7月29日午后，A股三大指数震荡攀升，值得关注的是，算力硬件方向持续爆发，尾盘时涨幅进一步扩 大。有分析人士指出，外围传出的一则消息，对算力板块的提振较大。当天有外媒报道称，因中国市场 需求比预想中强劲，英伟达上周不得不改变仅依赖现有库存的策略，向台积电紧急订购了30万片H20芯 片。(证券时报) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the A-share market, particularly in the computing power hardware sector, driven by robust demand from the Chinese market and significant orders from Nvidia to TSMC for H20 chips [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, A-share indices experienced a notable rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.86% and surpassing the 2400-point mark, supported by strong performances in the pharmaceutical, semiconductor, and steel sectors [1]. - The computing power hardware sector saw a significant surge, with the optical module (CPO) sector's overall increase exceeding 3%, and the Wind optical module index rising over 5% [3]. Group 2: Nvidia's Orders and Market Demand - Nvidia's recent decision to place an emergency order for 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC was influenced by unexpectedly strong demand from the Chinese market, prompting a shift from relying solely on existing inventory [4][7]. - Nvidia's current inventory of H20 chips is estimated at 600,000 to 700,000 units, and this new order will help replenish stock as the company anticipates selling approximately 1 million H20 chips in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Company Earnings Forecasts - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit of 3.6 billion to 4.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.64% to 86.57%, driven by strong capital expenditure growth and high-end optical module sales [10]. - New Yisheng forecasts a net profit of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the same period, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 327.68% to 385.47%, attributed to ongoing investments in AI-related computing power [11]. - Other companies like Huagong Technology and Guangxun Technology also project significant profit increases, with expected growth rates of 42.43% to 52.03% and 55% to 95%, respectively [12]. Group 4: Industry Growth Drivers - The optical module market is projected to experience substantial growth, with Goldman Sachs raising its sales forecasts for 800G optical transceiver modules to 19.9 million and 33.5 million units for 2025 and 2026, respectively, reflecting increases of 10% and 58% [8]. - The global Ethernet optical module market is expected to reach $10 billion in 2024, with a nearly 100% year-on-year increase, and maintain a growth rate of around 50% in 2025 [13]. - The demand for high-performance optical modules is primarily driven by AI data centers, with approximately 80% of market demand stemming from this sector [13].

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry has experienced a significant shift in sentiment over the past three months, moving from a state of fear to one of optimism, driven by increasing demand for AI spending [1] Group 2 - The focus of equity research includes key sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and cloud software, indicating a growth-oriented investment strategy [2] - The research also encompasses other sectors like MedTech, Defense Tech, and Renewable Energy, showcasing a diverse investment approach [2]

Duquesne Family Office's billionaire investor was a seller of tech stocks during the March-ended quarter... with one big exception. With regard to AI-data-mining specialist Palantir, its shares have climbed by an almost unfathomable 2,370% since the start of 2023. Most megacap stocks don't tack on $360 billion in market value in such a short time frame. Palantir's parabolic ascent gave Druckenmiller every reason to cash in his chips. But there's probably more behind this selling activity than just a desire ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition for TSMC's CoWoS capacity is intensifying as major tech companies, particularly NVIDIA, are vying for advanced packaging technology to support their AI strategies. [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - Global demand for CoWoS is projected to reach 1 million wafers by 2026, indicating a robust growth of 40% to 50% in the cloud AI semiconductor market. [1] - NVIDIA is expected to consume 595,000 wafers, capturing approximately 60% of the total global demand. [2][4] - The capital expenditure of cloud service providers (CSPs) is rising, with Google increasing its 2025 budget from $75 billion to $85 billion, further accelerating investments in 2026. [1][5] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - NVIDIA's total demand for CoWoS wafers is forecasted at 595,000, with 515,000 wafers sourced from TSMC, primarily for its next-generation Rubin architecture chips. [2][4] - AMD is projected to secure 105,000 wafers, representing about 11% of the market share, with 80,000 wafers produced by TSMC for its MI355 and MI400 series AI accelerators. [2][4] - Broadcom is anticipated to demand 150,000 wafers, accounting for 15% of the market, mainly for custom chips for major clients like Google and Meta. [2][4] Group 3: Financial Implications for TSMC - TSMC's CoWoS monthly capacity is expected to increase significantly from 32,000 wafers in 2024 to 93,000 wafers by the end of 2026, driven by strong customer demand. [7] - AI-related revenue is projected to constitute 25% of TSMC's total revenue by 2025, positioning the company as a key beneficiary in the ongoing AI wave. [7]

