Group 1 - Aluminerie Alouette, an aluminum manufacturer partially owned by Rio Tinto, plans to invest up to 1.5 billion CAD (1.1 billion USD) for modernization of its plant in Northern Quebec [1] - The company has reached a new electricity supply agreement with Hydro-Quebec, the provincial government’s electricity supplier [1] - This investment is seen as positive news for the aluminum industry, which is facing pressure from U.S. tariffs on aluminum imports [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported aluminum, which is expected to impact U.S. aluminum-consuming companies, such as Constellation Brands Inc., which anticipates a loss of approximately 20 million USD in the remaining fiscal year due to these tariffs [1] - Canada is the largest aluminum supplier to the U.S., and the U.S. lacks sufficient domestic aluminum smelting capacity to meet its demand [1] - Quebec produces 70% of North America's aluminum, highlighting its importance in meeting U.S. demand [1]

Aluminerie Alouette, an aluminum maker that’s partially owned by Rio Tinto, is planning to commit as much as C$1.5 billion to modernizing its facilities in northern Quebec https://t.co/DnQikFUeyz ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the production and transportation of mainstream iron ore mines were disrupted, with the growth rate of supply falling short of expectations. The combined production/transportation volume of the four major mines in Q1 was 245 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. Although most of the eight non-mainstream mines tracked achieved a year-on-year output increase of 6.8%, their performance may not be representative of the overall overseas non-mainstream mines. - The trend of "increasing mainstream supply and decreasing non-mainstream supply" may become the main theme of overseas iron ore supply from Q2 to Q4. The dominance of Australian and Brazilian mainstream mines in global seaborne iron ore may be further strengthened this year. - The reduction in non-mainstream mine supply is not enough to fully offset the increase in the four major mines. Therefore, the report holds a relatively optimistic view on the overall annual supply [1][2][58]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview of the Operation of Major Mines in Q1 2025 - **Mainstream Four Major Mines**: The combined production/transportation volume in Q1 was 245.307 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.6%. Vale and Rio Tinto maintained their annual production and transportation volume guidance ranges. BHP and Fortescue had completed over 75% of the lower limit of their full fiscal - year guidance ranges by Q1 and are expected to meet their annual targets [7][8]. - **Non - Mainstream Mines**: Most of the eight non - mainstream mines tracked showed a seasonal quarter - on - quarter decline in production in Q1 but achieved an overall year - on - year output increase of 6.8%. Mineral Resources and Champion Iron had significant year - on - year increases [9]. 2. Key Points Interpretation of the Quarterly Reports of the Four Major Mines 2.1 Vale (Vale) - Weather Factors Affected, Q1 Production and Sales Diverged - **Overall Situation**: In Q1, iron ore production was 67.664 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. Sales were 66.141 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. The company is confident in achieving its annual production targets of 325 - 335 million tons in 2025 and 340 - 360 million tons in 2026. The C1 cash cost in Q1 was 21.0 US dollars/wet ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6% [11][13]. - **Operation Details**: The northern system was affected by weather and license restrictions, but the S11D mine's output reached a new high. The southeastern system's output decreased due to factory maintenance. The southern system focused on high - quality ore production, resulting in a decline in output. Ball pellet production also decreased due to weather [15][17][20]. 2.2 Rio Tinto (Rio Tinto) - Extreme Weather Affected, Production and Transportation Increases Were Hindered - **Overall Situation**: In Q1, affected by multiple hurricanes, the shipment was about 13 million tons behind schedule, and about 6.5 million tons are expected to be made up later. The output of the Pilbara mining area was 69.771 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%, and the shipment was 70.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The company may achieve the lower limit of its annual shipment guidance range [23]. - **Operation Details**: The Western Range project achieved its first production in Q1, and the Brockman Syncline 1 project's investment was approved. The Simandou project in Guinea is progressing as planned and is expected to have its first shipment in November [26][27]. 2.3 BHP (BHP) - Supply Chain Optimization Resisted Some Weather Risks, and Production Stabilized - **Overall Situation**: In Q1, the equity output was 61.772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and the sales volume was 60.679 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The company maintained its production guidance ranges for the 2025 fiscal year [33]. - **Operation Details**: The PDP - 1 project continued to improve efficiency. The second concentrator of the Samarco mine in Brazil was put into operation ahead of schedule, and the capacity ramp - up is expected to be completed by mid - year [35]. 2.4 Fortescue (Fortescue) - Low - Base Background, Q1 Output Increased Year - on - Year - **Overall Situation**: In Q1, the total iron ore shipment was 46.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The C1 cost of Pilbara hematite was 17.53 US dollars/wet ton, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 7% [36]. - **Operation Details**: The Iron Bridge project was affected by a tropical cyclone. The company expects the total shipment of the Iron Bridge project to reach 10 - 12 million tons in FY26, 16 - 20 million tons/year in the first half of 2027, and full production of 22 million tons/year in FY28. The company completed the acquisition of Red Hawk in March [38][39]. 