Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.06%, S&P 500 futures down 0.02%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.03% [1] - European indices show mixed performance, with Germany's DAX down 0.43%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.39%, France's CAC40 down 0.11%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.22% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is up 0.37% at $65.53 per barrel, while Brent crude is up 0.36% at $67.28 per barrel [4] Economic Sentiment - Wall Street strategists remain optimistic about summer stock market performance despite signs of economic slowdown, with several institutions maintaining S&P 500 year-end targets in the range of 6300-6500 points [5] - A survey of over 270 CEOs indicates a significant drop in recession expectations, with less than 30% anticipating a mild or severe recession in the next six months, down from 46% in May [5] - The New York Fed's consumer expectations survey shows a notable decline in inflation concerns, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.2% in May, down 0.4 percentage points from April [7] Company News - Apple held its WWDC, showcasing significant updates across its software platforms, including a new "liquid glass" design and the introduction of iOS 26 [10] - Tesla saw a massive inflow of $651 million into its leveraged ETF, reflecting strong retail investor confidence despite ongoing challenges, including competition in the Chinese market and demand issues in developed markets [11] - TSMC reported a 39.6% year-over-year increase in May revenue, attributed to companies stockpiling chips amid geopolitical uncertainties, although there was an 8.3% month-over-month decline [12] - Novo Nordisk's stock rose as activist hedge fund Parvus increased its stake, with expectations for the obesity drug market to reach $95 billion by 2030 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The global wafer foundry industry is experiencing a seasonal revenue decline of approximately 5.4%, reaching $36.4 billion in Q1 2025, influenced by the U.S. tariff policy and China's old-for-new subsidy program [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - According to TrendForce, the global wafer foundry industry is expected to see a revenue decrease of about 5.4% in Q1 2025, totaling $36.4 billion, due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and the advance stocking effect before the expiration of tariff exemptions [1]. - The overall industry revenue is being supported by China's continuation of the old-for-new subsidy policy, which mitigates some seasonal impacts [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - TSMC maintains the top position with a market share of 67.6%, reporting a revenue of $25.5 billion, a 5% decrease due to the smartphone inventory seasonality, partially offset by stable AI HPC demand and urgent orders from television manufacturers [4]. - Samsung, ranked second, faced an 11.3% revenue decline to $2.89 billion, with a market share slightly decreasing to 7.7%, affected by U.S. advanced process restrictions on Chinese customers [4]. - SMIC, in third place, benefited from customers' advance stocking due to U.S. tariffs and China's subsidy policy, resulting in a 1.8% revenue increase to $2.25 billion [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - TrendForce anticipates that as the advance stocking driven by tariffs concludes, overall momentum will gradually slow down. However, the continuation of China's old-for-new subsidy policy, along with the upcoming smartphone launches and stable AI HPC demand, is expected to drive capacity utilization and shipments in Q2 [5]. - The top ten wafer foundry companies are projected to see a revenue increase in Q2 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue experiencing a disparity in demand, with AI-related products leading the market while broader product demand may not recover until the second half of 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Semiconductor Market Trends - The semiconductor market size for Q1 2023 was $167.6 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 19%, driven by high-demand chips for generative AI [5]. - TSMC's sales increased by 42% in Q1 2023, with high-performance computing (HPC) semiconductors making up 59% of total sales, up from 46% year-on-year [6]. - Demand for mature products, such as those used in smartphones and PCs, remains weak, with Samsung's semiconductor division only growing by 9% in Q1 2023, a significant slowdown from the previous quarter [7]. Group 2: NAND Flash Market Dynamics - Kioxia Holdings has begun to reduce NAND supply due to decreased demand, but expects NAND market conditions to improve starting in the second half of 2025 [9]. - Global NAND prices fell by 13% to 18% in Q1 2025 but are projected to rise by 3% to 8% in Q2 2025, indicating a potential recovery in demand [9]. - Smartphone manufacturers may increase demand for memory chips if the pace of price declines slows, aided by government subsidies in China to boost smartphone purchases [9]. Group 3: Automotive and Industrial Demand - Demand for automotive and industrial semiconductors is not expected to recover until after 2026, with companies like Renesas Electronics adjusting production timelines due to slowing EV growth [10][11]. - The average net profit for major automotive and industrial companies in Japan, the US, and Europe is projected to decrease by about 10% in 2025, but is expected to rebound by 31% in 2026 [12]. Group 4: Semiconductor Equipment and Supply Chain - Semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales in Japan grew by 18.2% year-on-year, driven by ongoing demand for AI-related semiconductors [16]. - However, investment in China has begun to slow, with companies previously rushing to invest in the Chinese market now seeing a decline in sales [16]. - The demand for electronic components, particularly those for AI data centers, remains strong, with companies like Murata Manufacturing expecting robust demand for multi-layer ceramic capacitors [17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The expansion of AI applications is anticipated to drive demand for high-performance semiconductors in smartphones, PCs, and automotive sectors [18]. - Companies are focusing on improving quality and production efficiency to mitigate risks associated with potential declines in demand due to tariffs and other uncontrollable factors [18].