Core Insights - Nvidia has placed an order for 300,000 H20 chipsets with TSMC due to strong demand, although the export license from the U.S. Department of Commerce has not yet been approved [1] Group 1 - Nvidia's order of 300,000 H20 chipsets indicates robust market demand for its products [1] - The lack of approval for the export license from the U.S. Department of Commerce may impact Nvidia's ability to fulfill this order [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **AI Supply Chain** within the **semiconductor industry**, particularly highlighting the performance and projections for major companies involved in AI semiconductors, including **Google**, **Nvidia**, **Broadcom**, **TSMC**, and others [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Google's Capital Expenditure (Capex) Increase**: - Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure budget to **US$85 billion** from **US$75 billion**, indicating strong ongoing demand for AI infrastructure [2]. - The company processes over **980 trillion tokens monthly**, which has doubled from **480 trillion** in May, reflecting robust AI demand [2]. 2. **AI Semiconductor Demand**: - The demand for AI semiconductors remains strong, with a positive outlook for both **US Semiconductors** and **Greater China Semiconductors** [2]. - The **H20 chip** shipments are expected to resume, with a total of **1 million units** anticipated from previous inventory and new production [3]. 3. **TSMC's CoWoS Capacity Allocation**: - TSMC's 2026 CoWoS capacity is projected to grow by **40%-50%**, driven by increasing demand for cloud AI semiconductors [4]. - The forecast for CoWoS-S consumption at TSMC for **AMD** has been raised from **50k to 60k units** in 2025, indicating expected recurring orders for its MI308 in the Chinese market [3]. 4. **Nvidia's CoWoS Booking**: - Nvidia's CoWoS-L booking for 2026 is projected at **510k units**, a **31% year-over-year increase**, implying a total of **5.4 million chips** [8]. - The company is also expected to see **CoWoS-R booking** of around **60k units** for various CPU projects [11]. 5. **Broadcom's CoWoS Allocation**: - Broadcom has booked approximately **145k CoWoS wafers** at TSMC, primarily for projects with Google, Meta, and OpenAI [11]. 6. **Overall AI Capex Trends**: - The top four US hyperscalers are expected to generate **US$550 billion** in operating cash flow in 2025, supporting ongoing investments in AI-related data centers [37]. - The average AI capex/EBITDA ratio is projected to be around **50%** in 2025, indicating strong financial capacity for further investments [38]. Additional Important Insights - **Depreciation Trends**: Depreciation as a percentage of total expenses for data center customers has risen significantly, expected to reach **10-14%** in 2025 due to increased capex [38]. - **Cloud Capex Growth**: The cloud capex tracker indicates a **43% year-over-year growth** in 2025, up from a previous forecast of **39%** [45]. - **AI Semiconductor Revenue**: AI semiconductors are projected to account for a significant portion of TSMC's revenue, with estimates suggesting **25%** of total revenue in 2025 [67]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the AI semiconductor industry.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recognition of Dr. C.C. Wei and Dr. Mark Liu, leaders of TSMC, as the joint recipients of the 2025 Robert N. Noyce Award for their significant contributions to the semiconductor industry [2][4]. Group 1: Award Announcement - The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that Dr. C.C. Wei and Dr. Mark Liu will receive the Robert N. Noyce Award in 2025 [2]. - The award ceremony will take place on November 20, 2025, in San Jose, California [2]. Group 2: Contributions to the Industry - Dr. Wei and Dr. Liu are recognized for reshaping the modern semiconductor ecosystem and revolutionizing chip manufacturing technology [4]. - Under their leadership, TSMC has become the largest chip foundry globally and a cornerstone of the semiconductor supply chain [4]. - TSMC has developed numerous groundbreaking technologies that have transformed computing performance, energy efficiency, and the global supply chain [4]. Group 3: Leadership Background - Dr. C.C. Wei has held various leadership roles at TSMC since joining in 1998, including CEO and President [5]. - Dr. Mark Liu has also served in multiple executive positions at TSMC, contributing to its growth and innovation [6]. - Both leaders emphasize the collective effort of their teams and the importance of innovation in the semiconductor field [5][6].