3. Review of the Quarterly Operation of Major Non - Mainstream Iron Ore Producers 3.1 Anglo American - Kumba's Logistics Continued to Improve, Minas - Rio's Output Reached a New High - **Kumba Iron Ore**: In Q1, the output was 8.99 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%, and the shipment was 8.939 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The iron grade remained stable at 64.2%. - **Minas - Rio Mine**: The output in Q1 was 6.455 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%, and the shipment was 5.625 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.9%. The iron grade averaged 67%. The company's annual production guidance range is 57 - 61 million tons, and it will continue to invest in logistics and infrastructure [41][43][44]. 3.2 ArcelorMittal - The Second - Phase Expansion of AML Is Nearly Completed, and Full Production Rate Will Be Reached by the End of the Year - In Q1, the total output was 11.8 million tons, and the output of the Liberian mines AML and AMMC for external sales was 8.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.2%. The company is expanding its mines in Liberia and acquiring new mineral resources in India. The second - phase expansion of the Liberian iron mine aims to increase the annual capacity from 15 million tons to 20 million tons and is expected to reach full production by the end of the year [45][47]. 3.3 India NMDC - Current Production Is Stable, and Long - Term Ambitious Goals Remain Unchanged - In Q1, the iron ore output was 13.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%, and the sales volume was 12.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. The company aims to exceed 50 million tons in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and reach 100 million tons by 2030 [48][49]. 3.4 Brazil CSN - The Construction of the P15 Mining Area Continues to Advance - In Q1, the output was 10.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%, and the sales volume was 9.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The construction of the P15 mining area started earthwork excavation in Q1 and is expected to enter the equipment installation and commissioning stage in the second half of the year. The annual output target range remains at 42 - 43.5 million tons [50][52]. 3.5 Mineral Resources (MinRes) - The Shipment Growth Rate of Onslow Continued to Increase - In Q1, the output of Onslow Iron decreased by 22.9% quarter - on - quarter due to logistics and weather. The company adjusted its annual output target to 8.5 - 8.7 million wet tons and expects Onslow to reach full production in the third quarter of this year [53]. 3.6 Champion Iron - Bloom Lake's Sales Reached a Record High, and Shipments in Canada Increased Again - In Q1, the output of the Bloom Lake mining area was 3.167 million wet tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. The sales volume was 3.495 million dry tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.7%. The inventory decreased from 2.94 million wet tons to 2.6 million wet tons [55][56][57]. 4. Summary and Future Outlook - In Q1, the supply of mainstream mines was disrupted by weather, but the shipment improved in Q2. The report is confident in the annual supply increase of mainstream mines. - In Q1, the shipment of non - mainstream mines decreased significantly compared to last year. It is expected that the production and shipment volume of non - mainstream mines will be difficult to reach last year's level in the remaining time of this year. The trend of "increasing mainstream supply and decreasing non - mainstream supply" may dominate the overseas iron ore supply from Q2 to Q4, and the overall annual supply is expected to be relatively loose [58][59][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of iron ore in China decreased while demand increased in the first half of 2025. The consumption of iron ore reached a record high, supporting the high valuation of iron ore among the black commodities. [2][93] - In the second half of the year, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase slightly, with a total increment of about 13 million tons from the Big Four mines and non - Australia and Brazil regions. The supply pressure is not significant. [2][93] - The demand for construction steel in China is expected to continue to decline, while the demand for manufacturing steel is expected to remain resilient. Overseas demand, especially from India, is expected to contribute more than 10 million tons of incremental demand throughout the year. [2][93] - The trading logic in the second half of the year mainly involves the Fed's interest - rate cuts and global tariff policies. The fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand will remain neutral, and the Platts iron ore price will fluctuate widely between $90 - $105. [3][94] - The trading strategy suggests speculatively buying at the bottom of the iron ore price and for spot enterprises to hedge at high prices. [5][95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1.1 Production and Sales of the Big Four Mines in H1 2025 - The total production of the Big Four mines in the first half of the year was estimated at 545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% (2 million tons), and the total shipment was 544 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% (0.6 million tons). The overall production and sales were lower than market expectations. [12] - In the second half of the year, the production may accelerate, with the increment mainly from Rio Tinto and BHP, but the overall increment may be only about 7 million tons. [12] 3.1.2 Domestic Iron Ore Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 513 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% (26 million tons). Imports from Australia, Brazil, and non - Australia and Brazil all declined. [13] 3.1.3 Non - Australia and Brazil Global Shipments - The current non - Australia and Brazil global shipments depend on the remaining gap in global total demand after subtracting the shipments of the Big Four mines. The marginal cost of non - mainstream mine shipments may be above $90. [29][30] - Australia and Brazil's non - mainstream mines are unlikely to see large increments. Non - Australia and Brazil global shipments are likely to decline. [33][37] 3.1.4 Domestic Iron Concentrate Production and Scrap Steel Consumption - From January to May 2025, domestic iron concentrate production decreased by 5.4% year - on - year (6 million tons). In 2025, it is expected to continue to contribute to the reduction. [49] - In 2025, domestic scrap steel consumption is unlikely to see a significant increase due to the continuous decline in real estate investment. [49] 3.1.5 Terminal Steel Demand - The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the infrastructure may contribute a small reduction. The manufacturing investment remains at a relatively high level, and the demand for manufacturing steel is expected to maintain its resilience. [56][61] - Overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level. India's steel demand is expected to contribute more than 10 million tons of incremental demand throughout the year. [73][74] 3.1.6 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - The total inventory of imported iron ore ports is relatively high, but the low total iron element inventory and the resilience of overseas demand support the iron ore price. The port iron ore inventory is expected to remain balanced in the third quarter. [80][83] 3.2 Iron Ore Market Outlook - The supply of iron ore in China decreased while demand increased in the first half of 2025. In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is expected to maintain a certain level. [93] - The trading logic in the second half of the year mainly involves the Fed's interest - rate cuts and global tariff policies. The fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand will remain neutral, and the Platts iron ore price will fluctuate between $90 - $105. [94] - The trading strategy suggests speculatively buying at the bottom of the iron ore price and for spot enterprises to hedge at high prices. [95]

Core Insights - Rio Tinto Group (RIO) plans to invest $1.6 billion in the Hope Downs 2 iron ore project in Western Australia's Pilbara region, with RIO's share being $800 million, highlighting its commitment to Australian iron ore and the sustainability of Pilbara's production [1][7] Project Details - The Hope Downs 2 project will develop two iron ore pits, expected to produce 31 million tons per year, significantly enhancing the joint venture's long-term production output [2][7] - The project has received all necessary state and federal government approvals, marking a significant milestone for RIO as it invests in next-generation iron ore mines in Pilbara [2] - Infrastructure development will include railway crossings, haul roads, and realigning 6km of the Great Northern Highway, with ore transported to Hope Downs 1 for processing, and production anticipated to start in 2027 [3] Employment Impact - The project is expected to create over 950 jobs during construction and support around 1,000 full-time roles once operational [4][7] Broader Investment Strategy - RIO plans to invest more than $13 billion in new mines, plants, and equipment from 2025 to 2027, including a $1.2 billion investment to modernize its Isle-Maligne hydroelectric power plant in Quebec, Canada [5] Stock Performance - Over the past year, RIO's shares have declined by 8.7%, contrasting with a 0.2% decline in the industry [6]

Core Insights - Cymat Technologies Ltd. has entered into a Letter of Intent with Rio Tinto Alcan Inc. to acquire technology and know-how for manufacturing proprietary aluminum metal matrix composites (MMC) [1][2] - The acquisition is part of RTA's strategic reorganization as they exit the MMC business, which they have operated for over 40 years [2][4] - Cymat plans to establish MMC production capabilities at its Mississauga plant, leveraging existing resources and workforce [3][5] Financial Overview - Historical sales volumes from RTA suggest that Cymat could achieve incremental annual revenue between $7.5 million and $10 million, with margins comparable to or better than its AlusionTM product [4] - Estimated capital costs for equipment are projected to be between $2 million and $2.5 million, with technology transfer expenses expected to be in the low to mid six-figure range [4] - Cymat intends to finance this initiative through existing outstanding warrant proceeds and equipment financing sources [4] Strategic Benefits - The new business line will provide Cymat with a substantial, uncorrelated, and predictable revenue stream, enhancing profitability [5] - It will also reduce the cost of Cymat's primary input material significantly, making the company more price-competitive in the automotive sector [5][6] - The initiative is expected to accelerate Cymat's path to substantial profitability, particularly with anticipated sales growth in the nuclear and military sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Rio Tinto, plans to invest over $13 billion in new mines, plants, and equipment over the next three years [1] Investment Plans - Rio Tinto's investment strategy includes significant capital allocation towards the development of new mining operations and enhancement of existing facilities [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the copper industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the production growth of overseas large copper mining companies is low, and there are frequent disruptions. The lack of new large copper mining projects in the coming years will continue to constrain copper supply [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Production in Major Producing Countries - Chile's copper production from January to April 2025 reached 1.752 million metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.57% (+60,300 tons). The growth is primarily driven by the Escondida project due to higher mining intensity and improved ore grades. Peru's copper production during the same period was 892,000 metric tons, up 5.59% (+47,200 tons), with significant contributions from the Las Bambas and Toromocho mines [4][18]. 