Group 1: Travel Trends and Destinations - Chinese travellers are increasingly exploring lesser-known destinations, with significant booking growth in cities like Yokohama, Takayama, and Ito in Japan, and Granada and Seville in Europe [5][3] - The top outbound destinations for Chinese travellers include Japan, Thailand, South Korea, and several others, with a notable drop in average air ticket prices [2][3] - Long-haul travel is on the rise, with destinations such as Australia, the United States, and several European countries seeing longer stays, often exceeding 10 to 14 days [3][4] Group 2: Accommodation Preferences - There is a growing preference for high-quality, mid-tier accommodations among travellers, with 5-star hotel bookings in Europe experiencing nearly three times the year-on-year growth compared to Asia-Pacific [2][3] - Hotel bookings are peaking around the Golden Week holiday, with an average length of stay exceeding seven days [1][4] Group 3: Visa Applications and Travel Planning - Travellers are planning further in advance, submitting visa applications an average of 68 days before their trips, which is 29 days earlier than the previous year [4] - The top countries for visa applications during the National Day holiday include Japan, South Korea, and the United States [4] Group 4: Live Entertainment Impact - Live entertainment is significantly influencing travel trends, with a high percentage of millennials attending concerts and events during the holiday period [6][7] - Hotels near concert venues in Singapore have seen a 214% increase in unique views, indicating a strong demand for proximity to entertainment events [7] Group 5: Inbound Tourism Dynamics - There is a notable increase in inbound tourism, with many top outbound destinations also serving as major inbound markets for China [8] - Thailand and Singapore rank high in inbound tourism, benefiting from mutual visa exemptions with China [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $61.52, indicating a potential upside of 30.0% from the current stock price of $47.33 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its domestic business while continuing to experience high growth in outbound and overseas markets. In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue and adjusted net profit of RMB 127.9 billion and RMB 49.9 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.5% and 45.2% [1]. - The company’s domestic travel segment showed steady performance, with significant growth in accommodation bookings and travel management services. The international OTA platform also saw a revenue increase of approximately 70% year-on-year in Q2 2024 [1][2]. - The company’s profitability improved significantly, with an adjusted net profit margin of 39.0%, up 8.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost optimization and increased income from joint ventures [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported revenues of RMB 247.1 billion and adjusted net profits of RMB 90.4 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 20.7% and 64.4%, respectively [1]. - The company’s Q2 2024 revenue and adjusted net profit were RMB 127.9 billion and RMB 49.9 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 13.5% and 45.2% [1]. Business Segments - In H1 2024, revenue from accommodation bookings, transportation tickets, vacation packages, business travel management, and other services were RMB 96.3 billion, RMB 98.7 billion, RMB 19.1 billion, RMB 11.4 billion, and RMB 21.5 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.0%, 10.0%, 72.2%, 11.2%, and 34.5% [1]. - The company’s international OTA platform continued to expand rapidly, with Q2 2024 revenue growth of approximately 70% year-on-year [1][2]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for Q2 2024 was 81.8%, with R&D, sales, and management expense ratios of 23.4%, 22.2%, and 8.4%, respectively [1]. - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 39.0%, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 492 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% from the current price of 370.2 HKD [2]. Core Views - The company reported revenue of 12.77 billion HKD for Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, with adjusted operating profit of 4.23 billion HKD, up 21.7% year-on-year. Net profit surged to 3.89 billion HKD, reflecting a 500% increase, while non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.98 billion HKD, up 45.