Core Insights - The CMOS image sensor (CIS) market is expected to experience strong growth in 2024, driven by the rebound in smartphone demand and needs in security, defense, aerospace, and consumer electronics. Revenue is projected to grow by 6.4% in 2024, following a 2.3% increase in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2024 to 2030 [1][4]. Market Trends - The market volume is anticipated to rise from 7 billion units to 9 billion units by 2030, with mobile, security, and automotive applications being the primary growth drivers [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) remains stable above $3, supported by high-end features in mobile and automotive sectors [1]. - Wafer production is expected to grow by 8.9% in 2024, with a steady increase projected until 2030 [1]. Competitive Landscape - Chinese company Smartsens leads the market with a significant year-on-year growth of 105.7%, expanding into mobile and automotive sectors. Sony's market share has also increased by nearly 50%, while SK Hynix has reduced its focus on CIS, concentrating on memory products [4]. - Companies like ON Semiconductor, Teledyne, and STMicroelectronics have seen revenue declines due to slowdowns in industrial and medical markets, as well as reduced design orders in consumer electronics [4]. - Despite trade tensions, the CIS sector remains resilient due to the adoption of mature nodes, with domestic demand and government support bolstering production in China [4]. Technological Innovations - The CIS industry is evolving through innovations that enhance performance, integration, and sensing capabilities, including higher signal-to-noise ratios, improved low-light sensitivity, compact designs, and lower power consumption [7]. - Sony's three-layer stacked sensors are being adopted in mainstream smartphones, marking a shift towards intelligent sensing rather than just resolution [7]. - Advances in 22nm logic stacking technology aim for ultra-low power consumption and expanded computational capabilities, with FDSOI technology expected to be utilized for neuromorphic sensing [7]. Future Projections - By 2030, global CIS wafer capacity is projected to meet demand with a capacity of 638k wpm and a utilization rate of 72% [4]. - The industry is witnessing a transition towards multi-stacking architectures, with BSI (Backside Illumination) technology leading the way [8].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla has decided to switch its AI 6 vehicle chip production back to Samsung's 2nm foundry, with a significant contract worth $16.5 billion expected to be finalized by 2033, indicating a strategic shift in its semiconductor sourcing strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Switching to Samsung - Cost Efficiency: Samsung's improved yield rates at 3nm and anticipated advancements at 2nm make it a more cost-effective option compared to TSMC [2]. - Proximity and Control: Tesla's CEO Elon Musk highlighted the close location of Samsung's Texas facility, allowing for better oversight and collaboration on production improvements, which is less feasible with TSMC [3]. - Absence of Conflicts of Interest: Unlike Apple's relationship with Samsung, which involves competition, Samsung has not entered the electric vehicle or robotics market, allowing for a more favorable partnership with Tesla [3]. - Flexibility in Demands: Tesla's relatively small chip requirements compared to larger clients like Apple may allow for more favorable treatment from Samsung, as Musk's ambitious plans could lead to a more accommodating relationship [4]. - Risk Diversification: By engaging multiple foundries for different generations of AI chips, Tesla aims to mitigate risks associated with production and supply chain disruptions [4].