Group 1 - Gree Electric has achieved a significant milestone with approximately 30% of its air conditioning products utilizing self-developed chips, which are also applied in commercial air conditioning, smart equipment, and industrial robots [1] - TSMC's construction plans for new factories in Japan and Germany may face adjustments due to supply chain issues and underperformance in local market demand, particularly in the automotive sector [1] - Shanghai Hanke Technology has signed a contract to establish a high-purity process system R&D and smart manufacturing base in Songjiang, focusing on advanced technology development and intelligent production [1] Group 2 - The global wafer foundry industry is experiencing a seasonal revenue decline of about 5.4% in Q1 2025, attributed to preemptive inventory buildup and the continuation of China's old-for-new subsidy policy, resulting in a total revenue of approximately $36.4 billion [1]

TSMC (2330.TW/TSM) Risk/reward now skewed to the upside June 2025 Bruce Lu Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taiwan 886-2-2730-4185 bruce.lu@gs.com For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, go to https://research.gs.com and https://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 Improving sentiment with limited earnings downside Supply chain mismatch mitigated; AI order cut now seems less likely Limited earnings downside from here 70 118 322 585 923 1,287 69% 173% 82% 58% 200% 18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global wafer foundry market revenue is expected to decline by approximately 5.4% quarter-on-quarter to $36.4 billion in Q1 2025, influenced by international market conditions and preemptive inventory stocking by various manufacturers [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The overall wafer foundry market revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to be $36.4 billion, down from $38.5 billion in Q4 2024 [2] - TSMC remains the market leader with a revenue of $25.5 billion and a market share of 67.6%, despite a 5% decline from the previous quarter [2][4] - Samsung's foundry revenue decreased by 11.3% to $2.89 billion, resulting in a market share drop to 7.7% [4] - SMIC's revenue increased by 1.8% to $2.25 billion, with a market share rise to 6% [4] - UMC's revenue fell by 5.8% to $1.76 billion, maintaining a market share of 4.7% [4] - GlobalFoundries experienced a significant revenue drop of 13.9% to $1.58 billion, with a market share of 4.2% [4] Group 2: Company Performance - Huahong Group's revenue decreased by 3% to $1.01 billion, with a market share of 2.7% [5] - VIS saw a revenue increase of 1.7% to $363 million, achieving a market share of 1% [5] - Tower Semiconductor's revenue declined by 7.4% to $358 million, with a market share of 0.9% [5] - Nexchip's revenue grew by 2.6% to $353 million, maintaining a market share of 0.9% [5] - PSMC's revenue decreased by 1.8% to $327 million, with a market share of 0.9% [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The second quarter is expected to see a slowdown in momentum as the preemptive inventory stocking due to tariffs concludes, but the continuation of China's trade-in subsidy policy and upcoming smartphone launches are anticipated to drive demand [5]

Group 1 - The market is recognizing that artificial intelligence spending is structural rather than cyclical, which is a significant shift in perception [1] - Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) is currently priced at a mid-20s earnings multiple despite its strong conversion capabilities in the AI sector [1] - The article highlights the author's expertise in AI and machine learning, indicating a deep understanding of the industry dynamics [1] Group 2 - The author has a beneficial long position in TSM shares, suggesting confidence in the company's future performance [1]