2. Overseas Copper Mining Companies' Production - The total copper production of 15 major copper mining companies in Q1 2025 was 3.012 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1% (+3,000 tons). However, excluding three Chinese companies, the production of 12 overseas companies fell by 3.79% (-96,100 tons) to 2.436 million tons. Notably, Freeport and Glencore experienced significant declines of 20% and 29.95%, respectively [5][9]. 3. Growth in Chinese Copper Mining Companies - Three Chinese companies reported substantial production increases in Q1 2025: Minmetals Resources (+76.1%), Zijin Mining (+9.5%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (+15.7%). The growth for Minmetals was largely attributed to the Las Bambas mine in Peru, which produced 95,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70.9% (+39,700 tons) [7]. 4. Future Project Developments - The report notes a scarcity of new or expanded copper mining projects. The Salvador project by Codelco is currently ramping up production, while First Quantum's Kansanshi expansion is expected to contribute additional capacity starting in H2 2025. Other long-term projects include Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi and Antofagasta's Centinela Phase II, with expected production increases in the coming years [8]. 5. Production Summary of Major Companies - Codelco's Q1 2025 production was 324,000 tons, a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year. BHP's total production was 513,200 tons, up 10.18%, primarily due to the Escondida mine. Freeport's production fell to 393,720 tons, down 20% year-on-year, while Glencore's production dropped to 167,900 tons, a decrease of 29.95% [47][54][60][69].

Core Insights - Rio Tinto Group's joint venture NeoSmelt has received support from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) for its planned pilot plant in Western Australia [1][8]. Group 1: Joint Venture Details - NeoSmelt was established in February 2024 by Rio Tinto, BHP Group, and BlueScope to develop Australia's largest ironmaking electric smelting furnace (ESF) pilot plant [2][3]. - The collaboration aims to decarbonize the steelmaking process, which contributes approximately 8% of global carbon emissions [2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Investment - NeoSmelt has secured A$19.8 million (approximately $12.9 million) for a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) study focused on lower-carbon production using Pilbara iron ore [4][8]. - The Western Australian Government has committed A$75 million (around $48.9 million) to support the project [4]. Group 3: Pilot Plant Operations - The NeoSmelt pilot plant is designed to produce 30,000-40,000 tons of molten iron annually, initially using natural gas to reduce iron ore to direct reduced iron (DRI) [6]. - The project aims to transition to lower-carbon hydrogen for the reduction process once operational, with a target to reduce CO2 emissions by up to 80% compared to traditional blast furnaces [5][6]. Group 4: Timeline and Future Plans - The project is currently in the feasibility phase, with a final investment decision expected in 2026 and operations anticipated to commence in 2028 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategies, and commodity sectors. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics. The overall sentiment varies across different markets, with some expected to be bullish, some bearish, and others in a state of oscillation. For example, the bond market is expected to go bullish, while the iron ore market is expected to remain weak [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May NFIB small business confidence index was 98.8, higher than expected. Gold prices oscillated and closed down. If the tariff issue eases, gold may continue to fall; if it worsens, the upside is limited. Short - term gold is expected to be weak with a risk of correction [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. The market believes the probability of a successful Sino - US trade negotiation is low. The bond market is expected to go bullish in July. There are two possible paths for the bullish trend, and the first path is more likely. It is recommended to take a bullish approach [16][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The leaders of China and South Korea had a phone call, emphasizing strengthening cooperation. The A - share market tumbled on June 10th, and the market's expectation for the Sino - US talks has deteriorated. Due to high valuation levels, the market will be more volatile. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan and the US are arranging a meeting between their leaders. Trump defined the Los Angeles riots as a "foreign invasion", which may intensify the situation in the short - term. The World Bank lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. The US dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24][26][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and Mexico are close to an agreement on steel tariffs. The Sino - US trade negotiation is reported to be going well. TSMC's May revenue increased year - on - year. The market is optimistic about the negotiation results, but there is still a risk of disappointment. It is not recommended to chase the high [29][30][32]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Abiove maintained Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts but lowered the price forecast. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US talks. Domestic demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the Sino - US talks and the USDA monthly report, and expect the futures price to oscillate [33][34][35]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in the northern ports was stable on June 10th. The coal price is temporarily stable due to downstream replenishment and upstream supply control, but it may decline again in summer. The growth rate of thermal power consumption has not increased significantly in June, and the risk of new energy substitution should be watched [36]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Zhengzhou will suspend the subsidy application for consumer goods trade - in of home appliances. The iron ore price is expected to remain weak due to weak sentiment in the industrial products market and seasonal pressure, but the decline may be gentle [37][39][41]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian officials called for an increase in the minimum sugar price. India is expected to have sugar production surpluses for at least two consecutive years. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. The international sugar market supply is increasing, and the domestic market may be affected by imports. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar futures will oscillate weakly [42][43][44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Heavy rain in East China may suppress the demand for building materials. The Sino - US trade negotiation is unclear, and the steel price is oscillating. The demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies in the spot market [45][46][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Aonong Biological's hog sales in May increased year - on - year, while New Hope's executives plan to reduce their shareholdings. The hog market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the short - term futures price may be weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and look for short - selling opportunities on significant rallies [48][49][50]. 2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weak. Although the futures price rebounded, the spot price is still weak. The supply is shrinking, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is recommended to treat the current situation as a rebound and wait and watch [51]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi Green Energy's 3GW BC photovoltaic module project was announced. There are some market rumors about polysilicon production, but the actual situation is different. The supply in June is expected to increase, and the market is currently in a stalemate. It is recommended to take a short - term short and long - term long approach [52][53][54]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry refuted the rumor of equity transfer. Some silicon plants in Sichuan are resuming production, while those in Yunnan are still waiting. The demand is weak, and the price is close to the cash cost line. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply changes [55][56]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Zambia invites automobile manufacturers to set up factories in copper - mining areas. Rio Tinto reaffirmed its copper production guidance for 2025. The LME copper inventory is changing. The short - term macro - factors have a neutral impact on copper prices, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions. It is recommended to wait and watch [57][59][60]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount on June 9th. The supply of lead has decreased marginally, while the demand is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate widely in June, and it is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and look for long - term low - buying opportunities [62][63]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a discount on June 9th. The zinc market is expected to show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in June. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the accumulation of put options. The mid - term strategy is to do an internal - external positive arbitrage [64][65]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL announced the mass production of 587Ah cells. Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China in May were lower than expected. The market may be in a tight balance or slight de - stocking in June. It is recommended to short on rallies [66][67]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA lowered the forecast for US crude oil production in 2026. The US API crude oil inventory decreased slightly. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price closed at 67.67 yuan/ton on June 10th, slightly down. The CEA price is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the market is expected to be oversupplied in 2025. It is recommended to expect a weak oscillation [71][72]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis is strong, and the market negotiation is okay. The demand is in a seasonal off - season, while the supply is increasing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [73][74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Sinopec raised the pure benzene listing price. The styrene price rebounded, mainly driven by cost and capital. The pure benzene supply may decrease marginally in July. It is recommended to consider the potential of pure benzene as a chemical allocation [75][76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable on June 10th. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract of caustic soda may be limited in its downward space due to the large discount [78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market increased slightly. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export and domestic prices are mostly stable. The industry has high supply pressure, but the processing fee is close to the historical low. Some large factories plan to reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the bottle chip processing fee on dips [84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market in China was slightly stronger. The futures price oscillated, and the downstream demand was weak. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's soda ash production is normal. The soda ash market is weak and stable, with high supply and low demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [86][87][88]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei was stable on June 10th. The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot market was weak. With the coming of summer and the rainy season, the demand will decline seasonally, and the price may continue to fall. The short - term futures price may be affected by market sentiment [89].