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company has seen robust growth in outbound travel, with overseas bookings recovering to 120% and 110% of 2019 levels during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, respectively [2]. - The report highlights a significant optimization in R&D expenses, with R&D, marketing, and management expense ratios at 23.4%, 22.2%, and 8.4%, respectively [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a growth rate faster than the industry, driven by increased online penetration and customer acquisition advantages [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.77 billion HKD, with the accommodation segment growing by 19.9% to 5.14 billion HKD, transportation revenue at 4.87 billion HKD, up 1.2%, and vacation services at 1.03 billion HKD, up 42.0% [2]. - The company’s gross margin stood at 81.9%, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 33.1%, reflecting improvements in operational efficiency [2]. - The financial forecast for 2024-2026 estimates revenues of 52.0 billion HKD, 59.5 billion HKD, and 67.4 billion HKD, respectively, with non-GAAP net profits projected at 17.0 billion HKD, 19.5 billion HKD, and 22.2 billion HKD [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with significant growth in overseas business [5] - The recovery of outbound travel has reached pre-pandemic levels, with strong growth anticipated in the second half of the year [5] - The international platform Trip.com showed impressive growth, contributing positively to the overall revenue [5] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 20,039 million, with projections of 44,510 million for 2023, 52,814 million for 2024, and 60,610 million for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 122.12% in 2023 and 18.66% in 2024 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,403 million in 2022, expected to rise to 9,918 million in 2023, 14,628 million in 2024, and 16,661 million in 2025, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 606.91% in 2023 and 47.49% in 2024 [2] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 was 44 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 35%, up by 2 percentage points year-on-year [5] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is HKD 370.20, with a one-year low of HKD 251.40 and a high of HKD 452.20 [4] - The market capitalization is approximately 253,041.98 million HKD [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the forecast for adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 to 16,853 million, 18,933 million, and 20,905 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 12%, and 10% [5] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 14 for 2024, 12 for 2025, and 11 for 2026 [5]

出境游/国际业务高增,助推 Q2 业绩超预期 核心观点 ● ● +14%;归母净利 38亿元人民币/同比+507%;Non-GAAP 净利润 50 亿元人 民币/同比+46%。 2Q24 住宿预订增长好于交通,商旅、度假业务受益低基数持续增长。分 板块:1) 住宿预订服务实现营收 51 亿元/同比+20%,环比+14%,虽然国内 一不利影响;2)交通票务服务实现营收 49亿元/同比+1%/环比-3%,主要因 2Q24 机票价格波动。3) 旅游度假业务实现营收 10 亿元/同比+42%/环比 +16%,得益于旅游度假预订需求和节假日旅游需求增长。4)商旅管理业务实 现营收 6.3 亿元/同比+8%/环比+24%,主要受季节性影响。 ● 出境游/国际业务保持高增,入境游开始贡献增量。出境游方面,截至 2Q24, 公司出境游机酒预订已全面恢复至 2019 年同期水平,五一和端午预定量较 2019年分别+20%和+10%,且出境跟团游以成倍的速率增长。海外业务方面, 公司国际 OTA 平台营收同比+70%,占总营收的10.5%左右,其中,入境游板 块表现出色,1H24营收同比+150%,免签地区游客营收同比+190% ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 2024 年 8 月 27 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 336.00 港元 509.00 +51.5% 携程集团 (9961 HK) 内地酒店业务表现好于预期，并将在下半年看到边际改善 2024 年 2 季度业绩：收入 128 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 14%，与我 们/彭博市场预期基本一致，其中住宿+20%/交通+1%/旅游度假+42%/商旅 +8%。调整后净利润同比增 45%至 50 亿元，净利率 39%，对比去年同期 30%，超过我们/彭博市场预期 34%/39%，得益于规模效应、交叉销售优 化、高利润率业务占比提升以及联营公司利润超预期。市场恢复下营销活 动保持投入，调整后营销费用同比增 20%，占收比 22%，同比基本稳定， 与我们预期一致。 2 季度业绩要点：1）中文站点酒店预定同比增 20%，内地间夜量增约 15%，较行业增长高 10 个百分点，持续扩张市占，得益于用户心智及交叉 销售效率提升。内地 ADR 仍承压，但竞争缓和下补贴率下降缓释 ADR 压 力。2）出境机酒预订完全恢复至 2019 年水平，领先整体国际航班 70%+ 的恢复速度。机票价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to 500 HKD [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 revenue met expectations, with adjusted net profit and EBITDA exceeding market expectations by 39% and 9% respectively. The hotel booking volume on the Chinese site increased by 20% year-on-year, while international OTA platform revenue surged by 70% [1][2]. - The report highlights the company's strong competitive advantages and agile operations, leading to a high degree of profit certainty [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q2 net revenue reached 12.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%, aligning with market expectations. Adjusted net profit was 5 billion RMB, up 45% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 44% and 39% respectively [2][3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was 4.4 billion RMB, exceeding expectations by 10% and 9%, with a corresponding EBITDA margin of 35%, reflecting an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Business Segments - Domestic hotel and flight bookings showed normalized growth, with hotel bookings on the Chinese site increasing by 20% year-on-year. The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels decreased due to increased supply [2][3]. - The international OTA business is progressing steadily, with Trip.com’s total revenue in Q2 increasing by approximately 70%, contributing about 10.5% to total revenue [2][3]. Future Outlook - Management guidance for July and August indicates that outbound flight and hotel bookings are expected to exceed 2019 levels by 10-20%, with domestic hotel bookings also showing double-digit year-on-year growth [3][19]. - The report maintains the 2024 revenue forecast at 52.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17%, while adjusting the full-year adjusted net profit forecast up by 11% to 16.2 billion RMB [3][19].