Core Insights - The global wafer foundry industry is expected to see a revenue decline of approximately 5.4% in Q1 2025, totaling $36.4 billion, influenced by international market conditions and seasonal factors [2][3] - The second quarter is anticipated to show revenue growth for the top ten foundries, driven by China's old-for-new subsidy policy, pre-launch inventory for new smartphone models, and stable demand for AI HPC [2] Company Performance - TSMC remains the market leader with a revenue of $25.5 billion in Q1 2025, a decrease of 5% quarter-over-quarter, holding a market share of 67.6% [3][4] - Samsung's foundry revenue fell by 11.3% to $2.89 billion, with a market share of 7.7%, primarily due to weak mobile chip demand and ongoing inventory adjustments [5] - SMIC reported a revenue increase of 1.8% to $2.25 billion, benefiting from customer pre-orders and domestic consumption subsidies, ranking third in the industry [6] - UMC's revenue decreased by 5.8% to $1.76 billion, maintaining its fourth position, with stable wafer shipments offsetting seasonal impacts [6] - GlobalFoundries experienced a revenue decline of 13.9% to $1.58 billion, while HuaHong Group ranked sixth with stable performance [7] - Vanguard's revenue increased by 1.7% to $363 million, moving up to seventh place, while Tower's revenue decreased by 7.4% to $358 million [7] - Nexchip's revenue grew by 2.6% to $353 million, ranking ninth, while PSMC's revenue slightly decreased by 1.8% to $327 million, placing it tenth [8] Market Trends - TSMC's advanced process technologies, particularly in AI and HPC, are driving revenue growth, with 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm processes contributing 73% of wafer sales [4] - AI chip demand is projected to be a significant growth driver for TSMC, with a forecasted 100% increase in AI accelerator chip sales in 2025 [4] - SMIC anticipates a revenue decline of 4% to 6% in Q2 2025, indicating a challenging market environment ahead [6]

Core Insights - The global wafer foundry industry experienced a 5.4% quarter-over-quarter decline in total revenue for Q1 2025, amounting to $36.403 billion, but showed a significant year-over-year growth of 24.8% [1] - The traditional seasonal slowdown in the wafer foundry industry was somewhat mitigated this year due to uncertainties in international conditions prompting downstream customers to stock up inventory and China's ongoing trade-in policy [1] Industry Performance - Despite facing seasonal challenges, the wafer foundry industry demonstrated resilience, with expectations for revenue growth in Q2 2025 driven by the launch of new smartphone models and stable demand from AI and HPC sectors [4] - The top ten global wafer foundries accounted for 97% of the market share in Q1 2025, with a total revenue of $36.403 billion [2] Company Rankings - TSMC led the market with a revenue of $25.517 billion in Q1 2025, despite a 5.0% decline from Q4 2024, maintaining a market share of 67.6% [2] - Samsung's revenue fell by 11.3% to $2.893 billion, resulting in a market share of 7.7% [2] - SMIC reported a slight revenue increase of 1.8% to $2.247 billion, raising its market share to 6.0% [2] - Vanguard's capacity utilization was above average due to customer stockpiling, while Tower Semiconductor faced significant seasonal impacts and did not benefit from China's subsidy policies [4]

Group 1 - The global wafer foundry industry experienced a recovery in Q1 2025, despite being a traditional off-season, driven by strong downstream stocking demand and China's subsidy policy for trade-in programs [1][2] - TrendForce reported that the revenue of global wafer foundries in Q1 2025 was approximately $36.4 billion, reflecting a decrease of about 5.4% compared to the previous quarter [1] - The top ten wafer foundries are expected to see revenue growth in Q2 2025, supported by ongoing demand from AI HPC and the launch of new smartphone models [2] Group 2 - TSMC maintained a leading market share of 67.6% in Q1 2025, with revenue of $25.5 billion, a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5% [4] - SMIC benefited from early stocking by customers and China's consumption subsidies, achieving a revenue increase of 1.8% to $2.25 billion, ranking third [4] - Other foundries like Huahong and Hefei Jinghe also reported revenue growth due to urgent orders, with Huahong's revenue remaining stable at approximately $1.01 billion [5]