - As of the end of May 2025, prices for float glass, aluminum ingots, and zinc ingots decreased by 24%, 3.2%, and 7.6% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The inventory warning index for Chinese automotive dealers was 52.7%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year and 7.1 percentage points month-on-month, indicating improved market conditions [2] Industry Dynamics - WeRide announced a strategic partnership with Uber to expand Robotaxi services to 15 new international cities over the next five years, aiming to reshape global mobility [3] - BYD established its European headquarters in Hungary, marking a significant step in its localization strategy [4] - Geely announced a non-binding offer to privatize Zeekr, aiming to acquire all outstanding shares and delist from the NYSE [5] - Geely's Galaxy Star 8 was launched with a price range of 125,800 to 165,800 yuan, featuring advanced design and technology [6] - Nissan announced a significant restructuring plan, including a workforce reduction of approximately 20,000 employees, due to financial difficulties [7] - Audi is planning to sell its design and engineering subsidiary Italdesign as part of cost-cutting measures [8] - XPeng officially entered the Italian market, aiming to capitalize on the country's electric vehicle incentives [9] Government News - Shenzhen established a 7 billion yuan fund to accelerate the integration of AI and embodied robotics technology [25] - Shandong province announced eight new intelligent manufacturing standard application pilot projects to enhance manufacturing capabilities [26]

Group 1 - The new Leap C16 has started pre-sales with a price range of 169,800 to 189,800 yuan [1][4] - The 6-seat pure electric version is upgraded to an 81.9 kWh battery with a CLTC range of 630 km and features 800V high-voltage silicon carbide fast charging [2] - The 5-seat version includes 10 standard features such as luxury rear seats, front seat massage, and end-to-end assisted driving with laser radar, enhancing its competitive edge in the mid-large SUV market [3] Group 2 - Pony.ai announced the launch of its seventh-generation autonomous driving vehicles for public road testing in Guangzhou and Shenzhen [5] - The seventh-generation autonomous driving system features three core breakthroughs: 100% automotive-grade components, a 70% reduction in total cost of the autonomous driving kit compared to the previous generation, and rapid adaptability for multiple vehicle models based on platform design [6] - The transition from L2 to L3 in assisted driving and the commercialization of autonomous driving indicate a blurring line between the two, emphasizing the importance of cost and profit in replacing human drivers [6]

Core Insights - Pony.ai is advancing its Robotaxi mass production and commercialization with public road testing of its seventh-generation Robotaxis in China [1][2] - The new Robotaxis are based on Guangzhou Auto's Aion V model and feature Pony.ai's latest autonomous driving system, which was recently unveiled [2][3] - The Gen-7 system boasts significant improvements, including a 70% reduction in BOM costs and the exclusive use of automotive-grade components [3][4] Company Developments - Pony.ai has received regulatory approval for road tests, marking a shift from closed-track validation to real-world testing [2] - The company has accumulated over 45 million kilometers of autonomous test mileage and operates in over 2,000 square kilometers across major Chinese cities [5] - The goal for 2025 is to achieve mass production, with plans to deploy a fleet of over 1,000 vehicles by year-end [6] Technological Advancements - The Gen-7 system includes six types of sensors for comprehensive perception and a proprietary sensor cleaning solution for adverse conditions [4] - The technology is designed to exceed human safety standards and improve navigation in complex environments through reinforcement learning [4] Strategic Partnerships - Pony.ai has formed partnerships with major players in technology and mobility services, including Tencent Cloud, Alipay, and Uber, to support widespread adoption [7] - The company aims to create a sustainable business model for the mass production and deployment of autonomous vehicles [8]

Summary of Robotaxi Industry and Company Developments Industry Overview - The Robotaxi industry is experiencing rapid commercialization in the United States, with San Francisco approving all-weather commercial operations and states actively advancing autonomous driving legislation to support testing and commercialization [1][2] - China has defined 2025 as the year for Robotaxi commercialization, with ongoing improvements in high-level autonomous driving legislation and pilot projects for integrated vehicle-road-cloud systems [1][4] Key Companies and Developments Tesla - Tesla is leveraging its large fleet to accumulate data, optimize models, and innovate its Robotaxi business model, planning to deploy unmanned test vehicles in Austin, Texas, with an expected operational fleet of 110,000 vehicles by 2026 [1][5][6] - The company aims to enhance its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software monetization and has changed the landscape of partnerships in the autonomous driving sector, allowing better cost control [5][6] Baidu - Baidu's Robotaxi service, "Luobo Kuaipao," has launched in 11 cities, providing over 11.4 million global rides in Q1 2025, a 75% year-on-year increase, and has penetrated 36 cities in total [1][7] Pony.ai and WeRide - Pony.ai is entering its production year, planning to deploy around 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025 and has formed a strategic partnership with Uber for testing in the Middle East [1][8] - WeRide has also received a commercial license for all-weather operations in San Francisco, marking a significant milestone for Robotaxi commercialization in the U.S. [2] Other Companies - Companies like Zhongyuan Zhixin, Yunnei Power, and Baixingniu are advancing L3-level autonomous driving in the unmanned logistics sector, creating investment opportunities in the upstream supply chain [3][11] - GAC Group, BAIC Blue Valley, and Dongfeng Technology are also making strides in the Robotaxi space, with GAC's ride-hailing service and BAIC's collaboration with Pony.ai for vehicle production [9] Legislative and Technological Support - The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is set to release a regulatory framework for Robotaxi operations, addressing key issues such as operational qualifications and accident liability [2] - In China, the government is enhancing regulations and infrastructure to support high-level autonomous driving, with significant investments in technology development and cost reduction for L2+ level driving assistance [4][6] Investment Opportunities - The commercialization of Robotaxi is expected to create investment opportunities in upstream industries, particularly in areas like line control braking, line control steering, and domain controllers [3][12][13][14] - Companies such as Boteli, Nissin, Desay SV, and Jingwei Hengrun are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for advanced driving technologies [12][14] Conclusion - The Robotaxi industry is on the brink of significant growth, driven by technological advancements, regulatory support, and strategic partnerships among key players. The developments in both the U.S. and China indicate a robust future for autonomous driving services and related investments [1][17]

Pony AI is developing autonomous vehicle technology to be deployed on robotaxis, trucks, and everyday owned vehicles. It is focused on large cities in China, such as Shenzhen and Beijing. Shares soared last month because of partnership announcements with Uber and Tencent Holdings. Uber is now a strategic partner with Pony AI and hopes to deploy the technology for ridesharing in a Middle East market shortly. The Tencent partnership is with Tencent Cloud. In the early stages of its business model, Pony AI gen ...