关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 400 余家大机构在二季度买了拼多多 400 余家大机构在二季度买了拼多多 携程称机酒行业价格下降，预计四季度缓解 茶百道毛利减少，因为给经销商减负 苹果 CFO 明年卸任，十年回报股东超 8500 亿美元 安踏半年净利润增长超 60%，商品周转加快 Anthropic 公开了 Claude 的系统提示词 拼多多是机构投资者二季度买入最多的中概股。据 13F 文件，当季共有 147 家资产管理规模 1 亿美元以 上的投资机构建仓拼多多，环比增加逾五成；增持的多了 20%、达到 269 家。清仓和减持的分别少了 30% 和 16%。 以拼多多二季度股票成交均价计算，大机构们合计净买入价值约 66 亿美元的拼多多股票。建仓的不乏 挪威央行、文艺复兴基金这样的著名机构。 一些早已重仓拼多多的中资机构下了更多注。景林增持约 157 万股、价值超 2 亿美元（按二季度交易均 价，下同），重新把拼多多买回最大持仓；泰仁资本买了近 2.5 亿美元，高毅资产增持约 0.6 亿美元。 徐新的今日资本没买也没卖，拼多多持仓占比接近九成。高瓴虽然大幅减持了约 4 亿美元拼多多 ...

Klaus Vedfelt Recap and Q2 Earnings We last covered Trip.com (NASDAQ:TCOM) (OTCPK:TRPCF) back in Nov 2023. Coverage history (Seeking Alpha) We noted that the management was cautious about the company's potential for short-term margin expansion because it has increased marketing spending to compete with other nearby businesses like Meituan (OTCPK:MPNGF) and Douyin, the parent company of TikTok. With a strategic alliance with Booking (BKNG) and an edge in the supply chain, management was enthusiastic ab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Trip.com Group-S (9961 HK) [3][4] Core Views - Trip com s Q2 2024 performance exceeded expectations driven by outbound and overseas business growth [2] - Non GAAP net profit reached RMB 5 billion up 45 YoY with a Non GAAP profit margin of 39 [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 4 4 billion with a margin of 35 [2] - The company s outbound hotel and flight bookings have fully recovered to 100 of 2019 levels surpassing the industry average recovery rate of 70 [2] - Trip com s international OTA platform revenue grew 70 YoY maintaining a high growth rate [2] Business Performance - Q2 2024 net revenue was RMB 12 8 billion up 14 YoY [2] - Accommodation revenue grew 20 YoY to RMB 5 1 billion while transportation revenue increased only 1 YoY to RMB 4 9 billion [2] - Vacation package revenue surged 42 YoY to RMB 1 billion and corporate travel revenue rose 8 YoY to RMB 633 million [2] - Gross margin stood at 81 9 slightly down 0 26 pct YoY [2] - R&D and management expenses decreased 1 8 and increased 6 0 respectively with sales expenses rising 1 2 pct YoY [2] Growth Drivers - Outbound travel recovery and pure overseas markets are key growth drivers [2] - Domestic hotel ADR and average airfare prices declined but Chinese site hotel bookings grew 20 YoY [2] - Trip com s international business continues to expand with Trip com platform revenue growing 70 YoY [2] Financial Forecasts - 2024 2026 Non GAAP net profit is projected to be RMB 16 505 billion RMB 19 194 billion and RMB 21 858 billion respectively [3] - Non GAAP EPS for 2024 2026 is estimated at RMB 24 15 RMB 28 08 and RMB 31 98 [3] - Adjusted PE ratios for 2024 2026 are 14x 12x and 10x based on the closing price on August 27 2024 [3] Valuation Metrics - 2024 2026 revenue growth rates are forecasted at 17 5 16 4 and 14 5 respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit growth rates for 2024 2026 are 26 16 and 14 [4] - P E ratios based on adjusted net profit are 14x 12x and 10x for 2024 2026 [4] - P B ratios are projected at 1 7x 1 5x and 1 3x for 2024 2026 [4]